Season Win Totals
By Brian Edwards
This past week, a number of betting shops both offshore and in Las Vegas released season win totals for the 2010 college football season. With that in mind, this space is salivating at the prospects of placing wagers.
When looking at these sort of numbers, I want to find a 1 ½-game difference between my prediction for a team and the book’s number. For instance, if a school’s win total is 8 ½ and I have that team finishing 7-5, then I’m bullish on the ‘under.’ On the flip side, if the number is 8 ½ and I have that squad going 10-2, then I’m all about the ‘over.’
I found only three BCS schools that fit that criteria last season. I backed Alabama and Ga. Tech to go ‘over’ and Notre Dame to stay ‘under.’ All cashed easily and we’re looking for the same results this time around.
And why not go with the Yellow Jackets again? Paul Johnson’s squad has been saddled with eight ‘over’ (minus-120) as its number at Sportsbook.com. Ga. Tech lost three players to the NFL in RB Jonathan Dwyer, WR Demaryius Thomas and DE Derrick Morgan, but most of the nucleus is back on The Flats.
Most importantly, senior QB Josh Nesbitt returns for his third year in Johnson’s lethal flexbone attack. Nesbitt rushed for 18 touchdowns in 2009 and improved his touchdown-interception ratio to 10/5. Although Dwyer’s 1,395 yards and 14 rushing TDs are gone, Louisville transfer Anthony Allen is poised to carry a heavier load.
In his first year with the Yellow Jackets, Allen averaged 9.7 yards per carry and got into the end zone seven times (six rushing, one receiving). H-back Roddy White also returns after averaging 6.5 YPC in ’09.
On defense, 14 of Tech’s 17 leading tacklers from last season are back. Senior LB Brad Jefferson highlights this unit after garnering third-team All-ACC honors.
The Jackets have four tough road games that have the oddsmakers thinking 8-4. Those include trips to Chapel Hill, Clemson, Blacksburg and Athens. However, all of those games are winnable and I have G-Tech at 9-2 going into the game at Georgia. Just like in ’08, I have the Jackets winning between the hedges again (and perhaps handing Mark Richt his pink slip in the process).
My favorite ‘under’ on the board is for Michigan, which is listed at seven ‘under’ (minus-130) at Sportsbook.com. In recent years, we’ve seen the likes of Utah and Appalachian St. go into the Big House and win outright in Week 1, and it says here that Randy Edsall’s UConn bunch is poised to pull the same trick. The Huskies, who destroyed South Carolina at the PapaJohn’s.com Bowl, return eight starters on each side of the ball.
Like the Irish last season, the Wolverines have a head coach that’s on a boiling hot seat. Nothing has gone right for Rich Rodriguez since bolting Morgantown for Ann Arbor. There was drama galore from his previous job at West Va. that followed him to Michigan. Then he created his own internal soap opera by running off players and bringing the NCAA to town for practicing for too many hours.
Oh yeah, there’s also been this little issue with losses galore. Michigan has limped to an abysmal 8-16 record on R-Rod’s watch, including home L’s to Toledo, Illinois (by 25), Michigan St. (by 14), Northwestern, Penn St. (by 25), Purdue and Ohio St.
This space thinks Michigan will be 5-6 before its trip to The ‘Shoe for the regular-season finale against arch-rival Ohio St. R-Rod might get his pink slip before then just to ensure that he can’t save his job with an upset win over the Buckeyes. Whatever the case, this will be his last year in Ann Arbor and bettors will cash ‘under’ tickets.
Now let’s talk about South Carolina, which has a win total of seven ‘under’ (minus-120) at Sportsbook.com. With Florida, Georgia and Tennessee turning to new QBs in 2010, the SEC East suddenly looks like a wide-open division. The Gamecocks have fourth-year junior Stephen Garcia under center.
Garcia had an up-and-down campaign in his first full year as the starter. On the bright side, he had a 17/10 TD-INT ratio and stayed healthy for the entire season. However, he was entirely too mistake prone in losses to Tennessee and UConn. Steve Spurrier is looking for more consistency and has been clear during the offseason that Garcia still has a long way to go.
In fairness to Garcia, he hasn’t had quality protection from his offensive line or a productive rushing attack to give the offense balance. Maybe that changes this season with nine offensive starters back in the mix and the addition of Marcus Lattimore, a true freshman who many recruitniks named as the nation’s top prep RB last year.
There’s also sophomore WRs Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley, who combined for 77 receptions and more than 1,200 receiving yards as freshmen. Both are big targets who appear on the verge of big seasons. South Carolina also has one of the SEC's best TEs in Weslye Saunders, but he’s under investigation (along with UNC’s Marvin Austin and Alabama’s Marcell Dareus) for potential contact with an agent that could lead to a suspension or ineligibility.
During Spurrier’s tenure, the defense has consistently been among the SEC’s best. That won’t change this year with seven starters returning. Also, LB Rodney Paulk is back after tearing his ACL in a Week 1 victory at N.C. St. in 2009. The secondary is one of the nation’s best thanks to senior Chris Culliver, who is moving back to CB from safety, and sophomore corner Stephon Gilmore, who is a potential All-American with a bright future in the NFL.
I have South Carolina at 8-3 going into the regular-season finale at Clemson. The ‘Cocks will win crucial home games against Georgia and Arkansas, and they'll also sweep back-to-back road games at Kentucky and at Vandy.
My fourth play this year is Iowa to go ‘over’ 8 ½, but I’m not as high on this wager as my three others. That’s because Sportsbook.com is forcing bettors to lay minus-160 for ‘over’ bets (risk $160 to win $100). Although I have the Hawkeyes finishing 10-2, I don’t recommend this bet unless you just go real small (amount-wise) or find a better rate. In fact, I’d rather have the number at nine than 8 ½ if it gets us a more reasonable price.
Kirk Ferentz’s program is back after enduring a three-year stretch of mediocrity from 2005-2007. The Hawks went 11-2 last year and knocked off Ga. Tech by a 24-14 count at the Orange Bowl. They bring back six starters on offense and eight on defense.
The schedule sets up nicely for Iowa, which will play its three toughest Big Ten games (vs. PSU, vs. Wisconsin and vs. Ohio St.) at home. The non-conference slate also bodes well for an ‘over’ wager with three lay-ups at home (vs. Eastern Illinois, Iowa St. and Ball St.) and a trip to Arizona to face the Wildcats.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
With Alabama facing six opponents (yes, six!) that’ll be coming off open dates and Dareus’s status in question (for now), I think gamblers should proceed with heavy caution before backing the Tide to go ‘over’ 10 wins even though it does net a plus-120 return at Sportsbook.com (risk $100 to win $120 on 'over' bets).
Bettors should keep in mind that wagers on season win totals are for regular-season games only. Therefore, a win in a conference championship game will not factor into the equation. Remember, USC plays 13 regular-season games thanks to an NCAA rule that gives schools an extra game if it plays at Hawaii. The Trojans’ number is 9 ½ ‘over’ (minus-135) at Sportsbook.com.
It’s not a done deal yet, but it’s looking like Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli is going to land at Ole Miss and be its starter this year. Masoli, a first-team All Pac-10 choice after leading the Ducks to the Rose Bowl last season, was suspended for the 2010 campaign by Chip Kelly after being arrested in the spring. However, since Masoli has completed his undergrad work at Oregon, he can be eligible this year if he enrolls in a grad-school program that’s not offered in Eugene. That’s apparently the case in Oxford and with Jevan Snead going pro early, Houston Nutt needs a big-time QB bad. Masoli’s checkered past will draw scrutiny but the reality is that his presence will change everything for the Rebels, who should be favorites in their first five games before getting an open date ahead of a trip to Tuscaloosa.
Paul Finebaum of the Mobile Press-Register thinks it’s time for the SEC to give Vanderbilt the boot.
vegasinsider.com.