Public Enemies
By Kevin Rogers
A huge part of handicapping is trying to find where the public is betting, and the times to go against it. This article is not aimed at who are the biggest public plays, but teams that made such large impacts the week before to the betting masses. All season long, I'll keep bettors alerted on the teams to maybe take a second look at before taking a game because, "It looks too easy." Here are three games to watch out for this week.
Louisiana Tech at Navy (-7½) - 3:30 PM EST
The Midshipmen made plenty of headlines this past week by losing at Ohio State, 31-27. Navy covered as 23-point road underdogs, but had a chance to tie the game in the final minutes and failed on a two-point conversion. Navy owns one of the top rushing games in the nation, thanks to the triple-option offense. The Midshipmen rushed for 186 yards, but surprisingly threw for 156 yards. Last season, Navy tallied triple-digits in passing in just two games, a loss at Duke and a win over Temple.
The Bulldogs were run all over by Auburn in a 37-13 setback. Louisiana Tech allowed 301 rushing yards to the Tigers, while giving up 5.8 yards a carry. Last season, the Bulldogs did a nice job shutting down the run, with opposing offenses amassing an average of 104 yards a game. Derek Dooley's squad is 3-8 ATS since 2007 as a road underdog, and 5-22 ATS as an away 'dog since 2004.
Bowling Green at Missouri (-18) - 7:00 PM EST
Both these teams are coming off outright underdog victories in the opening week. Missouri surprised Illinois in St. Louis, 37-9, as the Tigers put up 442 yards. There were plenty of questions surrounding Gary Pinkel's offense, following the loss of QB Chase Daniel and WR Jeremy Maclin to the NFL. However, sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert torched the Illini defense for 319 yards and three touchdown tosses. Mizzou is just 13-13 ATS since 2004 as a home favorite, but 6-3 ATS in that role against non-conference opponents.
The Falcons shocked last season's Sun Belt champion Troy, 31-14. The Trojans built an early 14-0 lead, before Bowling Green scored 31 unanswered points the rest of the way. The Falcons didn't do much on the ground (50 yards), but QB Tyler Sheehan picked apart the Troy defense by throwing for 339 yards and a touchdown. Bowling Green has been a solid play on the road the last three seasons, going 9-4 ATS when getting points on the highway.
BYU (-17½) at Tulane - 10:15 PM EST
The Cougars shocked many people with their upset over previously third-ranked Oklahoma on Saturday, 14-13. BYU won outright as 23-point underdogs, but were also helped out by the injury to OU's Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Sam Bradford. BYU outgained Oklahoma by nearly 100 yards (357-265), but the Cougars turned the ball over four times.
The Green Wave was embarrassed by conference-rival Tulsa in their opener last Friday, 37-13. Tulane amassed 325 yards through the air, but rushed for only 39 yards. Tulane's rush defense was scorched by the Golden Hurricane ground attack, with Tulsa racking up 201 yards on the ground.
Tulsa closed as a 14-point road favorite, and with BYU giving three to four more points, one has to wonder if that number is too low, and if the Cougars should be laying closer to three touchdowns? Tulane owned one of the worst rush defenses last season, but BYU ran for 28 yards on 33 carries against Oklahoma. Advantage, Tulane? Perhaps it's something else to factor in when handicapping this game.
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