NCAAF: Week 1 Wagers
By Brian Edwards
Las Vegas Sports Consultants released its opening lines for Week 1 of the college football season this past Friday. Over the weekend, the Las Vegas Hilton posted its numbers and on Monday the Golden Nugget, Sportsbook.com and Stratsophere followed suit.
Bettors will get their first taste of action with five games on Thursday (9/3), highlighted by an ESPN doubleheader. North Carolina St. will take on South Carolina in Raleigh at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
LVSC opened the Wolfpack as a 3 ½-point favorite and the Hilton used the same number. Meanwhile, the Nugget went with N.C. St. at three and the Stratosphere made it three but with a minus-120 price tag.
Remember, Tom O’Brien’s team will be without junior Nate Irving, who is one of the ACC’s premier linebackers. Irving suffered a broken leg in a car crash earlier this summer and probably won’t be ready to play until October.
The Gamecocks are 8-4-1 against the spread in 13 games as road underdogs under Steve Spurrier. They thumped N.C. St. 34-0 as 14-point home favorites in last season’s opener at Williams-Brice Stadium.
In ESPN’s nightcap contest slated to kick at 10:15 p.m. Eastern, Boise St. will play host to Oregon on the smurf turf. LVSC had the Broncos at 4 ½ on the send-out, but most spots are listing Chris Petersen’s squad as a six-point home ‘chalk.’
The Ducks will be looking to avenge a 37-32 loss to Boise as 10-point favorites in Eugene last year. They actually trailed the Broncos by a 37-13 count early in the fourth quarter before rallying to within five, only to come up short nonetheless.
Oregon St. is the only BCS school to come to the blue carpet for a regular-season game since 2003. On both occasions in ’03 and ’05, the Beavers were dealt woodshed treatment by Boise St. The Broncos slammed OSU 53-34 in the first meeting and won a 42-14 decision in the last encounter.
Oregon will certainly be hoping to avoid a similar fate in the debut of new head coach Chip Kelly, who was the offensive coordinator for Mike Bellotti the two previous seasons.
Tulsa will travel to the Big Easy to face Tulane in ESPN’s Friday game at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Most betting shops are listing the Golden Hurricane at either 13 ½ or 14-point road ‘chalk.’
The action starts early Saturday with a six-pack of games starting between noon Eastern and 12:20. Five of those six games will have double-digit spreads.
Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin will make his debut in the 12:20 game on the SEC Network. LVSC opened the Volunteers as 28-point home favorites against Western Kentucky, but most books had UT in the 30-31 range on Monday.
Penn St. and Ohio St., who most pundits consider the best the Big Ten has to offer in 2009, will both hit the field for noon contests. Most spots have the Nittany Lions as 27 ½-point home favorites against Akron, while the Buckeyes are 21 ½-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Navy.
ESPNU will have the telecast for Kentucky vs. Miami (OH.) at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati at noon ET. LVSC opened the Wildcats as 14-point favorites and every book except the Hilton (UK -14 ½) has agreed. The ‘Cats are 5-5 ATS as double-digit favorites during Rich Brooks’ six-year tenure.
Minnesota will travel to the Carrier Dome to square off against Syracuse at noon on ESPN2. The Gophers are 6 ½-point road favorites against the Orange, who went 10-37 during Greg Robinson’s abysmal four-year tenure. Doug Marrone will try to bring the ‘Cuse back to prominence after a three-year stretch as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints.
During the 3:30 time slot of Week 1, gamblers will be treated to several high-profile matchups, including Georgia at Oklahoma St. LVSC opened the Cowboys as 4 ½-point favorites but have now adjusted that number to 5 ½. The Hilton and Sportsbook.com are using six as the line.
Mike Gundy’s squad will be trying to avenge a 35-14 loss at UGA in the 2007 season opener. The Dawgs easily covered the spread as 6 ½-point home favorites.
After serving as Matthew Stafford’s back-up QB for most of the last three seasons, Joe Cox will get his second career start in this spot. He’ll go against a defense that returns six starters and could be vulnerable. Keep in mind that Oklahoma St. gave up 42 points to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl, 61 points to Oklahoma in its regular-season finale at home and a 56-spot at Texas Tech in mid-November.
Notre Dame will welcome Nevada to South Bend for a 3:30 start on NBC. LVSC had the Irish as 17-point favorites on the send-out, but most books were at 14 on Monday.
Charlie Weis’s team better be on upset alert in this situation. The Wolf Pack has one of the most underrated QBs in the country in junior Colin Kaepernick, who garnered WAC Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2008.
Illinois and Missouri are poised to collide in their annual season opener at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. The Illini are hoping to end a four-game losing streak to the Tigers, who captured a 52-42 triumph last season as 10-point favorites.
This time around, Ron Zook’s team is favored by 6 ½ at most books. Missouri is in a transition year after losing QB Chase Daniel, TE Chase Coffman and dynamic playmaker Jeremy Maclin, but Illinois looks poised for a bounce-back season thanks to the return of QB Juice Williams and WR Arrelious Benn.
Wake Forest went into Waco for its 2008 opener and spanked Baylor 41-13 as an 11 ½-point road favorite. However, that was before Art Briles turned to then-freshman QB Robert Griffin to run the show for the Bears. Griffin enjoyed a remarkable debut campaign, completing 59.9 percent of his passes with a 15/3 touchdown-interception ratio. Griffin also rushed for more than 1,000 yards (1,118 before taking sacks into account, 843 net yards) and 13 TDs.
The oddsmakers have a healthy amount of respect for Griffin, as evidenced by Wake being listed as a single-digit favorite. LVSC opened the Demon Deacons as 4 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ but they were either one or 1 ½ at most spots Monday. ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 3:30.
As bettors look to the prime-time tilts, they’ll find Oklahoma taking on BYU at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. LVSC had the Sooners at 21 on the send-out, but they were adjusted to 22 at most books by Monday.
Remember, OU went down against a team from the Mountain West Conference in its 2005 opener against TCU. The Horned Frogs went into Norman and collected a 17-10 victory as 25-point underdogs. The Cougars will face the Sooners at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN.
The Gene Chizik Era on the Plains will start at 7:00 p.m. Eastern when Auburn hosts La. Tech on ESPNU. LVSC opened the Tigers as 13-point home favorites and most spots agreed with that number or had them slightly increased to 13 ½.
Just like last season, Alabama will play its lid-lifter at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide destroyed Clemson 34-10 as a 4 ½-point underdog to start 2008. In 2009, Nick Saban’s team will take on another ACC foe in Frank Beamer’s Va. Tech program. This game will be televised by ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET.
LVSC opened ‘Bama as a four-point ‘chalk,’ but most books have moved the number to five or 5 ½. Gamblers will probably be able to get the Hokies on the money line for a potential plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).
Both of these teams feature a heavy emphasis on special teams and defense, so don’t be surprised by a low number for the total. VT’s Tyrod Taylor inherits the starting QB job after splitting time with Sean Glennon the last two seasons. Taylor is a poor man’s Michael Vick in terms of scrambling ability, but his aerial accuracy is a question mark as evidenced by his 2/7 TD-INT ratio in 2008.
Alabama junior QB Greg McElroy will take over the signal-calling duties for the Tide in the wake of John Parker’s Wilson’s departure. Saban’s team returns only four starters on the offensive side of the ball.
ESPN2’s late-night game will come off the board at 10:00 p.m. Eastern when California seeks revenge for a loss at Maryland by hosting the Terrapins in Berkley. LVSC opened the Bears as 17-point home favorites, while the Hilton went with Cal at a pricier 19 ½. By early Monday night, most spots were at 20 ½ or 21.
Remember, Cal had to go into College Park last year for a noon game on the East coast. Ralph Friedgen’s team jumped all over Jeff Tedford’s squad early and held on for a 35-27 win as a 14-point home underdog.
The all-day-and-night action will continue on the West coast at 10:30 when Washington ushers in the Steve Sarkisian Era by hosting LSU as a double-digit underdog. The Huskies went winless in ’08 and saw head coach Ty Willingham take his pink slip. They get star QB Jake Locker back in the fold after he went down last September with a season-ending shoulder injury.
Most books are listing the Bayou Bengals as 15-point road favorites.
On Sunday, there’s a doubleheader starting at 3:30 on ESPN, as Ole Miss makes the one-hour venture (if that) to Memphis to take on the Tigers at the Liberty Bowl. The Rebels have been installed as 17-point road favorites.
Colorado and Colorado St. will collide in the Mile High City at 7:00 p.m. Sunday on FSN. The Buffaloes are 12-point favorites at most betting shops.
Finally on Monday, Rutgers will host Cincinnati in a four o’clock contest on ESPN. The Scarlet Knights were at home in the same time slot on Labor Day last year, only to lose a 24-7 decision to Fresno St. The Bearcats beat RU 13-10 in 2008, but the Scarlet Knights took the cash as 7 ½-point underdogs. Keep in mind that Rutgers finished last season on a seven-game winning streak.
Last but not least, college football’s version of Monday Night Football will take place at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Once upon a time, FSU-Miami was a must-see game that often determined a trip to the national-title game for the winner.
These days both programs are trying to climb out of mediocrity. This could be the last season for Bobby Bowden coaching the Seminoles and if Randy Shannon doesn’t make some noise in ’09, the ‘Canes might also have a new coach at this time next year.
LVSC opened FSU as a four-point ‘chalk’ and most books had the number at 4 ½ by Monday night. ABC will have this telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com
NCF Week 1 opening line report
By ASHTON GREWAL
They say all good things are worth waiting for. Thankfully, oddsmakers gave us the shortest wait ever for college football’s Week 1 lines. Unlike its NFL cousin, the first week lines for college don’t usually come out until the mid or late August.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a company that helps set lines for many big name sportsbooks in Nevada, upped the ante this season by releasing its Week 1 pointspreads just under a month before the season’s opening kickoff.
The first games of the season air on Thursday night with non-conference games like South Carolina at North Carolina State and Oregon at Boise State.
The Broncos are laying 4.5 points against last year’s Pac-10 runner up Oregon.
“Hawaii is probably the only school with a bigger home-field advantage than Boise State,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker with LVSC. “Boise gets about 5 or 5.5 points for its home games. You’ve got to be cautious about the revenge factor in this game, though.”
The Ducks fell 37-32 at home to the Broncos last season, despite entering the game as 10-point favorites.
Texas, No. 2 in the USA Today preseason poll, gives the most points (38) on Saturday, but Seba says Southern Cal’s line was the more difficult one to set.
“We varied a bit on USC. We had some guys as high as 36 and some as low as 30. We decided to go with 32.”
Seba says he doesn’t think the Trojans, who host San Jose State on Sept. 5, will blow as many opponents away this season compared to years past. The inexperience at the quarterback position could impair Pete Carroll’s offense.
One of the more anticipated games on the Week 1 board has Georgia visiting Oklahoma State. LVSC made the Cowboys 4.5-point faves against last year’s preseason No. 1.
“A lot of people are talking about Oklahoma State and pegging them as a surprise team. I don’t see them as a surprise team because of the hype.”
Still, Seba likes the number at 4.5. He says the public’s positive perception of the Cowboys, along with Georgia’s well known losses to the NFL Draft (QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno) make Okie State an easy favorite.
Big 12 bettors should get a good grasp on what life will be like for Mizzou without Chase Daniel under center. The Tigers play an experienced Illinois squad at a neutral site. While Mizzou no longer has its offensive leader, the Fighting Illini return QB Juice Williams and WR Arrelious Benn.
LSVC has Illinois giving 5 points to the Big 12 club.
One of the more interesting Week 1 lines sees potential BCS buster BYU getting 21 points against defending Heisman winner Sam Bradford and Oklahoma.
“The game is taking place on a neutral field (the new Cowboys Stadium), but 90 percent of the fans will be backing the Sooners,” Seba says.
BYU does have a competitive team with starting QB Max Hall back in the fold, but Seba predicts the lack of depth will be the Cougars’ downfall.
“It could very likely be a seven or 10-point game going into the fourth quarter. But with that Oklahoma offense, things can get out of hand in a hurry. BYU will have to throw the ball to keep pace with the Sooners and that could lead to some costly turnovers.”
The public bettors and college football fans are geared for the big games in Week 1, but the contests Seba and his coworkers stay up late worrying about are the lesser known matchups.
“Take North Texas and Ball State,” he says. “North Texas is supposed to have its best team in a decade, but what does that mean? Ball State was a big player in the MAC last year, but what are they going to be like without Nate Davis?”
LVSC sent out Ball State -16 but Seba says it would have been closer to -28 last season.
Over/under lines are still unavailable. Most offshore books are expected to release their lines later this week.