Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 11/1/18
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Akron Zips Preview and Predictions 11-01-2018 in NCAAF
NCAAF Previews 31st October 2018 By Charles Jay for Scores And Stats
by Charles Jay Scores & Stats on 10/31/2018
The Northern Illinois Huskies might be sky-high right now, after coming up with a superb defensive performance on the road at BYU. Then again, maybe they are in danger of having a letdown after such an effort.
The Akron Zips are sitting with a winning record, although it's pretty hard to attribute that to anything in the way of offense on their part.
These teams have not confronted each other since 2013, but they will meet up in a key Mid-American Conference battle on Thursday night at InfoCision Stadium in Akron.
TV: CBS Sports Network, 7 PM ET. LINE: Northern Illinois -6.5
ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS: NIU has now won four games in a row, and this last game was especially impressive, particularly on the defensive end, as they went to Provo and held Brigham Young to just two field goals in a 7-6 win. It was the first time they've won a game scoring only seven points in 20 years. And for those people who have followed the Huskies (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS), this isn't very surprising. After all, this is a team that is ranked highly in a lot of different defensive categories, including rushing defense (19th), sacks (six), Tackles for Loss (20th) and turnover margin (17th). And BYU had only 93 rushing yards on 37 attempts, as Northern Illinois prevented freshman quarterback Zach Wilson from getting a lot of support. Marcus Childers (1064 passing yards, eight touchdown passes) is potentially more dangerous with his feet, as he has the high game rushing this season for this squad, with 169 yards against Ohio. The defensive standouts include linebacker Antonio Jones-Davis, who ranks in the top 20 in solo tackles, and of course All-American defensive end Sutton Smith, who can seemingly disrupt an opposing offense all on his own. When you look at the Northern Illinois schedule, their losses have come against Florida State and two nationally-ranked teams – Iowa and Utah. So they have been more severely tested in the non-conference schedule than most other MAC squads have been.
ABOUT AKRON: If Akron can win two of its last four games, it will actually finish over the .500 mark and qualify for a bowl. Remember that the season opener against Nebraska was canceled due to bad weather. But they have road games at Eastern Michigan and Ohio, so this home contest takes on a lot of importance. The Zips (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) pounded their way to a 17-10 victory over Central Michigan last time out, but they had the benefit of five CMU turnovers in the process. The positives included 112 rushing yards by Van Edwards, but Kato Nelson did not show good stuff, completing just 10 of his 27 passes for 149 yards. For the season, Nelson is barely 50%, with 1348 yards, so clearly, Akron is not going to win a lot of scoring tools with people. Linebacker John Lako is really running up some incredible defensive numbers; against Central Michigan, he had 23 tackles and a fumble recovery. On the season, he ranks #8 in the nation in solo tackles, averaging 6.3 per game. There's not a good history for them here, as Northern Illinois has won six of the last seven meetings in this series, even though the last encounter took place in 2013 – a 27-20 loss to a Huskies team that was nationally-ranked at the time.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Northern Illinois has been deadly on the road against opponents from its own conference. In fact, they have covered 23 of their last 28 as a MAC visitor.
2. Akron is currently second in the nation in defensive touchdowns, with four.
3. Since the year 2010, Northern Illinois is 19-3 in games that have been played on Tuesdays, Wednesdays or Thursdays, a significant factoid considering that the MAC has now gone in that direction for its television opportunities.
PREDICTION: Northern Illinois 26, Akron 14
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Western Michigan Broncos vs. Ohio Bobcats Preview and Predictions 11-01-2018 in NCAAF
NCAAF Previews 31st October 2018 By Charles Jay for Scores And Stats
by Charles Jay Scores & Stats on 10/31/2018
The Ohio Bobcats have one of the best quarterbacks in the Mid-American Conference in Nathan Rourke, and they have made a habit of coming back from deficits, although there are only so many times a team can continue to come from behind.
The Western Michigan Broncos had one of the best MAC quarterbacks as well, but they lost him for the season and now have to go with a freshman who is very talented but still very raw.
These MAC contenders will do battle on Thursday night at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, before a national television audience.
TV: ESPNU, 7 PM ET. LINE: Ohio -1.5
ABOUT WESTERN MICHIGAN: The Broncos got beaten from pillar to post in their last outing against Toledo. Of course, they were behind the eight-ball very early (in fact, four minutes into the game), as quarterback Jon Wassink, who had completed 61.6% of his passes with a nice 16-6 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, suffered a foot injury that will likely keep him out for the rest of the season. So they had to turn to freshman Kaleb Eleby, who promptly came in and completed his first eight passes and 23 of 28 overall, for 293 yards and two touchdowns. This didn't make a difference in the outcome of the game itself, as Toledo gashed the WMU defense for 515 yards in a 51-24 rout. It was head coach Tim Lester's intention to redshirt Eleby, who is the highest-rated QB recruit ever to sign with the program (ranked the #19 dual-threat QB by one service), and that meant holding him out until the last four games of the season. Well, WMU (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) was in its ninth game, so it's unlikely that redshirt will be possible unless there is no MAC title game or bowl game to play in. Eleby is mobile and, by all accounts, has a "cannon" for an arm, and Lester acknowledges that he has the stronger arm between him and Wassink. Needless to say, there is a lot of confidence in him around the program. All he needs is seasoning.
ABOUT OHIO: Frank Solich's team (5-3 SU & ATS) has won two games in a row, but they came against a Bowling Green squad that had just fired its head coach and a Ball State team that lost its quarterback during the game. Nonetheless, they have outscored these last two foes by a 101-28 margin. Against Ball State last time out, they had a whopping 414 yards on the ground and scored six rushing touchdowns for the first time in 21 seasons. They also produced the best defensive effort of the season, from a statistical standpoint, as they held the Cardinals to 242 yards. Nathan Rourke didn't have very imposing numbers (127 passing yards, 77 on the ground), But everybody in the league knows what he is capable of, and he is still third in the nation in yards per completion (15.4). He has been on the watch lists for the Manning, Maxwell and O'Brien awards for quarterbacks. In each of their five victories, the Bobcats have been behind at some point in the ballgame. If they chalk up one more victory, they will become bowl-eligible for the tenth year in a row.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Jon Wassink also got injured last season, missing the last four games of the season with a shoulder injury. His replacement, Reese Goddard, completed just 45.8% of his passes and then decided to transfer.
2. Ohio head coach Frank Solich is one of only three coaches for the Bobcats to have registered at least 100 wins. One of the others is Don Peden, for whom their home field is named.
3. Ohio has covered eleven of its last 14 games where it has been an underdog.
PREDICTION: Ohio 35, Western Michigan 30
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Temple Owls vs. Central Florida Knights Preview and Predictions
NCAAF Previews 30th October 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 10/30/2018
Heisman Trophy candidate McKenzie Milton's status is still day-to-day as ninth-ranked Central Florida goes after its 21st straight victory when Temple visits for an American Athletic Conference showdown Thursday night. The junior quarterback, who has accounted for 22 touchdowns this season, missed the 37-10 victory at East Carolina on Oct. 20 and coach Josh Heupel told reporters it will be a game-time decision whether Milton is under center for the Knights.
Freshman Darriel Mack Jr. was outstanding in MIlton's place versus the Pirates, totaling 189 yards of offense with a touchdown, as UCF's offense still churned out 427 yards and should be primed to show off its weapons against a strong defense. "It'll be a lot of fun," Heupel told reporters. "Thursday night, national TV, great opponent, opportunity to come back at home in front of our crowd. It's been a while. Hopefully we have a packed house." Temple boasts a three-game winning streak and has matched UCF with a 4-0 record in the American East Division, leaning on a defense that is 22nd nationally in yards per game against (330.5) and fourth in passing yards allowed per contest (147.5). The Owls, who dropped a 45-19 decision to the Knights in Philadelphia last year, have their own injury issues as defensive tackle Freddie Booth-Lloyd (undisclosed) and running back Ryquell Armstead (ankle) will be game-time decision.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: UCF -10.5
ABOUT TEMPLE (5-3, 4-0 AAC): The Owls have scored five touchdowns on defense and that unit is led by junior linebacker Shaun Bradley (team-best 53 tackles, two interceptions) along with senior tackle Michael Dogbe (six sacks). Armstead (626 yards rushing) has missed the last two games and junior Jager Gardner gained 108 yards on 26 carries in his place the past two contests. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Russo has completed 56.5 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns along with 10 interceptions and senior Ventrell Bryant (28 catches, 395 yards in 2018) is his top target with at least one reception in 43 straight games.
ABOUT UCF (7-0, 4-0): The Knights totaled 316 yards on the ground against East Carolina with Mack rushing for a season-best 120 and sophomore Greg McCrae totaling a career-high 99 with a touchdown. If Milton is able to play, that gives the Knights' talented receiving trio of sophomores Gabriel Davis (33 catches, 493 yards, five TDs) and Tre Nixon (27, 364, three), along with junior Dredrick Snelson (24, 310, two), more of a chance to shine. UCF has forced 18 turnovers this season and ranks third in the nation in turnover margin (plus-1.86), led by sophomore defensive back Richie Grant (team-best 58 tackles, three interceptions).
EXTRA POINTS
1. Bryant needs 124 receiving yards to pass Willie Marshall (2,272) for first on Temple's all-time list.
2. UCF K Matthew Wright owns 51 career field goals and needs two to tie Shawn Moffitt for the school record.
3. The Owls beat then-No. 22 Cincinnati on Oct. 20 and faces No. 17 Houston (7-1), followed by South Florida (7-1), the next two weeks.
PREDICTION: UCF 34, Temple 21
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Temple at Central Florida
October 30, 2018
By Joe Nelson
This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a pair teams that have matching 4-0 records in the AAC East.
Temple visits Central Florida tonight in a game that could decide the division title as the Knights host Thursday night football looking to extend a 20-game winning streak.
Match-up: Temple Owls at Central Florida Golden Knights
Venue: Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: Thursday, November 1, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: UCF -10½, Over/Under 61
Last Meeting: 2017, UCF (-12) 45, at Temple 19
A spotlight opportunity for Central Florida Thursday will give the team with the nation’s-longest winning streak a chance to make its case for College Football Playoff consideration in front of a larger audience. Going 13-0 last season, UCF is 7-0 this season for 20 consecutive wins since losing in bowl action in December of 2016. The Knights are 13-7 ATS in that span including 7-4 ATS in home games.
It has seemingly been an easy transition for former Missouri offensive coordinator Josh Heupel taking over the program after Scott Frost left for Nebraska after just two seasons in Orlando. The Knights needed a big comeback for a 31-30 win at Memphis but that has been the only drama on the field in the 7-0 start with every other win coming by at least 20 points.
UCF is up to #9 in both the AP and Coaches Polls but there is no realistic shot for UCF to get serious national playoff consideration. Not that it would have made a big difference but a road game at North Carolina was cancelled in September to deplete the schedule further as the only power conference win came at home against Pittsburgh. That 45-14 results looks a bit stronger at this point in the season with Pittsburgh looking like an a decent ACC team but unless there is major chaos in the major conferences down the stretch or several upsets on championship Saturday, it seems unlikely that a potential 12-0 UCF team will even be considered for the final four.
Making the assumption that the Knights will run the table is a big leap as the toughest AAC games of the season remain in a stacked November schedule starting this week. Home games with Navy and Cincinnati follow before a road finale at South Florida. UCF would then need to beat the West champion, likely Houston in the AAC title game.
Quarterback McKenzie Milton was a surprise scratch for the last game at East Carolina on October 20. Milton was discussed early in the season as potential Heisman candidate but his numbers this season haven’t come close to matching his great 2017 figures. He is averaging 1.2 fewer yards per pass while posting only 16 touchdowns after throwing 37 last season while not even a third of the way to last season’s rushing total. Information on his injury has been limited and he has been considered day-to-day this week. The Knights threw for just 111 yards without Milton in the win over East Carolina, leaning on the ground game with 316 rushing yards with freshman Daniel Mack taking over at quarterback.
Expectations were high for Temple this season in the second season under Geoff Collins. Losses to FCS Villanova and Buffalo started the season but the Owls have rallied to win five of the last six games with the only loss at Boston College. Wins over Maryland and Navy on the road were impressive and in the last game Temple snuck out a fortunate narrow win over Cincinnati to move to 4-0 in conference play.
Like UCF, Temple still has a tough remaining schedule as even if they win this game there would be no guarantee they could hold on to the division title with Cincinnati and South Florida close behind at 3-1. Temple still plays South Florida in mid-November and will also have a tough crossover game with West leader Houston next week.
Temple is also dealing with key injuries with running back Ryquell Armstead and defensive tackle Freddie Booth-Lloyd question marks this week. Armstead leads the team with 626 rushing yards despite missing the past two games and they have missed his production with the Owls posting only 3.8 yards per rush on the season but Armstead averaging 5.1 yards per carry. UCF is one of the nation’s top rushing teams with 5.8 yards per attempt and 261 yards per game as Armstead would be important in helping the Owls keep pace on the ground.
Temple is the surprise national leader in yards per pass attempt allowed defensively, surrendering only 4.5 yards per pass attempt as even if Milton plays, UCF is likely going to have to lean on the ground game. The Owls have 24 sacks and eight interceptions while allowing only nine passing touchdowns. Only Michigan has held opposing quarterbacks to a lower QB Rating this season.
Against a lighter schedule UCF also has very good numbers defending the pass. Frank Nutile took over at quarterback last season with success for the Owls but after a slow start sophomore Anthony Russo moved into the starting role for Temple. Russo has good size but has been mistake-prone with 10 interceptions in 191 pass attempts this season. Russo has been intercepted at least once in every game he has started but he also has eight passing touchdowns in his last three games while throwing for nearly 800 yards in those three conference wins.
Both teams had close calls in the last games played on October 20. Temple saw a 10-0 lead disappear hosting Cincinnati and trailed 17-10 most of the second half before tying the game in the final minute and winning in overtime. UCF’s 37-10 win over East Carolina was closer than it looked. Playing without Milton UCF led 23-10 through three quarters and caught a few big breaks late as East Carolina fumbled on the goal line with the ball returned for a touchdown the other way turning a potential one-score game into a 20-point lead. The Knights were actually out-gained 496-427 but had a 5-0 turnover advantage and still wound up narrowly covering as a heavy road favorite.
Last Season: After a 3-5 start to the season Temple won back-to-back games to start November before playing as a double-digit home underdog against undefeated UCF. Temple led 10-7 in the second quarter before UCF rattled off 24 straight points before halftime and eventually won 45-19. Temple actually had a 397-384 yardage edge in the game but had a 5-0 turnover deficit. That win moved the Knights to 10-0 before they turned in three straight seven-point wins over South Florida, Memphis, and Auburn to complete the perfect season.
Historical Trends:
-- These schools have met each of the last five years with UCF going 3-2 S/U and ATS.
-- Temple won the last meeting in Orlando with a 26-25 win in 2016 as a slight underdog.
-- Temple is 28-14 ATS since 2007 as a road underdog including going 2-0 ATS this season and 8-3 ATS since 2015.
-- UCF is 30-18 ATS as a home favorite since 2010, including going 22-13 ATS as a double-digit home favorite, with a 3-1 ATS mark in that role this season.