Situations to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
The Gold Sheet
With only 12 chances to capture winning and losing streaks throughout the college season, it behooves the shrewd handicapper to identify as many emerging team trends (both good and bad) as early as possible. Which means trying to latch onto those inevitable winning and losing skeins from the beginning of the campaign. Admittedly, impressions from first-week action are sometimes deceiving...but sometimes they're not. With that in mind, following are some possible "go with" and "go against" situations we're watching closely.
Army (potential go-with)...It's a bit premature to overreact to reports that West Point might have hit the bulls-eye with new coaching hire Rich Ellerson. Then again, maybe it's not. Sources who watched Ellerson's Cal Poly teams punch above their weight were not surprised at how crisp the Black Knights of the Hudson looked in their opening-week win at Eastern Michigan. Army's option ran as efficiently as it did when Ellerson was an assistant at the academy in the '90s, with QB Trent Steelman efficiently piloting a ground attack that gobbled 300 YR in the 27-14 win vs. EMU. RBs Patrick Mealy and Kingsley Ehie (for what it's worth, Army is the only program we ever recall with more than one "Kingsley" on its al-time roster; remember Kingsley Fink, a QB for West Point in the early '70s?) combined for 179 YR as Ellerson became the first West Point HC to win his opener since Bob Sutton in 1991.
Buffalo (potential go-with)...We wonder if we're too late to the party regarding the Bulls, who surprisingly emerged last season as MAC champions for shrewd HC Turner Gill. But with QB Drew Willy graduated and top RB James Starks lost for the season with injury, few believed Buffalo could prick up where it left off a year ago. And maybe the Bulls won't get back to the MAC title game, but they looked good as ever last Saturday at the Sun Bowl vs. UTEP, out-executing the favored Miners en route to a 23-17 upset win. New starting QB Zach Maynard was efficient at the Sun Bowl, while RBs Brandon Thermilius & Mario Henry filled in admirably for Starks. Another winning season from the Bulls, and it will be even harder for the school to keep the impressive Gill in the fold.
Miami-Ohio (potential go-against)...The RedHawks really faded during the latter stages of Shane Montgomery's failed regime, sinking to non-competitive status by the time he was humanely dismissed following last season's 2-10 mess at Yager Stadium. And we're not sure new HC Mike Haywood is going to rock the "Cradle of Coaches" in the near future, either. The talent base eroded under Montgomery to the point Haywood inherited few impact performers on offense or defense. Moreover, beleaguered sr. Daniel Raudabaugh is the only experienced QB option Haywood has to lead the popgun attack. Some MAC sources have also openly questioned Haywood's desire to install a "smashmouth" offensive philosophy at Miami; although media sorts like to buy into that sort of b.s., more informed observers believe Haywood would be better served to implement a more creative and diverse attack similar to what Turner Gill has made work in Buffalo. Based upon results in the opener vs. Kentucky, Haywood doesn't have the sort of material to implement his style, and might be a couple of recruiting classes away from getting the RedHawks into position to contend again in the MAC.
New Mexico (potential go-against)...Say what you want about former HC Rocky Long, but at least his radical defensive schemes provided an identity for the Lobos, something New Mexico fans are wondering their team might lack under new HC Mike Locksley. More than a few MWC observers questioned Locksley's hiring, reckoning that he had virtually no experience west of the Mississippi River, and wondering if his recent accomplishments as the o.c. at Illinois were all that impressive. Locksley also didn't get off on the right foot in Albuquerque when getting hit with a harassment suit by a athletic department employee, then proceeded to gut the Long influence, bringing in a new d.c., Doug Mallory, who was effectively chased out of LSU last season and immediately junked Long's pet 3-3-5 for a more-traditional 4-3 look. All that "new" Mallory defense did was make Texas A&M QB Jerrod Johnson look like Colt McCoy as the Aggies rolled up 606 yards of offense in A&M's 41-6 opening night romp at College Station. Meanwhile, holdover QB Donovan Porterie looks an ill-fit for Locksley version of the spread, which was helped in Champaign-Urbana by Juice Willaims' escapability (of which the slow-footed Porterie, especially after knee problems, lacks).
New Mexico State (potential go-against)...Like Haywood at Miami-Ohio, new NMSU coach DeWayne Walker talked tough in the offseason, stressing the Aggies' new emphasis on a physical ground presence. WAC observers, however, are quick to remind that it's going to be difficult to recruit the sort of manpower to Las Cruces to make that style of offensive football work. Perhaps Walker's new, more-physical offense will eventually begin to dominate, but gaining just a tick over 3 ypc in the opener vs. Idaho's soft rush defense is an indicator of how far Walker's plan has to go before it works. By the way, NMSU lost to the Vandals, 21-6, hardly the sort of debut Aggie fans were expecting in Las Cruces.
North Texas (potential go-with)...The Mean Green has been down for so long that we hardly remember UNT's Sun Belt titles and New Orleans Bowl trips that were a regular occurrence earlier in the decade. But after a couple of desolate seasons under HC Todd Dodge (a former Texas Longhorn QB and HS coaching legend in the Metroplex at Southlake Carroll High) , UNT might be turning the corner now that HC Dodge's son Riley has emerged as the Mean Green's QB. The young Dodge, a decorated signal-caller for his dad at Carroll who shunned offers from Big XII schools to follow his papa to Denton, looked uncannily similar to another Southlake/Todd Dodge QB product, ex-Missouri and current Redskins QB Chase Daniel, in leading the Mean Green past Ball State in the opener. Riley Dodge effectively managed the game (something predecessor Giovanni Vizza couldn't do a year ago when running the UNT spread) and utilized an underrated pair of RBs in Cam Montgomery & Lance Dunbar to pace the win at Muncie. Moreover, young Dodge's ability to move the chains and clock will keep the UNT defense off the field longer than the past few seasons, when too many "3-and-outs" prevented the stop unit from getting necessary rest.
UAB (potential go-with)...Under the radar in Conference USA, the Blazers quietly covered their last three games of '08 and proceeded to pick up where they left off in the opener vs. Rice, rolling to a 44-24 win over the Owls at Legion Field. Dynamic QB Joe Webb could emerge as C-USA's most-dangerous weapon this season after passing for 221 yards and running for 194 more while accounting for 4 TDs in UAB's impressive win. Eighteen starters return from the '08 team that began to show some progress at the end of last season, and HC Neil Callaway has fortified the Blazer "D' with juco recruits. But it's the presence of the do-everything Webb that has us on a "UAB alert" this fall in C-USA.
Washington (potential go-with)...Pac-10 sources have long suspected that the Huskies were not as bad as they showed in recent campaigns under Ty Willingham, who admittedly coached in some bad luck when QB injuries effectively sabotaged each of his last three seasons in Seattle. Shrewd coast observers, however, also knew that Willingham was overrated and an ill-advised hire, and many believe there is no way that U-Dub would have gone winless last season had QB Jake Locker not been KO'd with a thumb injury in late September. With a healthy Locker and a new HC in Steve Sarkisian, a former BYU QB, Norm Chow/Pete Carroll disciple and Southern Cal offensive coordinator, things could begin to look up quickly in Seattle. An opening night competitive loss vs. visiting LSU indicates the Huskies won't be a pushover this season, and expect that long losing streak (now 15 games) to be put to the sword this week vs. Idaho.