Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 11/15/18
Western Michigan won its last four games with Ball State, scoring 52+ points in last three- they hammered the Cardinals 55-3 (-14) at home LY. WMU lost its last two games after a 6-2 start, allowing 51-59 points; Broncos are 4-1 on road, 2-2 as AF- they’re 8-5-1 in last 14 games as road favorites. Ball State lost its last three games, allowing 42-52-45 points; under Neu, Ball is 1-7 as home underdogs, 0-3 this year. Cardinals are 2-3 at home TY, with losses by 8-8-22 points. Over is 3-1 in last four Western games, under is 6-3 in Cardinal games.
Toledo Rockets vs. Kent State Golden Flashes Preview and Predictions 11-15-2018
There's no chance of getting to the Mid-American Conference title game, but there could still be further opportunity for the Toledo Rockets if they can win one of the remaining two games on their schedule because that would make them bowl-eligible. And such a thing has become the norm for this program, which is now headed by Jason Candle. Even without the quarterback who started the season for them, they will soldier on.
The Kent State Golden Flashes like to call themselves a developing program, and there's an argument that even head coach Sean Lewis, who is one of the youngest in the country, is learning on the job. At this point, however, are they just playing out the string?
We'll find out, as these teams clash on Thursday night at Dix Stadium in Kent, O.
TV: CBS Sports Network, 6 PM ET. LINE: Toledo -13
ABOUT TOLEDO: With the 38-15 loss to Northern Illinois last time out, Toledo (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) now has to go at least one more game in order to qualify for a bowl. They have done so for the last eight years, so this is something they have become accustomed to. If they fail here, they'll have another chance to do it against Central Michigan next week. Even though they had an overall advantage in yardage (by a 431-427 margin), they allowed 296 rushing yards to the Huskies and gave up a blocked punt that was returned for a TD by All-American Sutton Smith. That kind of turned the tables on the Rockets, who lead the nation with six blocked punts. Toledo is still second in the MAC in scoring, as they tally 38.6 points a game, but they will once again be without Mitchell Guadagni, with no real timetable as to his return. So Eli Peters continues to fill his spot. And he is certainly able to find receivers like Cody Thompson (110 yards last week vs. NIU). And one of the strengths of the Rockets is that they can spread it around to other big-play guys like Jon'Vea Johnson and Diontae Johnson. Thompson is now the second most productive receiver in school history, with 3200 yards. He still has a chance to catch Eric Page (3446 yards) for #1 on the list.
ABOUT KENT STATE: The weather conditions were unusual against Buffalo last time out, and that took away some of the passing game, and the Golden Flashes (2-8 SU, 6-4 ATS) simply could not keep up, as the Bulls ran up a 478-183 edge in yards in a 48-14 final. It was not QB Tyree Jackson who did the damage against them, but the Buffalo running game, which had 358 yards. It was over early, as Buffalo scored on its first four possessions, and Woody Barrett, the first player Sean Lewis recruited to Kent State, had just 27 passing yards. It was backup QB Dustin Crum who led the Flashes on two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. Kent State is going to have some occasions where the offense wears out the defense because they play at such a fast pace; they are 12th in the nation in plays per game. There are a couple of defensive players who deserve mention; Dalton Hicks made ten tackles in just his third start for KSU, and Cepeda Phillips, who Lewis inserted at middle linebacker, has 29 tackles in the three games since that happened. So there is progress. Still, Kent State has allowed an average of 447 yards in conference games. Things could have been a little different, as the Golden Flashes has lost one-point decisions to both Ohio and Akron, but the only game they have won in the Mid-American Conference came against defenseless Bowling Green.
EXTRA POINTS
1. When these teams played in 1972, Jack Lambert, who went on to become a Hall of Fame linebacker for the Pittsburgh Steelers, had 29 tackles for Kent State, which won the MAC championship with a home win against Toledo.
2. The Rockets have won seven of the last eight encounters between these two, and hold a 25-21 advantage in the series, but they have not played each other since the 2015 season.
3. Toledo has been a road warrior within the conference, covering 13 of its last 20 times as the visiting team.
PREDICTION: Toledo 44, Kent State 27
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Tulane Green Wave vs. Houston Cougars Preview and Predictions 11-15-2018
Tulane and host Houston both need a win in Thursday's American Athletic Conference meeting to stay in the hunt for the league's West Division title. The Green Wave's three-game win streak and Houston's two straight losses have set up a logjam atop the West with SMU, which holds the tiebreaker over both.
Junior quarterback Justin McMillan has won all three games since taking over as starter but its the Green Wave defense that's made a difference. Tulane has allowed 16.6 points during the win streak and set an NCAA record with 20 pass breakups last week. Houston's defense has been the problem for the Cougars, allowing 104 points and 1,051 yards in losses to SMU and Temple. All-American defensive lineman Ed Oliver hasn't played in three weeks (bruised knee) and the Cougars are without two other starting defensive lineman as Jerard Carter and Isaiah Chambers are lost of the season with injuries.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Houston -10
ABOUT TULANE (5-5, 4-2 American): McMillan has 721 passing yards, six passing touchdowns (including scores for 86, 73 and 79 yards last week) and no interceptions in six appearances. Darnell Mooney and Terren Encalade - who had a late touchdown catch last season to beat the Cougars - have all of 11 TD receptions for the Green Wave. Senior cornerback Donnie Lewis Jr. has a team-best three interceptions and 15 pass breakups - including six last week - while sophomore end Patrick Johnson is second in the American with nine sacks.
ABOUT HOUSTON (7-3, 4-2): Junior quarterback D'Eriq King (2,900 passing yards) leads the nation with 35 passing touchdowns and has added another 13 on the ground as the Cougars are ranked second nationally in total offense (546.1 yards). King's 10-game run with at least one rushing score is the nation's longest active streak while the Cougars have six receivers with multiple touchdown catches. The Cougars have forced at least one turnover in all 10 games but their recent struggles have dropped them to last nationally in passing yards allowed (314.1) and 124th in red-zone defense (allowing 42 scores in 45 trips).
EXTRA POINTS
1. King needs four touchdown passes to break the American's single-season record of 38 (Memphis' Riley Ferguson, 2017). He broke the league's record for touchdowns responsible for last week.
2. Tulane has rushed for at least 100 yards in 38 straight games.
3. The Green Wave held their past three opponents to fewer than 20 points, joining California, Clemson, Georgia and Michigan with that distinction.
PREDICTION: Houston 41, Tulane 38
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Florida Atlantic Owls vs. North Texas Mean Green Preview and Predictions 11-14-2018
NCAAF Predictions 14th November 2018 By Charles Jay for Scores And Stats
by Charles Jay Scores & Stats on 11/14/2018
The North Texas Mean Green started out the season looking like a house on fire and garnered some national attention in the process. But while they have a high-performance quarterback in Mason Fine, they have slowed down considerably. Now, after suffering a gut-wrenching come-from-ahead defeat last week, their resolve will be tested.
That's because the Florida Atlantic Owls have come on like a freight train these last couple of games, getting back to the basics - which means running the football. And even though Lane Kiffin doesn't necessarily like these mid-week games, he should have his team ready for a 60-minute effort behind a genuine two-fisted ground attack.
These Conference USA squads will square off on Thursday night at Apogee Stadium in Denton, TX.
TV: CBS Sports Network, 9:30 PM ET. LINE: North Texas -3
ABOUT THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS: Coach Lane Kiffin got a very balanced offense against Western Kentucky last time out, as the Owls (5-5 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) got 315 yards rushing and 261 through the air in a 34-15 win that brought them back to the .500 mark. What's scary is that they not only have one star running back but TWO. Devin Singletary is the acknowledged stud; the guy who had 1920 yards and 32 touchdowns and will be playing on Sundays, without a doubt. He had 148 yards on 22 carries against WKU. And then there's Kerrith Whyte, who has logged the ball for 7.2 yards a carry, pummeled Florida International in the Shula Bowl the week before and had 163 yards against the Hilltoppers. They'll be challenged by a North Texas team that has surrendered less than 3.2 yards per carry. Chris Robison says he was in doubt as to whether he would be making the start at quarterback until right before game time. The Oklahoma transfer seemingly had a breakout performance in the second week against Air Force, with 471 yards and three touchdowns. But since then he has just five TD passes and ten interceptions. Kiffin is likely to exercise the option of also inserting De'Andre Johnson into the game to give the Owls more of a runner at the controls. Kiffin, by the way, detests playing these Thursday night games; he complains that it is "always an obstacle for the road team," and that "I don't know if it is in the best interest of the student-athlete at all." He mentions that his team will have only one true practice day because they have to travel in mid-week.
ABOUT THE NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN: They started out the season with a 4-0 mark, but the Mean Green (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) has slipped a bit since with a 3-3 record in conference play. It's probably unfair to say they have "unraveled," except in last week's game against Old Dominion, which took advantage of an emotional turning point to rebound from a 28-point deficit. As the first half was winding down, safety Khairi Muhammad actually spit in the face of OSU's star receiver Jonathan Duhart, getting ejected and supplying what Old Dominion coach Bobby Wilder described as "a lot of unity" out of that action. ODU kicked a field goal at the end of the half and then proceeded to outscore North Texas 24-3 in the second half to win a 34-31 decision. DeAndre Torrey turned in an outstanding game for coach Seth Littrell, with 145 yards on the ground. Mason Fine was intercepted, but it was for only the second time this season. He has 23 TD passes and ranks ninth in the nation with 311.9 passing yards per game. Wide receiver Rico Bussey is second in catches in C-USA with 61, and he provides a more consistent wideout option than FAU possesses. North Texas has some pluses on the defensive side of the ball; they have 30 sacks, which is 15th in the country, and they are also 12th in rushing defense, allowing 103.5 yards per game.
EXTRA POINTS
1. It was ugly last season, as FAU won both meetings - by a 69-31 margin in the regular season, and 41-17 for the Conference USA championship. In the two games, the Owls rolled up the incredible total of 1437 yards (804, then 633).
2. FAU's Devin Singletary is now sixth in the nation in rushing with 1169 yards. His 20 rushing touchdowns lead everyone.
3. FAU has been getting different bowl projections from different sources. ESPN has them going to the Boca Raton Bowl, perhaps against Buffalo, while CBS Sports places them in the Gasparilla Bowl against Cincinnati. Sports Illustrated has them going to the Hawaii Bowl against the host Rainbow Warriors.
PREDICTION: Florida Atlantic 37, North Texas 31
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Toledo scored 45+ points in its five wins, 27 or fewer points in its losses; they allowed 400+ yards in all its I-A games this year. Rockets are 1-3 on road; under Candle, Toledo is 5-3 as road favorite, 0-1 this year. Kent State is 2-8 this year; they lost their MAC home games year by one point each. Flashes are 2-0 as home underdogs this year. Toledo won its last three game with Kent by 31-10-13 points, only meetings in last decade; Rockets won last visit here 30-20 in 2014. Four of last five Toledo games stayed under total; under is 4-1 in last five Kent games.
Houston lost its last two games after a 7-1 start, giving up 45-59 points; they allowed 312 rushing yards in LW’s home loss to Temple. Cougars are 6-4 as home favorites under Applewhite, 2-2 this year. Tulane won its last three games, needs one more win to go bowling; under Fritz, Green Wave is 5-6 as road underdogs, 1-2 this year. Tulane/Houston split last four meetings, with Green Wave winning as 9 and 17-point dogs. Tulane covered its last two visits here. Last four Houston games went over total; under is 7-1 in last eight Tulane games.
Florida Atlantic squashed North Texas twice LY, 69-31 at home, then 41-17 in C-USA title game; UNT had won previous three meetings, by 11-6-14 points. FAU won its last two games, scoring 49-34 points, to even its record at 5-5- they need one more win to go bowling. Owls are 1-4 on road, 1-2 as road dogs; under Kiffin, FAU is 2-2-1 when getting points on road. North Texas is 7-3 but lost two of last three games; under Littrell, Mean Green is 6-4 as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Under is 3-1 in last four FAU games, 8-0 in last eight UNT games.
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Thursday, November 15
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TOLEDO (5 - 5) at KENT ST (2 - 8) - 11/15/2018, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TULANE (5 - 5) at HOUSTON (7 - 3) - 11/15/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 97-127 ATS (-42.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
HOUSTON is 34-57 ATS (-28.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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FLA ATLANTIC (5 - 5) at NORTH TEXAS (7 - 3) - 11/15/2018, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-0 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-0 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NCAAF
Week 12
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Trend Report
Thursday, November 15
Toledo @ Kent State
Toledo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games
Toledo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kent State
Kent State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kent State's last 5 games
Kent State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tulane @ Houston
Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tulane's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulane's last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tulane
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas
Florida Atlantic
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 6 games when playing North Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida Atlantic's last 5 games when playing on the road against North Texas
North Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of North Texas's last 8 games
North Texas is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
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Tulane at Houston
Joe Nelson
This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a West division battle between Tulane and Houston. Both teams are in a three-way tie with SMU at 4-2 on top of the division standings as the victor can remain in the mix for the division title.
Here is a look at tonight’s game to start a big mid-November college football weekend.
Match-up: Tulane Green Wave at Houston Cougars
Venue: at TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, November 15, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Houston -10, Over/Under 67½
Last Meeting: 2017, at Tulane (+9) 20, Houston 17
The American Athletic Conference West has had three different division champions in three years and a fourth new participant to the AAC title game is possible out of the West this season. SMU, Houston, and Tulane are all tied at 4-2 with SMU having wins over both Houston and Tulane. The Mustangs have a difficult game with Memphis this Friday before heading on the road to face Tulsa next week as a loss is certainly possible to open the door for the winner of this game.
Along with Memphis, Houston was considered one of the favorites in the West riding five consecutive winning seasons even after a step-back to 7-5 last season in the first season under Major Applewhite. Houston won the inaugural AAC Championship game in 2015 and grabbed headlines nationally in 2016 with notable wins over Oklahoma and Louisville.
Houston struggled to find a quarterback early last season but D’Eriq King emerged in late October, keying the upset over South Florida and finishing the season with strong results in the air and on the ground. Now a junior King has big numbers, accounting for 48 touchdowns but his passing numbers are slightly down and he has six interceptions this season. He is a threat on the ground as well with 13 rushing touchdowns on 5.9 yards per carry and he ranks 6th nationally in QB Rating behind five players on College Football Playoff contending teams.
Offense hasn’t been an issue for Houston, averaging nearly 48 points per game for the fourth highest mark in the nation. The defense has really struggled however surrendering 34 points per game, including 37 points per game in AAC play. In back-to-back losses the past two weeks Houston has allowed 104 points and four straight foes have scored at least 36 points against Houston while rushing for at least 196 yards. Houston has also benefitted from not drawing UCF or Cincinnati in the East schedule draw.
Houston has one of the highest profile defensive players in the nation with Ed Oliver a projected 1st round NFL pick next spring but Oliver hasn’t played in the past three games and appears likely to be ruled out to play again this week with a lingering knee injury. Houston’s defense has allowed big rushing numbers in recent weeks including surrendering 312 rushing yards in last week’s home loss to Temple and the Cougars are coming off back-to-back double-digit defeats.
Home losses have been rare for the Houston program with a 22-3 S/U record at home since 2014 and it had been 31 games since Houston had lost a home game by more than a single score. Houston was a 27-point home favorite in a 30-18 win over Tulane at home two years ago but last season in New Orleans the Wave pulled off the upset, making this a revenge game in Houston’s final home game of the season.
Tulane started the season with a competitive overtime loss hosting Wake Forest but wound up starting the season 2-5. Three straight wins have put the Wave back in the postseason conversation in the third season for Willie Fritz with Tulane last making a bowl game in 2013. Next week’s home game with Navy will be a reasonable opportunity but Tulane has won its past two road games and could emerge as an AAC title threat with another road win this week.
Tulane runs the option and despite marginal numbers, the results have been better since making a move to Justin McMillan at quarterback. Jonathan Banks started most of last season and the senior was productive in the first seven games this season. McMillan is also a senior and played sparingly until replacing Banks in the loss at Cincinnati in early October. He didn’t play at all the next week but he has been the team’s quarterback the past three games, all wins, albeit against lighter competition than Banks faced in most of his games. McMillan had by far his best passing game last week as Tulane surprisingly threw 28 times for 372 yards to add some different wrinkles to the playbook.
Tulane has been the best defensive team in the AAC West, allowing only 23 points per game with each of the past three foes held to 18 or fewer points. Pass defense has been a strong point holding opposing quarterbacks to just over 52 percent completions and only 7.2 yards per attempt. Tulane also has allowed just 3.8 yards per rush and just 141 yards per game. Houston has only allowed 3.9 yards per rush on the season but the numbers have been heading in the wrong direction the past four weeks.
Houston’s defense will certainly be difficult to trust as a heavy favorite in any matchup though this is a Cougars team that has scored at least 41 points in five of six conference games, a figure Tulane has reached once vs. FBS competition this season. Whichever team controls the pace and avoids turnovers should have the edge and the recent scheduling has played a role in the recent opposing trajectories for these teams.
Last season: Houston trailed 13-3 at halftime at Tulane but seemed likely to pull out the win as there were missed opportunities with a fumble near midfield while also failing going for it on 4th-and-1 from the Tulane 6-yard-line early in the second quarter. On the first drive of the second half King threw an interception in the end zone but after a Tulane interception Houston scored a touchdown to close to within three by the start of the fourth quarter. On the next drive Houston went 91 yards to take the lead but Tulane answered with Banks delivering a 64-yard touchdown pass. Down three in the final minutes Houston again went for it on 4th down rather than attempting a long field goal for the tie and came up empty as Tulane held on for the upset.
Historical Trends:
-- Houston has held a strong home field edge with a 65-16 S/U and 43-33-1 ATS record since 2006 while going 4-1 S/U and 3-2 ATS at home this season.
-- Houston is on a 12-2 S/U and 11-3 ATS run in this series since 2003 though Tulane has covered in the past two trips to Houston including an upset win in 2014 as a 17-point underdog.
-- Tulane is 9-49 S/U and 27-31 ATS as a road underdog since 2008, going 5-6 ATS since 2016 under Fritz with only one S/U upset, with that win the 41-15 win at South Florida earlier this month.
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