NCAAFB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Friday 10/19/18

October 18, 2018
By Brian Edwards

**Colorado State at Boise State**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most sports books had Boise State (4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) installed as a 23.5-point home favorite with a total of 62.5 or 63. William Hill was offering the Rams on the money line for a 12/1 return (risk $100 to win $1,200).

-- Boise State has only played at home twice this season, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. Bryan Harsin’s club smashed UConn by a 62-7 count as a 34-point home ‘chalk’ back in Week 2, but it dropped a 19-13 decision to San Diego State on Oct. 6 as a 13.5-point favorite.

-- BSU bounced back from the loss to the Aztecs last week to slip past Nevada, 31-27, as a 14.5-point road favorite. The 58 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 59.5-point total. Senior QB Brett Rypien threw for 299 yards and a pair of TDs, but he was intercepted three times. Trailing 10-7 early in the second quarter, the Broncos got a huge momentum-shifting play out of senior CB Tyler Horton, who intercepted Ty Gangi and returned the pick 99 yards for a TD. John Hightower had an 88-yard TD run for BSU and turned seven touches into 179 all-purpose yards.

-- Rypien, a second-team All-MWC selection last year and a first-team All-MWC choice in both his freshman and sophomore campaigns, has completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,858 yards with a 14/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target is Sean Modster, a senior WR who has 34 receptions for 480 yards and two TDs. A.J. Richardson has 27 catches for 430 yards, while Hightower has caught 21 balls for 306 yards and three TDs. Hightower has also rushed for 163 yards and two scores on merely eight attempts for a 20.4 yards-per-carry average. Junior RB Alexander Mattison has run for 416 yards and six TDs, but he’s only averaging 3.9 YPC.

-- BSU is ranked 19th in the nation in total offense, 10th in passing yards and 31st in scoring with its 36.2 points-per-game average. The Broncos are ranked 23rd in the country in total defense, 37th in pass defense, 30th at defending the run and 38th in scoring ‘D’ (21.8 PPG).

-- BSU’s other loss came at Oklahoma State (44-21) as a 1.5-point road favorite on Sept. 15. The Broncos’ two other wins came at Troy (56-20) and at Wyoming (34-14).

-- Since joining the Mountain West Conference, BSU has gone 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS when facing Colorado State. However, the Broncos needed to overcome an 18-point halftime deficit and rally from 14 points down with less than four minutes remaining to capture a 59-52 victory in Ft. Collins last year. Gamblers backing BSU got an incredibly fortunate cover as a 6.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Rypien threw for 331 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio, while Mattison rushed 23 times for 242 yards and three TDs.

-- Colorado State (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) is 1-1 both SU and ATS on the road. Since starting 1-4 both SU and ATS, Mike Bobo’s squad has won back-to-back contests both SU and ATS at San Jose State (42-30) and vs. New Mexico (20-18).

-- CSU edged the Lobos as a one-point home favorite thanks to Wyatt Bryan’s 26-yard walk-off field goal as time expired. The Rams played turnover-free football, had a 24-15 edge in first downs and 423-299 advantage in total offense. K.J. Carta-Samuels connected on 24-of-42 passes for 311 yards and one TD without an interception. Preston Williams, the former 5-star recruit to Tennessee who sat out last season after transferring, had nine receptions for 93 yards and one TD. Izzy Matthews rushed for 92 yards on 26 totes.

-- Colorado State owns a 6-2 spread record in eight games as a road underdog during Bobo’s four-year tenure. Meanwhile, Boise State is an abysmal 9-19 ATS in 28 games as a home favorite on Harsin’s watch.

-- Carta-Samuels has completed 61.0 percent of his throws for 1,934 yards with a 16/6 TD-INT ratio. Williams has played lights out, hauling in 52 receptions for 671 yards and seven TDs. Olabisi Johnson has caught 36 balls for 533 yards and four TDs. Matthews has 425 rushing yards for two TDs with a 3.9 YPC average. The senior RB also has 18 grabs for 116 yards and one TD.

-- CSU could be without four starters Friday night on the blue carpet. Johnson (ankle) is listed as ‘questionable’ along with senior center Colby Meeks and junior DT Richard King. Senior OG Tyler Bjorklund is ‘doubtful’ due to an ankle issue.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for the Rams, 1-1 in their two road assignments. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 59.7 PPG.

-- Totals have been an overall was for BSU both overall (3-3) and at home (1-1). The Broncos have seen their games average combined scores of 58.0 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Air Force at UNLV**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had Air Force (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) listed as a 10-point road favorite with a total of 57. The Rebels were +330 on the money line (risk $100 to win $330).

-- Air Force is winless in three road games, but it has produced a 2-1 spread record. The Falcons covered the spread as eight-point underdogs at FAU in a 33-27 loss, failed to cover in a 42-32 loss at Utah State as 9.5-point ‘dogs and took the cash in last week’s 21-17 setback at San Diego St. as 11-point puppies.

-- Troy Calhoun’s club ended a three-game losing streak two weeks ago by blasting Navy 35-7 as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Falcons shut down Navy’s vaunted ground attack by limiting it to 129 rushing yards on 41 attempts (3.1 YPC). They enjoyed a 17-9 advantage in first down and a 399-178 edge in total offense. Sophomore QB Donald Hammond rushed for 60 yards and three TDs on 19 carries, in addition to throwing for 142 yards and one TD without an interception.

-- Air Force came up short against the 5-1 Aztecs last week. The 38 combined points went below the 42.5-point tally to provide the Falcons with a third straight ‘under.’ Hammond left the game with an injury and is ‘questionable’ at UNLV. Junior RB Cole Fagan rushed for 90 yards on 16 carries.

-- Air Force has compiled a 12-16 spread record in 28 games as a road favorite during Calhoun’s 12-year tenure.

-- Air Force is 28th in the country in total defense, eighth at defending the run and 37th in scoring ‘D’ (21.8 PPG).

-- UNLV (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) will be without star QB Armani Rogers for at third consecutive game Friday night at Sam Boyd Stadium. Tony Sanchez’s team has lost 50-14 at home to New Mexico and 59-28 at Utah State since the sophomore QB went down with a toe injury that’s expected to keep him out for another 3-4 weeks. Rogers rushed for 780 yards and eight TDs as a true freshman in 2017. In UNLV’s first four games this year, he had run for 488 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC. He had completed just 41.5 percent of his throws for 369 yards, but he had a decent 6/4 TD-INT ratio.

-- Third-year sophomore QB Max Gilliam, who was an original 2016 Cal-Berkeley signed, has started the past two games. He has completed only 45.8 percent of his passes for 373 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio this season.

-- UNLV senior RB Lexington Thomas has been upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. Air Force after sustaining a concussion last week. Thomas is third in career rushing yards (3,040) at UNLV and can become the school’s all-time leader if he can run for 694 more rushing yards this year. He’s run for 556 yards and six TDs with a 5.7 YPC average in 2018.

-- UNLV owns an atrocious 1-5 spread record in six games as a home underdog during Sanchez’s four-year tenure.

-- Air Force is 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS in the past nine games of this rivalry. The Falcons had to shake off a 27-7 intermission deficit at home vs. UNLV last season to capture a 34-30 come-from-behind victory. The Rebels took the cash, however, as nine-point underdogs. The ‘over’ had hit in four straight games and eight of the past nine in this series, but the 64 combined points inched ‘under’ the 65.5-point tally. Rogers rushed for 148 yards and one TD, while Thomas rushed for 91 yards and one score on 17 attempts.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for the Falcons, 2-1 in their road outings. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 50.8 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Rebels, 2-1 in their home games. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 66.8 PPG.

-- CBS Sports College will have the broadcast at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

Colorado State Rams vs. Boise State Broncos Preview and Predictions

NCAAF Previews 16th October 2018 By Charles Jay for Scores And Stats
12 hours, 28 minutes for the game
by Charles Jay Scores & Stats on 10/16/2018

When they lost at home to Illinois State, which plays in the FCS, the Colorado State Rams were unquestionably not feeling very good about themselves. But they have since rebounded with a couple of victories, although it hasn't been without a struggle.

Things have not been all that easy lately for the Boise State Broncos either. The last time they were playing at home, it turned out to be a very sobering experience. So obviously they hope to make a much better showing of it for the home fans on Friday night.

There's also a national television audience to consider, as Boise State and Colorado State will square off at Albertsons Stadium in Boise.

TV: ESPN2, 9 PM ET. LINE: Boise State -23.5

ABOUT COLORADO STATE: In their "comeback" phase, the Rams first registered a 42-30 victory over San Jose State, in a bizarre game where they lost a 28-point lead by giving up 30 points in the third quarter Then they followed that up with a 20-18 win over New Mexico, although they barely escaped, as it came as a result of a 26-yard field goal from Wyatt Bryan as time expired. The defense did a good job against New Mexico's rampaging quarterback, Sheriron Jones, holding him to just 165 yards through the air, while KJ Carta-Samuels threw for 311 yards. What's very important is that Izzy Matthews had another nice game from the backfield, with 92 rushing yards, coming on the heels of him topping the century mark the week before. At this point, what CSU (3-4 SU and ATS) has to threaten the Boise State secondary is the connection between Carta-Samuels and his top two receivers. Sophomore Preston Williams, the Tennessee transfer who is one of the top receivers in the Mountain West Conference, if not the country, has 671 yards in catches, and defenses can't necessarily overload on him because Olabisi Johnson, the senior from Lakewood, CO, has 533 yards and the higher average than Williams (14.8 yards per reception).

ABOUT BOISE STATE: Well, it is clear that Brian Harsin's team is a step down from earlier editions, though still a prime Mountain West contender. When they played on the Blue Carpet two weeks ago, they had just 229 total yards against San Diego State in a 19-13 loss. Last weekend they faced the same 3-3-5 defensive alignment, this time from the Nevada Wolf Pack, and things were somewhat choppy here and there. However, in the end, Boise State (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) prevailed 31-27, although some "over" bettors were undoubtedly upset because of the scoreless fourth period. This time the Broncos benefited from big plays that made the difference - an 88-yard TD run from scrimmage from wide receiver John Hightower, which provided a big chunk of BSU's 207 rushing yards, and a 99-yard interception return by Tyler Horton. The reality is that if you took out that run by Hightower, the Broncos have averaged only 2.4 yards per rushing attempt over the last two games. Brett Rypien did have 299 yards through the air on 28-for-38 accuracy. But he also threw three INT's, which helped keep Nevada right in the thick of it.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Last year's meeting was a wild one, as the Rams put up 570 total yards and 33 first downs, only to yield 641 yards to the Broncos in a 59-52 overtime defeat. The last time they were in Boise, Colorado State launched a furious comeback, scoring 20 points in the last five minutes, in the process recovering two onside kicks, before falling short 28-23 to BSU, which was ranked 15th in the nation at the time.

2. Wyatt Bryan's winning kick against New Mexico was the 51st field goal of his career, and that tied the all-time Colorado State school record.

3. Playing in Mountain West Conference games on the Blue Carpet, Boise State has covered just two of its last 13 as a favorite.

PREDICTION: Boise State 38, Colorado State 21
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Air Force Falcons vs. UNLV Rebels Preview and Predictions in NCAAF

NCAAF Previews 11 hours, 28 minutes for the game
by Charles Jay Scores & Stats on 10/16/2018

It might just be that the Air Force Falcons are ready to make a move. While it is true that they have suffered four losses, those were to good teams, in contests where they were not out of it by any means. And while they employ the option-based offense that has been familiar for years, they are getting the job done these days with defense.

On Friday night they will go to Sin City to face off against a team that is clearly looking for some answers. The UNLV Rebels seemed like they could be on the way to only their second bowl bid since 2000, but when Armani Rogers went down with an injury, out went their formula for success. They are feeling their way around a new signal-caller, and the results have not been encouraging thus far.

The venue is Sam Boyd Stadium, and CBS Sports Network will be televising the game live.

TV: CBS Sports Network, 10 PM ET. LINE: Air Force -12.5

ABOUT AIR FORCE: The last game for the Falcons came on a rather bizarre evening in which lightning strikes in the San Diego area led to a long weather delay. In the end, Air Force (2-4 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) came out on the losing end of a 21-17 score - the eighth straight time they have lost to the Aztecs. For a while, it looked as if they might finally have some success against Rocky Long, as they led 17-14 in the fourth quarter. That lead was more a product of the defensive effort, however. Offensively, they managed just 14 first downs and 276 yards against Long's 3-3-5 defense. They were a little behind the eight-ball early, as they lost starting quarterback DJ Hammond to a leg injury, but they inserted Isaiah Sanders, who had previously been the starter, took over and actually completed seven passes, with 49 rushing yards. The Falcons (2-4 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) held SDSU, a team that travels mainly by land, to only 84 yards rushing, and they are now 8th in the nation in Rushing Defense, allowing just 101 yards per game. Air Force is also fourth in the country in Red Zone Defense, and only four teams in the nation have given up fewer first downs.

ABOUT UNLV: Their journey with quarterback Max Gilliam continues, though it does not continue smoothly. UNLV (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost its third straight game, and second with Gilliam as the starter, when it fell 59-28 to a Utah State squad that had just come off a big emotional victory over BYU. The Rebels struck first on a touchdown run by Lexington Thomas, but then it was all Utah State, which effectively ended it by going into the locker room at halftime with a 42-7 lead. Thomas had to be removed from the game after running for just 51 yards when he suffered a head injury in the third quarter. Reports are that he is likely to play this week. Max Gilliam, who has been filling in for injured dual-threat QB Armani Rogers, went 18-for-36 for 250 yards, and that included a 79-yard touchdown to Tyreek Collins. But he was sacked seven times, producing a rushing figure of minus-9 yards. Yes, the absence of the power-running Rogers, who was in the nation's top ten in rushing when he went down, is being felt. And it did not help matters that the offensive line was guilty of five false starts.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Air Force has shown the ability to play "keep-away" with the ball against its opponents, ranking fourth in the nation in average time of possession.

2. Before he left the game with his head injury, Lexington Thomas went over the 3000-yard rushing mark for his career.

3. Air Force has played five unders in six games and is on a 5-14 ATS run against Mountain West opponents.

PREDICTION: Air Force 37, UNLV 20
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