West Virginia at East Carolina
By Judd Hall
Could the Pirates make it two straight upsets?
That is the question on the minds of fans and the gambling public alike. By the looks of where the money is going, there is a line definitely drawn in the stand on this game in Greenville, North Carolina.
West Virginia was installed as the favorite from the onset, starting as a 10 ½-point road “chalk” at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. That line has now shrunk to eight in favor of the Mountaineers. The total has stayed in the 50 to 51 ½ range amongst sportsbooks offshore and in Vegas.
Given that information, you can easily guess that the Mountaineers are getting the public’s blessing as far as the spread goes…Sportsbook.com shows 77 percent of the ATS money is going towards the blue and old gold. Meanwhile, East Carolina is the favorite amongst bettors for the outright upset as 84 percent of the cash is going its way for a return of plus 270 (risk $100 to win $270).
It’s hard to argue with that kind of value on the Pirates when you think they can pull off another upset in the BCS apple cart. What you can debate is how well will ECU be able to stifle the Mountaineers’ offensive attack.
East Carolina had no problems in snuffing out the Hokies’ Sean Glennon, allowing the hurler to connect on 14 of 23 passes for 139 with a pair of interceptions. The Pirates even beat Virginia Tech by its own game last week with a blocked punt for a touchdown in the waning minutes of regulation.
Patrick Pinkney was practically automatic under center for ECU by completing 19 of 23 passes for 211 yards and a score. He was also evading the pressure by rushing 11 times for another 24 yards with a touchdown.
The Pirates’ defense held their own against Virginia Tech as well, allowing just five of 12 third downs to be converted all game long. And letting the Hokies move the chains 12 times total. That’s what happens when you have nine disciplined starters return on defense.
As disciplined as ECU is on defense, they are going to have a problem when taking on the West Virginia and its powerful offense.
Patrick White was on his game against Villanova last Saturday as evidenced by connecting on 25 of 33 passes for 208 yards and five touchdowns. The Mountaineers’ ground weapon, Noel Divine, added 47 yards on nine carries.
West Virginia’s defense did nothing to impress anyone last week against the Wildcats. After all, they allowed 399 yards and saw ‘Nova pick up 28 first downs (WVU got a fresh set of downs just 21 times).
The biggest matchup in this contest is whether or not the Pirates are able to stifle White and the speed his squad possesses.
Sure, West Virginia has Devine to go along with wideouts Jock Sanders and Alric Arnett. Yet the Mountaineers’ offense goes nowhere without White taking the snaps. Look no further than WVU’s defeat at home to Pittsburgh last winter (five of 10 passing for 50 yards with a dislocated thumb) for proof of his importance to this program.
Expect East Carolina to try and bring a constant pass rush in this contest, while keeping the secondary in zone coverage. What this will do is force White to hold onto the ball as much as possible to either run on his own or complete short passes. This gameplan sounds good on paper, but you have to remember that the ‘Neers return all five starters on the offensive line. That means White should have plenty of time to find an open receiver.
History for the Pirates isn’t exactly a gimme to win on their home turf in openers as dictated by posting a 10-7 SU record. However, the home team has been able to cover the line at a nice clip, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight contests. The ‘under’ has hit in the last three meetings as well.
ESPN will be broadcasting this tilt at 4:30 pm EDT.
vegasinsider.com
LOOKING FOR AN ANGLE?
By Gary Olshan
Navy at BALL STATE (Friday)...Navy gung ho for rematch following bitter 34-31 OT loss in Annapolis LY. Middies, who rolled up 521 YR, missed 32-yd. FG on last play in regulation, then fumbled in OT. Ball State kicked game-winning 24-yd. FG in extra possession.
Stanford at ARIZONA STATE...After covering 7 of previous 8 in series, Stanford has been smashed in last two vs. ASU, losing by combined 79-6 margin. Sun Devils have been good bully in Tempe, going 16-6 as DD home chalk since ‘98 (9-1 L3Ys!).
UL Monroe at ARKANSAS...UL Monroe is 12-6-1 as a road dog since ‘05, and Warhawks have covered 5 of past 8 vs. SEC. Arkansas has major lookahead vs. Texas next week.
Northwestern at DUKE...NW in nasty mood following 20-14 home loss vs. Duke LY, snapping Blue Devils 21-game losing streak, and eventually costing 6-6 Wildcats a bowl bid. NW outgained Duke 506-309, but bogged down in red zone, exemplified by QB Bacher’s incomplete pass on 4th-and-goal from Blue Devil 7-yd. line in final minute. New HC Cutcliffe taking over downtrodden Duke, which is 3-14 vs. spread last 17.
Kent State at IOWA STATE...Kent State QB Edelman excited for back-to-back trips to Jack Trice Stadium after completing 17 of 28 for 161 yds. & adding 75 YR in 23-14 upset in LY’s lidlifter. Edelman was only 100% healthy for the one game vs. ISU in all of ‘07, as he was hampered by torn PCL vs. Kentucky in 2nd week, and then had season end due to fractured arm in 8th week. Cyclones are 0-4 as favorite last 2Ys.
Troy at LSU...Undaunted Troy no pushover in “play for pay” games, as Trojans are 8-4 as a DD dog vs. ACC, Big XII & SEC squads since ‘04, including 3-1 mark LY (2-1 vs. SEC). LSU just 50% as DD chalk in Tiger Stadium last decade, including 24-20 win vs. Troy back in ‘04.
Unlv at UTAH...Utah on vendetta following 27-0 setback in Las Vegas LY (1st shutout since ‘93!), snapping Utes 11-game series win streak. Utah was apparently still on cloud nine following astounding 44-7 upset vs. UCLA in Salt Lake City week before. Utes are 6-1 as DD home chalk since ‘06, while UNLV 3-9 as DD road dog since ‘05.
goldsheet.com
WEEK ONE WARNING SHOTS!
By Bruce Marshall
Alabama...Look out, the Tide might be back! Saturday’s dominating performance against Clemson at the Georgia Dome might have been the most impressive team effort of the weekend. Nick Saban’s defense deserves special kudos for completely dominating the Tiger offensive front, stuffing the Clemson ground game and pressuring Tiger QB Cullen Harper all night. Remember, the Tide’s six losses were all by 7 points or fewer last season, and a star-studded freshman class looks as if it is ready to make an impact right away. Suddenly, Bama rates a serious challenger to LSU and Auburn in the SEC West...as if that loaded league needs another heavyweight team to emerge.
Arizona...Hmmm. It was only Idaho, but 70-0 is 70-0, and despite the fact the Vandals were hopelessly outclassed, it’s interesting to note that Arizona went for the jugular when it had the chance in its opener. Which could be significant handicapping news for the Wildcats, who historically have had their problems laying points (especially big points) while proving pesky as an underdog, the classic “playing to the level of the oppostion” example. But with HC Mike Stoops definitely on the hot seat in Tucson, perhaps this UA edition is going to take no prisoners when the opportunities arise, which could happen again Saturday night when defense-shy MAC rep Toledo (which allowed a hefty 39 ppg in ‘07) pays a visit. There apparently is enough offense at Stoops’ disposal to run up scores, especially if soph RB Nic Grigsby provides the sort of explosive dimension he displayed against Idaho when erupting for 169 YR...in the first half, in the rain to boot. And in his second year piloting the Texas Tech-like spread imported from Lubbock by o.c. Sonny Dykes, QB Willie Tuitama is poised to post some big numbers of his own this season. Watch these guys.
California...It is not lost on most Pac-10 observers how the Bears have proven such a poor pointspread proposition in recent years. But the emergence of RS soph QB Kevin Riley, the hero of last New Year’s Eve’s exciting Armed Forces Bowl win over Air Force, could be changing that equation in Berkeley. With, first, Joe Ayoob in 2005, and then Nate Longshore for most of the last two seasons, HC Jeff Tedford has not had the sort of QB production he had earlier in his career, both at Cal (with Aaron Rodgers and Kyle Boller) and previous stops as an offensive assistant at Oregon and Fresno State, where he tutored several future pros (such as Joey Harrington and Trent Dilfer). With a real QB once more, the Bears might be able to growl, and the pop exhibited by coast-to-coast RBs Jahvid “The Jet” Best (right) and Shane “Ben” Vereen in the opener against Michigan State (when both went over 100 YR) suggests the good times might be ready to roll again in Berkeley.
Ole Miss...Several SEC scouts suspected the Rebels could be a vastly-improved tea this season, simply because of the coaching upgrade from the dismissed Ed Orgeron to Houston Nutt, who despite being unwelcome any longer at Arkansas remains a respected presence on the sidelines. Orgeron didn’t leave a completely bare cupboard, however, and with Texas transfer QB Jevan Snead hopefully providing an ugprade at that important position, hopes were high for Nutt’s debut in Oxford even before the Rebs easily disposed of recently-pesky regional rival Memphis in the opener. Nutt also unveiled his new “Wild Rebel” formation vs. the Tigers, a shotgun look similar to the one he used with success at Arkansas when featuring RB Darren McFadden getting direct snaps. Of the 10 snaps out of “Wild Rebel” vs. Memphis, Ole Miss gained wa whopping 148 yards, most of those by slippery Dexter McClusker, who gained 125 total yards and got Ole Miss rolling with a 32-yard TD run out of the formation to stake the Rebs to a 14-7 lead they never relinquished.
Oregon...So, how many QBs does HC Mike Bellotti have at his disposal, anyway? The various stories and blogs that routinely overplay injury situations were lamenting Bellotti’s plight when likely starting QB Nate Costa was lost for the season with a knee injury prior to the opener vs. Washington. No worry for Bellotti, however, as returnee Justin Roper, one of the heroes of December’s Sun Bowl romp past South Florida, was still around to take snaps, but when Roper went down with a concussion in the second quarter, Bellotti merely turned to juco Jeremiah Masoli and true frosh Chris Harper, as the Ducks pulled away in the second half for a 44-10 rout over northwest rival Washington, marking the fifth straight win by the Ducks over the Huskies by at least a 20-point margin (and don’t think that doesn’t hurt the prideful Husky backers in Seattle). And with an aggressive, veteran defense, perhaps Oregon will emerge as USC’s most significant challenger in the Pac-10 this season.
Vanderbilt...Sometimes, the whole ”returning starters” argument is much ado about nothing. Many teams replace departed starters with players who have seen a fair share of playing time, and the transition to the new group of starters is often not nearly as dramatic as some believe. Vandy proved a good example in its dominating 34-13 opening win last Thursday at Miami-Ohio, its “new” front 7 stuffing the RedHawks and applying constant heat to QB Daniel Raudabaugh, while a rebuilt offensive line opened plenty of holes (to the tune of 269 YR) against what was supposed to be one of the MAC’s best defensive units. Along the way, sr. QB Chris Nickson, hampered by injury last season, sparked the attack and treated the Commodore backers who saw flashes of his potential in 2006 when running for a career best 169 YR and displaying heretofore absent poise in the pocket. And HC Bobby Johnson made good on his promise to make more use of versatile CB D.J. Moore on the offensive end, with the RedHawks forced to pay attention whenever he entered the game. Moore, the “Deion Sanders of Vanderbilt” if not the entire SEC, further confirmed his status as a top playmaker with a 91-yard punt return to set up the Dores’ second TD in the first quarter. That return was the second longest in team history. Although the Commodores will be facing tougher tests vs. SEC entries in the weeks and months ahead, Vandy doesn’t look like it will be any pushover this fall.
goldsheet.com
Miami at Florida
By Brian Edwards
Normally I write an objective preview, weighing the pros and cons of betting one way or the other. Not this time, not this game.
This preview is all about informing gamblers that the Gators are going to deliver woodshed treatment at The Swamp on Saturday night. It says here that you can count on it.
Yes, the number is huge. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) as an 18 ½-point favorite with a total of 50. Since then, heavy public action on UF has sent the number north of 21.
As of Friday morning, most books had the Gators in the 22-23 range. Miami (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) is such a huge underdog that there’s no money-line price to be found.
Just how long has it been since the Hurricanes have been such heavy underdogs? They were 22-point ‘dogs at Florida St. in 1997. There was a good reason for it, too, as the Seminoles issued cream-cheese treatment, spanking UM by a 47-0 count.
Since 1980, the ‘Canes have been underdogs of 20 points or more just twice. The other time was also in Tallahassee in 1995 when the ‘Noles won (and covered) 41-17 as 20-point ‘chalk.’
Florida hasn’t tasted victory against Miami since 1985 when Kerwin Bell led the Gators to a 35-23 triumph at the Orange Bowl. That statement is a tad misleading since the bitter rivals have only met six times in the last 23 years, but the point is still valid – UF fans aren’t just starving for a win over Miami; they are salivating at the prospects of an absolute shellacking.
UM beat UF in ’86 and ’87, but then the rivalry went doormat for more than a decade. Starting at the 2001 Sugar Bowl, these adversaries have met four times and on each occasion, the ‘Canes have dealt the Gators a painful defeat.
It started in New Orleans on Bourbon Street – literally. A few days before the Sugar Bowl, the teams brawled in the French Quarter and Florida All-American defensive end Alex Brown came away with a black eye.
Steve Spurrier’s team took a 20-17 lead against Miami midway through the third quarter on a long touchdown run by Earnest Graham. However, the ‘Canes would score 20 unanswered points and win 37-20.
Two seasons later in the second game of Ron Zook’s tenure, Miami held a 27-16 advantage late in the third quarter. UF appeared poised to make it a one-possession game when it drove into the red zone and had a first-and-goal opportunity. But two plays later, Rex Grossman threw a pick-six and the game was over for all intents and purposes.
When the horn sounded, Miami had a 41-16 victory. Therefore, the Gators lost by 25 points in Zook’s second home game. During Spurrier’s 12-year tenure, UF lost five home games by a combined 25 points.
The following season, Florida went to the Orange Bowl as a 14-point underdog, but it took a commanding 33-10 lead in the third quarter. It wasn’t to be, though.
Former Gator Brock Berlin, who transferred to UM when he couldn’t beat out Grossman, guided the ‘Canes to an improbable comeback. When Miami completed its rally for a 38-33 victory, Berlin mocked the UF faithful with a sarcastic Gator chop.
Next, the teams were matched up at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta to conclude the 2004 campaign. Zook had been fired and then hired by Illinois. Urban Meyer was in place to supplant Zook, but he was getting Utah ready to play Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl.
With Charlie Strong as the interim coach, the Gators got drilled 27-10 in a lackluster effort.
And that brings us to 2008. FSU and Miami, perennial top 10 teams during the ‘80s, ‘90s and the earlier part of this decade, are uncharacteristically down. Meanwhile, the Gators are in top form, considered a serious candidate to win their second national title in three years.
Miami is coming off its worst season in 30 years, limping to a 5-7 record in Randy Shannon’s first season at the helm. The Gators are clearly the best program in the Sunshine State, yet they haven’t had the chance to prove that to Miami on the field.
They get that chance Saturday night, and let’s not underestimate the “night” factor. The Swamp is electric under the lights and the ‘Canes will be greeted by a raucous crowd.
Florida opened the season by trashing Hawaii 56-10 as a 35-point favorite last Saturday. The Gators were held scoreless in both the first and fourth quarters, but they dented the scoreboard for nine touchdowns in the second and third.
Even with pre-season All-Americans Percy Harvin and Brandon Spikes out of the lineup, the Warriors were no match for UF. The Gators displayed a pair of new weapons in redshirt freshman RB Chris Rainey and true freshman RB Jeff Demps.
Both players possess one main ingredient – speed. Rainey had six carries for 58 yards, including a 33-yard TD run. Demps had just two carries but went for 76 yards, including an electrifying 62-yard TD scamper. Brandon James was also in the mix, scoring on a one-yard plunge and a 74-yard punt return.
Miami beat up on Charleston Southern 52-7 in its non-lined opener last Thursday. Graig Cooper had a 14-yard TD run and also scored on a 66-yard punt return. True freshman QB Jacory Harris ran for a score and threw for another. Javarris James led UM in rushing with 73 yards on just 12 totes.
Harris got the starting nod last week, but Shannon is expected to go with redshirt freshman Robert Marve as his starter this week. Marve served a one-game suspension against Charleston So.
As for the Gators, they are expected to have both Spikes and Harvin back in the mix.
ABC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--I like the Gators here because I feel they’re that much better than Miami. The revenge thing certainly helps as well, and this spot also fits another of my favorite handicapping strategies – fading a freshman QB making his first career start on the road. In this scenario, we not only have that, but we have Marve taking his first collegiate snap of any sort at The Swamp in front of a frenzied crowd.
--According to VI’s Marc Lawrence, Urban Meyer’s teams (at UF, Utah and Bowling Green) are 18-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home against non-conference foes.
--When favored by 20 points or more during Meyer’s tenure, the Gators are 6-5 ATS.
--West Virginia is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a road favorite.
--Rice owns a 14-5 spread record in its last 19 games as an underdog. The Owls, who have one of the best QB-WR tandems in the country in Chase Clement and Jarett Dillard, are plus three at Memphis.
vegasinsider.com.
What bettors need to know: Miami vs. Florida
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ
Miami Hurricanes at Florida Gators (-22½, 51)
A Rivalry Renewed
After facing off every year except one between 1938 and 1987, these programs have met only four times since, twice in bowl games. Miami won the last meeting in the 2004 Peach Bowl and has won the last six in a row dating back to 1985.
The teams are not scheduled to play again until 2013.
Sporadic or not, this is an intense rivalry due to the fact that so many of the players competed with and against one another in high school.
“I guarantee you there are phone calls going back and forth between Miami players and Florida players because they know each other. That’s the rivalry,” said Miami coach Randy Shannon.
Tune-ups Last Week
Both teams worked out the kinks last week against inferior competition.
Florida sputtered a bit early on offense before rolling to a 56-10 win over a rebuilding Hawaii team. RB/KR Brandon Jones had 121 all-purpose yards including his third career punt return for a touchdown.
Miami took out Charleston Southern 52-7.
Miami Youth Movement
After falling off the last few years (12-13 SU in ‘06-‘07), Miami appears to be retooling with a new crop of frontline recruits.
At the skill positions, key new underclassmen such as RBs Graig Cooper and Derron Thomas as well as WRs Laron Byrd, Theoron Collier and Leonard Hankerson have contributed a new element of explosiveness and depth.
Defensively, the ‘Canes look to be much improved, including a LB corps that appears much quicker than recent editions.
Florida Stacked
While Miami should be one of the more improved teams of 2008, Florida is firmly entrenched as one of the elite programs in the country.
The Gators are stocked with talent across the board and they possess the experienced leadership and big game seasoning that the Canes lack.
As if QB Tim Tebow doesn’t present enough problems for the Miami D, the Gators will also welcome back Percy Harvin, a fixture on most preseason All-American squads. With Harvin a threat to score every time he touches the ball, it will be impossible for the Canes to sell out and stack the box against Tebow.
Baptism by Fire for Miami Frosh QB
Miami redshirt Freshman Robert Marve won the starting job in camp but was suspended for the first game. He’ll be seeing his first action as a college QB on Saturday.
While Marve is a blue chip talent (Florida Mr. Football in 2006) and has impressed coaches and teammates with his poise and maturity, he’ll be taking the field for the first time in the most hostile of environments against one of the top teams in the nation.
Expect Miami to come out with a conservative approach, emphasizing the ground game and not asking Marve to do too much in order to limit rookie mistakes.
And don’t look for a more experienced alternative on the Miami bench- Marve’s backup is true Freshman Jacory Harris.
The Swamp
While the Gators have not been unbeatable in the Urban Meyer era, they are very close to it on their home field.
Meyer has compiled a 19-1 SU record at The Swamp with the only loss coming to Auburn last season. Even so, the Gators finished up 5-1 against the spread at home in 2007.
This is a daunting challenge for a young Miami team that is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on the road.
"I know how good Miami's been over the years and how dominant they were,'' said Florida defensive lineman Duke Lemmens. "They have a long winning streak in the series, but we're hoping to change that and we're hoping to show them a little something about The Swamp.''
Line Movement
The line opened at 20.5 and has climbed in recent days to its current mark of 22.5.
After opening at 52.5, the total was immediately bet down to 51.5, subsequently went as low as 50.5, and now has settled at 51.
College Cram Session: Week 2
By DAVID PAYNE
Something that stuck with me from last week’s drivel: Professional sports bettor David Malinksy emphasized the importance of understanding why the line has been set at a particular number. For example, if you know the starting quarterback is out, so do the oddsmakers, and that is why the line is set where it is. Recognize this, and then determine whether bookmakers are accurate in accessing the impact in accordance with the line.
Remember, oddsmakers like Pete Korner of the Las Vegas Sports Club set the line with the information they have available at the time.
“It's up to the bookmakers to change that line, be it with money or on air if he thinks an element has changed the value of the line before he gets money coming down and interpret the value of changing factors as they occur over the week,” explains Korner.
News that came out in the middle of the week that did not immediately affect the line:
Georgia Tech at Boston College (-7): The Yellow Jackets announced Thursday that two of their starting linebackers would miss Saturday’s ACC opener.
Oregon State at Penn State (-13): Joe Paterno announced on his Thursday night radio show that two of his starting defensive linemen, including first team All-Big Ten selection Maurice Evans, and a reserve tight end were suspended for the Oregon State game. The Nittany Lions opened as 13-point favorites against the Beavers. The line surged to as high as 16.5 at some books.
Tropical Storm Hanna: Take a glance at what the opening totals of these games, which are expected to be impacted by Hanna, and see it they’ve been properly adjusted.
1. West Virginia at East Carolina, 4:30 p.m.: Opening total — 49. Forecast: rain ending late afternoon.
2. Ole Miss at Wake Forest, 3:30 p.m.: Opening total — 46.5. Forecast: rain ending late afternoon.
3. Northwestern at Duke, 7 p.m.: Opening total— 44. Forecast: rain ending late in the evening.
4. UConn at Temple, 12 p.m.: Opening total — 38. Forecast: rain throughout the day.
New clock rules
Scoring was up slightly, but plays were down significantly and games were a little shorter in Week 1. Does that mean it’s time to jump on the under? Not necessarily.If the trend continues, the oddsmakers will adjust way before you do. But do take a close look at games that are expected to be blowouts.
“I think if you want to burn the clock it becomes easier with the 40-second play clock,” said Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops at his weekly press conference. “If you get to the last four minutes of the game and you only have a limited number of possessions you need to use all of it, and we will."
Question of the day: Should you bet the same amount on every game you play?
I do, because I want to feel equally strong about each of my plays. That never happens.
Here’s what does happen: I end up dropping as much on my just-because-it’s-on-TV bet as I do on a game I’ve actually done some real handicapping on. I sleep with a severe lack of discipline.
Anyway, money management articles generally bore me. I’d much rather hear it from you guys. Should I bet the same amount on every game, keeping in mind my discipline issues?
Good luck everyone. It will always be our turn to catch a break tomorrow.
INDIAN COWBOY'S NCAAF RESEARCH
Big East
Connecticut vs. Temple
I had this game as an Upset alert from the early part of this week in part because Temple's great performance in thier first game by going on the road to do so well as this team is returning a wealth of starters. Of course, the line opened up at a little over a touchdown, and now has steadily gone down to 6.5 as Temple is the home dog. Connecticut did not play much of a competition in their first game either, and the total is a striking low 38. This could be in part due to the incliment weather that my buddy Dallas let me know of. But, usually, with an active dog, the game goes over as that is a principle that I Have been writing about for the past 4 years in depth. Rememeber, Connecticut did beat Hofstra 35-3 in their last ballgame, but also note that Tyler Lorenzen through for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in the last ballgame - as it was the Connecticut running game that scored the points (another reason why the line is low as Connecticut likes ball control and to run). Temple though just destroyed Army and lost to this tema by just 4 last year and this is a game they can get revenge, at home and the have significantly better quarterback play and offense here.
Akron vs. Syracuse
I think it's been a long time since Syracuse has been favored in a ball game, period. It actually amuses me that they are actually giving up points to a team. Note that roughly 60% of the public still favors Syracuse coming into this game, these 2 teams have not played each other at all in recent memory, in fact, I don't know if they have ever locked horns in their football history, Syracuse comes off a 20 point loss on the road at Northwestern which of course, they failed to cover, Akron comes off a 21 point loss on the road at Wisconsin. Note, that this Akron team is sound, they have a great QB in Chris Jacquemain who threw for 2 touchdowns and 0 picks at Wisconsin, a top 15 team in the nation, and actually completed more than 60% of his passes while Andrew Robinson did not throw a TD and threw a pick against Northwestern. In fact, he barely passed for over a 100 yards. Syracuse actually returns more players with 7 on offense (similar to Akron) but 6 on defense while Akron only returns 4. Of course, this is no good if your returning starters are not that good - lol. Having said this, despite the total going under since opening, I simply can't all see all that much defense here as both teams should have some success scoring.
West Virginia vs. ECU
We're about to find out how good ECU really is. ECU had a huge win over VT at home against an in-state rival, having said that, I was never high on VT this year, last year or any year for that matter. I am high on WVU though as I love their coaching from top to bottom. The line has gone down from an opening of -10.5 all the way to -7.5 and similar to App State not surprising LSU this time as the word is out, the same is here for WVU as the word is out and this team will NOT take them lightly. WVU beat this team 48-7 last year at home, of course this ECU went to Hawaii and beat Boise State if you remember in a bowl game recently so they do have some remaining talent and they showed it last week for certain, WVU beat Villanova by 27 at home in a game that didn't have a spread in week 1, having said this, I lean on the over here as I do think ECU will be competitive, but will likely remain a bystander to see how this game shapes up as it is still very early in the season to have a passionate stance one way or another on either of these teams.
Big 12
Kent State vs. Iowa State
I know, this is not a very sexy game compared to the other game on the board, having said that, note that Kent State lost to Boston College earlier this year 0-21 and this is a proud team that is returning 14 of its 22 starters from last year, note that Iowa State is returning 11 of its 22 starters from last year, roughly half the team. The reason why this game appealed to me is the fact that Kent State is 0-1 already and considering that this team had high expectations for this season, it would take a lot for this fairly veteran group to start the season 0-2. Having said that, Iowa State has plenty of revenge from last year's season opener when they won on the road by 9. The total has been steadily moving down as well, look for Kent State to play well today as this is a more vet team that comes off a loss and Iowa State comes off a big victory, albeit a Division II school, but still ranked in the top 20 in division schools, remember this is the same SDSU that beat Minnesotta recently - I wouldnt' be surprised to see Kent State either win outright as they have a great QB in Julian while Iowa State's QB job is a bit more up in there, I think Kent State likely will be in better sync today, wouldn't be surprised if they lose by a field goal either but still manage to cover.
Big 10
Miami of Ohio vs. Michigan
You know, I actually sincerely thought of taking Miami of Ohio over Michigan today, but then I thought better. After all, Miami of Ohio comes off a tough loss at home, in fact, an embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt (who by the way is now 2-0) as this team was emerging last year, Michigan is also ticked off from their season opening loss to Utah (one of my plays and a very good team as that was not an upset really, as Utah is a great team that was 9-4 last year and had returned 18 starters to boot), but Michigan is a very young team and Rodriguez is trying to instill his high flying offense with a different crop of players that wasn't his choosing for the most part. I certainly can't wager on Miami of Ohio, but in the same token, I don't trust Michigan's young crop either.
Minnesota vs. Bowling Green
This is going to be a great game to watch if you get a chance to track it. Note, that the total here is 56 as both teams should have their success in scoring points. I understand that Bowling Green beat Pittsburgh, but here is a newsflash, Pittsburgh stinks. It amazes me how this team gets all the press only to get embarrassed over and over again as this team simply blows. If you remember, Bowling Green also beat this team 32-31 in overtime. Thus, Minny undoubtedly has revenge coming into this game and they beat Northern Illinois by about 4 and did not cover the 10 point spread. Having said that, they could have just been looking ahead for this game. This team returns a solid core of starters, 7 on offense and 7 on defense while Bowling Green returns 6 on offense while 8 on defense which explains why more ballgames for BG would in fact, likely go under this year. As per this game, I expect it to be competitive all the way through.
SEC
Miami vs. Florida
These 2 teams have not met since 1994 and this is actually College Game Day's ballgame today, in fact, Florida has not beaten Miami since 1985. That is likely to end today as if I know about this stat, UF certainly does. Miami rolls in as basically a 3 touchdown dog here and note that Miami in my mind has not gotten significantly better than last year. This team did beat Charleston Southern - of course, they are also a division 2 team as well. Florida on the other hand, destroyed Hawaii which basically was a division 2 team as well as they had their third stringer in but not many knew about it, it's alright, because I drilled it for a pod. Look, Jacoby Harris is a good looking kid for Miami as he can thrown some quality passes, but when he faces this Florida defense he is in for a rude awakening. Note, that the betting public is 50/50 on this ballgame. Harvin and Spikes are both listed as probable in the latest injury reports, so expect them to play. Meyer will not look to just beat this team, but basically embarrass them likely. This game is on ESPN and I can see Florida winning this game by a significant margin.