Red Flags on the Horizon
By Bruce Marshall
The Gold Sheet
While many handicappers spent a lot of time trying to identify hot teams ready to go on point-spread win streaks, just as much attention ought to be paid to teams on the opposite end of the spectrum. Identifying teams in what could be the early stages of extended point-spread downturns can prove just as profitable. Fortunately, each college football season provides us with several opportunities to jump on board (or, is it jump off board?).
Here are some early trouble situations that could provide a lot of "go against" wagering opportunities in the coming weeks.
Washington State... We're still not sure the Cougars could be quite as bad as they were in 2008, when they redefined the word awful while allowing more points (570!) than any team in college football history. But early indicators are that the Cougs could indeed be just as wretched as a year ago, as early lopsided losses vs. modest Stanford and Hawaii sides has seen Wazzu already allowing a healthy 39 PPG after just two games. And it certainly could have been uglier last week in Seattle vs. the visiting Warriors from Honolulu, who bolted to a 35-0 lead before halftime and called off the dogs as the game turned into garbage time before the half. When the dust (or tire rubber?) settled at Qwest Field, Hawaii had rolled up a staggering 626 yards of offense...and remember that HC June Jones departed two years ago. Hawaii QB Greg Alexander could have possibly thrown for 700 yards if he wished, settling instead for a more-modest 453 yards through the air. Already, Cougar backers are wondering what they've gotten themselves into with 2nd-year HC Paul Wulff, an alumnus a star lineman for some of Dennis Erickson's teams in the late '80s ad more recently the HC at Eastern Washington. Pac-10 sources report that predecessor Bill Doba didn't exactly leave a full cupboard, but the manner of Wazzu's helplessness suggests there are other negative factors at work. No team, they argue, should be this bad, or as helpless on defense as the Cougs. There will be temptation to humanely end the Wulff regime if things don't improve soon, and revelations of rules violations against Wulff while at EWU have given his growing list of detractors even further ammunition.
New Mexico... We wrote about UNM's mounting problems last week. But already there are a growing legion of Lobo supporters that are thinking new coach Mike Locksley, most recently the offensive coordinator at Illinois, is in way over his head in Albuquerque. Locksley's credentials are a bit dubious, as his Illinois offense was rather disappointing last season, with his reputation developed mostly from that magical 2007 campaign in Champaign-Urbana when QB Juice Williams provided the ammunition for the Illini. Williams, however, might have regressed in his disappointing junior year, lending some Lobo followers to wonder what sort of other reasons might have justified Locksley's hire. It certainly couldn't have been his ties in the Mountain West, because Locksley had spent exactly one season of his career coaching west of the Mississippi River, long ago with the University of Pacific's now-defunct gridiron program in Stockton. Locksley's detractors have further ammunition after the first two weeks of the new season, as the Lobos have yet to score an offensive touchdown under this supposed "spread" guru. But Locksley's version of the no-huddle spread is certainly not unique these days, and his QB, Donovan Porterie, looks ill-suited to his role as Locksley's offensive pilot, lacking mobility after last year's knee injury. Besides, Locksley detractors remind us, there wasn't much strategizing involved in the Illinois version of the spread, with the ability of "Juice" to improvise providing most of the fireworks. Moreover, Locksley dismantled all of previous HC Rocky Long's defensive staff. There would be no more of the unique blitzing, twisting, and stunting 3-3-5 that was a trademark of Long's teams, most of which made bowls in recent years. Instead, Locksley brought in Doug Mallory, almost run out of Baton Rouge after a disappointing stint as Les Miles' d.c. last season. All Mallory's new-look 4-3 has done is get torched by Texas A&M & Tulsa, allowing 43 PPG and almost 1100 yards the first two weeks. Throw in the harassment charge Locksley was slapped with by a Lobo athletic department employee shortly after his hiring, and you get the idea that things have quickly gone terribly wrong in Loboland.
Ball State... Some MAC sources suspected that the Cardinals could be in for a big drop-off after HC Brady Hoke abandoned ship before last January's GMAC Bowl and took the San Diego State job. Instead of looking outside the program for an inspired hire as Hoke was a few years ago, the school decided to promote from within and elevated offensive coordinator Stan Parrish to the top spot. This is the same Parrish that did coach at Marshall in the '80s but is more remembered for a disastrous 2-30-1 three-year stint at Kansas State before Bill Snyder rode into Manhattan to save the day. We have to ask if the Ball State athletic department bothered to check into Parrish's past performance before making this hire, which at the moment looks to be an ill-advised one after an opening upset loss vs. previously woebegone North Texas (at Muncie, no less), then getting throttled at home by FCS member New Hampshire, which held the Cardinals to a measly 13 yards rushing and paltry 127 total yards in a 23-16 win...also at Muncie. Thus, Parrish's "new" Cardinal offense has been flummoxed, at home, by North Texas and New Hampshire out of the gate. An improved Army and generally upgraded MAC slate still await, and Cardinal fans are already restless and wistfully recalling the days if Hoke and graduated QB Nate Davis. The drop from near the top of the MAC to apparently near the bottom should not have happened so fast (unless, that is, Hoke absolutely knew what he was doing when abandoning town after last season).
Other possible early go-against situations:
Colorado...What has happened to the Buffalo defense? The heat has been turned way up on HC Dan Hawkins after CU's slow early start that has included losses vs. Colorado State and Toledo, which figured as routine wins by most Buff fans. Florida State... It's looking more and more like this could be Bobby Bowden's last year in charge of the Seminoles. Preordained successor Jimbo Fisher is already on staff, and it's worth noting that the Noles were actually trailing Jacksonville State by a 9-7 count deep into the 4th Q of last Saturday's game at Doak Campbell Stadium. Kansas State... Bill Snyder's return to the sidelines has been anything but smooth, as first the Wildcats were life-and-death with FCS UMass, then knocked out for the count at UL-Lafayette. This week, there's a re-energized UCLA before Big XII play begins soon after. Is Snyder wondering why he came out of retirement to take this job? Marshall... Another Snyder, this one Mark, is also having some indigestion these days by watching his team play. In Mark's case, it's his Thundering Herd bunch that almost lost vs. FCS Southern Illinois in the opener and was routed 52-10 last week by Virginia Tech. Some CUSA observers have alerted us to keep an eye on this situation, as a loss this week vs. Bowling Green could put the handwriting on the wall for Snyder, and sources wouldn't be surprised to see the situation unravel thereafter. New Mexico State... New HC DeWayne Walker has his first win, but we can't imagine anyone in Las Cruces is thrilled about a 21-18 escape vs. lowly SWAC entry Prairie View. Walker has disappointed some WAC observers with his insistence on developing a smash-mouth mentality for NMSU, which many observers believe is a sure recipe for failure in Aggieland.