NCAAFB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Friday 12/21/18

Bahamas Bowl
C-USA/MAC teams split the four Bahamas Bowls, with an average total of 66; FIU is 1-2 in bowl games, losing 28-3 to Temple LY- coach Davis is 5-3 in bowls. Panthers split their last four games after a 6-2 start; under Davis, they’re 6-3 vs spread as underdogs, 3-0 this year. FIU was outgained by 238+ yards in three of their last four losses. Toledo lost its last two bowls, getting blanked 34-0 by Appalachian St LY as a 7-point favorite. Rockets won four of their last five games after a 3-4 start, scoring 56-51 points in last two games; Toledo allowed 412+ TY in 10 of their last 11 games- they’re 2-5 vs spread in their last seven games as a single-digit favorite. Last five FIU games went over the total; over is 7-4 in Toledo games.

Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise
BYU won at Arizona/Wisconsin in September, but lost three of last five games, and stumbles in here with 6-6 record. Cougars didn’t go to a bowl LY, and lost three of their last four bowls before that- they did hold last six opponents to 327 or fewer TY. Western Michigan has 1-7 record in bowl games, with only win over MTSU in the Bahamas three years ago. Broncos lost three of their last four games after a 6-2 start; they allowed 42+ points in all five of their losses, are 7-0 when they give up less than 40 points. WMU lost two games that they scored 42+ points in this season. BYU is 9-4 vs spread in last 13 games as a double digit favorite. Underdogs won three of last four Potato Bowls, with average total of 66.2 in last six. Four of last five BYU games stayed under total; last four WMU games went over.

Friday's Bowl Tips
December 18, 2018
By Joe Williams

**Florida International vs. Toledo**

Bahamas Bowl History

-- The Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) from Conference USA take on the Toledo Rockets (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Mid-American Conference (MAC) in the Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl.

-- Butch Davis leads his Golden Panthers into the school's fourth-ever bowl game. They won their initial postseason appearance in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl against Toledo by a 34-32 score back in 2010 under Mario Cristobal, now the head honcho at Oregon. Under Davis, FIU is 0-1 after getting trucked 28-3 by Temple in the Gasparilla Bowl last season.

-- Toledo has a much lengthier bowl history, as this will be their 18th postseason game. They were blanked last season by Appalachian State 34-0 in the Dollar General Bowl on Dec. 23, 2017, and each of their past two bowl games have been losses to the Mountaineers. This will be their first appearance in the Bahamas Bowl representing the MAC. After starting out 6-1 in their first seven bowl games the Rockets are 4-6 SU since a loss in the 2002 Motor City Bowl.

-- FIU has been a friend of bettors this season with a 9-3 ATS mark, including covers in their first four games and each of their two games against Power 5 conference members. They became bowl eligible on Oct. 27 at Western Kentucky, earliest in school history for that accomplishment. They followed that up with a stinker against rival Florida Atlantic, falling 49-14 as two-point favorites at home. The 'over' ended up cashing in their final five games, too.

-- Toledo whipped up on VMI of the FCS in their opener, covering a 48 1/2-point number, but they fell the next week to Miami-Florida by a 49-24 score the following week in the Glass Bowl. The Rockets rebounded nicely, though, shooting down Nevada 63-44 as 10 1/2-point favorites in their highest-scoring game of the season (combined points). Toledo went over the 50-point mark on six occasions, and they scored at least 24 points in 10 of their 12 outings.

-- Toledo ranked 30th in the nation with 448.5 total yards per game (YPG), while posting 223.6 yards per contest to check in 22nd in the country. They were also an impressive 11th in points scored, posting 41.1 PPG. Defensively the Rockets had issues, ranking 94th in total yards allowed (430.1 YPG), 105th in passing yards allowed (257.8 YPG) and 78th in rushing yards allowed (172.3 YPG). They also yielded 30.2 PPG to rank 84th. This one could be a shootout, folks.

-- QB James Morgan was impressive for FIU, completing 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,727 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions, but he is a pro-style QB and will never be misconstrued with a Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson or other athletic, running quarterbacks. He had a trio of dependable receivers in WR CJ Worton (36-620-6), WR Austin Maloney (28-582-5) and WR Maurice Alexander (35-444-5).

-- When Toledo has the ball, it's all about QB Eli Peters. He no longer has QB Mitchell Guadagni (shoulder) breathing down his neck, as the latter is done for the season with an injury. Peters completed 54.6 percent of his passes for 1,573 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He is a little more mistake-prone, and less athletic, than Guadagni, who was much more of a dual threat. RB Bryant Koback rushed for 875 yards and 13 scores, while RBs Art Thompkins and Shakif Seymour rolled for a combined 1,089 rushing yards and 11 scores on the ground. WR Cody Thompson is the big-play threat with 10 touchdowns on just 43 grabs, while WR Diontae Johnson and WR Jon'Vea Johnson each had seven receiving scores.

-- FIU has covered four in a row against teams with a winning record, and four of the past five overall. They're also 5-2 ATS in the past seven non-conference games. However, they're 0-4-1 ATS in the past five tries against MAC foes, and 0-5-1 ATS in the past six neutral-site battles.

-- Toledo has covered four of the past five as well, while going 8-3 ATS in the past 11 on grass. They're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven outside the MAC, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven tries against winning teams.

-- The over has cashed in five in a row for FIU, but the under is 6-2-1 in their past nine games in the month of December.

-- The under is 4-1 in Toledo's past five bowl games, while going 5-1 in their past six neutral-site tilts. The under is also 26-12-1 in their past 39 against winning teams. The over has cashed in four in a row outside of the conference, however.

-- Kickoff is slated for 12:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Western Michigan vs. Brigham Young**

Idaho Potato Bowl History

-- It's time for the 22nd installment of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at Albertson's Stadium in Boise, Idaho. The game features the Western Michigan Broncos (7-5 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) of the Mid-American Conference (MAC) against the Brigham Young Cougars (6-6 straight up, 8-4 against the spread), an FBS Independent.

-- Western Michigan will be playing in their ninth-ever bowl game, and their history in the postseason hasn't been great. They're 1-7 SU all-time, with their only victory in the 2015 Bahamas Bowl against Middle Tennessee. This is their second trip to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, losing their last trip in 2014 against Air Force by a 38-24 score.

-- BYU has an extensive bowl history, but lately it hasn't been terribly good. They're 1-3 SU in their past four bowl games, although they did win their last appearance on Dec. 21, 2016 against Wyoming in the Poinsettia Bowl. This will be their first-ever appearance in the Idaho Potato Bowl. They have appearance in a bowl game only once against the MAC, losing 21-3 in the Motor City Bowl on Dec. 27, 1999 against Marshall, then a member of the conference.

-- Western Michigan didn't start out well this season. They were 0-2 SU/ATS in the first two games, losing to Syracuse and Michigan while allowing 104 total points. They turned things around with a 68-0 win over FCS Delaware State, and that kick-started a six-game win streak, including a 4-0 conference start to gain bowl eligibility by Oct. 20. That's good that they wrapped it up early, as they had a three-game conference losing skid from Oct. 25-Nov. 13 before wrapping up the regular season with a 28-21 win against eventual conference champ Northern Illinois. They finished the season 2-6 ATS in the final eight games.

-- BYU had a strange up-and-down season, and you never knew who was going to show up. They won at Arizona 28-23 to kick off the season as 11 1/2-point underdogs, but followed that up with a 21-18 loss at home to California as two-point favorites. So naturally they went to Wisconsin as 23 1/2-point favorites and won outright, 24-21. BYU was waffled by Washington 35-7 on Sept. 29, and they were hammered by Utah State 45-20 on Oct. 5 to slip to 3-3 SU/ATS. They hung 49 on Hawai'i on Oct. 13 in a win, then followed it up with a 7-6 loss at home to Northern Illinois on Oct. 27. While they were also 3-3 SU in the final six games, they did manage an impressive 5-1 ATS mark during the span.

-- Western Michigan ranked 29th in offense, posting 448.8 yards per game, including 205.0 yards per game on the ground to rank 32nd in the country in rushing. They were also 36th in the nation with 33.2 points per game allowed. Defensively they ranked 51st in the country with 378.3 yards per game given up, and 48th in the land in passing yardage (209.3 YPG). The Broncos were tuned up for 33.3 points per game to check in 103rd in the nation.

-- BYU struggled on offense, posting just 354.8 yards per game to finish 108th in the nation. They weren't great passing (94th in the country) or rushing (88th in the country), while posting just 25.4 yards per game to finished 94th. Defense carried the Cougars, ranking 18th with just 325.0 yards per game allowed, 31st in passing yards (195.2 YPG) and 27th in rushing yards (129.8 YPG). They also had a decent 21.7 PPG allowed to finish 28th. And for whatever reason, BYU had the best field-goal percentage against, as opponents made just 33.3 percent of their attempts against the Cougars.

-- Western Michigan lost QB Jon Wassink (foot) to a season-ending injury in late October, so QB Kaleb Eleby was thrust into the starter's job. He completed 64.9 percent of his passes with 917 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Eleby wasn't nearly the dual threat as Wassink, who had 16 passing scores and six rushing TDs. RB LeVante Bellamy is the yardage threat, running for 1,172 yards (6.2 yards per carry) and six scores, while Jamauri Bogan was the hammer in short yardage with 702 yards, 4.5 YPC and 15 touchdowns. WR Jayden Reed led the way with 792 yards and eight scores, and WR D'Wayne Eskridge is a deep threat with 19.9 yards per reception, posting 715 yards and three scores on just 36 grabs.

-- BYU has a handful of injuries heading in, but none more important than RBs Squally Canada (lower body) and Lopini Katoa (knee), the top two backs. RB Matt Hadley, a former linebacker, filled in for the two, but he is done for the season with a leg injury. Katoa (77-427-8) and Canada (91-412-5) split the workload this season. If they cannot go it would be RB Riley Burt (46-213-1) tasked with stepping up. QB Zach Wilson (1,261-8-3) took over the starting job from Tanner Mangum (1,063-5-4) midway through the season, and TE Matt Bushman (25-459-2) and WR Talon Shumway (20-319-3) are the ones to watch in the receiving game.

-- Western is 2-6 ATS over the past eight games overall, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven outside of the conference. They're also 1-4 ATS in the past five following a straight-up win.

-- BYU enters on a four-game cover streak, and they're 10-4 ATS over the past 14 non-conference tilts. However, they're 2-6 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in the past four bowl contests.

-- The 'over' is 4-0 in Western's past four overall, and 4-0 in their past four contests on a fieldturf surface, too. The over is 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a cover.

-- The 'under' is 24-9 in BYU's past 33 games overall, 7-3 in their past 10 neutral-site games and 12-4 in the past 16 against teams with a winning overall record.

-- Kickoff is slated for 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets Preview and Predictions 2018-12-21

MAKERS WANTED BAHAMAS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Florida International's regular season ended on a disappointing note as its 28-25 loss to Marshall prevented the school from earning a coveted spot in the Conference USA title game. But all was not lost, however, as the Panthers still garnered a well-deserved trip out of the country to face Toledo on Dec. 21 in the Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl in Nassau. It's FIU's second straight bowl berth under coach Butch Davis (0-1) - and only the fourth in the program's history - while Toledo has a much richer postseason tradition with eight bowl appearances in the last nine years and 18 overall.

2. While FIU stumbled a bit at the finish with two losses in its last four games to fall into a second-place tie in the East Division of C-USA, it still equaled the school record for victories (eight) - with a chance to surpass it with a Bahamas Bowl win. The sentiment was quite a bit different in Toledo, where the Rockets soared down the stretch to keep alive their bowl hopes, winning five of their last six contests to extend their streak of winning seasons to nine. Toledo also finished tied for second in the West Division of the Mid-American Conference - putting the teams on a collision course for the Bahamas Bowl, which annually pits the MAC against C-USA in a series currently even at two wins apiece.

3. Offense will be the name of the game when the teams meet for only the fourth time in their history, the last of which came when the Panthers posted a 34-32 victory in the 2010 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl to take a 2-1 advantage in the series. FIU brings in a quarterback somewhat familiar to Toledo as James Morgan threw five touchdown passes against the Rockets in 2016 while starting for Bowling Green, and now he's lighting it up in his first season with the Panthers, throwing for multiple touchdowns in 10 of his last 11 games. The Rockets will counter with an offense that has scored at least 45 points in four of their last five games, surpassing 50 in three of those contests and six times overall this season.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Toledo -6

ABOUT FIU (8-4, 6-2 C-USA): Morgan proved to be the answer at quarterback this season, leading C-USA in both passer rating and yards per attempt while throwing 26 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions, but he saved his worst performance for the Panthers' biggest game - the season finale against Marshall in which he failed to throw a scoring pass for the first time all year and recorded his first multi-interception outing of the season with a pair of picks. While the passing attack grabs most of the attention, the Panthers also have a solid running game led by Napoleon Maxwell and D'Vonte Price, and the duo proved its worth by finding some wiggle room against a Marshall defense ranked ninth in the nation against the run. FIU's defensive front has been pushed around at times this season, giving up 4.6 yards per carry, which won't get the job done against a Rockets team that is relying much more on the ground game as it is averaging 5.3 yards per rush and 223.6 yards per contest.

ABOUT TOLEDO (7-5, 5-3 MAC): The Rockets thought they were set at quarterback with Mitchell Guadagni filling the void left by star Logan Woodside, but the MAC's most efficient passer (162.0 rating) missed the last four games due to injury and isn't expected to play in the Bahamas Bowl, leaving the job again in the hands of Eli Peters. Toledo hardly missed a beat without Guadagni, however, as the offense still chewed up chunks of yardage - producing over 430 yards in each of the last five games thanks to a powerful backfield-by-committee that amassed a total of 677 in the last two contests alone. While the Rockets expect to continue that success against FIU's not-so-dominant defensive line, their secondary will face its own challenge trying to contain the Morgan-led Panthers as the unit surrendered over 300 yards passing six times this season and ranks 102nd in the nation with 257.8 passing yards allowed per game.

PREDICTION: FIU 44, Toledo 40
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Western Michigan Broncos vs. Brigham Young Cougars Preview and Predictions 2018-12-21

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL STORYLINES

1. BYU is back in the postseason after last season's 4-9 finish snapped a run of 12-straight bowl appearances, but how motivated will the favored Cougars be for the Dec. 21 matchup against Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and a December trip to Boise? Before the postseason pairings were set on Dec. 2, more than a few Cougars were campaigning on social media for a warm-weather bowl, but instead they'll be playing on the blue turf at Albertson's Stadium for the second straight month following a 21-16 loss to Boise State on Nov. 3. "I'm excited," defensive back Dayan Ghanwoloku said during the team's bowl news conference. "I wanted (to go) somewhere warm, but Idaho will do. It's a bowl game, so I'm just happy to be at a bowl game."

2. At 6-6 in Tim Lester's first season coaching his alma mater a year ago, Western Michigan was one of three bowl-eligible teams that did not receive a postseason invitation. But thanks in no small part to a regular season-ending win over eventual Mid-American Conference champion Northern Illinois, the Broncos are bowling for the fourth time in five seasons and will be making their second Potato Bowl appearance following a 2014 loss to Air Force in Boise. "It means everything," Western Michigan senior center John Keenoy told MLive.com on Dec. 2. "For the seniors, we're just happy to have another opportunity to play together as a team. This bowl is known around Western Michigan, we've been there, we're very excited to go and we get more practices for the young guys, so it's great for the program."

3. Both the Cougars and Broncos are expected to be led by freshman quarterbacks in the game. At BYU, Zach Wilson replaced benched senior Tanner Mangum for the Oct. 13 contest against Hawaii and has accounted for 10 total touchdowns and three interceptions on the season while guiding the Cougars to a 3-3 finish. Meanwhile, Western Michigan's Kaleb Eleby replaced injured junior Jon Wassink (ankle surgery) in the first quarter of an Oct. 25 loss to Toledo and has accounted for six TDs and two interceptions over the last four games.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: BYU -12

ABOUT WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5): It's been a season of streaks for the Broncos, who lost to Syracuse and Michigan to open the year, then reeled off six straight wins before dropping three in a row prior to the 28-21 victory over Northern Illinois. Western Michigan ranked third in the MAC in total (447.2 yards per game) and rushing offense (204.6), on the legs of All-MAC First-Team running back LeVante Bellamy (conference-best 97.7 yards) and Third-Team selection Jamauri Bogan (58.5). Defensively, the Broncos surrender 33.3 points (10th in the 12-team MAC) and 378 yards (sixth) as they're led by linebacker Drake Spears (6.8 tackles per game) and defensive lineman Ralph Holley (eight sacks).

ABOUT BYU (6-6): It's been an up-and-down season for the Cougars, who started 3-1 - including a 24-21 road win over then-No. 6 Wisconsin on Sept. 15 - but have lost five of eight games since, including a 35-27 setback against rival Utah in the regular-season finale as they failed to protect a 27-7 third-quarter lead. Due to injuries and personnel adjustments, no player finished with more than 459 rushing or receiving yards, but the Cougars do expect to have senior running back Squally Canada (412 rushing yards, five TDs) available after he missed the last two games with a concussion. Tight end Matt Bushman (25 receptions, 459 yards, two touchdowns) and wide receiver Talon Shumway (20, 319, three) are the team's top aerial targets while senior linebacker Sione Takitaki (99 total tackles, 8.5 for loss) leads a defense which allows only 21.7 points and 325 yards per outing.

PREDICTION: BYU 31, Western Michigan 23
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NCAAF

Long Sheet

Friday, December 21

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FLA INTERNATIONAL (8 - 4) vs. TOLEDO (7 - 5) - 12/21/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BYU (6 - 6) vs. W MICHIGAN (7 - 5) - 12/21/2018, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report

Friday, December 21

FIU Golden Panthers
Florida International is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida International is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida International's last 5 games
Toledo Rockets
Toledo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Toledo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Western Michigan Broncos
Western Michigan is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Western Michigan is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Michigan's last 6 games
BYU Cougars
Brigham Young is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brigham Young's last 5 games
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