NCAAFB Betting News and Trends For Thursday 10/4/18

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 4

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TULSA (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/4/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
TULSA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
TULSA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA ST (2 - 3) at TROY (4 - 1) - 10/4/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NCAAF

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 4

Georgia State @ Troy
Georgia State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia State's last 13 games on the road
Georgia State is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games on the road

Troy
Troy is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

Tulsa @ Houston
Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulsa's last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

Houston
Houston is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
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Teams from the Sun Belt's East Division – 13-5 ATS in 2018; 4-1 ATS the past week

Games featuring Sun Belt teams are probably most known by casual bettors as the ones they typically skip over because it's these teams that are the ones catching +30 or more points against the Georgia's and Alabama's of the world. Just this past weekend we had Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt West Division) getting +49 against the Crimson Tide, a play which ended up getting there thanks to Nick Saban taking his foot off the gas in the final frame. There are some quality football teams relative to most of their opponents in the Sun Belt though, specifically in the East division this year.

Four of the five teams in the Sun Belt East – which includes Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and Coastal Carolina – have winning records SU through five weeks, but more importantly they are 13-5 ATS combined on the season. That number includes a 4-1 ATS record this past week with the only loss coming in a division rivalry game between Troy and Coastal Carolina where one of them had to lose. But Georgia Southern and Georgia State each won SU as home 'dogs, while Appalachian State blew the doors off a bad South Alabama squad.

A 13-5 ATS record though is not something that should be overlooked five weeks into the season now – nearly the halfway point – as these are programs that probably catch a few extra points against the “big boys” simply because of perception. It's going to be tough to find those spots going forward as it's basically conference play from here on out, but for those of you interested in following some of these Sun Belt East teams, you won't have to wait very long. Georgia State visits Troy on Thursday night with Troy laying -17 as of now. Given that Georgia State is the lone team in the division with a losing record SU (2-3) and ATS (1-3), backing the home side may be the way to go.
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This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a West division battle between Tulsa and Houston.

The Golden Hurricane fared poorly on Thursday night two weeks ago in their first conference game while this is the AAC opener for Houston. Here is a look at Thursday’s game to start college football Week 6.

Match-up: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars
Venue: At TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 4, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Houston -18, Over/Under 68½
Last Meeting: 2017, at Tulsa (+14) 45, Houston 17

Houston won the inaugural AAC Championship game in 2015 and grabbed headlines nationally in 2016 with a pair of high profile upsets. That success let to Tom Herman being hired in Austin and last season former Texas quarterback Major Applewhite guided Houston to a 7-5 record in his first season as head coach.

Four of the five losses for Houston came in single score games but the one exception was a blowout loss at Tulsa, losing by 28 as a two-touchdown favorite. This season Houston is 3-1 with a notable win over Arizona while the loss came by 14 at Texas Tech. This will be the first game of the AAC season for the Cougars who figure to be the favorites in the West division with last season’s champion Memphis already 0-2 in league play.

Houston struggled to find a quarterback early last season but D’Eriq King emerged in late October, keying the upset over South Florida and finishing the season with solid results in the air and on the ground. Now a junior King has rushed less successfully and has a lower completion rate than last season but with 15 touchdowns and just one interception he has been a great leader with the offense scoring at least 45 points in every game.

Houston has rushed for over 1,000 yards in four games on 6.4 yards per carry with a committee approach as Patrick Carr leads the team with only 201 rushing yards and King leads the team with five rushing touchdowns.

Houston also has one of the highest profile defensive players in the nation with Ed Oliver a projected 1st round NFL pick next spring. Houston hasn’t had great defensive numbers this season allowing over 30 points per game after surrendering fewer than 24 points per game last season.

After a two-win 2017 season, Tulsa is expected to be an improved team with a shot at making the postseason. The 1-3 start has featured three losses in a row all against quality competition falling to Texas, Arkansas State, and opening the conference season with a 31-17 loss at Temple two weeks ago. Tulsa out-gained Temple by more than 100 yards in that game but had five turnovers including allowing two defensive touchdowns.

Luke Skipper split time at quarterback last season and has led the offense in all four games this year. He has marginal numbers with six interceptions and just 6.2 yards per attempt. Chad President is still on the roster but has only seen a few snaps this season after sharing the load last season for Philip Montgomery, in his fourth season as the head coach at Tulsa.

Montgomery led Tulsa to a bowl game in his first season and then produced a 10-win 2016 season before reversing course last year. Montgomery was an assistant at Houston from 2003 to 2007 before being the offensive coordinator at Baylor from 2008 to 2014 as a long-time assistant to Art Briles.

Houston is on the road the next two weeks making this home date an important one looking to take the division lead with only SMU and Tulane currently in the AAC West without a conference loss. Both of those teams are underdogs this week and will face off the following week as Houston is in a great position to move to the top of the standings.

Without producing an upset in the first month Tulsa could find itself needing a spectacular late season to reach six wins and earn a bowl bid. A 1-6 start looks realistic at this point hosting South Florida next week before a non-conference game at Arkansas. Road games at Memphis and at Navy will still be waiting in November as while Tulsa looked like a team that could take a positive step forward this season the path looks challenging. Upsetting Houston this week could change that trajectory.

Last season: Houston was 4-1 heading to Tulsa with the Hurricane 1-5 at the time and coming off a 62-28 loss at Tulane. It wasn’t a surprise when the Cougars took a 10-0 early lead but out of halftime Tulsa was a different team, feeding off of a big turnover to produce 17 points in the third quarter. Houston would get back within seven before Skipper hit a 70 yard pass play to seal the win for the Hurricane. Tulsa added two touchdowns in the final minute for a more convincing result than they deserved and it may be something the Houston players remember.

Historical Trends:

Houston is on a 42-31-1 run in home games since 2006 including a 6-2 ATS start under Applewhite including 3-0 as a double-digit home favorite.

Tulsa has covered in six of the past eight meetings between these schools going back to 2009 including covering in each of the last four meetings in Houston.

Tulsa is on a 22-11 ATS run as a double-digit underdog since 2010 with seven S/U upsets, going 12-4 ATS in that role since 2015 under Montgomery.
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Preview: Tulsa at Houston

Tulsa might debut a new quarterback when it visits high-scoring Houston on Thursday night in an American Athletic Conference game. The Golden Hurricane, who have lost three straight, opened the quarterback competition during their off week.

Starter Luke Skipper has 10 turnovers - six interceptions and four fumbles - while opponents have turned Tulsa's 13 turnovers in 55 points. "We've got to quit shooting ourselves in the foot," Tulsa coach Philip Montgomery told reporters. "I think when we do that, we have a chance to be a pretty good team. But until we correct those mistakes and take care of those types of issues, then we're setting ourselves up for failure." The Cougars enter Thursday leading the country in total offense (608.5 yards) and second in scoring (52.3) behind quarterback D'Eriq King, but have struggled on defense. Houston coach Major Applewhite wants his defense, which is ranked last nationally in passing yards allowed (389), to improve on tackling in space.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Houston -18

ABOUT TULSA (1-3, 0-1 American): Skipper has thrown for 716 yards and four touchdowns but might get replaced by redshirt freshman Seth Boomer. Sophomores Shamari Brooks (375 yards, four TDs) and Corey Taylor II (259 yards, three TDs) lead a ground attack that is averaging 208.8 yards. Brooks has six 100-yard games in 13 career contests and senior tight end Cole Neph (five catches, 50 yards) has two of the team's four touchdown receptions.

ABOUT HOUSTON (3-1, 0-0): King (1,197 yards, one interception) leads the country in points responsible for (30.5) behind a league-high 15 passing touchdowns and a team-high five rushing scores. Sophomore Marquez Stevenson leads the American with 97.8 receiving yards and five touchdowns and has five plays (two rushes and three receptions) of more than 50 yards. Patrick Carr averages 50.3 rushing yards for a ground game that has seen seven Cougars score.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Houston junior DT Ed Oliver, the AAC's reigning defensive player of the year, has 27 tackles, five tackles for loss and seven quarterback hurries.

2. Tulsa has allowed a defensive touchdown in three of its four games as opponents have scored on two interception returns and two fumble returns.

3. Houston (four games) trails only Alabama (five) for nation's longest streak of games with at least 45 points scored.

PREDICTION: Houston 41, Tulsa 27
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Preview: Georgia State at Troy
When: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 4, 2018
Where: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama

Overall Team Offense

The Troy Trojans are ranked 71 on offense, averaging 409.0 yards per game. The Trojans are averaging 196.2 yards rushing and 212.8 yards passing so far this season.
The Georgia State Panthers are ranked 102 on offense, averaging 361.6 yards per game. The Panthers are averaging 155.2 yards rushing and 206.4 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away

The Troy Trojans are 2-1 at home this season, 2-0 against conference opponents and 6106-6106 against non-conference opponents.
At home the Trojans are averaging 41.3 scoring, and holding teams to 28.0 points scored on defense.
The Georgia State Panthers are 0-2 while on the road this season, 1-0 against conference opponents and 6106-6106 against non-conference opponents.
On the road, the Panthers are averaging 14.5 scoring, and holding teams to 50.0 points scored on defense.
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Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 5 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-12
Against the Spread 26-32

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-21
Against the Spread 31-27

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-26

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Tulane (+14.5, ML +450) vs. Memphis, 40-24
Army (+7, ML +230) at Buffalo, 42-13
Florida (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 13-6
Liberty (+7, ML +225) at New Mexico, 52-43
Virginia Tech (+6.5, ML +210) at Duke, 31-14

The largest favorites to cover
Georgia Tech (-28) vs. Bowling Green, 63-17
Wake Forest (-28) vs. Rice, 56-24
Appalachian State (-25) vs. South Alabama, 52-7
Arizona State (-22) vs. Oregon State, 52-24
Oklahoma (-21.5) vs. Baylor, 66-33

Top 25 Notes

-- The Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Penn State lived up to the pregame hype, as it was a classic in Beaver Stadium. That is, unless you had the 'over', as the total (69.5) was never in question with a defense first three quarters. There were just 27 total points on the board heading into the fourth quarter before the offenses combined for a total of 26 points. There was the specter of overtime giving over bettors some hope, but that never came into fruition. It's too bad, too, as this one was fun to watch so overtime would have been a treat. The Buckeyes moved to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS, and the 'under' is now 3-1 over their past four outings.

-- Alabama flew out to a 49-0 lead on Louisiana, erasing the 49-point spread by halftime. Unfortunately for Tide side bettors, they took their foot off the gas and the Ragin' Cajuns scored two fourth quarter touchdowns and 14 unanswered points for the backdoor cover, with their final TD coming with 3:58 to go. After opening 3-0 ATS, the Tide are 0-2 ATS across the past two outings.

-- Clemson certainly got a scare, especially when their starting quarterback exited the game and the third-string signal caller entered against Syracuse. The Orange had a 23-13 lead at one point during the fourth quarter, but the Tigers stormed back for 14 unanswered points in the final quarter to avoid a major upset at the hands of 'Cuse for a second straight season.

-- Washington was not about to get bitten by the Brigham Young upset bug. The Huskies fired out to a 35-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter, using their lockdown secondary to stymie the upset-minded Cougars. The Huskies entered the day just 1-3 ATS, and it was their first cover in three tries at home. The 'under' is now a perfect 5-0 on the season for the Dawgs, too.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- North Carolina State kept their record unblemished with a 35-21 victory over Virginia. The Wolfpack improved to 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS over the past three games. If you were an 'under' bettors (53) you weren't terribly pleased about the finish of this one (see below). ... Virginia Tech rebounded in a big way with a 31-14 road win at Duke, serving up the Blue Devils their first loss in five games. After opening 3-0 ATS, Duke is now 0-2 ATS over the past two. ... Miami-Florida paddled North Carolina 47-10 to pick up their fourth straight victory while going 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their five outings this season.

-- Michigan State took care of Central Michigan 31-20, moving to 3-1 SU while slipping to 1-3 ATS overall. ... Northwestern nearly pulled off the upset, leading Michigan for most of the contest. However, the Wolverines ended up with the 20-17 win in Evanston, slipping to 2-3 ATS. They haven't covered in consecutive games yet this season and they're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two road contests. ... Nebraska cannot seem to get out of their own way, as Scott Frost slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS after a 42-28 loss to Purdue. After opening 0-3 SU, the Boilermakers have won two in a row and they have covered three straight.

-- Oklahoma slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover skid with a 66-33 win over Baylor. It was another 'over' for the Sooners, the fourth in five outings so far this season. ... Texas picked up an uneventful 19-14 victory at Kansas State, their first victory in Manhattan since 2002. They're still 0-2 ATS in two games away from Austin this season. Next up is the Red River Rivalry Game against the Sooners in Dallas. ... The side winner changed a handful of times since the midway point of the third quarter in Oklahoma State-Kansas. The Cowboys were laying 17, and they were covering or pushing for a good chunk of the contest. They went up 20 midway through the third quarter, only for Kansas to scored a TD early in the fourth. OK State returned the favor with 6:22 to go to cover agin, but Kansas struck quickly with 4:19 to pull back within 13. After a failed onside kick, the Cowboys ended up with a short field and they scored with 2:38 to go to earn the 48-28 win and cover.

-- After falling last week at USC, Washington State rebounded with a 28-24 win at home against Utah as short 'dogs on the Palouse. The Cougars struck with 4:14 to go in regulation, taking a 28-24 lead on an 89-yard touchdown, flipping the side in favor of the Cougs, and the total (50.5) also flipped on the big play. ... One of the other marquee matchups was Stanford-Notre Dame, but someone forgot to tell the Cardinal. After an emotional comeback last week at Oregon, head coach David Shaw's group was unable to bring it to that high of an emotional level for the second straight week in a tough road outing. The Irish blew their doors off 38-7, improving to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS. Notre Dame has covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

-- Kentucky moved to 5-0 SU with a 24-10 victory against South Carolina, picking up their second straight cover for the first time this season. Who had the Wildcats moving within one game of bowl eligibility and the calendar doesn't even read October yet? ... Texas A&M posted a 24-17 win over Arkansas, as they held on for the win but slipped to 4-1 ATS with their first non-cover. ... Florida picked up a 13-6 win at Mississippi State in the Dan Mullen Reunion Bowl in Starkville. After opening an impressive 3-0 SU/ATS, the Bulldogs are 0-2 SU/ATS while scoring just 6.5 PPG in two SEC battles and Auburn looming on the schedule next week.

Mid-Major Report

-- Tulane posted the 40-24 win over Memphis, the biggest underdog (+14.5, ML +450) to pick up an outright victory. ... Cincinnati rolled to a 49-7 win over Connecticut, easily earning the cover as 16-point road favorites. The Bearcats improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, while the Huskies slipped to 1-4 SU/ATS, and 0-4 SU/ATS in four outings against FBS schools. ... Temple was unable to score the outright upset at Boston College, but the Owls earned their third consecutive cover.

-- It was a topsy-turvy day in Conference USA, as the two championship game representatives from a year ago, Florida Atlantic and North Texas each suffered losses in their conference openers. Middle Tennessee picked up the 25-24 win, posting the go-ahead touchdown with :38 to go to flip the side and deal Owls side bettors a bad beat. FAU slipped to 0-5 ATS. ... UNT was dropped at home by Louisiana Tech, as a blocked field goal sealed their fate. The under has cashed in four in a row for the Mean Green.

-- The game of the day in the MAC was Northern Illinois-Eastern Michigan, as these teams couldn't solve their differences until the third overtime. NIU ended up with a 26-23 road win, and 'under' (50.5) had to sweat out a winning ticket for an extra hour. EMU has dropped back-to-back games in overtime, as they could very well be 4-1 SU. The Eagles are a solid 4-1 ATS so far. ... Miami-Ohio fell short against Western Michigan 40-39, but they held on for the cover at most shops. This line moved from Miami favored by 1.5 to WMU favored by 2.5 during the week, but the sharps got it wrong in this one.

-- New Mexico fell 52-43 to Liberty, in a high-scoring battle, as the 'over' is now 4-0 for UNM through four games. ... Fresno State posted an impressive 49-27 win over visiting Toledo, moving to 3-1 SU/ATS in four games this season. ... Hawaii was back on the mainland for the third time this season, and it ended a lot better than last time around. Well, sorta. They picked up a 44-41 win in overtime at San Jose State, scoring 41 or more points for the fifth time in five games. However, after opening 2-0 ATS they're just 0-3-1 ATS across their past four outings.

-- Troy earned a 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina to win and cover for the fourth straight outing. ... Appalachian State rolled to an impressive 52-7 win against South Alabama, picking up their fourth cover in as many outings. The 'over' is also a perfect 4-0 so far this season for the Mountaineers.

Bad Beats

-- The Owls of FAU had a 21-3 lead at one point, and it looked like they were going to handily cover a three-point line on the road. However, Middle Tennessee stormed back and outscored the Owls 22-3, including a touchdown and two-point conversion with :38 left in regulation to flip the cover from FAU to Middle Tennessee.

-- Western Kentucky was leading Marshall by a 17-13 score after a go-ahead TD at 6:50 left in regulation. The Thundering Herd posted the TD with 1:44 to go, taking a 20-17 lead to kill moneyline bettors of the Hilltoppers. For those laying three and the hook, the Herd didn't do nearly enough at the end.

-- For those holding 'under' (69) tickets, the lack of offense in the second half of ULL-Bama was nice. However, the Ragin' Cajuns scored a TD with 3:58 to go to not only send the total over, but also flip the side from a push at most shops to a non-cover for Bama.

-- In the UVA-NC State game, there was a total of 53. There were a couple of things that went wrong if you had an under ticket here. With :52 left in the first half, there were just 17 total points on the board. However, the Wolfpack scored 10 quick points in the final minute of the second quarter to take a 20-7 lead, suddenly putting the over on track. It was a defense battle again in the third and most of the fourth, but the Pack scored with 7:25 for a total of 49 points. Under bettors were still feeling pretty good, but then the Hoos moved the ball into the red zone and punched one in with 3:08 to go to push the total over.
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