Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 11/30/18
Friday
MAC, Detroit
Northern Illinois went 3-3 in this game from 2010-15; Buffalo is in it for first time since 42-24 win over Ball State in ’08. Huskies beat Buffalo last three years, by 11-1-37 points; NIU beat Bulls 14-13 LY- teams played a scoreless 2nd half that day. Buffalo is 10-2 this year but got pounded in its two losses, 42-17 at Army, 52-17 at Ohio U; Bulls gave up 281-437 yards in those games. NIU lost its last two games after winning six in row before that. Under is 9-3 in NIU games this season; three of last four Buffalo games went over. Game is in a dome, so no worries about the weather.
Pac-12, Santa Clara, CA
Washington won its last three games with Utah, by 7-3-14 points; Huskies beat Utes 21-7 in SLC Sept 15- they held Utah to 261 yards, were +2 in turnovers. Washington won its last three games overall, running ball for 275-258 yards in last two games- they outgained Wazzu 487-237 in snowy Apple Cup LW. Utah is 8-0 when it scores 30+ points, 1-3 when they score less; does it help that they didn’t play a big rival LW? Washington beat Colorado 41-10 in this game two years ago; Utah is in this game for first time. Under is 9-3 in Washington games this year; over is 6-3 in last nine Utah games.
By Joe Nelson
Championship weekend kicks off in Detroit with the MAC Championship Game Friday night in Detroit. Northern Illinois has now represented the West in seven of the last nine title games while this is just the second appearance for Buffalo.
Here is a look at Friday’s closely-lined championship game in the MAC.
Match-up: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls;
Venue: At Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Time/TV: Friday, November 30, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2
Line: Buffalo -3, Over/Under 49
Last Meeting: 2017, at Northern Illinois (-8) 14, Buffalo 13
Buffalo has been the prominent MAC team all season since starting the year 4-0 with notable wins at Temple and at Rutgers. The Bulls started 6-0 in conference play to take a commanding lead in the East but slipped up at Ohio in mid-November before clinching the division title last weekend. At 10-2, it has been the best season record-wise in Buffalo history already and the Bulls will have two more opportunities to add to the win count.
This if the fourth season for Lance Leipold who won six Division III championships in eight years at Wisconsin-Whitewater and figures to be a candidate to be interviewed for major conference positions in the near future. Buffalo went 5-7 and 2-10 in his first two seasons before reaching 6-6 last year without getting a bowl invite.
Rod Carey took over Northern Illinois for the Orange Bowl at the end of the 2012 season after Dave Doeren was hired at NC State. In six-plus seasons he is 51-29 with the Huskies finishing in the top three in the West every season while this will be his fourth MAC title game, going 1-2 in three straight appearances from 2013 to 2015. A bowl win has eluded Carey, winless in five tries but the program has been a consistent force in the conference.
The Dollar General Bowl in Mobile vs. a Sun Belt team has been the typical landing spot for the MAC Champion though there are not true ranked bowl tie-ins for the MAC. The Camellia, Famous Idaho Potato, Frisco, and Bahamas Bowls are also tied to the MAC with the conference featuring seven bowl-eligible teams including six that are at least 7-5 this year.
West champion Northern Illinois is just 7-5 but the Huskies lost non-conference games to Iowa, Utah, and Florida State, while beating BYU for one of the nation’s most difficult non-conference schedules. The Huskies held this spot despite losing its final two MAC games to slide to 6-2 in league play, falling in single-score games hosting Miami and at Western Michigan in the final two weeks.
Northern Illinois has the top scoring defense in the MAC, allowing just 19.8 points per game while Buffalo was one of the conference’s top offensive teams, posting 35.5 points per game in conference play. These teams didn’t play in the regular season this year but Buffalo did face Eastern Michigan and Toledo in the crossover games for a fairly difficult schedule. Northern Illinois drew Ohio and Miami as both teams faced the second and third place teams from the opposing divisions.
Experienced mobile quarterbacks are on both sides with sophomore Marcus Childers playing significantly last season as a freshman for Northern Illinois. He posted worse numbers across the board this season however despite a similar record for the Huskies. Junior Tyree Jackson threw nearly twice as many touchdown passes this season compared with last season for Buffalo but he also saw major declines in most of his passing numbers compared with last season. At 6’7” Jackson is a difficult matchup for any defense but the Huskies have had great defensive numbers this season.
Only Clemson is allowing fewer yards per carry than Northern Illinois at just 2.6 yards per rush attempt on the season. The Huskies were only out-gained on the ground three times this season and never in MAC play with only Iowa, Florida State, and BYU holding a ground edge in this matchup while in six of eight MAC games Northern Illinois had a rushing edge of at least 96 yards.
Dominating the ground game has been the key to beating Buffalo this season as in the team’s two losses they had a major rushing deficit. In September Army out-gained Buffalo by 178 rushing yards and won 42-13 in Buffalo while in mid-November Ohio out-rushed Buffalo by 280 yards in a 52-17 result that prevented the Bulls from clinching the division at the time.
Despite the 6-2 record Northern Illinois played almost exclusively close games in MAC play with seven of eight games decided by 10 or fewer points in either direction. The only lopsided result was a home win over 2017 MAC Champion Toledo but that game featured nearly identical production but a few big turnovers and special teams plays tilting the scales to the Huskies. Northern Illinois actually has a negative scoring differential on the season despite being 7-5, though they outscored MAC foes by an average of 5.3 points per game.
Buffalo outscored foes by an average of 11.0 points per game overall this season and 10.9 points per game in MAC play. Buffalo scored at least 31 points in nine of ten wins this season while five of seven wins for Northern Illinois came with 26 or fewer points scored by the Huskies as these teams have generally been in contrasting types of contests and whoever dictates the pace could have the advantage.
2017 Meeting: In mid-October Northern Illinois visited Buffalo and took 14-3 lead with a pair of early second quarter touchdown drives led by Marcus Childers who ran for the first score and threw for the second. Buffalo would answer with 10 points before halftime including getting a field goal following a fumble for a one-point game at the break, 14-13. Northern Illinois had 1st-and-goal early in third quarter before a Childers fumble and on the next possession the Huskies missed on a 43-yard field goal. Buffalo got zero points after an 81-yard drive early in the fourth quarter with a missed field goal that could have taken the lead and a few minutes later an interception in Huskies territory also cost the Bulls a chance to get in front. Northern Illinois missed another field goal in the final minutes as the 14-13 edge held after a scoreless second half filled with missed opportunities.
Series History:
-- Northern Illinois is 10-0 S/U in this series since Buffalo joined the FBS ranks with the Huskies 7-3 ATS.
-- Northern Illinois has been favored by at least seven points in every previous meeting as this will be the first time Buffalo has been favored in this series and in eight of the previous 10 meetings Northern Illinois has been favored by 14 or more points.
MAC Championship History:
The MAC Championship has been won by the West representative in eight of the last 12 seasons and Northern Illinois has been six of the previous eight MAC championships, winning the title in 2011, 2012, and 2014, with the last title under current head coach Rod Carey.
By Joe Williams
Matchup: Utah vs. Washington
Date: Friday, Nov. 30
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, Calif.
Line, Total: Huskies -5, 44.5
The Pac-12 Championship Game kicks off on Friday night at Levi's Stadium, and we'll get some new blood in the battle. The Utah Utes (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) survived in the South Division, and they will be making the first-ever appearance in the league's title game. In fact, it might be the school's most important game since Kyle Whittingham took them to the Sugar Bowl against Alabama back in 2008.
The Washington Huskies (9-3 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) surprised the 10-win Washington State Cougars last weekend in the Apple Cup, pushing their rivals out of first place to claim the Pac-12 North for themselves. The season started with championship expectations of high proportions. However, a loss in a neutral-site battle against Auburn in the opener, and a couple of conference road setbacks against Oregon and California forced the Huskies to refocus.
The Utes lost in their conference opener back on Sept. 15 against the Huskies by a 21-7 score at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City as the 'under' (45.5) connected. The Utes followed that loss with a 28-24 setback in Pullman against Washington State, and an appearance in the conference championship game certainly didn't appear very possible with an 0-2 SU league start. However, Utah pulled together for an impressive 40-21 road victory at Stanford on Oct. 6, kicking off a four-game winning streak and cover streak to get right back into the thick of things. During the span the offense posted 40 or more points and things were humming again. The only loss since Oct. 6 was a 38-20 loss at Arizona State, but the team rebounded with three straight wins against Oregon and Colorado, as well as their rivalry game in the Holy War against Brigham Young in the season finale, 35-27. After a 1-3 ATS start, Utah ended up 6-2 ATS over their final eight outings.
The Huskies are making their second appearance in three seasons in Santa Clara, representing the North Division. They rolled past Colorado 41-10 in the 2016 installment to easily cover as 8 1/2-point favorites as the 'under' (55.5) cashed in that one. As mentioned, Washington won their conference opener Sept. 15 in SLC, and they fired out to a 3-0 SU/1-2 ATS start in the conference. They lost a heartbreaker in Oregon on Oct. 13, dropping a 30-27 decision in overtime, a game which could have been a win in the fourth quarter if not for a missed field goal. While that game might have knocked them out of contention for a national playoff spot, a stunning 12-10 loss at Cal on Oct. 27 looked like a potential death blow to their conference title hopes. The Huskies went 2-9 ATS in the first 11 outings, including an 0-6 ATS run from Oct. 6 through Nov. 17. However, they won in a snowy Apple Cup in Washington State to find their way back to the Bay Area and a potential Rose Bowl bid.
The Huskies ranked 52nd in the nation in total yards (421.2 YPG), while posting a very ordinary ranking of 64th in passing yards (236.2 YPG). They were a very ordinary 53rd in rushing yardage, too, posting 185.0 yards per contests with 28.0 PPG, ranking 77th in the country.
Senior QB Jake Browning took another step backward after his magical 2016-17 season. He completed 65.1 percent of his pass attempts (196-for-301) for just 2,692 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for 114 yards and four scores this season. Senior RB Myles Gaskin missed some time due to injury at the end of October, but he still managed to roll up 1,076 yards (5.1 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns, including 143 yards and a score in the win against Utah in mid-September. Sophomore RB Salvon Ahmed, the heir apparent to Gaskin in the backfield, posted 576 yards and seven touchdowns while actually outgaining Gaskin in yards per carry (6.3 to 5.1). Junior WR Aaron Fuller was good for a team-high 754 yards on 49 grabs with four touchdowns, while sophomore WR Ty Jones, a Utah native, led the team with six receiving scores.
This defense is championship caliber, and the secondary is littered with NFL prospects. Washington allowed 311.2 total yards per game which ranked 13th in the land, and their 16.5 points per game allowed was good for eighth in the country. Junior S Taylor Rapp is a game changer and heavy hitter in the secondary.
Utah averaged 414.0 total yards per game to rank 61st in the country, while the team scored 30.8 PPG to check in 54th in the nation. It was all about the run game, as they rolled up 201.0 yards per game to finish 40th in the land. Like Washington, it all starts and stops with defense for Utah. They were 15th in the country in total yards allowed (317.1 YPC), while yielding just 101.6 yards per game on the ground to finish sixth in the nation. They also allowed 19.2 PPG to end up 17th in the country.
Junior QB Tyler Huntley (collarbone) is listed as questionable for Friday's game. He completed 149-of-233 passes for 1,762 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while also posting 304 rushing yards with four scores. He is a dual-threat signal caller for sure, checking in third on the team in rushing. If he cannot go it would be freshman QB Jason Shelley (54-of-96, 723 yards, three TD, one INT) taking the reins. No matter who is under center, they'll be handing off to junior RB Zack Moss, who led the team with 1,092 rushing yards (6.1 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns. Junior RB Armand Shyne is the change-of-pace back, posting 442 yards and five scores on 95 carries. WR Brittain Covey is the Swiss Army Knife for Utah. He ran for a score, had a receiving touchdown and he was the primary kickoff and punt return specialist, too. He ranked 103rd in the country with 1,137 all-purpose yards.
Betting Trends to Watch
-- The Utes head into the game 5-0 ATS in their past five appearances on Friday, for whatever that's worth. They're also 7-1 ATS in their past eight appearances on a grass surface, while going 10-3-1 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning record. Utah has cashed in four of the past five outings on a neutral site field, while cashing in six of their past seven conference tilts. They have covered six of the past eight overall.
-- The Huskies have also excelled on Fridays, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight on the day. However, they're struggled with just one cover across the past eight conference battles, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning sides. The Huskies have also failed to cover in each of their past five appearances on a grass surface.
-- The 'over' has connected in four straight for Utah against teams with a winning overall mark, although the under is 7-3 in the past 10 outings on grass.
-- For Washington, it's been all 'under' all the time. The under is 9-3 in their past 12 overall, while going 6-2 across the past eight neutral-site battles. In addition, the under has hit in eight of the past nine games against teams with a winning record.
-- In this series, the underdog has hit in five of the past six battles, while the 'over' is 4-1 across the past five battles, with the under hitting earlier this season.
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, November 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N ILLINOIS (7 - 5) vs. BUFFALO (10 - 2) - 11/30/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.
BUFFALO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BUFFALO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
BUFFALO is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTAH (9 - 3) vs. WASHINGTON (9 - 3) - 11/30/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
UTAH is 66-37 ATS (+25.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
UTAH is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 46-21 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
WASHINGTON is 94-124 ATS (-42.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 2-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-0 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________
NCAAF
Week 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, November 30
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Utah @ Washington
Utah
Utah is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Utah
Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
__________________