NCAAFB Betting News and Trends For Saturday 8/25/18

Hawaii at Colorado State
August 24, 2018
By Brian Edwards

UPDATE: Shortly after filing this preview on Wednesday, news broke that Mike Bobo had been released from the hospital Tuesday night. In fact, he made it to the office by 6:30 a.m. on Wednesday and has been at practice since then. Due to his lack of mobility, however, he'll coach Saturday night from the press box. As of Friday afternoon, the Rams were favored by 14.5 points with the total at 56.5.

Although it might be without its fourth-year head coach Mike Bobo for Saturday’s season opener on Sonny Lubick Field at Colorado St. Stadium, Colorado State will nonetheless be in a double-digit ‘chalk’ role when it welcomes Mountain West Conference rival Hawaii into Ft. Collins.

As of Monday afternoon, most betting shops had Colorado State installed as a 14-point home favorite with a total of 57.5 or 58. The Warriors were +425 on the money line (risk $100 to win $425). As of Wednesday, the side hadn’t budged off the key number.

By Tuesday afternoon, however, the number for ‘over/under’ wagers started to slide down. The total was 56 at most Vegas books by late Tuesday night, but a lot of offshores were at 55.5 and few had settled at 55. Then on Wednesday morning, the total had jumped back up to 57 or 57.5 at most spots. For first-half wagers, William Hill had the Rams as eight-point favorites with a total of 29.5. Hawai’i was +300 to lead outright at intermission.

Bobo, the 44-year-old former quarterback and offensive coordinator at Georgia, has been hospitalized since Aug. 11 when he was admitted after experiencing numbness in his feet for weeks. He is undergoing tests and treatment for peripheral neuropathy, a condition described by the Mayo Clinic as the result of damage to your peripheral nerves, which send information to your brain and central nervous system, causing weakness, numbness and pain in the hands and feet.

Bobo has been in contact with his staff and players daily, sending text messages after evaluating practice film. As of early this week, it was unclear if Bobo would be on the sidelines Saturday night. If not, the expectation is for quarterbacks coach Ronnie Letson to call the plays.

Senior K.J. Carta-Samuels has been named CSU’s starting QB. Carta-Samuels is a grad transfer from Washington, where he played in a back-up role behind Jake Browning for three seasons. He completed 57 percent of his passes for 310 yards with a 3/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Huskies.

Colorado State returns only four starters on offense and five on defense from a squad that finished 7-6 straight up for the third consecutive campaign. The Rams, who went 4-9 against the spread last year, lost 30 lettermen.

CSU will no longer have the services of QB Nick Stevens, who is second in school history in career passing yards (8,550) after throwing for 3,799 yards with a 29/10 TD-INT ratio in 2017. Star RB Dalyn Dawkins is also gone after finishing his career third in school history with 3,185 rushing yards.

Bobo’s team will be fine in the backfield despite the loss of Dawkins, however. Senior RB Izzy Matthews has amassed 1,937 career rushing yards and 26 TDs in his first three years on campus. Matthews also has 24 receptions for 239 yards and one TD. As a freshman last season, RB Rashaad Boddie ran 44 times for 254 yards and four TDs with a 5.8 yards-per-carry average.

However, Boddie and reserve RB Marvin Kinsey are listed as ‘questionable’ due to possible suspensions for undisclosed reasons. Kinsey (4.8 YPC) rushed for 124 yards and two TDs on 26 attempts as a sophomore last year.

Colorado State lost its best WR and four of its top-five pass catchers. Michael Gallup hauled in 100 receptions for 1,413 yards and seven TDs as a senior last year. He had produced 1,272 receiving yards in 2016. Olabisi Johnson will become the No. 1 target for Carta-Samuels. Johnson has started 18 career games, finishing ’17 with 41 catches for 595 yards and two TDs. He is a preseason second-team All-MWC pick in Phil Steele’s magazine.

Preston Williams was a 5-star recruit for Butch Jones at Tennessee in the 2015 class. He played in eight games as a true freshman, producing seven receptions for 158 yards and two TDs. Williams had nine catches for 80 yards while starting two of six games in 2016. As his playing time diminished, however, he elected to transfer and chose CSU in November of ’16. Williams sat out last season.

Warren Jackson is expected to be the third starting WR, while fellow sophomore Cameron Butler will get the nod at tight end. Jackson had 15 receptions for 265 yards and two TDs in ’17, while Butler brought down 12 grabs for 171 yards and three TDs. Nikko Hall, a true freshman WR, was the prize of Bobo’s 2018 recruiting class.

Steele’s preseason magazine ranked each MWC team’s units. The Rams are ranked seventh at the QB position, sixth at RB, fourth at WR and sixth on the offensive line. This year’s o-line had just 22 career starts until the addition of Louisville grad transfer Toriano Roundtree, a 6’7” 330-pound offensive tackle. The Rams lost a pair of first-team All-MWC performers in OT Zak Golditch and center Jake Bennett.

Steele’s MWC Unit Rankings has CSU at No. 7 on the defensive line, ninth at LB and seventh in the secondary. The Rams bring back their top two tacklers in senior safety Jordan Fogal and senior middle LB Josh Watson, who had 109 tackles, seven passes broken up, three tackles for loss, two sacks, two interceptions and one QB hurry in ’17. Fogal recorded 71 tackles, four PBU, two interceptions, two QB hurries and one TFL last year.

Junior DB Braylin Scott redshirted last year due to an injury. Although he’s ‘questionable’ vs. UH due to a potential suspension, his return should help the CSU secondary. As a sophomore in ’16, Scott started seven games and produced 39 tackles and three interceptions.

During Bobo’s tenure, Colorado State has compiled a 6-6 spread record in 12 games as a home favorite. But the Rams went 1-4 ATS in five such spots last season. In addition, they failed to cover in all four games as double-digit ‘chalk’ with one outright defeat in a 45-28 loss to Air Force as 10-point home favorites.

Hawai’i won just 11 games during the Norm Chow Era from 2012-15. Therefore, when first-year head coach Nick Rolovich finished 7-7 in ’16 and the Warriors beat Middle Tennessee by a 52-35 count in the Hawai’i Bowl, it was viewed as a remarkable accomplishment.

Those positive vibes carried over to a 2-0 start last year with a 38-35 season-opening win at UMass and a 41-18 home win over Western Carolina. From there, however, things went South in a major way with nine losses in the next 10 games.

Rolovich’s second season ended with a 3-9 SU record and a 3-8-1 ATS mark. Hawai’i returns just three starters on offense and five on defense. The biggest losses are QB Dru Brown and RB Diocemy Saint Juste, who finished second in school history in career rushing yards (3,102). Brown had a 37/15 TD-INT ratio the last two years, but he elected to leave for Oklahoma State as a grad transfer.

With Saint Juste the last two seasons, Rolovich got away from the run-and-shoot offense he ran as the QB at Hawai’i in 2000 and ‘01 to get more touches for his workhorse RB. But in ’18, the offense will get back to its run-and-shoot ways that were its identity during the glory days of the June Jones Era during the 2000s.

The offense averaged merely 22.8 points per game last season. This unit was hurt by the mid-season loss of star WR John Ursua, who had 47 catches for 667 yards and five TDs before tearing his ACL six games into the year. Ursua returns for his senior campaign, but WR Dylan Collie (56 receptions for 636 yards and four TDs in ’17) transferred to BYU.

As of Wednesday, Rolovich was still playing coy on who will be his starting signal caller Saturday night. Cole McDonald, a third-year sophomore, has been considered the front runner for the job. He completed merely 5-of-9 throws for 22 yards and one TD without an interception last season. McDonald rushed for 138 yards and one TD on 16 attempts, which makes him the team’s leading returning rusher. True freshmen QBs Jeremy Moussa (was in for spring practice) and Chevan Cordeiro have been pushing McDonald for the gig.

According to a Wednesday report from Rob DeMello, the Sports Director at KHONews in Honolulu, Cordeiro has moved ahead of Moussa in the pecking order. Rolovich told DeMello, “We got Chevan (Cordeiro) and Cole (McDonald) slashed right now on the depth chart. We’ll see from there. Moussa’s got probably the most talented arm. Cole and Chevan are better athletes. But I think there will be multiple QBs playing this year.”

Cordeiro led local Saint Louis HS to a state title as a prep senior last season, garnering the Cover2 Marcus Mariota Award as the state’s Player of the Year.

Steele’s MWC Unit Rankings don’t provide much optimism for the Hawai’i offense. The QBs are ranked 10th in the 12-team league, while the RBs are 12th, the WRs are eighth and the offensive line is 11th. The o-line will be without senior OT Asotui ‘Tui’ Eli, who has 34 career starts to his credit. Eli is out for the 2018 season with an injury.

The Hawai’i defense gave up 33.9 PPG in ’17. This unit returns its two best players in LBs Soloman Matautia and Jahlani Tavia, who was a first-team All-MWC selection in ’16 and a second-teamer last year. Tavia recorded 124 tackles, 5.5 TFL’s, 5.5 sacks, five QB hurries, one interception and one PBU. Matautia had 85 tackles, 3.5 TFL’s, three interceptions, one sack and one QB hurry last season.

Steele’s MWC Unit Rankings have the Warriors at 12th on the defensive line, fifth at the LB position and 12th in the secondary.

During Rolovich’s tenure to date, Hawai’i has posted a 5-5 spread record in 10 games as a road underdog. When listed as double-digit road ‘dogs, the Warriors have gone 2-4 ATS with one outright win at Air Force by a 34-27 score in double overtime two years ago.

CSU has won seven games in a row in this rivalry, including a 51-21 win as a 6.5-point road favorite last season. The Warriors, who are 2-9 in 11 visits to Ft. Collins, haven’t won at CSU since 1988 and haven’t beaten the Rams at any venue since 1995. They hold a 15-9 edge over Hawai’i in the rivalry that started back in 1925.

With Hurricane Lane bearing down on the Hawai’ian islands and expected to wreak havoc from Thursday through Saturday, the football team was scheduled to make a direct flight to Denver on Wednesday evening.

As for the weather in Ft. Collins on Saturday, the conditions should be perfect. During the first half before the sun sets, temperatures will probably be in the 70s. Weather.com’s forecast calls for a low of 58 on Saturday night, with mostly clear skies and winds blowing at 5-10 miles per hour.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports Network.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- CSU’s Matthews is a fourth-team All-MWC RB in Steele’s preseason mag. The only other offensive player honored for the Rams is center Colby Meeks, a senior center. CSU’s defense has three players on Steele’s All-MWC teams, including Watson (second-teamer), junior DT Richard King (third-teamer) and Fogal (fourth-teamer).

-- Steele ranks CSU fourth in the MWC on special teams and fourth in chemistry. The Rams are 30th on special teams in Steele’s National Unit Rankings. Punter Ryan Stonehouse is a preseason first-team pick after averaging 45.9 yards per punt last season as a freshman. Stonehouse had 24 punts that left foes inside the 20 and his punts prompted 12 fair catches. Johnson is a fourth-team selection as a punt returner and place kicker Wyatt Bryan is also a fourth-teamer. Steele’s mag ranks Bryan as the 20th-best kicker available for the 2019 NFL Draft.

-- Sportsbook.ag has the Warriors’ win total at 3.5 shaded to the ‘over’ at a -125 price. Remember, season win totals are for regular-season games only, and Hawai’i get 13 of those instead of the 12 that most FBS teams play.

-- I see two likely home wins for Hawai’i vs. Rice and vs. Duquesne. I’m confident that five of the Warriors’ six road assignments are going to end in defeat. The one road game that’s winnable comes in a horrible situational spot on Sept. 29 at San Jose State. For starters, the Spartans will get two weeks to prepare, while Hawai’i will be playing its sixth game in six weeks. Worst of all, the Warriors travel to the East coast to play Army at West Point on Sept. 15. After returning home to take on Duquesne, they fly back to the main land again to take on SJS. The best chance for MWC home win comes on Nov. 17 vs. UNLV when the Warriors have two weeks to prepare and will have been back on the island since returning from an Oct. 27 game at Fresno State. The Rebels will be playing their seventh game in as many weeks. In addition, they’ll be in a back-to-back road situation after going to San Diego State. the previous weekend and they’ll be on the road for the third time in a four-week stretch.

-- CSU’s season win total is 5.5 (‘over’ -120, ‘under’ -110) at Sportsbook. The Rams play Colorado in Denver next Friday night before facing back-to-back SEC opponents. They host Arkansas on Sept. 8 and travel to Gainesville to take on Florida on Sept. 15. Bobo’s team gets two open dates ahead of road assignments at San Jose State. and at Nevada. However, the Wolf Pack also have two weeks to prep for the Rams.

-- TCU will be without sophomore nose tackle Ross Blacklock after he suffered a season-ending knee injury at practice earlier this month. Blacklock started all 14 games as a true freshman and garnered Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year honors.

-- Georgia lost two of its top RBs in school history in Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. However, with D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield coming back along with the addition of the nation’s No. 1 prep RB, Zamir White, the Bulldogs figured to be fine in the backfield. Now depth is an issue and injury to Swift could be catastrophic because White tore his ACL on a non-contact play covering a punt at practice last Saturday. White, who tore the ACL in his other knee back in November, will miss all of 2018.

Wyoming at New Mexico St.
August 24, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Coming off its first trip to the postseason since 1960, New Mexico State is making the transition from the Sun Belt Conference to joining Notre Dame and four other school as Independents at the FBS level. Armed with a new contract, Doug Martin enters his sixth season at the helm with high hopes of recording a second straight winning season.

NMS (let’s go with that from here on…) went 7-6 both straight up and against the spread last year, posting just its fifth winning season in the last 50 years. The Aggies won five of their past seven games, including a 26-20 overtime victory over Utah State as four-point underdogs in the Arizona Bowl.

Martin’s team returns six starters on offense, nine on defense and lost only 13 lettermen. There were some key losses, however. QB Tyler Rogers, the school’s second all-time leader in career passing yards (10,364), has departed along with RB Larry Rose III, the program’s second all-time leading rusher with 4,567 career yards.

Wide receiver Jaleel Scott became the first Aggie to be selected in the NFL Draft since 2013 when he was plucked by the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth round. Scott was a first-team All-Sun-Belt performer last season when he hauled in 76 receptions for 1,079 yards and nine touchdowns.

Without this trio, there are clearly big holes to fill on offense. With that said, there are five players back who had 20 catches or more in 2017. One of those wideouts is junior O.J. Clark, who had 47 catches for 500 yards and three TDs. Anthony Muse brought down 40 grabs for 455 yards and two TDs, while senior Johnathan Boone had 31 receptions for 399 yards and one TD.

Rogers completed 61.9 percent of his passes for 4,016 yards with a 27/18 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2017. Martin announced Rogers’ replacement on Tuesday when he chose juco transfer QB Matt Romero to get the starting nod in Saturday night’s opener vs. Wyoming at Aggie Memorial Stadium.

As of Friday afternoon, the Cowboys were listed as 3.5-point road favorites with a total of 44.5 or 45. The Aggies were +150 to win outright (risk $100 to win $150).

Romero was in for spring drills at NMS after starting for two seasons at Palomar Junior College in San Marcos, California. He threw for 5,489 yards and 49 TDs. According to a report from the Las Cruces Sun News, NMS was Romero’s only FBS scholarship offer. He beat out senior Nick Jeanty for the job. Jeanty, who has appeared in 17 games and started five for the Aggies, connected on 48-of-72 throws in ’17 for 389 yards with a ¼ TD-INT ratio.

Junior RB Jason Huntley will take over the bulk of the load for Rose. Huntley has started five games in the past two years when Rose was injured. He ran for 420 yards and one TD last year, averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Huntley is excellent at catching the ball out of the backfield, producing 39 catches for 363 yards and two TDs in ’17.

NMS’s defense gave up 29.7 points per game last year. Fourteen of the top 16 tacklers from this unit are back. However, two of the Aggies best defenders could be sidelined vs. Wyoming. Junior DE Cedric Wilcots, a first-team All-SBC selection in ’17, is suspended for at least one game due to academic reasons. Wilcots produced 29 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, six QB hurries and three passes broken up last season.

Senior safety Ron LaForce is listed as ‘questionable’ with a foot injury. LaForce was the SBC’s Newcomer of the Year after enjoying a banner season with NMS after arriving via the juco route. He recorded 104 tackles, five PBU, three interceptions and one TFL.

Senior LB Terrill Hanks is ‘probable’ despite dealing with a wrist issue. Hanks had 111 tackles, eight TFL’s, seven sacks, six PBU, four QB hurries and two interceptions in ’17. The Aggies have another elite pass rusher in junior DE Malik Demby, who had 47 tackles, 6.5 sacks, six QB hurries, 4.5 TFL’s and one PBU last year.

NMS is 4-2 ATS in its six games as a home underdog in the past two seasons. During Martin’s tenure, the Aggies are 9-10-2 versus the number in 21 games as home ‘dogs.

Wyoming went 8-5 both SU and ATS last year, beating Central Michigan by a 37-14 count as a three-point ‘chalk’ on the blue carpet in Boise at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Cowboys won five games by double-digit margins, and two of their defeats came against Power Five foes at Iowa and vs. Oregon. They lost two other games to 11-win Boise State and 10-win Fresno State.

Craig Bohl’s squad dropped a pair of one-possession games, and it took the cash in a 24-14 loss at BSU as a 14-point underdog. The Cowboys were -640 in overall totals yards vs. their opponents, but they made up for that deficit with an incredible +24 turnover margin.

Wyoming brings back nine starters on offense, eight on defense and loses only nine lettermen. One of those losses was a big one, though. That would be No. 7 overall pick Josh Allen, the QB who went to the Buffalo Bills in the first round and was the highest pick in school history.

We should also point out that Allen didn’t play in Wyoming’s last two regular-season games in ’17, resulting in L’s vs. Fresno State (13-7) and at San Jose State (20-17). Allen threw for 1,812 yards with a 16/6 TD-INT ratio.

Nick Smith completed 40-of-74 passes (54.1%) for 471 yards with a 2/2 TD-INT ratio last season. Despite gaining valuable experience with two starts, Smith was beaten out for the starting QB job by redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal, who will throw to a group of wideouts that returns its top seven pass catchers.

Even with Allen, the Wyoming offense averaged merely 23.5 PPG in ’17. Junior WR Austin Conway will be Vander Waal’s favorite target. Conway had 62 receptions for 553 yards and three TDs, while C.J. Johnson had 30 catches for 531 yards and seven TDs. However, Johnson tore his ACL in the Dec. 22 win over CMU and remains ‘out’ indefinitely.

The offensive line will be without two players at NMS. OT Alonzo Velazquez is ‘out’ with a knee injury after starting 10 games as a true freshman. Junior OG Gavin Rush, who started 22 games the past two years, is out for the season with a biceps injury.

Wyoming’s defense was nasty in ‘17, surrendering only 17.5 PPG after giving up 34.1 PPG the previous campaign. Give credit to defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton, who was hired away from the Jacksonville Jaguars by Bohl. Hazelton had been with the Jags for three years as their assistant LB coach.

The top six tacklers return, including star senior DE Carl Granderson, who was a first-team All-Mountain West selection. Granderson, who is listed as the No. 8 DE available for the 2019 NFL Draft in Phil Steele’s preseason magazine, produced 77 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 6.5 TFL’s, four QB hurries, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and one 58-yard fumble return for a TD.

Junior LB Logan Wilson was a second-team All-MWC pick last season when he recorded 119 tackles, seven TFL’s, two forced fumbles, one sack, one interception, one PBU and one 18-yard fumble return for a TD. Senior safety Andrew Wingard is a three-time All-MWC selection, garnering first-team honors in back-to-back campaigns after being a second-team choice as a freshman in ’15.

Wingard has 367 career tackles, including 114 stops last year. He also had seven TFL’s, five interceptions, three PBU, two forced fumbles and one sack. Wingard is a third-team preseason All-American in Steele’s mag and the No. 8 strong safety available for the 2019 NFL Draft.

Two defensive players are ‘out’ at NMS, however, and another is listed as ‘questionable.’ Starting junior LB Cassh Maluia will be serving a one-game suspension following a solid sophomore season. Maluia produced 74 tackles, three PBU, 2.5 TFL’s, one interception, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and one sack.

Reserve DL Javaree Jackson is ‘out’ for the entire season with a back injury. Jackson had 24 tackles and 1.5 TFL’s last year. Reserve DE Josiah Hall is a question mark due to a blood clot. Hall registered 24 tackles, two TFL’s, one QB hurry and 0.5 sacks.

Wyoming is an abysmal 1-4 both SU and ATS in five games as a road favorite during the first four years of Bohl’s tenure.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. It is the first time in more than a decade that NMS has played on ESPN or ESPN2.

Coming from Laramie and its mild summer weather up in the mountains, the Cowboys must deal with the New Mexico heat in this spot. According to weather.com, the forecast in Las Cruces calls for temperatures to dip into the 70s as the night progresses. With the 8:00 p.m. kick local time, heat will be factor in the first half and temperature will be in the 80s for at least the first quarter.

There’s a 40-percent chance of rain with mostly cloudy skies. Winds are expected to be at 5-10 miles per hour.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- NMS has won three consecutive games against MWC competition, topping in-state rival New Mexico in back-to-back years. As previously noted, the Aggies also knocked off Utah State last season.

-- The ‘under’ cashed in each of Wyoming’s last six regular-season games of ’17 before the ‘over’ hit in its postseason triumph over CMU.

-- The ‘under’ was a winner in NMS’s last three games of ’17.

-- After hosting the Cowboys late Saturday night, NMS faces a terrible spot on a short week when it must turn around and play at Minnesota on Thursday.

-- Sportsbook.ag has Wyoming’s season win total at 6.5 shaded to the ‘over’ at a -165 price (+135 for the ‘under’). The offshore shop has the Aggies’ win total at six (‘under’ -145).

-- Blake Barnett, the former 5-star recruit who started his career at Alabama before transferring to Arizona State, has been named the starting QB by Charlie Strong at USF.

-- Besides a pair of Thursday guest radio appearances on Sharp & Benning in the Morning on 1620 The Zone in Omaha and The Out of Bounds Show with Qualk & Kelly on The Roar in Clemson, I’ve yet to (at least on the keyboard) weigh in on that utterly despicable debacle of a press conference in Columbus on Wednesday night. Don’t worry, folks, I’ve got opinions galore and they’re forthcoming in a column at some point in the next day or two. As just a quick little teaser, I’ll point out that I think this story is far from over. Also, I don’t believe Urban Meyer will be at Ohio State much longer for a slew of reasons. Get your popcorn ready!