Trends to Watch
By Judd Hall
We’re just a couple of months away from the start of the college football season. And that means that most gamblers have been hard at work, looking up all the information they can on players, coaching tendencies and anything else they feel is pertinent. The other set of bettors are too busy searching for a free Big Gulp and why nobody has filled their cheese steak.
There has been no shortage of breakdowns of the upcoming season here on VegasInsider.com. We’ve talked about good Heisman prop wagers, backing unranked favorites and some good sleepers to win their BCS conferences. That doesn’t even take into account that we’ve dissected the biggest games of the year.
Now it’s time for us to start looking at some situational trends that can help tighten things up before dropping our money on a game. These are some things to keep an eye out for during the 2010 campaign.
Revenge is a dish best served on the field…
Losses are never a good thing in any sport, but they’re magnified in college football. And those setbacks are quality fuel for coaches to fire up their teams to exact some revenge.
Ohio State’s Jim Tressel has been one of the best coaches to back when it comes to covering in revenge contests. The Buckeyes have gone 12-4 against the spread in 16 revenge spots since Tressel came to Columbus. We’re going to get a chance to act on that play on Oct. 23 when the Boilermakers come to Ohio Stadium. Purdue was the Buckeyes’ lone Big Ten setback last year, falling 26-18 as 13 ½-point road faves.
Arizona has also shown itself to be a proper revenge option for the gambling public with Mike Stoops running the show. Stoops has had some issues since taking over the Wildcats in 2004. But that has helped us out for our purposes by going 25-12 ATS in revenge games. They’re going to afford us four spots to play on this situation this season with games vs. Iowa (9/18), Washington (10/23), California (9/25) and at Oregon (11/26).
For every good coach out there to play on the revenge factor, there are guys that don’t know crap from Crisco. One such mental midget is LSU’s Les Miles. The Tigers have not fared great for gamblers in revenge spots under Miles’ tenure, evidenced by a 2-7 ATS mark. Given that the three losses of 2009 came against Florida, Alabama and Mississippi, the odds of this trend reversing is virtually nil.
Profitable Rest…
Having a week off between matches is always welcome for the players and coaches. That extra rest can help the bettors as well. Even better for us is that this is a spot focuses more on the non-marquee programs.
Rice is one such team with David Bailiff running the show. The Owls have covered the spread in all five of their games coming off of rest in Bailiff’s first three years in Houston. They’ll get the chance to remain perfect with a road trip to Tulsa on Nov. 13.
Most people think of Vanderbilt for its quality education amidst one of the country’s best cities in Nashville. But the Commodores are quite adept to keep games close after a little time off under bobby Johnson. The ‘Dores have posted a 6-2 ATS mark in their eight games coming off of rest. They’ll get to act on this come Oct. 2 with a trip up to Connecticut to take on the Huskies.
Troy is normally a team that gives trouble to BCS schools, but they can’t handle playing on time off for Larry Blakeney. The Trojans have gone just 4-11 ATS over his 20 years with the program. And the right time for us to fade them will be on Oct. 30 at Louisiana-Monroe.
What a spread…
We’ve all heard the phrase “the third time is the charm,” but how often does that really come into play? Plenty of teams have come through with back-to-back wins against the spread over the last three years…278 of them to be precise. The third game in that troika has seen those clubs go 210-68 SU, but just 136-140-2 ATS. Despite those mediocre numbers for the whole, we can find some quality to wager upon.
One of the best teams to play as a home favorite after back-to-back ATS wins has been Troy, which might surprise some after knowing its issues on rest. But the Trojans know what they’re doing in this role by going 6-0 SU and ATS over the last three seasons.
The Air Force Academy has handled this situation with military efficiency. A 6-1 SU and ATS record for the Falcons in this role should be considered ample evidence. It will take some doing this year since they’re replacing six starters on both the offense and defense.
One of the schools to bet against as a home favorite after failing to cover the spread resides in Morgantown, West Virginia. The Mountaineers have gone 0-3 SU and ATS in this spot over their last three seasons.
Buffalo is just as good a side to fade in this role, evidenced by a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS mark. Penn State has even gone 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS when placed in this situation. Same thing goes for Auburn, where they are 4-0 SU but 1-3 ATS when listed as a home “chalk” after back-to-back ATS wins.
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