Schedule Analysis
By Brian Edwards
Without a playoff system in college football, there’s no sport in which scheduling is more important in terms of the national-championship race. Back in the 1990s, former Florida coach Steve Spurrier often bemoaned the fact that FSU and Miami had better chances to win it all compared to UF due to their cupcake conference slates in the ACC and Big East, respectively.
As usual, the Ball Coach had it right. Back then, the SEC teams beat up on each other all year and then had to win a league championship game. Even then, a one-loss team that won the SEC would usually be left out of the title mix.
Things have changed quite a bit since the ‘90s, however. For starters, the ACC expanded with the additions of Va. Tech, Boston College and Miami. Obviously, this made the ACC a better league and allowed the conference to break into divisions and have a championship game.
These days it’s the Big Ten and Pac 10 that are seemingly behind the times. Without a conference championship game, schools with one loss from the Big Ten and Pac 10 don’t have that early-December opportunity to notch a huge victory to pad their resume and get into the BCS Championship Game.
Last season was a classic example. With one loss apiece, Oklahoma and Florida were sent to Miami ahead of USC and Ohio St. Once the Gators knocked off unbeaten and top-ranked Alabama and the Sooners put a 62-spot up on 19th-ranked Missouri, there wasn’t even much discussion of who deserved to be in South Florida.
In 2007, we had a twice-beaten LSU team come from out of the SEC to win it all. That was made possible by an SEC Championship Game win over Tennessee just a week after losing at home in triple overtime to Arkansas.
Scheduling is certainly not an exact science. On one hand, schools want to schedule opponents tough enough for victories to be considered quality. On the flip side, slates have to be manageable enough to weather with enough healthy bodies remaining.
Let’s take a look at some notable schedules that will impact the national-title race, while also examining specific spots that gamblers should be wary of. We’ll begin our discussion in the Big Ten.
With the exception of Wisconsin and Illinois, every team in the Big Ten plays its 12 games consecutively without an open date. The Badgers play seven straight weeks before their bye week is sandwiched between home games against Iowa and Purdue. They close the regular season at Hawaii in a late-night contest to follow a day of championship games.
As for Ron Zook’s team, it is the only Big Ten school with a “normal” schedule. That’s to say the Illini have a pair of open dates to get fresh before key road tilts. After taking on Missouri and Illinois St. in Weeks 1 and 2, Illinois gets a breather on Sep. 19 to prep for the following week’s conference opener at Ohio St.
On Nov. 21, the Illini are off after hosting Northwestern. Then on Friday, Nov. 27, Illinois plays at Cincinnati before its regular-season finale vs. Fresno St. With games against the Bearcats and Bulldogs, in addition to a neutral-field season opener against Missouri, the Illini certainly have the toughest non-conference slate of all Big Ten schools.
I like Penn St. to win the Big Ten and its schedule is one of the main reasons why. The Nittany Lions’ four non-conference games are at home against scrub squads like Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. Joe Paterno’s team gets its toughest game (vs. Ohio St.) in Happy Valley.
After going to Southern California to face USC last season, the Buckeyes will host the Trojans in Week 2 this year. They have only four true road games in 2009 and will probably be favored in three of those with the potential exception being the Nov. 7 trip to Penn St.
I feel like the third, fourth and fifth-best teams in the Big Ten will be Iowa, Illinois and Michigan St. If the Lions and/or Bucks falter, any of these three schools could capitalize like the Illini did in getting to the Rose Bowl in 2007.
With that said, the Hawkeyes don’t get any favors from how their schedule sets up. They have to go on the road to face Penn St., Wisconsin, Michigan St. and Ohio St. The Spartans get PSU and Iowa at home, but they go on the road to take on Notre Dame, Wisky, Illinois and Minnesota.
I touched on some SEC scheduling issues a few weeks back and will pile on some more here. By SEC standards, Florida’s schedule sets up beautifully. When the conference expanded the schedule to eight games earlier this decade, it gave each school one constant non-divisional foe while the other five non-division teams would rotate on and off schedules in two-year stretches.
Therefore, the Gators’ 2009 slate has UF missing Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn from the West division, instead playing Arkansas and Mississippi St. Florida plays LSU every year and will take on the Bayou Bengals in Baton Rouge on Oct. 10.
But even UF’s toughest game of the year sets up nicely. LSU plays at Georgia prior to taking on the Gators, while they get an open date before making the trek to Tiger Stadium. In non-conference play, UF hosts Charleston Southern, Troy, FIU and FSU.
Georgia opens up in Stillwater at Oklahoma St. The Dawgs also host Arizona St. and play at Ga. Tech in non-conference action. They host South Carolina in Week 2. The Gamecocks will be coming off a season-opening road trip to N.C. St. for a Thursday night showdown.
The Gene Chizik Era at Auburn begins with four straight home games, including a return visit from West Virginia in Week 3. The Tigers will be looking to avenge a 34-17 loss in Morgantown from 2008.
As I’ve said several times in recent weeks, the SEC West looks like a three-team race between Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU. The Rebels get the Tide and the Tigers in Oxford, but let’s not forget that Houston Nutt’s (new) team has never been to the Georgia Dome for the SEC Championship Game. Every other western-division school has, while Vandy, Kentucky and South Carolina have been shut out of Atlanta from the East.
Unlike last season when USC had its toughest games at home, the Trojans have to hit the road a bunch this year. They have to go to Ohio St., Cal, Notre Dame, Oregon and Arizona St. On the bright side, USC closes the regular season with three straight home games versus Stanford, UCLA and Arizona.
Jeff Tedford’s Bears play their lid-lifter at home vs. Maryland. Remember, Cal went into College Park for a noon Eastern game last year and got throttled by a 35-27 count in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. In Week 3, Cal has to fly east to challenge Minnesota and also is on the road the following week at Oregon.
Is there a national-title contender in the ACC? Ask me after Va. Tech and ‘Bama throw down in the ATL. Frank Beamer’s team has other challenging non-conference tilts, including a Sep. 19 game vs. Nebraska in Blacksburg. Also, the Hokies will be out for revenge in a Nov. 5 trip to East Carolina. They only have six games at Lane Stadium, however, and if V-Tech makes the ACC Championship Game, it will play eight total games outside of Blacksburg. That’s not a national-title recipe from a scheduling perspective.
Texas had a two-year series with Ohio St. in 2005 and ’06, but you’ll find no such non-conference heavyweights on its 2009 slate. The Longhorns host ULM, UTEP and UCF, while going on the road to take on Wyoming. Mack Brown’s team will have its season determined by a three-week stretch from Oct. 17-31. It begins in Dallas vs. OU before back-to-back road games against Missouri and Oklahoma St.
The Sooners open against Max Hall and the BYU Cougars in Arlington. They get a bye week before playing at Miami on Oct. 3. For those not familiar with South Florida weather in early October, I can assure you that it’s as intense as the heat in Norman in late August (if not worse).
Kansas could be a sleeper squad in the Big 12. The Jayhawks might be favored in each of their first six games, so it’s certainly conceivable that they could be unbeaten for a home game vs. Oklahoma on Oct. 24.
Finally, let’s mention a few non-BCS contenders that could make some noise. If BYU can find a way to shock Oklahoma in Week 1, the Cougars could be in business. That’s because they have several other opportunities to open eyes and each comes at home. FSU will come to Provo in Week 3, while BYU gets its two toughest Mountain West games (Utah and TCU) at home.
The Horned Frogs aren’t afraid to step out of conference, either. They go on the road to throw blows with a pair of ACC squads in Virginia and Clemson in Weeks 2 and 4, respectively. Gary Patterson’s team plays at BYU but gets to host the Utes.
Utah has won 14 straight games and will likely take a 16-game winning streak into Eugene to face the Ducks on Sep. 19. Give Oregon credit for giving the “mid-majors” a chance to represent at its expense. The Ducks open the year at Boise St.
Speaking of the Broncos, they get to play 13 regular-season games. Chris Petersen’s squad has six ‘non-Saturday’ games, including a Wednesday trip to Tulsa.
East Carolina should be the class of Conference USA with 16 total starters returning from a nine-win team that upset both Va. Tech and WVU in 2008. However, the non-conference slate is plenty challenging with trips to Morgantown and Chapel Hill, in addition to a Thursday home game vs. the revenge-minded Hokies.
Last but not least, let’s talk about the Troy Trojans, who have been one of my favorite teams to wager on over the last half-decade. Since 2004, Troy is 11-5 against the spread in 16 double-digit underdog situations. It will definitely have that role in a Week 2 trip to The Swamp, a spot in which the Gators could be looking ahead to hosting Tennessee the following week. The Trojans also have non-conference road games at Bowling Green and Arkansas.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Best non-conference games of 2009:
1-USC at Ohio St.
2-Alabama vs. Va. Tech (Ga. Dome in Atlanta)
3-Georgia at Oklahoma St.
4-Georgia at Ga. Tech
5-Oregon at Boise St.
Like 10 of the 12 teams from the Big Ten, Vandy’s regular-season schedule is composed of games in 12 consecutive weeks sans an open date.
Ga. Tech will face three SEC schools in non-conference play. The Yellow Jackets go to Starkville on Oct. 3, Music City on Oct. 31 and host UGA in their regular-season finale.
Spurrier says he thinks has a team “on the verge” in this Q+A with The State. The schedule won’t help Spurr Dog. According to Phil Steele’s magnificent magazine, the Gamecocks have the nation’s toughest schedule. FSU’s is ranked second, followed by Oklahoma, Mississippi St. and Minnesota.
As usual, Paul Finebaum of the Mobile Press-Register nailed it in this column about Alabama AD Mal Moore, who was a regular punching bag in this space before landing Nick Saban.
Just like UGA fifth-year senior QB Joe Cox doesn't really get a warm-up game for his first season as a starter since the Dawgs open at Oklahoma St., Washington QB Jake Locker doesn't have a chance to shake off the rust in his return to the lineup after missing most of last year with a shoulder injury. The Huskies, who went winless in 2008 and saw head coach Ty Willington pink slipped, open at home against LSU.
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