Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 9/27/18
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanes Preview and Predictions
NCAAF Previews 25th September 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 09/25/2018
It's a short week for North Carolina and Miami as they meet in front of a national audience on Thursday night in South Florida. Both teams come off victories, with the Hurricanes moving up to No. 16 after their 31-17 triumph over Florida International, while the Tar Heels earned their first victory of the season, outlasting Pittsburgh 38-35 in the school's ACC and home opener.
The question of the week in Miami is who will open at quarterback after redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry replaced embattled senior Malik Rosier Saturday for the third series in a planned move, according to head coach Mark Richt. Rosier, last year's starter who got off to a rocky beginning this season, never got back in and Perry went on to hit 17 of 25 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns in his first extended action to spark a Hurricanes offense that has been inconsistent with Rosier at the helm. "I'm going to continue to watch practice and let everybody know when it's time for them to know," Richt told reporters. "But I'm not telling what's happening." The Tar Heels may have a quarterback quandary of their own with sophomore Chazz Surratt one of seven players returning from a three-game suspension, but head coach Larry Fedora indicated that junior Nathan Elliott will get the nod after his impressive 313-yard, two-touchdown outing against Pittsburgh.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Miami -18.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (1-2, 1-0 ACC): Surratt led the Tar Heels with 1,342 yards passing and 13 touchdowns (eight passing, five rushing) in nine games last season (seven starts) and his return will give Fedora a solid option should Elliott struggle as he did the first two weeks. The offensive line has surrendered just one sack in three games and the unit owned the line of scrimmage against Pittsburgh, playing a major role in the success of Elliott and a ground attack that pounded out a season-high 173 yards, led by Antonio Williams' 114 yards and two touchdowns. Last season, North Carolina outgained Miami 428-415 in a 24-19 loss but Surratt was injured in the first quarter and Elliott came in and threw three interceptions against the Canes' opportunistic defense.
ABOUT MIAMI (3-1, 0-0): Rosier has had his moments as the Hurricanes' starter since the start of the 2017 season but he is completing just 52.1 percent of his passes this year and 54 percent last year, while Perry is showing far greater accuracy (66.7 percent), a big reason why a switch to the younger, more dynamic Perry appears imminent. True freshman tight end Brevin Jordan is becoming a more integral part of the attack and he is tied for second on the team in receptions (12) and touchdowns (three), with 11 of his catches coming with Perry at quarterback. The Tar Heels' ground game will be challenged by a Miami run defense giving up just 78.8 yards per game, fourth best in the nation, with Gerald Willis III tied for tops in the country in tackles for loss (10) and Jonathan Garvin ranked sixth (8.5).
EXTRA POINTS
1. North Carolina won the last meeting in Miami in 2016, which was also the last time the Hurricanes lost a regular-season game at home (11 straight wins since).
2. The Hurricanes are opening their ACC slate at home for the first time since the 2013 season.
3. This will be North Carolina's 18th Thursday night ESPN football game in school history and they are 9-8, with wins in three of the last five appearances.
PREDICTION: Miami 34, North Carolina 20
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ATS Trends
North Carolina
Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Tar Heels are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Tar Heels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
Tar Heels are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
Miami
Hurricanes are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in September.
Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Hurricanes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
OU Trends
North Carolina
Under is 8-1 in Tar Heels last 9 Thursday games.
Under is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games on grass.
Under is 9-3 in Tar Heels last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Tar Heels last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Tar Heels last 11 games in September.
Under is 11-5 in Tar Heels last 16 conference games.
Miami
Under is 8-1 in Hurricanes last 9 conference games.
Under is 9-2 in Hurricanes last 11 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 10-3 in Hurricanes last 13 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Hurricanes last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-2 in Hurricanes last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 35-16 in Hurricanes last 51 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Head to Head
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Miami.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
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NCAAF
Long Sheet
Thursday, September 27
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N CAROLINA (1 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 1) - 9/27/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PERRY IN, ROSIER OUT?
There might be a starting quarterback change in the offing for the Miami Hurricanes, who host North Carolina on a short week Thursday night. N'Kosi Perry started for the first-team offense in Monday's practice while regular starter Malik Rosier began with the second team. Head coach Mark Richt wouldn't commit to a starter for Thursday's showdown with the Tar Heels, telling reporters: "I think the less your opponent knows, the better." The Hurricanes have won three in a row but didn't come close to covering last week, prevailing 31-17 over FIU as a 26.5-point favorite.
Miami opened at -19.5 but has been bet down to -18. Perry has completed two-third of his passes and has thrown for one more TD than Rosier despite making 34 fewer attempts; he represents the team's best option to reach its team total, which stands at 37.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
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