Monday 12/28/20 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NFL, NBA, NCAAF & NCAAB games.
Tech Trends - Bowls
Bruce Marshall
The College Football Bowl Season kicks off on Monday, Dec. 21 and concludes on Saturday, Jan. 2 before the College Football Playoff championship on Monday, Jan. 11.
We've identified betting trends and angles for the final 27 bowl games and we also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
OKLAHOMA STATE vs. MIAMI-Fl.
Canes slowed down late in season, just 2-5 last seven vs. line in 2020.
Though OSU only 1-5 last six vs. spread.
Cowboys also on 3-11 “under” run since late last season.
Gundy has also covered four straight bowls.
Meanwhile, Miami has lost and failed to cover 8 of last 9 bowls.
Tech Edge: Oklahoma State and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
COLORADO vs. TEXAS
Tom Herman 4-0 SU and vs. line in bowls (3-0 with Texas).
Buffs were 4-1 vs. line for Karl Dorrell this season.
CU 0-5 SU (1-4 vs. line) last five bowls, only one since 2007, and no SU wins since ‘99 Insight.com Bowl vs. BC.
Tech Edge: Texas, based on bowl trends. slight to UCF, based on bowl trends.
WISCONSIN vs. WAKE FOREST
Badgers no covers last four in 2020, longest spread skid since beginning of 2012 (reached six, including last two of 2011).
Meanwhile, Wake 6-2 vs. line in 2020.
Wiscy had won and covered five bowls in a row prior to close Rose Bowl loss to Ducks last season.
Tech Edge: Wake Forest, based on recent trends.
FLORIDA vs. OKLAHOMA
Sooners won last seven outright, covered last six, in 2020.
Though OU just 2-4 vs. line last six bowls, and 3-2 last five in rare dog roles.
Gators head coach Dan Mullen 4-5 vs. line in bowls.
Tech Edge: Slight to OU, based on recent trends.
MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. TULSA
Tulsa outstanding 7-1 vs. line this season, 11-3 last 14 vs. number since late LY.
Golden Hurricane has covered last three bowls (not since 2016, the last two of those for Montgomery).
MSU played better down stretch, covering 3 of last 4 after dropping five in a row vs. number.
At that point, Leach was 5-16 his last 21 vs. spread.
Bulldogs “under” 7-3 this season.
Leach only 2-4 SU and 1-5 vs. spread in bowls with Wash State.
Tech Edge: Tulsa, based on team trends.
BALL STATE vs. SAN JOSE STATE
San Jose 6-0 SU and vs. line in 2020 (counts UNLV as a win).
Now 15-4-1 vs. spread since late 2018.
Spartans also “under” last seven since late 2019.
Cards won and covered last four in 2020 after dropping 5 of previous six vs. spread.
Tech Edge: SJSU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
ARMY vs. WEST VIRGINIA
Monken 3-0 SU in bowls for Army, also “under” 7-4 this year.
Mounties failed to cover their last six bowls (all Holgorsen).
Tech Edge: Army and slight to “under,” based on bowl and “totals” trends.
ARKANSAS vs. TCU
Old SWC matchup!
Hogs cooled a bit late in 2020, lost last four outright, covered only one of those.
Had covered first six previous.
TCU won and covered last three and 5 of last 6 TY.
Patterson 10-3 SU last 13 bowls, 3-2 vs. line last five.
Tech Edge: Slight to TCU, based on recent trends.
CINCINNATI vs. GEORGIA
Luke Fickell 10-5 as 'dog since 2017 with Bearcats, and Cincy 2-0 SU, 1-1 vs. line in bowls last two years.
Bearcats “over” last 3 and 4 of last 5 in 2020.
Note Georgia “over” last four in 2020.
Kirby Smart 3-2 SU, 4-1 vs. line in bowls (counts 2017 title game vs. Bama).
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
AUBURN vs. NORTHWESTERN
Cats 7-1 vs. line in 2020, NU on 8-1-2 spread run since late 2019.
NU also “under” 8-1 last nine since late 2019.
Pat Fitz has also won outright last three bowls.
Auburn 2-4 vs. spread last six bowls, and Tigers “under” 8-2 in 2020.
Tech Edge: Northwestern and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NOTRE DAME vs. ALABAMA
Saban 8-3 vs. line TY, on 9-3 run since late 2019.
Alabama, however, just 4-7 vs. number last 11 bowls/Title games.
Irish were only 5-6 vs. line TY, and 3-5 last 8 vs. line in bowls.
Kelly 5-4 as dog since 2016.
Tech Edge: Alabama, based on team trends.
OHIO STATE vs. CLEMSON
Clemson has won and covered all three bowl/playoff meetings since 2013.
4-0 if going way back to ‘78 Gator Bowl.
Buckeyes 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, just 4-7 last 11 overall vs. line since late 2019.
Dabo 14-3 vs. line in ACC title/bowl/playoff games since 2012.
Tigers surging again with three wins and covers in a row.
Tech Edge: Clemson, based on team trends.
KENTUCKY vs. N.C. STATE
UK only 4-6 SU, 4-5-1 vs. line this season.
Though Stoops 2-0 SU last two and 3-0 vs. line last three bowls.
Pack 7-4 vs. spread in rebound year for Dave Doeren.
Tech Edge: N.C. State, based on recent trends.
OLE MISS vs. INDIANA
Hoosiers spotless 7-0 v. line in 2020, now covers in last 8 and 11 of last 13 since late 2019.
Kiffin only 4-5 SU and vs. line TY with Rebels.
However, he did win and cover bowls with FAU in 2017 & ‘19.
Tech Edge: Indiana, based on recent trends.
OREGON vs. IOWA STATE
ISU on 8-4-1 “under” run since late LY.
Ducks only 1-4 vs. line last five bowls/playoffs.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.
TEXAS A&M vs. NORTH CAROLINA
Jimbo won and covered last four away from Kyle Field TY.
UNC had dropped 3 in a row vs. line before Miami blowout.
Mack only 5-6 vs. spread in 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to A&M, based on team trends.
211W VIRGINIA -212 ARMY
W VIRGINIA is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. poor passing teams with a completion pct. of 48% or worse. since 1992.
295OKLAHOMA ST -296 MIAMI
MIAMI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.
297COLORADO -298 TEXAS
COLORADO is 14-30 ATS (-19 Units) in road games after allowing >=37 pts. since 1992.
311WISCONSIN -312 WAKE FOREST
WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS (12.1 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.
313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 8-1 Under (6.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.
315FLORIDA -316 OKLAHOMA
FLORIDA is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival since 1992.
317MISSISSIPPI ST -318 TULSA
MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
321BALL ST -322 SAN JOSE ST
BALL ST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.
323ARKANSAS -324 TCU
ARKANSAS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games against the Big 12 since 1992.
SJSU MAX 2 ND HALF AND MAX OVER 2 ND HALF