Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 12/13/18
Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa
Home game for South Florida, which lost its last five games (all by 10+ points) after a 7-0 start; Bulls threw for a combined 195 yards in last two games- they allowed 220+ RY in six of their last seven games. Under Strong, USF is 5-11 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 this year. Bulls won four of last five bowls, with average total of 79 in last three. Marshall won five of its last seven games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog. Thundering Herd won its last six bowl games. Marshall has a big edge in experience on OL. Favorites covered this bowl four of last six years, with average total of 30.0 last three years. AAC teams are 14-13 vs spread when facing a C-USA squad, 1-4 this year. Three of last four USF games stayed under total; over is 4-1 in last five Marshall games.
Gasparilla Bowl Preview
December 18, 2018
By Joe Williams
**Marshall vs. South Florida**
Gasparilla Bowl History
-- The Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) of the Mid-American Conference (MAC) take on the South Florida Bulls (7-5 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) of the American Athletic Conference (AAC) in the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. The bowl, formerly known as the magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl, the Beef O'Brady's Bowl and the Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl, is played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., which just happens to be the home field of the USF Bulls.
-- The Thundering Herd have appeared in this bowl game in 2011, as well as 2015. The result was the same for Marshall, as they won 20-10 against Florida International as four-point underdogs in '11, and they won and covered as three-point favorites against Connecticut in the '15 installment. The 'under' covered in both of those appearances for Marshall, and has hit in three straight in this bowl game, and six of the past seven.
-- The Bulls of South Florida are making this first appearance in this bowl since the inaugural magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl back in 2008. They were favored by 10 1/2 points in that game and went on to administer a 41-14 beating of Memphis in another game which featured the under.
-- The Herd have had an up and down season. They started with a 35-28 win on the road against Miami (Ohio) as slight 'dogs back on Sept. 1 for their only cover in the first five games. They lost a measuring stick game at home against N.C. State, 37-20, before opening conference play with a road victory at Western Kentucky, 20-17, on Sept. 29. They picked up their first cover in C-USA play on the road at Old Dominion, 42-20, on Oct. 13, and overall they went a respectable 4-2 SU away from home, although they only covered twice. The defense improved as the season went on, allowing 11.5 points per game (PPG) in a four-game conference span from Oct. 20-Nov. 17. They graciously played a season finale game at Virginia Tech, as the Hokies scheduled the conditional game trying to become bowl eligible after having a game cancelled earlier in the season. The Herd took a 41-20 loss in that one on Dec. 1, but they were already locked into a bowl. They finished the season like they started, though, going 1-4 ATS in the final five outings and the 'over' cashed in four of their final five.
-- The Bulls fired out of the chute to open their 2018 campaign, rolling to wins against Power 5 opponents Georgia Tech, 49-38 on Sept. 8 at the RayJay, as well as a 25-19 road win in Illinois on Sept. 15. Overall they started the year 7-0 SU/2-5 ATS, and there was some talk about 'Group of 5' possibilities. However, they ran into a buzzsaw in Houston on Oct. 27, losing 57-36 for their first loss, and they suffered a demoralizing 41-15 loss to Tulane on Nov. 3. USF ended up losing five straight to splash cold water on a great start, ending the season 2-5 ATS in the final seven.
-- Marshall finished 81st in total yards (384.5 YPG) on offense, posting 228.7 YPG to finished 66th in the country. Defensively is where the Herd really excelled, and it's likely the biggest reason they're going bowling. The Herd ranked 23rd in total yards allowed (335.6 YPG) while finishing eighth in the country (103.9 YPG). They also gave up just 22.0 PPG to finish 31st in the country. If they're going to be beaten, they did allow 231.7 yards per game through the air to finish a mediocre 70th in the land.
-- USF ranked 34th in total yards (442.8 YPG) while ranking 36th in the country in the run game (202.5 YPG). It didn't compute to a ton of points, however, as they were 64th in the nation with 29.2 PPG. Defensively they managed to finish just 103rd with 442.0 yards per game allowed, ranking 35th in the country in passing yardage (197.2 YPG). The Bulls were susceptible to the run, giving up 244.8 YPG to rank a dismal 121th in the country.
-- QB Isaiah Green completed 55.4 percent of his passes for 2,060 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. RB Tyler King paced the Herd with a team-high 655 rushing yards and four scores while averaging 6.1 yards per carry, while RB Brenden Knox posted 365 yards and three scores. QB Anthony Anderson worked in the 'Wildcat' and was able to run for 244 yards and a team-high eight scores. In the pass game, WR Tyre Brady is the one to watch, as he finished with a team-best 60 grabs, 819 yards and nine scores. WR Obi Obialo can also be dangerous, posting 463 yards and four scores while averaging 12.5 yards per grab.
-- USF QB Blake Barnett (shoulder) is considered questionable for the game due to injury. He completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 2,477 yards, 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while running for 313 yards and eight scores. On the ground it's all about RB Jordan Cronkrite, who piled up 1,095 yards (6.3 YPC) with nine scores. He, RB Johnny Ford and Barnett combined for at 25 touchdowns on the ground, with at least eight apiece. Oddly enough, USF's leading receiver is also named 'Tyre'. WR Tyre McCants hauled in 58 receptions for 607 yards and three scores.
-- Marshall has won six consecutive bowl games, including each of the past five under head coach Doc Holliday. They're also 11-1 in the past 12 bowl appearances dating back to the Motor City Bowl back in 1998.
-- South Florida will be participating in their 10th all-time bowl game, winning each of the past two (both in the Birmingham Bowl). They're 5-1 SU in their past six bowl appearances, too, including a win over Memphis in the '08 installment of this game. The Bulls have scored 21 or more points in eight consecutive outings.
-- Marshall has covered six consecutive bowl games, and they're 21-8-1 ATS inthe past 30 games outside of the conference. However, they're also 1-4 ATS in the past five overall, 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams and 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings, for which this qualifies since it is USF's home field.
-- South Florida has been terrible against the number, too, going 0-4 ATS in their past four at home, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven overall. They have covered nine of the past 13 against winning teams, but they're also a dismal 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 at home against teams with a winnng road mark.
-- This game has featured many 'under' results over the years, but the over has dominated for Marshall. The over is 4-0 in the past four road contests, 4-1 in the past five overall and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning record. The over is also 16-5 in their past 21 non-conference tilts.
-- The over is 4-0 in USF's past four bowl appearances, and 14-5 in their past 19 against winning teams. However, the under is 8-3 in their past 11 at home.
-- Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. South Florida Bulls Preview and Predictions 2018-12-20
BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL STORYLINES
1. South Florida hopes to soothe the sting of a five-game losing streak that ended the regular season when it takes on Marshall in the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl on Dec. 21 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. The Bulls, who face the Thundering Herd for the first time, started the season with seven consecutive victories and had visions of a major bowl game before injury issues and a leaky defense (39.6 points per game allowed in losses) led to five double-digit setbacks. Marshall won three straight games to seal its fifth bowl appearance in six years before ending the regular season with a 41-20 loss at Virginia Tech.
2. USF goes for its sixth win in seven bowl games after beating Texas Tech and South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl the last two years while the Thundering Herd have won six in a row, including a 31-28 triumph against Colorado State in the 2017 New Mexico Bowl. The Bulls, who are 6-3 overall in bowls, started that run with a 41-14 victory over Memphis in the St. Petersburg Bowl less than 30 minutes away at Tropicana Field in 2008. Marshall won the Beef O'Brady's Bowl in 2011 and the St. Petersburg Bowl in 2015 at Tropicana Field and coach Doc Holliday told reporters: "The state of Florida has been good to our program for several years now and we're excited to get back down to the Tampa area."
3. South Florida hopes to have a healthier offense after a four-week break following the 38-10 loss to No. 7 Central Florida on Nov. 23 and the Bulls, who averaged 35.6 points during their 7-0 start, will face a defense that allowed 22 points per game and tied for sixth in the nation with 39 sacks. USF did not have No. 1 quarterback Blake Barnett in two of its last three games because of a shoulder injury and he may return, but the Bulls will have a new play caller after offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert was hired as McNeese State's new coach after the regular season. Marshall is permitting 103.9 rushing yards per contest while senior linebacker Chase Hancock leads the way with 98 tackles, junior lineman Ty Tyler boasts a team-best eight sacks and 11 players have an interception.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Marshall -2.5
ABOUT MARSHALL (8-4, 6-2 Conference USA): Freshman quarterback Isaiah Green had a solid first year at the helm, throwing for 2,238 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but completed only 55.7 percent of his passes. Sophomore Tyler King rushed for 655 yards in the first seven games, but has been out the last five contests with an undisclosed injury, and freshman Brenden Knox picked up the slack with 485 in the last four - 204 against Virginia Tech. Senior receiver Tyre Brady, a Conference USA first-team pick, is the top target for Green after hauling in 66 passes for 914 yards and nine touchdowns this year.
ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (7-5, 3-5 American Athletic Conference): Barnett threw for 2,498 yards in 10 games, but had 11 interceptions to go along with 11 touchdown passes, and sophomore Chris Oladokun or junior Brett Kean would step in if the former Alabama quarterback can't go. Junior Jordan Cronkrite has rushed for 1,095 yards - sixth most in a season at USF - and the top receiving targets are 5-11, 240-pound senior wideout Tyre McCants (58 catches, 612 yards, three TDs) along with junior tight end Mitchell Wilcox (40 receptions, 506 yards, two TDs). Senior linebacker Khalid McGee leads the beleaguered Bulls' defense with 104 tackles.
PREDICTION: South Florida 31, Marshall 21
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NCAAF
Long Sheet
MARSHALL (8 - 4) at S FLORIDA (7 - 5) - 12/20/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MARSHALL is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
MARSHALL is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a bowl game since 1992.
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NCAAF
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
Thursday, December 20
Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Marshall is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marshall's last 5 games
Marshall is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Marshall is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Marshall's last 7 games on the road
USF Bulls
South Florida is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
South Florida is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
South Florida is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
South Florida is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home
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