Public Enemies - Week 3
By Kevin Rogers
Perception is reality at times, but then again the oddsmakers find a way to fool the gambling public. USC and Tennessee both did not cover as their respective lines were steamed prior to game-time, while the Vols lost straight-up to UCLA. With two weeks done, we're trying to figure things out, as several teams either look too easy, or make us scratch our heads seeing the lines this week. Four games are featured in this week's edition of "Public Enemies."
Eastern Michigan at Michigan (-24) - 12:00 PM EST
Rich Rodriguez's club is back in the Top 25 after beating Notre Dame in the Big House on Saturday. Michigan gave away an 11-point lead twice to the Irish, while allowing 490 yards, but still pulled out a 38-34 victory. The Wolverines won three games last season, and already sit at 2-0, hosting Eastern Michigan.
The Eagles haven't looked good out of the gate, dropping a home contest to Army, while covering as a road 'dog in a loss at Northwestern. EMU's numbers were very close to Northwestern in Saturday's 27-24 setback, as the Eagles were outgained 343-320. Eastern Michigan was disappointing in the opening week loss to Army, allowing 300 yards rushing to the Black Knights.
VI capper Joe Nelson says, "Obviously this will be a huge game for EMU head coach Ron English, a former defensive coordinator for Lloyd Carr at Michigan. Eastern played well against a good offensive team from the Big Ten in Northwestern last week in a game that was very even statistically." Nelson also points to a potential letdown for the Wolverines, "With an inflated line, a lot of extra praise and attention following a big win, and the Big Ten opening homecoming game up next against Indiana, this could be a tough spot for Michigan to cover, even if Eastern Michigan does not look like a viable team this season."
The Wolverines are 1-6 ATS under Rodriguez as a favorite, with the lone victory coming against Western Michigan two weeks ago. The Eagles are 3-6 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog of at least 18 points.
Wyoming at Colorado (-7) 2:00 PM EST
The Buffaloes are in the same spot as UTEP, sitting at 0-2, and favored. Colorado, though, has the luxury of playing at Folsom Field. The Buffs have a rough road coming up after Wyoming, as CU travels to West Virginia and Texas, then hosts Kansas. Dan Hawkins' defense allowed 624 yards in a 54-38 blowout loss at Toledo last Friday.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, hung around with Texas for a half, but then got blasted by the Longhorns, 41-10. Wyoming covered as 34-point home 'dogs, but the Cowboys are 5-18-1 ATS since the start of 2007. What makes things worse, the 'Boys are 1-7 ATS the last three seasons on the road.
Bowling Green (-2 ½) at Marshall - 7:00 PM EST
The Falcons have turned plenty of heads the first two weeks, knocking off reigning Sun Belt Champion Troy, then covered as a road 'dog at Missouri. Bowling Green blew a 13-0 at Mizzou, as the Tigers outscored the Falcons 27-7 the final 38 minutes of the game. The statistics in both contests have seen Bowling Green stay close in the offensive department with their first two opponents. However, the Falcons may be in a prime look-ahead spot, hosting Boise State next week.
Marshall has been less than impressive so far, edging Southern Illinois, 31-28, before getting blown out at Virginia Tech, 52-10. The Thundering Herd allowed 444 rushing yards to the Hokies, while getting thoroughly manhandled in Blacksburg.
The Herd owns a 6-2-1 ATS mark as a home 'dog under Mark Snyder, covering against Tulsa and Houston last season. The Falcons were a perfect 7-0 ATS last season on the road, while covering all four as a road favorite.
UTEP (-13 ½) at New Mexico State - 8:00 PM EST
It's tough to remember the last time an 0-2 team was nearly a two-touchdown road favorite. Actually, it was 1999 when TCU laid 16 points at Arkansas State, only to win the game, 24-21. There were three other occasions when an 0-2 club was 'chalk' over this time frame, going 1-2 ATS (Mississippi State lost at Houston, 42-35 in 2003 as 4 ½-point favorites; Rutgers fell at Navy, 23-21 in 2008 as 6-point favs; Toledo won at Eastern Michigan, 42-32 in 2004 as 9 ½-point 'chalk').
Mike Price's Miners aren't rolling by any stretch, dropping a 23-17 home decision to Buffalo, before getting blown out by Kansas, 34-7. By the way, UTEP was in a similar spot last season, starting 0-2 and favored against New Mexico State. The Aggies beat the Miners in El Paso, 34-33, as 7-point underdogs.
The Aggies haven't been convincing either, losing at home to Idaho, 21-6. New Mexico State did bounce back against Prarie View A&M, 21-18, but that isn't saying much for DeWayne Walker's program. The only positive that came out of the Prarie View win was the 241 yards on the ground for the Aggies.
Nelson points to the geography in this game playing a factor, "This is a much bigger rivalry than most outside the region probably realize as these teams are less than an hour drive apart and the last three meetings have all been decided by six points or less, giving some credence to backing the dog."
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