UAB at Central Florida: What Bettors Need to Know
Line movement
This game opened at -12 in favor of UCF at most books and has moved to -13 as of Tuesday night. The total has jumped about a point at as well.
UAB is 2-2 ATS and has covered in its past two games, defeating Troy and losing in double-overtime to Tennessee on September 25. Central Florida is 3-1 ATS with the lone loss coming at home to North Carolina State. The last time out, UCF lost 17-13 at Kansas State in a game it deserved to win.
In last year’s 34-27 UCF win in this series, the Knights were 3-point road favorites and the total closed at 52.5. Central Florida has won six of seven all-time meetings in this series.
No quarterback change at UCF
There was talk that Central Florida might bench freshman QB Jeff Godfrey for junior Rob Calabrese, so Godfrey's time on the sidelines could be used as a teaching opportunity before reinserting him back into the lineup. However, Godfrey was proclaimed the starter for the Conference USA opener.
Calabrese opened the season as the Knights' starter, but Godfrey beat him out for the starting job with a late rally against N.C. State. Godfrey ran for 99 yards against Kansas State, but threw two interceptions. Coach George O'Leary said the offense missed several scoring opportunities because of inconsistencies in the pass game, so Calabrese will get at least a series or two Wednesday.
"Godfrey's starting,” O’Leary told reporters. “There's no question there. I said we'd have the availability to play both quarterbacks. When depends on what we see going on and how he handles what's going on out there."
Godfrey has 203 yards and two touchdowns rushing and 394 passing yards with one touchdown and two inter¬ceptions. The Knights are ranked No. 98 nationally and last in Conference USA with 169 passing yards per game this season.
Offensive coordinator Charlie Taaffe will move from the coaches' box to the sideline for the first time Wednesday. The thought behind that is Taaffe can talk face-to-face with Godfrey between offensive drives.
“I'll have a chance to settle him down a little bit and be able to talk to him," Taaffe told the Orlando Sentinel.
Godfrey might need some settling considering UAB ranks No. 11 in the nation with three sacks per game so far this season.
UAB picks a kicker
Last week, UAB coach Neil Callaway opened up the place-kicking competition after sophomore starter Josh Zahn missed all five of his field goal attempts in regulation during UAB’s double-overtime loss to Tennessee. Zahn is 3-for-9 overall this season on field goals with a long of 35 yards. He is 10-for-10 on extra points.
On Monday, Callaway said he will stick with Zahn over Trey Ragland as the team's field goal and extra point kicker. Ragland leads Conference USA and ranks third in the nation with a 48.4 punting average.
This and that
During the past 39 games, UCF is 20-3 when scoring 20 points or more and 1-15 when scoring less than 20 points.
Three of UAB’s four games this season have been decided on the final play. Quarterback Bryan Ellis has passed for 733 yards and four touchdowns in the past two games. He broke the school record with 55 pass attempts in the loss to the Vols.
UAB uses David Isabelle at QB when it’s a running down. He’s the team’s leading rusher with 327 yards and four scores on the ground. When it’s a passing down, Ellis is usually inserted.
UCF, which closed 2009 with six straight conference wins, leads Conference USA in passing defense, scoring defense, passing efficiency defense and total defense this season. Only Troy, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Army and Arizona State have lost at least two games by a smaller margin than the Knights’ 5.5-point average margin of defeat.
Week 6 Games
Central Florida won five of last six games vs UAB; underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in those six games. Blazers lost two of last three visits here, with losses by 9-17 points. UCF is 9-6-1 as home favorite since '05; UAB is 5-10 as road underdog since '08. UAB is 1-3, with three of four games decided by 3 or less points; they were down 23-7 at half in each of last two games, but rallied to either tie/win (outscored last two opponents in second half, 49-19). Knights allowed 27 points in splitting pair of away games; they say they're going to play two QBs, but freshman QB is by far the better option, much more mobile.
Tips and Trends
UAB Blazers at Central Florida Knights
BLAZERS: UAB is coming off their best performance of the season, nearly winning on the road in the SEC against Tennessee. The Blazers were a 14 point underdog, and ultimately only lost 29-32 SU. The prior week, UAB beat Troy at home as a 3.5 underdog. Clearly this UAB team is coming together, and they are doing so under the radar. That makes this team a valuable commodity from a betting perspective, something that just can't be ignored. The Blazers have scored at least 29 PTS in 3 of their 4 games overall this season. UAB has some balance on offense, as they rank in the top 45 both on the ground and through the air this year. Dual threat David Isabelle has rushed for a team high 327 YDS this season, including 4 TD's. Isabelle has also thrown for 3 TD's and 260 YDS this season, proving his worth as a legitimate duel threat. UAB has played back to back close games, with only 4 PTS combined being the difference. The Blazers have revenge on their minds tonight, as they lost 27-34 SU last year. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of more than 10 points.
Blazers are 2-6 ATS last 8 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a bye week.
Key injuries - CB Marquis Coleman (undisclosed) is probable.
Projected Score: 23
KNIGHTS: (-12.5, O/U 48.5) Central Florida has alternated wins and losses this year, as they are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. The Knights are a very underrated team that typically plays team very tough. Tonight's contest will mark only the 2nd time this season that UCF will be a double digit favorite. The Knights have outgained their 3 of their 4 opponents this season, proving just how scrappy this team is. The Knights have a potent rushing attack that averages 184 YPG, the 39th best in the nation. RB's Ronnie Weaver and Jeffrey Godfrey have combined for more than 400 YDS rushing and 5 TD's this year. The Knights are best known for their defense, and this year is no exception. Only 1 team has scored more than 13 PTS against UCF this year. The Knights are only allowing 15.5 PPG, the 21st best in the country. UCF is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games overall. The Knights are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
Knights are 6-0 ATS last 6 games following a SU loss.
Under is 7-2 last 9 games as a home favorite of 10.5 PTS or more.
Key injuries - LB Lawrence Young (head) is questionable.
Projected Score: 34 (OVER-Total of the Day)
UAB at UCF Preview
By Brian Edwards
If the MLB Playoffs isn’t your cup of tea, you have aother mid-week wagering option Wednesday night. Central Florida (2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) is poised to host Alabama-Birmingham in a Conference USA showdown.
As of early this morning, most betting shops were listing UCF as a favorite in the 12-13 range, while the total was either 48 ½ or 49. Gamblers can back UAB (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) to win outright for a plus-375 payout (risk $100 to win $375).
George O’Leary’s team is coming off a tough 17-13 loss at Kansas St. The Wildcats got the game-winning touchdown with 24 seconds left on a seven-yard run by Carson Coffman. Nevertheless, the Knights hooked up their backers as 6 ½-point underdogs.
Ronnie Weaver rushed for 130 yards and one touchdown on 22 carries, but UFC couldn’t overcome the ineffective play of its quarterback. Jeff Godfrey completed only 8-of-18 passes for 92 yards and two interceptions, but he will still get the starting nod tonight.
UAB also had to check into The Heartbreak Hotel two weekends ago, losing at Tennessee by a 32-29 count in double overtime. Like UCF, however, the Blazers covered the number as 13-point road underdogs.
UCF has played twice previously at home, going 1-1 SU and 0-1 ATS. The Knights opened the year with a 38-7 win over South Dakota in a non-lined affair. Then in Week 2, they lost to once-beaten North Carolina St., 28-21.
UAB took the cash in its loss at UT, but the same can’t be said for its other road trip. The Blazers went down 28-7 at SMU as 11-point underdogs in Week 2. They’ve had a pair of nail-biters at home, losing 32-31 to FAU and beating Troy 34-33 on a last-second Hail Mary pass.
UFC senior linebacker Lawrence Young, who had a team-high 10 tackles for loss last year, missed the loss at K-St. with a concussion and is “questionable” tonight.
The ‘over’ is 3-1 for UAB this year. Dating back to last season, the Blazers have watched the ‘over’ cash at a 7-2 clip in their last nine outings.
The ‘under’ has been a winner in all three of UCF’s games with a total.
UCF has won six of seven all-time meetings between these schools, posting a 4-2 spread record in the process. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four encounters.
When these teams met in Birmingham last year, UCF captured a 34-27 win as a three-point road favorite. Brynn Harvey paced the Knights with 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Harvey, a junior RB who had knee surgery in the spring, is hoping to return at some point later this month.
ESPN will have television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Florida is 21-11-1 as a home favorite during Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure. As of early this morning, most books had the Gators favored by seven.
South Carolina went 3-0 ATS as a home underdog last season, beating Ole Miss and Clemson outright and covering as a double-digit ‘dog vs. Florida. The Gamecocks are 6 ½-point home puppies Saturday vs. Alabama.
Before Kentucky went into Auburn and won a 21-14 decision last season, the Tigers had beaten the Wildcats 15 straight times. They’ll collide in Lexington on Saturday with most spots tabbing Auburn as a six-point road ‘chalk.’
Since 2001, Vandy is 5-13 ATS as a home favorite. The Commodores are favored by 26 vs. Eastern Michigan this week.
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