NCAAF: Week 1 opening line report
By ASHTON GREWAL
They say all good things are worth waiting for. Thankfully, oddsmakers gave us the shortest wait ever for college football’s Week 1 lines. Unlike its NFL cousin, the first week lines for college don’t usually come out until the mid or late August.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a company that helps set lines for many big name sportsbooks in Nevada, upped the ante this season by releasing its Week 1 pointspreads just under a month before the season’s opening kickoff.
The first games of the season air on Thursday night with non-conference games like South Carolina at North Carolina State and Oregon at Boise State.
The Broncos are laying 4.5 points against last year’s Pac-10 runner up Oregon.
“Hawaii is probably the only school with a bigger home-field advantage than Boise State,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker with LVSC. “Boise gets about 5 or 5.5 points for its home games. You’ve got to be cautious about the revenge factor in this game, though.”
The Ducks fell 37-32 at home to the Broncos last season, despite entering the game as 10-point favorites.
Texas, No. 2 in the USA Today preseason poll, gives the most points (38) on Saturday, but Seba says Southern Cal’s line was the more difficult one to set.
“We varied a bit on USC. We had some guys as high as 36 and some as low as 30. We decided to go with 32.”
Seba says he doesn’t think the Trojans, who host San Jose State on Sept. 5, will blow as many opponents away this season compared to years past. The inexperience at the quarterback position could impair Pete Carroll’s offense.
One of the more anticipated games on the Week 1 board has Georgia visiting Oklahoma State. LVSC made the Cowboys 4.5-point faves against last year’s preseason No. 1.
“A lot of people are talking about Oklahoma State and pegging them as a surprise team. I don’t see them as a surprise team because of the hype.”
Still, Seba likes the number at 4.5. He says the public’s positive perception of the Cowboys, along with Georgia’s well known losses to the NFL Draft (QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno) make Okie State an easy favorite.
Big 12 bettors should get a good grasp on what life will be like for Mizzou without Chase Daniel under center. The Tigers play an experienced Illinois squad at a neutral site. While Mizzou no longer has its offensive leader, the Fighting Illini return QB Juice Williams and WR Arrelious Benn.
LSVC has Illinois giving 5 points to the Big 12 club.
One of the more interesting Week 1 lines sees potential BCS buster BYU getting 21 points against defending Heisman winner Sam Bradford and Oklahoma.
“The game is taking place on a neutral field (the new Cowboys Stadium), but 90 percent of the fans will be backing the Sooners,” Seba says.
BYU does have a competitive team with starting QB Max Hall back in the fold, but Seba predicts the lack of depth will be the Cougars’ downfall.
“It could very likely be a seven or 10-point game going into the fourth quarter. But with that Oklahoma offense, things can get out of hand in a hurry. BYU will have to throw the ball to keep pace with the Sooners and that could lead to some costly turnovers.”
The public bettors and college football fans are geared for the big games in Week 1, but the contests Seba and his coworkers stay up late worrying about are the lesser known matchups.
“Take North Texas and Ball State,” he says. “North Texas is supposed to have its best team in a decade, but what does that mean? Ball State was a big player in the MAC last year, but what are they going to be like without Nate Davis?”
LVSC sent out Ball State -16 but Seba says it would have been closer to -28 last season.
Over/under lines are still unavailable. Most offshore books are expected to release their lines later this week.