Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 11/22/18
Colorado State Rams vs. Air Force Falcons Preview and Predictions 11-22-2018
NCAAF Predictions 21st November 2018 By Charles Jay for Scores And Stats
by Charles Jay Scores & Stats on 11/21/2018
For the Colorado State Rams, it's been a thoroughly disappointing season, and there is really nothing left but to start thinking about next season. However, there is at least one measure of satisfaction they can get from beating the geographic rival.
The Air Force Falcons have also been somewhat disappointed because this is a team that has become accustomed to going to bowl games. But this season they will miss out on that action. Can they close out the season on a winning note?
These teams will meet up on Thanksgiving day at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs.
TV: CBS Sports Network, 3:30 PM ET. LINE: Air Force -14. O/U: 62.5
ABOUT COLORADO STATE: Current Status - The Rams are 3-8 straight-up and 4-7 against the pointspread. They have had only two wins in the Mountain West – taking place against San Jose State and New Mexico. Last week they put up a spirited effort but lost 29-24 ti Utah State when a Hail Mary touchdown was overturned. Still, it can be said that CSU has allowed fewer points only twice then they allowed against the high-octane Aggies. The Good - Colorado State ranks 16th in the nation in passing offense, just shy of 300 yards per game. And interestingly enough, for a team that likes to pass the ball, they are 27th among the 130 FBS teams in time of possession. The Bad - They have given up 450 yards per game, and haven't run the ball enough, averaging just 109. It's been very hard for them to stop people on the ground, as they rank outside the top 100 with 203.7 rushing yards allowed per contest, and they are fourth from the bottom in passing efficiency defense, although that doesn't matter as much here as it usually might. The Rams are one of the 20 most penalized teams in the country, getting flagged an average of 7.8 times per game. They are currently on a four-game losing streak.
ABOUT AIR FORCE: Current Status - Air Force is 4-7 straight-up and 6-3-2 ATS. They are out of the bowl picture unless it's one of those circumstances where there are not enough teams with six wins. But for all intents and purposes, this is their season finale. The Good - As you might expect, rushing is a strength for this team, as they rank fifth in the nation with 273.5 yards per game. And unlike Colorado State, this is a disciplined crew, ranking among the nation's 20 best in terms of fewest penalties per game. They know how to convert when they get in close, scoring points on 92.7% of their red zone trips (seventh in the country). And they are also seventh in time of possession. Air Force does not throw the ball a lot, but they do average 17.6 yards per completion, which is third-best nationwide, and that is not an unexpected thing for teams running the option; Army, for example, leads the nation with 20.34 yards per pass completion. The Bad - They haven't done a great job defending the pass; in fact, they are 116th in the country in passing efficiency defense, and this is always a concern for option-based teams who don't have a chance to practice against sophisticated air attacks. They have intercepted only five passes, and on special teams, they have averaged only 32.3 net yards per punt, next to last in the nation.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Colorado State has been on a rather prolonged pointspread slump, covering just four of their last 17 games.
2. There's quite a difference in the way Air Force defends kickoffs and punts; they are 12th in the nation in kickoff return defense, but just 120th in punt return defense.
3. Last year's game resulted in a 45-28 Air Force victory, as the Falcons rolled up 413 rushing yards on the Rams.
PREDICTION: Air Force 40, Colorado State 21
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Mississippi Rebels Preview and Predictions 11-22-2018
NCAAF Predictions 20th November 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 11/20/2018
Matt Luke will serve as head coach for his second Egg Bowl when Ole Miss hosts No. 20 Mississippi State on Thanksgiving, but the way he sees it, the Gulfport, Miss. native has been involved for most of his 42 years on Earth. "It's a game that means so much to so many people," Luke, who played for the Rebels from 1995-98 and was an assistant coach for 10 years, told reporters. "... It's a 365-day bragging rights. It's just always been important in my family ever since I can remember."
It matters little that the Bulldogs are winding down a season in which many believe they underachieved or that the Rebels need a victory to become bowl-eligible when the Battle for the Golden Egg ensues. "This game has all of the ingredients of what makes college football and a great rivalry special," Mississippi State coach Joe Moorhead, who will experience his first Egg Bowl, told reporters. "Two great opponents, proximity, familiarity, tradition, history. Really, quite frankly and most importantly, a lot of players from the state who have played with or against each other. I think that's what makes this game unique and special." The Bulldogs have struggled on the road in the SEC - albeit versus tough competition, losing to then-No. 17 Kentucky, No. 8 LSU and No. 1 Alabama by a combined 71-10. Ole Miss leads the series 64-46-6, including 58-27-5 since the Battle for the Golden Egg began in 1927, and has won three of the last four meetings after hanging on for a 31-28 upset victory last season after leading 24-6 in the third quarter.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Mississippi State -11
ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-4, 3-4 SEC): The Bulldogs are coming off a 52-6 victory over Arkansas last week as senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald (51.7 completion rating, 14 touchdowns, seven interceptions) passed for four scores and ran for another - extending his school-record total for career rushing TDs to 43. Fitzgerald has recorded team highs of 901 yards and 10 TDs on the ground, with sophomore Kylin Hill (583 yards) and senior Aeris Williams (438) combining for five scores. Senior defensive end Montez Sweat (9.5 sacks) and junior defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons (12.5 tackles for loss, zero sacks) spearhead a defense that has allowed the second-fewest points in FBS at 12.8 per game.
ABOUT OLE MISS (5-6, 1-6): The Rebels have lost four straight after a 36-29 overtime setback at Vanderbilt last week in which quarterback Jordan Ta'amu (19 touchdowns, seven interceptions) passed for a career-high 457 yards with two scores and two interceptions. The senior from Hawaii is second in the country with 348.3 passing yards per game while junior wideout A.J. Brown (six touchdowns) is fifth nationally with 1,259 receiving yards. Ole Miss yields 489.2 yards per game - 123rd among the 129 FBS teams - and ranks 113th against the run (213.8).
EXTRA POINTS
1. Mississippi State has allowed 12 touchdowns - fewest in the FBS.
2. Ta'amu needs 212 passing yards to break the school record for most in a season set in 2015 by Chad Kelly.
3. Fitzgerald joined Dak Prescott - his predecessor at Mississippi State - and Florida's Tim Tebow (2007-09) as the only SEC quarterbacks to rush for 10 touchdowns and pass for 10 in three consecutive seasons.
PREDICTION: Mississippi State 35, Ole Miss 24
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Thursday’s games
Underdogs covered last four Colorado State-Air Force games, with Falcons winning three of those; Rams lost last three visits to the Academy, losing by 3-3-21 points. State lost its last four games, giving up 42 ppg; Rams are 1-3 on road, with losses by 38-28-39 points, and a win in San Jose. CSU is 0-4 as a road underdog this year, after being 6-0 the last two years. Air Force lost four of its last six games; they’re 5-7 in last dozen games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Under is 6-3 in State’s last nine games; four of last five Air Force games went over.
Underdogs covered four of last five Egg Bowls, with visitors winning last three. Mississippi State lost two of last three visits to Oxford, winning last visit here 55-20 in ’16. State won three of its last four games; they lost last three road games, scoring total of 10 points. Bulldogs are 5-6-1 vs spread in last 12 games as road favorites, 1-1 this year. This is Ole Miss’ last game of year; they’re on probation, cannot go to a bowl. Rebels lost their last four games, giving up 38.3 ppg. Under Luke, Ole Miss is 0-4 as a home underdog, 0-2 this year. Three of last four Ole Miss games, seven of last eight Miss State games stayed under total.
By Joe Nelson
Mississippi State and Mississippi will be playing on Thanksgiving night for the second straight season as one of nation’s longest uninterrupted rivalries will be featured in the final Thursday night regular season game of the season. The Egg Bowl features great intensity and has featured numerous memorable games in recent years. Here is a look at Thursday Night Football between Mississippi and Mississippi State.
Match-up: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Mississippi Rebels
Venue: At Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
Time/TV: Thursday, November 22, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Mississippi State -11, Over/Under 59
Last Meeting: 2017, Mississippi (+15) 31, at Mississippi State 28
After a post-game brawl in 1926, Ole Miss and Mississippi A&M (now Mississippi State) created a Golden Egg trophy for the victor although the rivalry game wasn’t referred to colloquially as the ‘Egg Bowl’ until 1979. While both programs have had some ups and downs, the 2014 meeting was one of the high points of the rivalry with two highly ranked teams with #19 Ole Miss upsetting then #4 Mississippi State, 31-17. This year’s game doesn’t carry the same weight, but the intensity on the field will remain strong.
After a messy off-season in 2017, Matt Luke took over as the interim head coach for Ole Miss with the Rebels finishing 6-6 after winning this season finale vs. a ranked Mississippi State squad for the third win in the past four years of this rivalry. Luke was retained to lead the program moving forward and it has been an up-and-down season. A win this week at home will get the Rebels to 6-6 again though Mississippi is still in the midst of a postseason ban.
There were big changes for Mississippi State ahead of this season as Dan Mullen departed after nine solid seasons in Starkville, taking over at Florida. Joe Moorhead was hired to lead the program following a four-year stint as Fordham’s head coach from 2012 to 2015 while serving as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Penn State under James Franklin the previous two years.
Moorhead inherited a great senior quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald to lead his offense, but while Fitzgerald has been productive, he hasn’t had the same statistical success he had in his best season in 2016. He’ll likely surpass his rushing and passing totals from last season by the end of the season but his per carry average has gone down substantially, as has his passing completion rate.
Despite Moorhead’s offensive background, the Bulldogs are 7-4 mainly thanks to the SEC’s second best scoring defense, allowing just 16 points per game in league play. 28 points allowed at Kentucky in the SEC opener has been the season high allowed by the Bulldogs, who held Alabama to a season-low 24 points earlier this month. Mississippi State has only scored 17 points per game on average in SEC play as the least productive offensive team in the entire SEC.
Mississippi has averaged nearly 37 points per game this season, although just 25 points per game in SEC play. The Rebels are surrendering more than 36 points per game however and in SEC play that average is nearly 42 points per game as this matchup will feature a great clash of style and pace.
Mississippi is just 1-6 in SEC play, only beating Arkansas and that win featured a wild comeback, trailing by nine with five minutes to go. Ole Miss has lost the past four games, but two of those results have been single-score games including losing in overtime last week at Vanderbilt.
Jordan Ta’amu has been very productive at quarterback for the Rebels as he’ll likely eclipse 4,000 yards passing this week, while posting nearly 9.6 yards per attempt. Ta’amu isn’t the ground presence that Fitzgerald is but he has rushed for 366 yards while Scottie Phillips is close to 1,000 rushing yards out of the backfield. A.J. Brown leads a talented receiving corps with 81 catches for 1,259 receiving yards, the fifth most yards nationally.
Mississippi State can clinch a winning season in SEC play with a victory this week to get to 5-3 with Mullen surprisingly only topping 4-4 in SEC play once in nine seasons in 2014. The Bulldogs would also finish at worst tied for third in the SEC West with a win with Mullen only finishing above 4th place in that 2014 season to potentially boost its bowl standing.
2016 Meeting: This was a bowl elimination game between 5-6 teams in Oxford. It was a back-and-forth first half with a 27-20 lead for Mississippi State. That score held until just over five minutes to go in the third quarter before the Bulldogs went on a 28-0 run the close the game for a somewhat misleading 55-20 final result. Mississippi State had just a 566-528 yardage edge and benefitted from a 2-1 turnover edge including a fourth quarter pick-six. Nick Fitzgerald rushed for 258 yards and accounted for five touchdowns while current Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson threw for 320 yards for the Rebels, but had two interceptions to match his two touchdowns.
Last season: Mississippi took an early 10-0 lead but the Bulldogs got a pair of field goals before halftime to trail 10-6. A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf scored on receptions of 77 yards and 63 yards from Jordan Ta’amu in the final eight minutes of the third quarter as the Rebels led 24-6. Mississippi State made a late rally to close to within three points with just over a minute remaining but didn’t get the on-side kick attempt. Mississippi State had a 501-355 edge in yardage and a 27-11 edge in first downs but had five turnovers.
Historical Trends:
-- Ole Miss owns a 21-17 S/U and 22-15-1 ATS edge in this series since 1980 including winning and covering in four of the past six meetings.
-- Mississippi State won 55-20 two years ago in Oxford but is 2-7 S/U and 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine road meetings in this series. This will be the biggest road favorite spread for the Bulldogs in this series as far back as there is data to 1980.
-- Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in the past six games as a double-digit favorite including losing 28-7 at Kentucky this September in the most recent instance.
-- Mississippi is 0-5 ATS in the past five games as a home underdog including going 0-2 S/U and ATS this season.
-- Mississippi is 8-5 ATS as a double-digit home underdog since 2006.