Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 11/24/18
Best 13 games, Friday/Saturday
Iowa beat Illinois 63-0 LW, snapping 3-game skid; Hawkeyes are 3-1 as home faves this year, after being 12-22-1 in that role from 2012-17. All seven Iowa wins this season are by 10+ points. Nebraska won four of its last five games after an 0-6 start; Cornhuskers had scored 31+ points five games in row, before stifling Michigan State 9-6 LW- they’re 6-2 in last eight games as road dogs. Iowa won last three games with Nebraska, winning last two years by combined score of 96-24; Six of last eight games went over total; three of last four Nebraska games stayed under.
Virginia lost two of last three games after a 6-2 start; Cavaliers allowed 242.3 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Over last seven years, Virginia is just 1-1 as a road favorite. Virginia Tech won its last 14 games with Virginia, which lost its nine visits to Blacksburg- they lost 52-10 in last visit here two years ago. Tech lost its last four games, giving up 42.5 ppg; three of those games were at home. Hokies are 0-3 as home underdogs this year; over last decade, they’re 4-7 in that role. Three of last four Virginia games went over the total.
Oklahoma is 6-0 vs West Virginia in Big X play, winning three visits here by 28-1-12 points; average total in those six games is 73.7. Sooners won their last five games, scoring 48+ points in all five games; under Riley, Oklahoma is 2-5 as road favorites, 1-3 this year. Sooners are 5-3 in last eight games where spread was 3 or fewer points. West Virginia won three of last four games, scoring 41+ points in all four; over last decade, Mountaineers are 4-6 as home underdogs. Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Oklahoma games, 4-0 in WVU’s last four games.
Washington State won its last seven games since a 39-36 loss at USC; Coogs are 9-1 vs spread this year. Wazzu is 13-7 in its last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-1 this year. Washington won last five Apple Cups, winning 45-17/31-13 in last two visits to Pullman. Huskies won three of last four games; they lost their last two road games by total of five points. Under Petersen, Washington is 4-3 as road underdogs; last time they were a road dog was 2015. Under is 6-3 in last nine Washington games, 3-2 in Coogs’ last five games.
Ohio State won its last three games but allowed 31+ points in three of last four games; Buckeyes are home underdog for first time in seven years- over last 11 years, they’re 2-1 as home dogs. Michigan won its last ten games since an opening loss to Notre Dame;; Wolverines are 5-2 as a home favorite this season. OSU won its last six games with Michigan; underdogs covered four of last five series games. Wolverines lost their last eight visits to Columbus (3-5 vs spread). Under is 5-3 in last eight OSU games, 3-1 in last four Michigan games.
Utah State won its last ten games since a 38-31 loss at Michigan State in their opener; Aggies escaped Colorado State 29-24 LW, when Rams’ TD on a Hail Mary was nullified by a penalty. Under Wells, USU is 8-12 as road underdogs, 1-0 this year. Boise State won its last six games, holding last three foes under 20 points. Broncos are 6-17 in last 23 games as a home favorite, 2-2 this year. Boise won four of last five games with USU; Aggies lost 21-10/50-19 in last two games on the blue turf. Over is 7-2-1 in Utah State games; last three Boise games stayed under.
Underdogs are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 Tennessee-Vanderbilt games; Vandy won four of last six meetings, winning 42-24/45-34 last two years. Winner of this game becomes bowl eligible. Tennessee lost two of its three road games but covered all three; they were held under 300 TY in three of last five games. Vanderbilt scored 31+ points in its five wins; they’re 0-6 scoring less than 31. Under Mason, Commodores are 4-10 as home favorites, 0-2 this season. Three of last four games for both teams stayed under the total.
TCU lost four of its last six games; they scored total of 40 points in last three games. Over last 11 years, Horned Frogs are 3-5 as home underdogs, 1-1 this year. Oklahoma State lost four of last six games; they scored 31+ points in last four games. Cowboys are 1-3 on road this year, allowing 35.5 ppg; they’re 5-3 in last eight games as road favorites, 1-2 this year. OSU/TCU split their last four meetings, with underdogs winning last three SU. Three of last four TCU games stayed under total; over is 5-2 in OSU’s last seven. TCU is bowl eligible if they win this game.
Florida State lost three of last four games, needs win here to be bowl eligible; FSU had life/death struggle with BC last week, while Florida had a glorified scrimmage in its easy win over Idaho. Seminoles are 4-2 SU at home- over last 11 years, FSU is 1-5 vs spread as home underdogs. Florida won seven of its last nine games; they’re 6-3 in last nine games as road favorites, 2-0 this year. FSU won its last five games with Florida, winning 31-13/24-19 in last two played here. Over is 6-2 in last eight FSU games, 4-1-1 in Gators’ last six games.
LSU was held to 19-0 points in their two losses; they allowed less than 20 points in their last five wins. Tigers won two of three true road games this year- under Orgeron, they’re 3-0 vs spread as road underdogs. Texas A&M won five of its last seven games, scoring 41-38 points in last couple games. Aggies ran ball for 518 yards last two weeks- they’re 4-1 vs spread as home favorites this year. LSU won its last six games with A&M, winning last three visits here, by 15-6-5 points. Three of last four LSU games, five of Aggies’ last seven games stayed under the total.
Indiana won four of last five games with Purdue, winning last three games played here, by 2-7-20 points. Hoosiers lost five of their last six games after a 4-1 start; they’re 3-3 SU at home, are 3-6 in last nine games as a home underdog, 1-2 this year. Purdue lost three of last four games, giving up 41-47 points the last two games; Boilermakers are 2-2 as road favorites this year, after being road favorite only one time in previous five seasons. Five of last six Indiana games went over; Winner of this matchup between 5-6 teams becomes bowl eligible.
Home side won last five Notre Dame-USC games; favorites covered last six. Irish lost last two visits to LA, 45-27/49-14. Notre Dame is 11-0, clinches spot in national playoff with win here; they covered six of last eight games, are 3-0 on road this season, with all three wins by 10+ points. Irish are 6-2 in last eight games as a road favorite. USC is 5-6, needs upset win here to go to a bowl; Trojans lost last two games by 1-7 points; they’re a home underdog for first time in five years. Over is 6-2 in last eight ND games.
Arizona State ran ball for 250+ yards in five of its six wins; they’re 1-5 running for less than 250. Arizona held its last four foes under 160 YR. Wildcats won two of last three games, need win to go to a bowl. Home side won last five Arizona-ASU games; Sun Devils lost their last two visits to Tucson, 51-35/42-35. Arizona State won three of its last four games; three of those four games were decided by 3 or fewer points. Sun Devils are 1-4 SU on road; they’re 1-3 in last four games as road favorites. Four of last six ASU games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in Arizona’s last four.
November 20, 2018
By BetDSI
College Football Best Bets – Week 13
It's always a good feeling to know that I've been doing my part in keeping the office clean, as last week's plays were the fourth consecutive week of getting the broom out and sweeping the board. Both East Carolina and UCF got off to some sloppy starts in their respective games, but once those offenses got rolling and the defenses were able to make a few stops there was no looking back.
So while looking back on this 8-0 ATS run with best bets is nice, it doesn't mean anything relative to this week's plays. Hopefully that broom stays within reach this week though as it's these two plays that have made my board for this week:
Best Bet #1: Georgia Tech +17
At 7-4 SU, Georgia Tech has no concerns about being Bowl bound next month, as they enter the week on a four-game winning streak overall (six of seven) and are looking to finish the regular season on a high note. That won't be easy against a team as good as Georgia, but defending the option attack Georgia Tech employs is always tough with only a week to prepare. Add in the huge SEC Championship game with tremendous National Title implications against Alabama next week for the Georgia Bulldogs, and this becomes a real tough spot to be laying 17 points.
The fact that Georgia sees this Georgia Tech team each and every year does work in their favor in terms of prep, but being the home side in this rivalry has not been good in recent years. The visitors in this rivalry game have won each of the past five meetings SU, and Georgia Tech has been catching points in every single one of those games.
Not only are the visitors 5-0 SU, they are also 5-0 ATS, and after last year's 38-7 beatdown of Georgia Tech cause them to finish with a 5-6 SU record and miss out on a Bowl game, you know that the Yellow Jackets would love to do what they can to make Georgia's National Title aspirations become nothing more than a pipe dream.
That means that in the big picture we've got an option team, catching 17 points on the road, in a traditional spot that the road team has had success, against the #5 ranked team in the country who's championship hopes (conference and nationally) are ultimately on the line seven days from Saturday. Win or lose in this specific game, that's just a horrific spot to even consider laying 17 points with anyone in any year, and yet current betting percentages posted at VegasInsider.com have Georgia getting about 70% of the support.
Simply put, this is too many points to pass up in a spot like this. Georgia Tech's ability to sustain long 8+ minute drives limits the amount of possessions Georgia even gets at trying to win this game by 18+ points. And while the Bulldogs were in a similar position a year ago in that they knew they were headed to Atlanta for the SEC title, they didn't know who they would face at the time. That's not the case this year as they are clearly on a collision course with #1 Alabama, and with one eye on that game for a few weeks now, I believe this is the week it ends up showing up in their point spread W/L record.
Best Bet #2: SMU -2.5
The SMU Mustangs couldn't capitalize on their opportunity to stay in the race for a AAC West division crown with their home loss to Memphis last week, but the Mustangs still have plenty to play for on Saturday.
SMU enters this week at 5-6 SU and needing to beat a 2-9 Tulsa team to become Bowl eligible. Having ended their four-year Bowl drought last year with their 51-10 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Frisco Bowl, getting back to postseason football for the second straight year would be another great building block for the direction of this program and I believe they don't waste this opportunity.
SMU may be 5-6 SU and more importantly 4-3 SU in AAC play, but they really didn't catch many breaks with their schedule this year. Two of those six defeats came on the road against Top 11 teams in UCF and Michigan, and they've dealt with all the top teams in conference play (UCF, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati) along the way. They may not be the best AAC team in the conference this year, but had a bounce or two gone their way in either the Memphis or Cincinnati games, their ticket to a Bowl game might already be punched.
The Mustangs get one more crack at it this week against a bad Tulsa team that may be on the precipice of letting HC Phillip Montgomery go at season's end.
Since the start of 2017, Tulsa is just 3-16 SU overall, with their two wins this year coming against FCS school Central Arkansas, and Connecticut – quite possibly the worst team in all of FBS football this season. The kids on this team likely know some major changes are coming and with nothing to play for other than personal pride for one another, I can't imagine Tulsa puts up much of a fight when things head south early.
Tulsa's lone ATS win in their last five games came in that victory over Connecticut, and they simply don't have a talented enough defense to get the necessary stops in a game like this. The line is just too short in favor of SMU, as concerns about a letdown after failing in their quest to become division champs are overblown.
A point spread like this is in the field of “pick the SU winner and they'll cover the number,” and with SMU having a Bowl berth to play for and Tulsa just looking to move on to whatever 2019 brings, the Mustangs add another victory to their resume.