NCAAF: Week 4 Rewind
By Judd Hall
If there is anything that we can hold as a certainty in college football after Week 4, it’s that there is no certainty at all. The week started with No. 4 Mississippi falling in Columbia to the Gamecocks, but that was a mere precursor for what Saturday was yet to bring.
The Associated Press Top 25 went a combined 16-6 straight up against either unranked or lower ranked foes this past Saturday. However, three of those losses were Top 10 programs that fell by the wayside.
Our biggest upset of the evening came in Happy Valley where No. 5 Penn State went down to the Hawkeyes as a 9 ½-point home “chalk,” 21-10. Things looked good for the Nittany Lions early as they racked up a 10-0 first quarter lead. Iowa controlled the game from there on out. The Hawkeyes sacked Daryll Clark for a safety to get them on the board. PSU went on to convert just four out of its 13 third downs from the second quarter on. Clark was picked off three times, two of which were cashed in for a combined 10 points by Iowa. This was the second straight upset for the Hawkeyes over Penn State and their seven win in the last eight head-to-head matchups.
The upsets didn’t start in State College, Pennsylvania though. Eighteenth-ranked Florida State got to play host to the upstart Bulls as a 14-point home favorite. Everything looked like a perfect storm for the Seminoles to cash in with a big win. The ‘Noles were coming off of big beatdown of Brigham Young in Provo the previous weekend and USF just lost starting QB Matt Grothe for the season. All that meant is B.J. Daniels got to show what South Florida fans could look forward to as he ran for 126 yards and threw two touchdowns to beat FSU, 17-7.
The Bulls’ defense also did their part in holding Florida State to just 288 total yards of offense, while moving the chains just twice on 12 third-down opportunities. The only thing better than the win in Tallahassee for fans was that bettors that took USF to win outright were treated to a plus-425 return (risk $100 to win $425).
Things weren’t much better in Blacksburg for the Hurricanes’ showdown against Virginia Tech as 2 ½-point road faves. A torrential downpour denied both sides a chance to find its rhythm, but still afforded the No. 11 Hokies an impressive 31-7 victory over No. 9 Miami.
Miami converted on third down just once in the 11 chances they had against the Hokies, which could be blamed mostly on the monsoon. The most telling stat was that the Hurricanes had three drives where they gained more than 40 yards. Yet only once in those three sets did they find the end zone; the other two times ended with a turnover on downs. Should be fun to hear the excuses of the Hurricanes’ fans this week, yes?
California was another team that bit the dust on Saturday afternoon. The Golden Bears entered their game with Oregon as six-point road favorites. They walked out of Autzen Stadium with their tails between their legs after getting pummeled 42-3. Kevin Riley passed for 123 yards, but was sacked four times. Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best will have to become a spin doctor to explain why he only gained 55 yards on 16 carries. Cal’s secondary will also be standing at the podium to tell us how Jeremiah Masoli completed 21 of 25 passes for 253 yards and three scores.
Not all of the games on Saturday would force fans and bettors to bone up on their Russian Roulette rules. No, some of the games would merely make them wear a path in their nice Berber carpeting.
Cincinnati wasn’t expected to have too many issues against the Bulldogs. After all, the Bearcats were listed as 17-point home favorites. Tony Pike guided their quick-strike attack brilliantly with three touchdown passes and 300 yards through the air. Yet Cincy only won this game 28-20 over Fresno State. That had a lot to do with running back Ryan Matthews for the ‘Dogs. Matthews picked up 145 yards on the ground, while the team combined for 290 total rushing yards. This will definitely pick up betting against the likes of the Bulls or the Fighting Illini as the year progresses.
In Ann Arbor, the Wolverines hadn’t lost to Indiana since LBJ was in the White House. Michigan needed Tate Forcier to find Martavious Odoms in the end zone to hold off the Hoosiers as a 19-point home favorite, 36-33. Indiana actually outgained the Wolverines 467-372 and won the turnover battle 2-1. What killed the Hoosiers here was getting into the red zone three times in the second quarter and walking away with nine points. There is no excuse for Indiana to not have won this game.
The Bayou Bengals had their hands full in Starkville against Mississippi State as 12 ½-point road favorites. The Bulldogs won the yardage battle (374-263), third-down efficiency (LSU, 2-13; MSU, 8-19), but still wound up losing 30-26 on a goal line stand by Louisiana State. To be honest, the Tigers would not have won this game had it not been for the turnovers. Mississippi State turned the ball over four times in the first half, resulting in 10 points, which was just enough to help Les Miles appear to be a decent coach once again.
People were expecting a shootout of Arena Football-like proportions when the Red Raiders traveled to Houston. What they got instead was the Cougars driving 95 yards in the final six minutes to win as 1 ½-point home pups, 29-28. Case Keenum completed 38 of 58 passes for 435 yards and a touchdown. But more importantly, Keenum crossed the goal line on a four-yard run that gave Houston its second win over a Big XII program in 2009.
We can’t forget about the No. 1 Gators, who dropped 31 points in the opening quarter en route to a 41-7 win as 20 ½-point road faves versus Kentucky. While the outcome was nice for bettors since Florida covered, it may have come at a price. Tim Tebow was knocked out of the game the third quarter due to a teammate’s knee to his head. Tebow got off the field on his own, but was taken to a Lexington hospital for observations. It was a rough week for the starting QB as he’s been hit with a respiratory illness that caused him and other players to take a separate flight to Kentucky. Odds are good he’ll be ready in time for Florida’s next game, an Oct. 10 battle in Baton Rouge with LSU.
vegasinsider.com
College Football Week 4: What We Learned
By: Rocketman Sports
Miami is not quite ready to be a national contender:
Two Thursdays ago, the entire sports betting world saw the Miami Hurricanes absolutely dominate the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in a 33-17 blowout victory. Then the following Saturday everyone saw Virginia Tech struggle mightily on the offensive side of the ball against Nebraska at home. When last weeks line came out, the betting public was all over the Hurricanes after what they witnessed from the previous weeks performances by both teams. The public moved the line from a pick to Miami -3 but on Saturday the wise guys swooped in and took the added value on Virginia Tech +3. Once again the sharps were right and the publics ability to focus only on one what they saw in one game padded the profits of bookmakers in Las Vegas and offshore. I know Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country but Miami was completely outplayed on both sides of the ball. Jacory Harris didnt look like the Heisman candidate that everyone was building him up to be as went just 9 of 25 for 150 yards and an interception. Virginia Tech out gained Miami by 161 yards and pounded the ball down the Miami defenses throat for 272 yards rushing. The Hokies were superior in all three phases of the game and proved Miami is not ready to be considered an elite team. They looked unmotivated, intimidated, and didnt play with any type of swagger that you would expect a Top 10 team to play with in such a big game. Its apparent that the Hurricanes are maybe a year away from contending for a national title due to their inexperience. Remember this is a team made up almost entirely of freshman and sophomores. Miami is still talented but not as good as everyone hyped them up to be.
Iowa is the dark horse to win the Big 10:
The Penn State Nittany Lions were seeking revenge from Iowas upset victory last year that ruined the Nittany Lions chances at a national title. The stage was set for a big win for Penn State playing in front of over 100,000 screaming fans dressed in white to white out the Hawkeyes. Yet Iowa was able to come away with the victory. Iowas defense was extremely impressive holding the Penn State offense to just 10 points and 307 yards rushing. With the win, Iowa moved to 4-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread. Happy Valley is an extremely difficult place to play and when you can go on the road at night and come away with an 11 point victory that says a lot about your team. Iowa is built around defense and running the football, the two areas that propelled them passed the Nittany Lions. Iowa rushed for 163 yards on 37 carries. Richard Stanzi threw two interceptions but the exceptional defense was able to hold its own. If Stanzi can improve, the Hawkeyes could be a team to watch in the Big 10. The two biggest challenges for them will be games at home against Michigan and then a road trip to Columbus to play the Buckeyes. I like this Hawkeye team but I dont think theyll be able to get past the Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium but then again no one expected them to prevail in Happy Valley.
Cal and Ole Miss don't look like Top 5 teams:
This past weekend was full of upsets and both Cal and Ole Miss were unable to prove that they were worthy of being ranked in the Top 5 in the country. First on Thursday night, Ole Miss got its first real challenge of the season against a very impressive South Carolina team. The ole ball coach, Steve Spurrier had his troops ready to play and the Gamecocks were able to win outright as 4½ point underdogs. What was most impressive about South Carolina was the way their defense played against a very potent Mississippi offense. They gave up just 10 points and held Ole Miss to just 248 yards TOTAL! The heralded quarterback Jevan Snead was completely bottled up as he went just 7 for 21 and 107 yards passing. South Carolina is now a wallet stuffing 4-0 ATS putting them amongst the most profitable teams to bet on thus far this season.
Cal on the other hand got absolutely embarrassed by Oregon in Eugene on Saturday afternoon. California were 5½ point favorites but lost by a whopping margin of 42-3. I had a little concern about the California defense heading into this game as they were exposed a bit against Minnesota but they got demolished by the Ducks offense yielding 524 yards. The Golden Bears gave up 236 yards rushing and were only able rush for just 77 yards themselves. Heisman trophy candidate Jahvid Best was held to 55 yards on just 16 carries. The Oregon defense looked very impressive and now Oregon has knocked off two straight ranked opponents in the last two weeks. After struggling in their first two games, they bounce back to 2-2 ATS and 3-1 SU. Cal meanwhile is 2-1-1 ATS and 3-1 SU.