The 2010 Hot Seat
The Gold Sheet
In a sense, all college football coaches are on the proverbial "hot seat" each season. Only a handful of mentors are insulated from ridicule and job concerns after even just one decidedly subpar campaign.
Still, it's not too hard to identify which coaches need to turn things around, and quickly, to keep their jobs...even if we're projecting ahead an entire calendar year. And after a relatively quiet season on the coaching change front (which was to be expected in the aftermath of a bloody post-2008, when 21 coaching changes occurred), it would be no surprise to see the coaching merry-go-round at full spin again next year. Following are the coaches we believe will be entering the 2010 season on especially "hot" seats.
Dennis Erickson, Arizona State...It's not just that the Sun Devils have missed the postseason two years running under Erickson, which is enough reason for concern. But the manner in which ASU has floundered the past two seasons is a particular bother to supporters in the Valley of the Sun, where the Sun Devils have not only been losing for two straight seasons, but have been decidedly dull in the process. And that's something that not even Erickson's staunchest critics could have imagined after he was hired three years ago. With his reputation as an offensive wizard taking a beating, Erickson wasted no time trying to alter the mix after the just-completed campaign, jettisoning o.c. Rich Olson. Erickson's new o.c. hire will be closely scrutinized in Tempe, because Devils fans will not want to waste another excellent defensive effort like the one delivered by this season's ASU stop unit. There was a ray of hope late in the season, however, when 6'8 frosh QB Brock Osweiler demonstrated considerable upside in limited late-season work before getting KO'd by injury. ASU fans are certainly crossing their fingers, realizing Osweiler could be the answer after senior Danny Sullivan proved not much more than a stop-gap QB solution in 2009.
Steve Roberts, Arkansas State...We have to wonder if fiscal concerns (which are more of an issue at some schools more than others) helped Roberts survive what was a highly disappointing 2009. A close loss at Iowa turned out to be the high point of a dismal 4-8 campaign that seemed to promise so much more with QB Corey Leonard & RB Reggie Arnold returning for their senior seasons. Instead, the Red Wolves endured numerous internal issues and dismissals, Leonard's benching and eventual season-ending knee injury, and 8 losses in 9 games before barely salvaging something from the campaign in narrow wins over Sun Belt bottom-feeders North Texas and Western Kentucky to finish the season. Leonard's successor at QB, frosh Ryan Alpin, was at least able to take a test drive through the final weeks of the season, and the OL will return in tact next fall, but six starters must be replaced from the defense.
Dan Hawkins, Colorado...A lot of Buff boosters were surprised that Hawkins was given one more year to turn things around in Boulder. There was no evidence of progress in the just-completed 3-9 season that began with ugly losses vs. underdog Colorado State and Toledo contingents (with CU looking particularly organized on defense vs. the latter during a national TV embarrassment in early September) and was spared further humiliation by a pair of extremely narrow home wins over Kansas (34-30) and Texas A&M (35-34). Hawkins even acknowledged his good fortune in holding on to his job for another year, but what he can really thank is his contract that would have called for a $3 million buyout, one the school (and an athletic department swimming in red ink) simply wasn't prepared to swallow. Moreover, once-ballyhooed RB Darrell Scott has decided to transfer, and the 2010 slate will include a visit by Georgia, only the second SEC team to ever travel to Boulder. At 16-33 with four consecutive losing seasons, Hawkins is not likely to be tossed another life-line by the administration next December. It's bowl of else for Hawkins and the Buffs in 2010.
Pat Hill, Fresno State... Although the 13-season Bulldog mentor was given a contract extension before FSU's New Mexico Bowl loss vs. Wyoming, sources say the "extension" wasn't much of one at all, just an extra year on a deal that was set to expire after 2010. More word from WAC sources is that Hill and the current administration at Fresno are not on the best of terms, and Hill has been said to be checking out job openings in the region, including the just-filled position (by Montana's Bobby Hauck) at UNLV. Fresno fans are getting just a bit anxious for the program to claim an outright WAC title, something it has yet to do on Hill's watch, and are said to be concerned not as much that Boise has left the Bulldogs in the WAC dust, but that Nevada has emerged as the Broncos' top challenger. Moreover, the nation's leading rusher this past season, RB Ryan Mathews, has already announced plans to enter next April's NFL Draft, and another tough Fresno non-league slate in 2010 includes a trip to Ole Miss as well as visits from back-to-back BCS bowler Cincinnati, as well as Illinois. Although sources still believe it is unlikely the school would dismiss Hill, a slip beneath .500 next season could change the equation.
Mark Richt, Georgia...Although it might be a bit presumptuous to put Richt in this list, there are some early indicators that 2010 could be a crossroads year in Athens. With Tim Tebow departing Florida, the Gators might be expected to fall back to the SEC East pack, and the Bulldogs will be expected to fare better than this season's 7-5 mark. Richt has already made staff changes, dismissing d.c. Willie Martinez and two other defensive assistants after the Bulldog stop unit sprang many leaks this past season. Georgia fans will also be looking for more offensive consistency and an upgrade at QB after senior Joe Cox blew hot-and-cold for much of 2009. It's also worth mentioning that Bulldog fans are still a bit chuffed about 2008, when many pegged Georgia as a possible national title contender, only to see the team rarely perform at that sort of level despite progressing to the Capital One Bowl, where Georgia beat Michigan State. This season, the Dawgs have been kicked all of the way to Shreveport and the Independence Bowl (vs. Texas A&M), not the sort of glamorous postseason destination Bulldogs fans have been used to in recent years.
Ron Zook, Illinois...The Fighting Illini have lost all of the momentum from their surprise Rose Bowl visit in 2007, slipping to a pair of sub-.500 seasons since, including the just-completed 3-9 campaign, and some Big Ten observers are surprised Zook is being given another chance by AD Ron Guenther to turn things around. Especially since sources say the Illini had the money available to facilitate a buyout. Regardless, Guenther (and others) have suggested that Zook rely a bit more on his assistants and stop being such a micro-manager. A clean sweep of much of the coaching staff followed the recent 3-9 disappointment, with new coordinators brought in for both the offense (Paul Petrino, from Arkansas) and defense (Vic Koenning, from Kansas State). A few Illini observers are wondering if Guenther might have Petrino (considered an up-and-comer) in mind as a possible successor to Zook, although that might create quite an awkward situation next fall. Regardless, the new offensive and defensive schemes are going to have to compensate for the departure of more playmakers, including erratic QB Juice Williams and WR Rejus Benn, who will leave early for the NFL Draft.
Bill Lynch, Indiana...The Hoosiers showed some progress this season, but eventually were disappointed with their 4-8 mark that included a poor 1-7 Big Ten record. The campaign promised a bit more in September when IU looked rather menacing with its newly-installed "Pistol" offense, but the defense disappointed, and much of the stop unit will be graduating. Lynch will likely make a few staff changes in the offseason, and it is hoped that QB Ben Chappell will continue to progress in 2010. Administrators are on record as saying they want to give Lynch every chance to succeed, and that the coaching turnover this decade has been a negative. Still, IU will likely need to show a bit more progress next fall for Lynch to survive beyond 2010.
Ricky Bustle, UL-Lafayette...We're sure that Bustle took notice of Lafayette's sister school in the UL system, UL-Monroe, dismissing HC Charlie Weatherbie after his recently-completed 6-6 campaign. Which is probably a warning to Bustle that treading water in the Sun Belt won't be accepted forever. Bustle's most-recent Ragin' Cajun edition finished a respectable 6-6 this campaign, which was a bit better than most anticipated after the graduation of stars such as QB Michael Desormeaux and RB Tyrell Fenroy. But as Weatherbie's dismissal at Monroe indicated, such middling performance could eventually prove a ticket out of town... even in the Sun Belt.
Ralph Friedgen, Maryland...Although Friedgen's successor (o.c. James Franklin) is already on staff, we wonder if the entire situation at College Park is going to be under review if the Terps slip next fall to anything close to this season's 2-10 train wreck. No Maryland football team had ever lost as many as 10 games, and only an overtime win over James Madison and a 3-point upset over Clemson avoided a 0-12 campaign. Although the Terps endured some bad breaks and a slew of injuries (including one to top RB Da'Rel Scott that kept him out for half of the season, taking the Terp infantry with him), a 7-game losing streak to end the campaign was still hard for Maryland fans to digest. Friedgen has now endured four losing seasons in his last six campaigns. Moreover, more than 6000 fewer season tickets were sold in 2009 than 2008, and the number could drop further next season, bad news for a program with an expanded Byrd Stadium that has luxury suites to fill. On the plus side for Friedgen are few key seniors graduating, and the return of RB Scott, not to mention the continuing support of AD Debbie Yow, although the latter isn't going to be indefinite.
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan...Who would have thought we would be talking about Rodriguez being on the hot seat just two years into his job at Ann Arbor? But many regional sources believe Rich-Rod is in a must-win situation next season after back-to-back non-bowl campaigns for the first time at Michigan since the Big Ten allowed its non-champions to participate in the postseason (1975). This past season might have been even more difficult to endure than the transitional 3-9 campaign of 2008, especially since Michigan came flying out of the gate at 4-0 and appeared to uncover the perfect triggerman for Rodriguez' patented spread option with true frosh QB Tate Forcier. But the Wolverines only beat Delaware State after their 4-0 start and ended up tied with Indiana in the Big Ten cellar. Along the way the defense resembled a sieve, and the storm clouds began to gather further with off-field issues regarding excessive practice time having drawn the attention of the NCAA. Already, many Big Blue backers are looking at Rodriguez (8-16 in his first two years, and leaving a bad taste in everyone's mouths after his awkward departure from West Virginia) as a blown hire, although he'll get one more year to put his program on track. Lack of depth and not having the right players to run his offense have hurt Rodriguez the first two years on the job, but he won't have those excuses to fall back upon much longer.
Mike Locksley, New Mexico...The Lobos avoided the big donut in '09 thanks to a late-season 29-27 win over Colorado State, but by all other accounts, Locksley's first season in charge in Albuquerque was an absolute disaster, marred by a discrimination suit brought forth by a former athletic department employee, then a fight with assistant coach J.B. Gerald that eventually caused Locksley to be suspended for the Lobos' October 24 game vs. UNLV. And we haven't even talked about the miserable on-field product that disappointed with Locksley's version of the spread and a defense that was one of the nation's worst. The product was significantly worse than what predecessor Rocky Long fielded in his previous 11 years in charge, and Lobo backers have already soured on Locksley, whom many believe was fortunate not to get the boot sometime in the past few months.
Todd Dodge, North Texas...Although things started off encouragingly this season for the Mean Green with a 20-10 season-opening win at Ball State, it quickly went pear-shaped in Denton as UNT stumbled home 2-10, sinking Dodge's 3-year record to 5-31. Which is a far cry from the spectacular 98-11 mark he compiled the previous seven seasons as the coach of the powerhouse Southlake Carroll HS team in the Metroplex. Dodge's son Riley performed with some flair at QB in the first few weeks of the season but was eventually KO'd by injury, and the defense was again suspect. Dodge, whose contract runs through 2011, nonetheless is working under a mandate to improve significantly next fall or suffer the consequences.
Bob Toledo, Tulane...Toledo's regime has yet to gain any traction in New Orleans, struggling to a 9-27 mark over the past three seasons (3-9 this past season), causing some to wonder if the Wave can ever become relevant again on the gridiron. Toledo admittedly inherited a mess in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, but some C-USA sources believed Toledo would be fortunate to survive the recently-completed 3-9 campaign that featured numerous lopsided beatings (54-3 vs. BYU, 43-6 vs. Southern Miss, 42-0 vs. LSU, and 49-0 vs. UCF). He'll have a slew of returnees in 2010, including QB Ryan Griffin, and four true frosh were starting on defense by the end of the campaign, but Tulane seems a long way from bowl caliber and the type of season that might save Toledo's job next year.
Neil Callaway, UAB...True, 2009 was UAB's high-water mark under Callaway, posting its first 3-game win streak during his tenure and also recording the best overall mark (5-7) since Callaway took over in 2007. But for coaches who have failed to post a winning record in three seasons, the fourth season is key, and Callaway will enter 2010 without do-everything QB Joe Webb, who finally graduates. Slipping back to 4-8 or 3-9 could immediately put Callaway into some trouble next season.
Paul Wulff, Washington State...The Cougs have been unspeakably bad for Wulff, under whom Wazzu has descended into the abyss, just 3-22 over the past two seasons (with two of those wins by a mere FG in overtime). The Cougs never led a game during regulation time this past season as they were completely outclassed in the Pac-10 for a second year in a row. Although most observers expected Wulff to have some trouble when inheriting a program that had tailed off under predecessor Bill Doba, nobody expected the calamity that has resulted in the Palouse, with the team simply non-competitive. True frosh QB Jeff Tuel offered some hope for the future during this past season, but the product has been so wretched under Wulff that it would be impossible to envision him surviving another similar debacle next season.