Week 5 Rewind
By Brian Edwards
Whether or not Miami is back by The U’s lofty standards will be determined by what happens in its next eight games. But on Saturday night in South Florida, the Hurricanes played like it was the ‘old days’ and remained a player in the national-title picture by beating Oklahoma 21-20 as 7 ½-point home underdogs.
Bettors like me collected a delicious plus-260 money-line payment by backing Randy Shannon’s team to win outright. The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 51 ½-point total.
One week after getting spanked 31-7 at Va. Tech, Miami responded with the biggest win of Shannon’s brief three-year tenure. The victory was the third in a four-game gauntlet (at FSU, vs. Ga. Tech, at Va. Tech and vs. OU) that many – like me – felt UM would be fortunate to escape with a 2-2 ledger.
Things didn’t look good early against the Sooners, who jumped out to a 10-0 lead. But Miami cut the deficit to 10-7 on an 18-yard TD pass from Jacory Harris to Jimmy Graham, the former basketball player who had two crucial dropped passes in Blacksburg last week.
Harris threw two more scoring strikes in the third quarter to put the ‘Canes in front by a 21-10 margin. The Sooners would get to within 21-20 with a little more than four minutes remaining, but they couldn’t get the ball back after three Miami first downs.
Now let’s talk about the next eight games for the ‘Canes, who host Florida A&M next week before a trip to Orlando to face UCF. Unless Harris gets hurt, there’s an excellent chance Miami could be favored from here on out. The toughest tests look like vs. Clemson, at Wake Forest, at North Carolina and at USF.
Remember, the ‘Canes won’t be in the ACC title game unless Va. Tech loses a pair of future conference games. The Hokies could lose at Ga. Tech, but they look like favorites (again, assuming no major injuries) in every other game. Frank Beamer’s team won 34-26 Saturday at Duke, although the Blue Devils took the cash as 17-point home underdogs.
In the other marquee matchup of Week 5, USC dealt out woodshed treatment in a 30-3 win at California. The Bears, a top 10 squad going into Week 4, have been outscored 72-6 the last two weeks. The Trojans took the cash as 4 ½-point road favorites.
Is it time to call Auburn a contender or could it still be a pretender because its early-season schedule has been suspect? A valid case for either label can be made. What’s not up for discussion, however, is whether or not Gene Chizik’s team is a profit producer.
Auburn owns a 5-0 straight-up record and is now 4-1 ATS after winning 26-22 at Tennessee as a 2 ½-point underdog. The Tigers closed at plus-120 on the money line and the 48 combined points stayed ‘under’ the total that had gone down to 49 after spending most of the week at around 51.
Auburn plays its second road game in as many weeks when it goes to Arkansas in Week 6. Speaking of the Razorbacks, they snapped out of a two-game slide by spanking Texas A&M 47-19 as short favorites at Cowboys Stadium.
Alabama got off to another slow start but before the day was over at Commonwealth Stadium, the Crimson Tide had a 38-20 win that hooked up its backers as a 16-point road favorite against Kentucky. Junior QB Greg McElroy threw a pair of touchdown passes to improve his TD-INT ratio to 9/1 for the season.
The third SEC West team to stay undefeated was LSU. I’ve often said that the Tigers won the national championship in 2007 in spite of – rather than because of – head coach Les Miles. On Saturday afternoon between the hedges in Athens, that formula was at work yet again.
Despite a number of baffling decisions by Miles, LSU captured a thrilling 20-13 win at Georgia as a 3 ½-point underdog. Bettors backing the Tigers to win outright took home a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150).
Mark Richt’s team really had no business even being in the game in the fourth quarter, but the Dawgs took the lead with 1:09 left after Joe Cox found A.J. Green for a 16-yard touchdown pass. When the two-point conversion failed, UGA had a 13-12 advantage.
After making the remarkable TD catch, Green was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. The questionable call for celebrating resulted in Georgia kicking off from 15 yards back. Then Trindon Holliday went beyond midfield on the kick return and the Dawgs were assessed another five-yard penalty for lining up wrong on the kick-off.
Two plays later, Charles Scott went off tackle left, broke a tackle and scampered 33 yards to paydirt for his second rushing touchdown of the day. He was also flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct, but UGA couldn’t get anything going offensively.
In this past week’s SEC News and Notes, this space called Miles to the carpet for not getting the ball to Scott enough. A week after he had only six carries at Mississippi St., Scott gained 95 yards on 19 carries.
Just when it appeared Michigan freshman quarterback Tate Forcier was poised to write another chapter in his rapidly growing legacy by guiding his team to another comeback victory, Michigan St. decided that it wasn’t going to happen – not in East Lansing, not in a game the Spartans absolutely had to have.
After blowing a 20-6 fourth-quarter lead, the Spartans won by a 26-20 count in overtime thanks to a 23-yard touchdown run by Larry Caper. Forcier threw a pair of TDs in the final stanza to force the extra session, but he was intercepted in the end zone on the first possession of OT. Two plays later, Caper’s game-winning TD gave Michigan St. a second straight win over the Wolverines for the first time since the 1960s.
Most importantly, gamblers on the Spartans cashed tickets as 3 ½-point favorites in a scenario in which most teams usually end up settling for a field goal. Obviously, that development would’ve allowed the Wolverines to cover the number.
Iowa remained undefeated with its ninth consecutive win dating back to last year. The Hawkeyes held off Arkansas St. by a 24-21 count, but they failed to cover the number for the first time this season as 21 ½-point home favorites. Kirk Ferentz’s team is now just 2-7 ATS in its last nine spots as a double-digit favorite. The Hawks host Michigan next week in a huge Big Ten showdown.
Syracuse is another team that is no longer unbeaten for our purposes. USF improved to 4-0 SU with a 34-20 win at the Carrier Dome as a seven-point road ‘chalk.’ Staying in the Big East, Cincinnati still hasn’t lost, taking out Miami (OH.) 37-13 although the Bearcats failed to cover the huge spread (29 at most spots).
What on earth is wrong with North Carolina? The Tar Heels got destroyed at Ga. Tech last week and seemed poised to bounce back against a winless Virginia team with a head coach on the hot seat. But that’s not the way it went down in Chapel Hill.
Al Groh’s team dominated from the opening whistle, cruising to a 16-3 win as a 13-point underdog. The Cavaliers hooked up money-line backers with a tasty plus-375 payout (risk $100 to win $375).
Speaking of generous money-line winners, gamblers backing Maryland cashed in nicely. The Terrapins dropped Clemson 24-21 as 12 ½-point home underdogs. Gamblers taking Ralph Friedgen’s team to win outright brought home a plus-350 return. Once again, I’d like to repeat what a disastrous move Clemson made when it hired Dabo Swinney.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
When Oklahoma trimmed Miami’s lead to 21-20 with 4:18 remaining, I felt like Bob Stoops should’ve called for a surprise onside kick. For starters, you can possibly get a recovery. Secondly, it’s ok to leave the ‘Canes with a short field because if you don’t get a three and out, the clock becomes the enemy, especially when trailing by just one point. In that scenario, even a touchdown by UM leaves it a one-possession game (28-20) and Oklahoma would still have a chance to draw even. The last thing you want is to not get the football back. As it turned out, that’s exactly what happened when Miami produced three first downs.
Northwestern rallied in the fourth quarter to collect a 27-21 win at Purdue as a 7 ½-point underdog. Bettors backing the Wildcats on the money line earned a plus-220 payout (risk $100 to win $220).
Big win for Oregon St. this week as it captured a 28-17 win at Arizona St. as a five-point road underdog. Ditto the big-win thing for Stanford, which knocked off UCLA 24-16 as a five-point home favorite in Palo Alto.
We can put to bed Houston’s chances at becoming the first Conference USA team to get to a BCS game. After beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, the Cougars lost 58-41 at UTEP. The Miners were 14-point home underdogs, cashing money-line tickets in the plus-450 range.
Check out the upstart Idaho Vandals, who have won three in a row after rallying past Colorado St. for a 31-29 home triumph as 4 1/2-point home underdogs. Idaho hasn't been favored all year, yet it goes to San Jose St. this week with a 4-1 SU record and a perfect 5-0 ATS mark.
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