Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 11/9/18
NCAAF
Week 11
Trend Report
Friday, November 9
Louisville @ Syracuse
Louisville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 5 games
Louisville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Syracuse
Syracuse
Syracuse is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Syracuse is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Fresno State @ Boise State
Fresno State
Fresno State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Fresno State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Fresno State
Boise State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
__________________
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, November 9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISVILLE (2 - 7) at SYRACUSE (7 - 2) - 11/9/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRESNO ST (8 - 1) at BOISE ST (7 - 2) - 11/9/2018, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 144-106 ATS (+27.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 144-106 ATS (+27.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
FRESNO ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-1 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________
Friday’s games
Louisville is terrible; they hammered Syracuse the last four years, beating them 62-28/56-10 the last two years. Cardinals lost their last six games overall, allowing 59.3 ppg in last four games- they’re 4-6 as road underdogs the last five years,, but 0-4 this year. Louisville allowed 368-492 rushing yards the last two games; their last five games went over the total. Syracuse won its last three games, scoring 40-51-41 points; average total in their last four games is 78.8 (over 3-1). Orangemen allowed average of 492 ypg in their last three games.
Boise State is 3-2 in last five meetings with Fresno State; Bulldogs upset Boise 28-17 at home LY, then lost to the Broncos 17-14 in MW title game the next week. Fresno lost its last eight visits to Boise, but covered the last two. Fresno won its last seven games overall; they’re 3-1 on road- this is first time this year- they’re an underdog. Bulldogs were 4-0 as an underdog LY. Boise won its last four games; they’re 6-17 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Four of last five Fresno games stayed under the total.
__________________
Preview: Louisville at Syracuse
In the midst of a three-game winning streak and a climb up the rankings, No. 13 Syracuse hosts slumping Louisville in an ACC matchup on Friday. The Orange are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2013, ranked 13th in the College Football Playoff rankings, and have a chance, with a win against the Cardinals, to go undefeated at home for the first time since 2001.
The key for the Orange has been a dynamic offense featuring senior quarterback Eric Dungey (13 passing TDs, 10 rushing TDs). He was quiet last week in a 41-24 triumph over Wake Forest, but the team racked up five rushing scores - one by Dungey - in scoring 40-plus points for the third straight game. In all, Syracuse is averaging 43.3 points to rank eighth nationally, while the Louisville defense comes in at 125th nationally in defense (40.8 points allowed per game). The Cardinals were smashed by Clemson last week, 77-16, as the team gave up 661 total yards, including 492 on the ground.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2. LINE: Syracuse -21
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (2-7, 0-6 ACC): This current six-game skid is the longest losing streak for Louisville since the team dropped 10 in a row spanning the 1997 and 1998 seasons. "I'm not too happy with the way we played, particularly on defense," coach Bobby Petrino said, "but you have to take your hat off to Clemson." The veteran coach hopes his team bounces back behind Jawon Pass, who has completed more than 58 percent of his passes only once all season and has thrown at least one interception in seven of the nine games.
ABOUT SYRACUSE (7-2, 4-2): This is a big game for the Orange, who cannot afford a loss if they hope to reach a major bowl game, especially with meetings with Notre Dame (netural site) and Boston College (road) still remaining on their schedule. While Dungey has been solid, fellow senior Jamal Custis leads the team in receiving yards (734) and receiving scores (five). "Can't say enough about what (the seniors have) done to change this culture ... and give us an opportunity to do greater things in the future," coach Dino Babers said. "Whatever happens, they're going to be known as the class that got this thing turned around and headed in the right direction."
EXTRA POINTS
1. Louisville has taken four straight meetings, including a 56-10 thumping of the Orange last season.
2. Syracuse has won 13 of its last 16 weekday games.
3. The Orange are a plus-12 in turnover margin, the best mark in the ACC.
PREDICTION: Syracuse 55, Louisville 19
__________________
Preview: Fresno State at Boise State
Boise State’s blue turf has not been kind to No. 17 Fresno State, which is winless in its last nine games against the Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. The surging Bulldogs, who are 23rd in the College Football Playoff rankings, look to end the streak Friday in a critical Mountain West showdown against the Broncos, who have won four in a row following a loss to San Diego State.
Fresno State is riding a seven-game winning streak and boasts a stellar defense that has allowed an average of 7.2 points in five conference contests. Defensive backs Mike Bell and Tank Kelly have three interceptions apiece but figure to be tested by Boise State quarterback Brett Rypien, who needs 36 yards to become the Mountain West’s all-time passing yardage leader. “He’s an experienced, great player,” Bulldogs coach Jeff Tedford told reporters. “He’s had a lot of success throughout his career and he has a lot of playmakers around him. He’s very smart, doesn’t turn it over. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country.” The game features a pair of senior signal-callers in Rypien and the Bulldogs’ Marcus McMaryion, who threw for 274 yards and two scores in last week’s 48-3 win over UNLV.
TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2. LINE: Fresno State -3
ABOUT FRESNO STATE (8-1, 5-0 Mountain West): Fresno State has held its last 19 opponents to 30 points or fewer and has one of the top linebackers in the country in junior Jeff Allison (team-high 84 tackles), who left last week’s game early due to injury but is expected to start Friday. The Bulldogs’ impressive offensive line provides elite protection for McMaryion, who has 20 touchdown passes against three interceptions and has only been sacked five times. The team’s deep receiving corps include tight end Jared Rice and wide receiver KeeSean Johnson (62 catches for 858 yards and six scores).
ABOUT BOISE STATE (7-2, 4-1): The Broncos’ injury-plagued defense recorded seven sacks against BYU but received another blow after linebacker Riley Whimpey (team-high 55 tackles) was ruled out for rest of the season due to a torn ACL suffered late in the contest. Fresno native Tyler Horton leads the secondary with 30 tackles and four recovered fumbles. The Broncos have struggled to run the ball consistently this season, but Alexander Mattison provided a spark with 89 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 21-16 win over BYU.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Fresno State has outscored its opponents 119-14 in the third quarter.
2. The Bulldogs closed last year’s regular season with a 28-17 home victory over Boise State before the Broncos answered with a 17-14 win in the Mountain West championship game in Boise.
3. Fresno State is 7-0 on the road under Tedford in Mountain West regular-season games.
PREDICTION: Fresno State 27, Boise State 17
__________________
Fresno State at Boise State
Brian Edwards
Boise State hasn’t been a home underdog since facing Boston College in the 2005 Humanitarian Bowl in the last game of the Dan Hawkins Era. The Broncos haven’t been home ‘dogs in a regular-season game since the 2001 opener vs. Washington St., and they haven’t been home puppies in a conference game since taking on Nevada in 1999.
Nevertheless, Bryan Harsin’s team will be in that role Friday night at Bronco Stadium when Fresno State (8-1 straight up, 8-1 against the spread) comes calling in a rematch of last year’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game at this same venue on the smurf turf.
As of early Thursday night, most betting shops had Fresno State installed as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 53. BSU was +125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).
Jeff Tedford returned to his alma mater after a dreadful 1-11 campaign in 2016. He quickly turned Fresno State into just the second FBS team to go from double-digit losses to double-digit wins in the span of one season. Since Tedford took over, Fresno State has compiled an incredible 18-5 SU record to go with a 18-3-2 ATS mark.
Two of the losses came in back-to-back weeks last year at top-ranked Alabama and at sixth-ranked Washington. The Bulldogs took the cash in both instances, however.
Fresno State opened the season with a 79-13 home win over Idaho before dropping a 21-14 decision at Minnesota in Week 2. Since then, the Bulldogs have won seven games in a row both SU and ATS, with each victory coming by at least 18 points. They’re off a 48-3 win at UNLV as 27-point road ‘chalk.’
Senior QB Marcus McMaryion, the transfer from Oregon State who is in his second season as a starter at FS, completed 26-of-35 passes for 274 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for 39 yards on seven attempts. KeeSean Johnson had eight receptions for 97 yards, while Michiah Quick had five catches for 49 yards.
FS is ranked 11th in the country in scoring with its 40.4 points-per-game average. McMaryion has connected on 70.9 percent of his passes for 2,416 yards with a 20/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 157 yards and seven scores, averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
Johnson, a first-team All-MWC selection in 2017, is on his way to duplicating those honors. He has 62 receptions for 858 yards and six TDs. Jared Rice has 38 catches for 477 yards and three TDs, while Jamire Jordan has caught 20 balls for 279 yards and two TDs.
Sophomore RB Jordan Mims has rushed for 306 yards and four TDs, in addition to making 19 catches for 274 yards and two TDs. Another sophomore RB, Ronnie Rivers, has 265 rushing yards and five TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Rivers has 10 catches for 167 yards and two TDs.
FSU is ranked 14th in the nation in total defense, 16th at defending the pass, 30th in run defense and second in scoring ‘D’ (12.3 points per game). This unit is led by junior LB Jeff Allison, who has recorded 84 tackles, three tackles for loss, two interceptions for 27 return yards, two QB hurries, one pass broken up and 0.5 sacks.
Tedford’s bunch is 4-1 both SU and ATS in five road games, including a 38-14 win at UCLA, a 21-3 victory at Nevada and a 38-7 triumph at New Mexico. As a road favorite on Tedford’s watch, the Bulldogs have produced a 5-0-2 spread record.
Boise State (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) is 4-1 in league play, trailing Utah St. by one game in the MWC’s Mountain Division. The Broncos will host the Aggies in both team’s regular-season finale on Nov. 24, so they need a win over FSU to keep control of their own destiny to get back to the MWC Championship Game.
Since dropping a 19-13 decision to San Diego St. as a 13.5-point home favorite on Oct. 13, BSU has won four consecutive games. However, the Broncos have merely one cover in that span and are mired in a 1-3-1 ATS slide. They failed to get the money in last week’s 21-16 win over BYU as 11.5-point home ‘chalk.’
BSU jumped out ahead of the number in the first quarter, going ahead 14-0 on an Alexander Mattison one-yard TD run and a seven-yard TD pass from Brett Rypien to A.J. Richardson. The Cougars would get a pair of field goals in the second quarter to cut the deficit to 14-6 at halftime. Then when Zach Wilson scored on a four-yard TD run midway through the third quarter, BYU was down by only one point.
Boise St. would answer with a Mattison three-yard TD run with 1:44 left in the third quarter. BYU got a 41-yard FG with 6:32 remaining, but that was as close as it would get. The 37 combined points went way ‘under’ the 53.5-point tally.
Mattison rushed for 89 yards and two scores on 25 carries, in addition to catching five balls for 40 receiving yards. Rypien completed 23-of-35 passes for 214 yards with one TD and an interception. Richardson had four catches for 53 yards and one TD.
Rypien is second in school history in career passing yards behind only Kellen Moore. He has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 2,779 yards with a 24/6 TD-INT ratio this year. Senior WR Sean Modster has 45 receptions for 660 yards and four TDs, while Richardson has 39 grabs for 653 yards and eight TDs. Junior WR John Hightower has 30 catches for 496 yards and six TDs, while C.T. Thomas has 30 receptions for 397 yards and three TDs.
Mattison has run for a team-best 726 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 4.1 YPC. Hightower has rushed eight times for 163 yards and a pair of scores.
BSU has won three of its four home games while compiling a 2-2 spread record. This is obviously the first home underdog situation since Harsin took over for Chris Petersen in 2014.
When these schools met in last year’s regular-season finale, Fresno St. won by a 28-17 count as a seven-point home underdog. The victory gave FSU the MWC’s West Division title and forced a rematch in Boise the following week.
The 45 combined points in the first encounter at Bulldog Stadium dipped ‘under’ the 50-point total. McMaryion threw for 332 yards and two TDs without committing a turnover, while Johnson had six receptions for 119 yards and two TDs. Rypien threw for 278 yards without a TD or a pick, but Mattison was limited to 63 rushing yards and one TD on 15 totes.
BSU avenged the loss by winning 17-14 as a 9.5-point home ‘chalk’ in the MWC Championship Game the following week. The ‘under’ cashed for a third straight time in this rivalry when the 31 combined points dropped below the 50.5-point tally.
Fresno State led 14-10 at intermission, but the Broncos got the game-winning points on Ryan Wolpin’s two-yard TD run with 4:42 remaining. Rypien threw for 246 yards without committing a turnover, while Mattison ran for 50 yards and one TD on 14 attempts. McMaryion struggled by completing only 16-of-34 throws for 172 yards and zero TDs compared to one interception. He ran for 33 yards and two scores on seven carries.
The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for FSU, 4-1 in its road assignments. The Bulldogs have watched their games average combined scores of 52.8 PPG.
The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for BSU, 2-2 in its home outings. The Broncos have seen their games average combined scores of 61.7 PPG.
Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
__________________