Nebraska at Kansas State: What Bettors Need to Know
By Ben Burns
How good is Nebraska? That’s the question facing handicappers Thursday night, when the unbeaten, yet unproven Cornhuskers head to Manhattan to face Kansas State.
You could ask the same question about Bill Snyder’s Wildcats, who also sit at 4-0, thanks to a marshmallow-soft early schedule.
Kansas State (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) is certainly better than what most expected. The Wildcats returned only 11 starters and were picked near the bottom of the Big 12 North. Their surprising start has been bolstered by a premier running game, led by running back Daniel Thomas, an NFL prospect, and four returning starters on the offensive line. Thomas is fifth in the nation in rushing, averaging 157 yards. Senior quarterback Carson Coffman has been solid, but unspectacular. Carson is throwing for only 161 yards per game.
But it’s hard to believe too much in Kansas State, owner of a defense allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game. That’s bad news, as the Huskers boast the nation’s fourth-ranked rushing offense.
No. 6 Nebraska (4-0, 0-0) has been explosive, running its spread-option attack with quarterback Taylor Martinez and running backs Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead. The Huskers are averaging 309 yards rushing 40 points a game. But, again, when you’re schedule consists of Western Kentucky, Idaho, Washington and South Dakota State, how meaningful are those stats?
We’ll find out Thursday.
THE LINE
The Cornhuskers opened as 12-point favorites. You could find a few -11.5s Wednesday morning, but there weren’t any significant early line movements.
Nebraska is 4-0 against the spread this season and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite of 10.5 or more.
Kansas State is nothing special as a home dog, going 8-7 ATS in that situation over the last 10 seasons.
THE TOTAL
The total opened around 51, with a few 51.5s available Wednesday.
Nebraska is averaging 40 points and allowing 12.75. Kansas State is averaging 30.75 and allowing 19.75.
The under is 13-6 in Nebraska’s last 19 games. The over is 10-2 in the teams’ last 12 meetings.
Weather is not expected to be a factor, with clear skies and temperatures in the 70s forecast.
Last year: Nebraska 17, Kansas State 3
The Wildcats covered as 16.5-point underdogs last November in Lincoln. Kansas State’s defense limited Nebraska to just 267 yards of offense. The Wildcats squandered two second-half scoring chances but were in the game.
QUARTERBACK MATCHUP
In the first four starts of his career, Martinez has been sensational running the Husker option. He leads the team in rushing with 496 yards and eight touchdowns. But he has not been forced to beat a team through the air. He’s attempting only 14 passes a game and has two touchdowns and three interceptions.
Coffman hasn’t put up prolific passing numbers by any means, either. He’s thrown five touchdowns with two interceptions. The senior needs to be smart with football. Nebraska’s secondary is talented. The Huskers lead the nation in pass efficiency defense.
INJURIES
Nebraska has issues at linebacker, which is a concern against K-State’s ground game. Will Compton and Sean Fisher, two starting linebackers, are not expected to play. Fisher broke his leg against Western Kentucky in Week 1. Compton has been battling a foot injury and is listed as doubtful.
There’s better news on Husker offensive line, where starting tackle Marcel Jones is making his season debut after dealing with a back injury for the first month of the season.
Kansas State isn’t reporting any significant injuries.
Week 6 Games
Thursday's Game
Nebraska won last five games vs Kansas State, last four by 14+ points; Cornhuskers won last two visits here, 56-28/21-3- they're 5-2 as a home favorite under Pelini. K-State is 4-7 as home dog since '06, but since '00, Snyder is 6-1 as underdog in Little Apple. Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in last eight series games. Wildcats struggle against run, allowing 195.5 ypg on ground in four games (even I-AA Missouri State had 166). Nebraska has revenge game with Texas on deck; they better not be looking ahead.
Tips and Trends
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kansas St. Wildcats
CORNHUSKERS: (-12, O/U 51.5) Nebraska might be undefeated and ranked 7th in the nation, but they certainly didn't play like it in their last game. Nebraska only beat South Dakota St. 17-3 SU, an FCS team that they were favored by 41.5 points against. The Cornhuskers are hoping that result was just a natural let down from their road win at Washington the week prior. Nebraska has only won 1 game ATS this year, the road win at Washington. The Cornhuskers are averaging 40 PPG this season, the 11th best in the nation. The powerful rushing attack for Nebraska is what is most effective, averaging the 4th most rushing YPG in the nation at 309.3 YPG. QB Taylor Martinez is the team's leading rusher, as he has 496 rushing YDS with 8 TD's this season. RB Roy Helu Jr. has rushed for 305 YDS with 4 TD's of his own. Defensively, Nebraska has only allowed 1 team to score more than 17 PTS this season. Overall, the Cornhuskers are allowing 12.8 PPG, the 7th fewest PPG in the nation. Nebraska is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. The Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Cornhuskers are 8-1 ATS last 9 games as a road favorite more than 10 PTS.
Under is 14-2 last 16 games in October.
Key Injuries - TE Dreu Young (back) is out.
Projected Score: 28
WILDCATS: Kansas St. might be the least talked about undefeated team in FBS. The Wildcats are looking to start 2-0 within their division for the first time since 2000. The Wildcats opening season win against UCLA is starting to look better and better by the day. Kansas St. has been a single digit favorite in 3 of their 4 games this season, leading to a 2-2 ATS record. Kansas St. has plenty of revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 5 meetings SU against Nebraska. Beating the Cornhuskers tonight will certainly put the Wildcats in the national polls. Kansas St. is a run based offense, averaging 216 YPG on the ground. Senior RB Daniel Thomas leads this rushing attack, as he's rushed for 628 YDS and 6 TD's this year. Overall, this Wildcats offense averages 30.8 PPG, 50th best in the nation. No opponent has scored more than 24 PTS against the Wildcats this season. Tonight will mark the first time this season that Kansas St. will be the listed underdog. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. Kansas St. is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS last 7 conference games.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - OL Ethan Douglas (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 23 (Side of the Day)
Nebraska at Kansas State
By Christian Alexander
It’s always sad to see traditions die. College football has many great traditions along with many classic traditional rivalries. And while Nebraska and Kansas State will likely never be mistaken for Ohio State vs. Michigan or Army vs. Navy, make no mistake – this is a traditional Big 12 rivalry. The Cornhuskers and the Wildcats…it just sounds like Big 12 football.
And so it’s with more than a twinge of sadness that we take a look at this Thursdays matchup of the week as Nebraska travels to Kansas State for the last time. Sure, they might hook up a few years down the road but it likely won’t be as members of the same conference and if it is, I can guarantee you it won’t be as members of the Big 12.
Unless you’ve been allergic to college athletics news over of the past couple of months, you’ve likely heard about the news that has caused this traditional rivalry – and many others – to die. The college football landscape is changing in regards to the makeup of its conferences. Nebraska jumping the Big 12 ship and heading to Big 10 land was probably the biggest move from this summer but there were other casualties of this shake up as well.
So while Nebraska is rolling in all that Big Ten Network money they will soon get to reap, college football fans will have to get used to some new rivalries. I guess if we want to see the Big Red of Nebraska take on a team in purple for a conference showdown then we need to start pumping up that great Nebraska vs. Northwestern game! Yeah, hold your nose and try to swallow that one.
But at least this Thursday night we get to savor one last Big 12 clash between two rivals who have squared off against one another every year since 1922. For those scoring at home, Nebraska has pretty much owned this series with a 77-15-2 record. However, even though Nebraska is currently riding a five-game winning streak in the series, the Wildcats can take some confidence from the fact that five of their 15 wins have come over the past 12 years.
To notch one last win in this series – at least in the Big 12 record book – the boys in purple and silver in Manhattan, Kansas need to bring their best effort against the visitors in red from Lincoln, Nebraska.
Both teams bring perfect 4-0 records into this game along with punishing ground games. Nebraska currently has the 3rd best rushing attack in Division 1-A football. The engine of that attack thus far has been quarterback Taylor Martinez. The redshirt freshman signal caller – bringing back memories of the great Eric Crouch, has averaged 124 rushing yards per game - 11th most in the country - and has rushed for eight touchdowns.
Martinez started 2010 with three straight 100-yard rushing games, but wasn’t able to keep his streak alive against South Dakota State on Sept. 25 when he was held to 75 yards on 13 carries. The Jackrabbits were obviously well aware of Martinez and they stuck an extra defender to shadow him all night.
You can bet Kansas State coach Bill Snyder has reviewed tape of that game more than once and I’d say it’s likely the Wildcats will mimic that defensive strategy to some degree. Kansas State, which is allowing a Big 12-worst 195.5 rushing yards per game, will certainly need to figure out some scheme to stop the Cornhuskers on the ground because once they get rolling they can be hard to stop. Just ask the Washington Huskies who were drilled 56-21 at home when Nebraska rushed for 383 yards.
Kansas State’s best answer to that Cornhusker ground game might come via their own rushing attack. The Wildcats know a little something about running the ball as well and Snyder’s crew has the 22nd ranked rushing attack in the country.
For K State, their main weapon is RB Daniel Thomas who, like Martinez, has topped 100 yards in three out of four games this season. Against Central Florida, Thomas basically got the same treatment that Martinez was served against South Dakota State. The Golden Knights loaded the box against Thomas resulting in just 76 yards for the running back. Nebraska’s defense – aka the “Blackshirts – have been a stingy bunch this season, only surrendering 12.8 points a game, tied for seventh fewest in the nation. Like the Wildcats will be keying on Martinez, you can be sure the Blackshirts will be waiting for Thomas.
With that backdrop, it would seem logical that whichever team can muster the best passing attack this Thursday night will have the best chance to win. Kansas State QB Carson Coffman has not proven to be a serious threat passing the ball yet, as evidenced by the fact the Wildcats are ranked 100th in passing. The team one spot ahead of them in passing? Nebraska.
Nebraska is 1-1 against the spread in 2010 while Kansas State is 2-1 ATS.
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