Cincinnati at North Carolina State: What Bettors Need to Know
By Ben Burns
Thursday night’s Cincinnati at North Carolina State game is a handicapping head-scratcher.
The Bearcats (1-1) have looked bad. They surrendered eight sacks in an opening loss at Fresno State and got off to a sluggish start before pulling away against Indiana State, a second-tier FCS school.
Yet, Cincinnati arrives in Raleigh, N.C. as a very small underdog to face the undefeated Wolfpack.
North Carolina State hasn’t done much more than Cincinnati. The ‘Pack (2-0) crushed Western Carolina, another weak FCS team, in its opener and pulled out a semi-impressive road win at Central Florida.
North Carolina State didn’t return home from Saturday’s 28-21 win over UCF until 3:30 a.m. ET. The late arrival combined with Thursday’s game against Cincinnati had Wolfpack coach Tom O’Brien lamenting his team’s quick turnaround and telling the media that early-week practices were “sluggish.”
The Bearcats were at home last week. First-year coach Butch Jones doesn’t think the limited preparation time is that big of an advantage for either team.
To say the least, neither team is a proven commodity, which makes this game all the more tricky to handicap.
The odds
The Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out North Carolina State -2.5. It was down to -1.5 at most online and Vegas books as of Wednesday afternoon.
The Bearcats on a 6-2-1 ATS run as road underdogs. The Wolfpack is 5-17 ATS as a home favorite since 2003 and 2-4 in that situation under coach O’Brien.
The total opened at 55.
North Carolina State beat Pittsburgh of the Big East 38-31 last season and averaged 38 points in its two games this year.
Cincinnati was held to 14 points at Fresno State, but got its ground game going in a 40-7 rout of Indiana State.
Wolfpack senior kicker Josh Czajkowski is 12-for-14 on field goals for his career, 2-of-2 this year, and has not missed an extra point in 52 attempts.
Bearcat senior kicker Jake Rogers is 14-for-20 on field goals for his career, 1-of-2 this season, and 70-for-72 on extra points.
Weather is not expected to have an impact.
Eleven of the last 13 Wolfpack games have eclipsed the total.
Battle in the trenches
The Bearcats’ pass protection has been horrific. They’ve allowed 10 sacks in two games, eight coming in the opener against Fresno State. Only one team (Idaho) has allowed more.
That’s not a good matchup against a Wolfpack defense that’s done a good job of getting pressure on the quarterback. North Carolina State ranks among the Top 20 in the nation with six sacks in two games.
Three sophomores start on North Carolina State’s inexperienced offensive line that averages 307 pounds and has allowed six sacks in two games. The Bearcats have four sacks this season.
Quarterback matchup
Russell Wilson, the 2008 ACC Freshman of the Year, hasn’t progressed like O’Brien would have hoped. He completed just 10-of-30 passes in last week’s 28-21 win over Central Florida and managed a pedestrian 35 yards on a 13 carries. While his numbers won’t wow you, Wilson has done a good job of taking care of the football and has yet to throw an interception this season.
Cincinnati’s Zach Collaros, when upright, has been solid, but not spectacular. The junior is completing just over 60 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Like Wilson, he’s a dual-threat quarterback, capable of big plays in the running game.
Injuries
Cincinnati starting running back Isaiah Pead is a game-time decision with knee issues. The junior is the Bearcats’ leading returning rusher. He sat out last week in an effort to be available against North Carolina State, but, judging from the coach’s comments at Wednesday’s news conference, Pead seems iffy at best.
If he can’t go, Darrin Williams, who rushed for 117 yards against Indiana State in his first career start, will be the go-to guy.
The Bearcats lost one of their top receivers, senior Vidal Hazleton to a leg injury in Week 1. He’s out for the year.
North Carolina State has some reserves nicked up, but no significant injuries to starters were reported as of Wednesday afternoon.
Tips and Trends
Cincinnati Bearcats at North Carolina St. Wolfpack
BEARCATS: This is a make or break game for Cincinnati, as they can ill afford to start their season 1-2 SU. After the past work from former coach Brian Kelly, Bearcats faithful have come to expect excellence. There are already grumblings that new coach Butch Jones isn't the answer for Cincinnati. Offensively, the Bearcats have the 95th ranked total offense in the nation. Even worse, the once vaunted passing offense of the Bearcats is off to a slow start, ranking only 92nd in the country. Cincinnati is 0-2 ATS to start this year, and have actually lost their past 7 games ATS dating back to last season. QB Zach Collaros has yet to get on track this season, as he's yet to throw for more than 220 YDS in a game. Making matters worse is the fact that the duel threat QB has yet to use his legs in any game this year. The Bearcats have a huge game next weekend at home against Oklahoma, so it's absolutely crucial for this program that they win tonight. Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
Bearcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 8-1 in Bearcats last 9 Thursday games.
Key Injuries - RB Isaiah Pead (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 23
WOLFPACK: (-1.5, O/U 55) North Carolina St. is off to a nice 2-0 start to the year, both SU and ATS. In a very weak ACC, perhaps the Wolfpack should be a team more people need to pay attention to. This home game against Cincinnati is vital, as the Wolfpack face Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Boston College in their following 3 games. North Carolina St. earned a gritty 28-21 win on the road at UCF last week as the listed underdog. QB Russell Wilson is directing the 26th best scoring offense in FBS this year, averaging 38 PPG. Wilson has 5 TD's to his credit this season, with no turnovers. The maturation process of the talented Wilson is a huge key to the success of this Wolfpack team. Defensively, North Carolina St. also has the 26th best scoring defense, allowing 14 PPG. North Carolina St. is likely to have a scheduling advantage, as they are the home team playing on a short week.
Wolfpack is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Under is 13-3 in Wolfpack last 16 Thursday games.
Key Injuries - WR Quintin Payton (finger) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Cincinnati at N.C. State
By Christian Alexander
After two Thursdays in the south and specifically, in the SEC, we start to gradually head north and stop off in Raleigh, NC to check the pulse of the ACC and the NC State Wolfpack.
Checking the pulse is definitely needed in the ACC after last weekend when Miami was beat up by Ohio State, Florida State pounded by Oklahoma and Virginia Tech caught sleeping by James Madison. Really the only team that was able to successfully defend the reputation of the conference was the Wolfpack who held off Central Florida down in Orlando.
The 2010 season is off to a different start for N.C. State and coach Tom O’Brien. Now in this fourth season, O’Brien has typically started slow and come on late in the year. At 2-0 so far this season, this is the first time since 2002 that the program has won its first two games.
Additionally, N.C. State has gotten used to winning with its offense in recent years and just doing enough on defense to survive. After all, it’s hard to win a lot of games when your defense surrenders an average of more than 31 points per game as the Wolfpack did in 2009.
O’Brien took a big step towards correcting that this offseason by hiring Jon Tenuta as linebackers coach and adding some aggressive schemes. The dividends so far have been obvious as last weekend the N.C. State defense forced five turnovers, returning one for a touchdown in its win against UCF.
But the news isn’t all good as the Wolfpack offense can’t seem to get on track. QB Russell Wilson has been the sparkplug for N.C. State over the past two seasons but so far in 2010 he has looked very pedestrian. The redshirt junior was just 10 of 30 against Central Florida, and has yet to develop a rhythm with his wide receivers.
It certainly couldn’t have helped that Wilson spent the summer playing baseball in the Colorado Rockies organization after being selected by the club in the 4th round of the MLB draft. While most Division 1 quarterbacks were working on timing patterns with their main targets, Wilson was chasing down fly balls and trying to hit sliders. He’ll look to get on track this Thursday as the Cincinnati Bearcats come to town.
Speaking of a different start to the year… the defending Big East champion Cincinnati Bearcats hardly recognize themselves. The program that has won 33 games in the past three seasons, including a 12-1 season last year, not only lost their head coach (Brian Kelly, Notre Dame) but also apparently lost their offensive zip.
In 2009, Cincy ranked in the top-10 nationally in nearly every offensive category and piled up points faster than they scoreboard operator could post them. This year? Not so much. After two games and a 1-1 record, the Bearcats rank 92nd in the nation in passing and 78th rushing. That all adds up to 95th in total offense, a figure unheard of in recent years under Kelly.
Clearly, new head coach Butch Jones is tweaking some things and molding the team to fit his coaching style. Still, the drop off is alarming considering just how potent Cincinnati was in years past.
Part of that transformation to the style of Jones is cementing a running game. The Bearcats threw the ball a ton under Kelly but Jones is determine to establish the run at Cincinnati. That was clear last weekend when Darrin Williams and John Goebel helped the Bearcats rack up 263 rushing yards, their most since 2007.
This week Jones is hoping to get back RB Isaiah Pead (knee, game-time decision) who missed last weekend with swelling in his knee. When healthy, the Junior is the best back at Cincinnati. Jones will need all capable running backs he can find because the passing game simply has not clicked yet. First-year starting QB Zach Collaros threw for only 130 yards last weekend against Indiana State.
Even with the improvement of the N.C. State defense, there figures to be some opportunities for Collaros and crew Thursday night in Raleigh. This game represents a prime opportunity for Cincy to right the ship and get ready for Big East play.
Similarly, Wolfpack QB Russell Wilson will be looking to get on track against a Bearcats defense which returned four of its top six tacklers from last season, but are starting some inexperienced players. LB J.K. Schaffer leads the team with 16 tackles and will hope the Bearcats' new 4-3 alignment can get pressure on Wilson and make him uncomfortable. That new defensive scheme has already produced 12 sacks in just two games.
Cincinnati is 0-1 against the spread this season while N.C. State is 1-0.
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