NCAAFB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Thursday 12/27/18

Independence Bowl, Shreveport
Temple’s coach is off to Georgia Tech, isn’t coaching here. Owls won six of last seven games after a 2-3 start that included a loss to a I-AA team. Temple allowed 36-45-52 points in their three I-A losses; they’re 7-0 vs I-A teams when allowing less than 36 points. Duke allowed 200+ YR in last five games; they lost four of last six games after a 5-1 start- they lost last two games after a 5-1 start. Blue Devils went from 1960-2015 without winning a bowl; they’ve won last two bowls, 44-41/36-14; this is their 5th bowl in last six years. ACC teams won this bowl last three years; favorites are 4-3 vs spread in last seven, with average total of 65.2 in last five. Last four years, AAC teams are 17-11 vs spread when playing an ACC team. Four of last six Temple games stayed under total; under is 5-3 in last eight Duke games.

Pinstripe Bowl, Bronx
Wisconsin (+5) beat Miami 34-24 in LY’s Orange Bowl; it’ll be a little cooler at this game. Miami lost seven of last eight bowls; four of their last five bowls stayed under total. Miami QB Perry has off-field issues, may be held out of this game; former starter Rozier (threw 144 passes this year) would step in his place. Wisconsin Hornibrook (concussion) is out here. Hurricanes are 6-0 when they score 24+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. Wisconsin is 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 0-4 when they score 21 or fewer points, 7-0 when they score. Underdogs covered this bowl six of last seven years; Big 14 team won three of last four, with an average total of 58.6 in last five. Last five years, Big 14 teams are 18-13-1 vs spread when playing an ACC opponent. Last six Miami games, four of Badgers’ last five games stayed under the total;

Texas Bowl, Houston
Baylor was 1-11 LY, improved to 6-6 this year- this is their 8th bowl in last nine years. Bears are 3-0 vs spread in last three tries as bowl underdogs. Vanderbilt is in bowl for only second time in last five years; they split last four bowls, covering both chances as bowl favorites. Bears lost four of their last six games, are 3-2 vs spread this year in games with single digit spread. Vanderbilt won three of last four games to become bowl eligible, scoring 45-36-38 points in the wins; Commodores are 4-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years; Big X teams are 4-2 in last six tries here, with average total of 53.8 in last five. Five of last six Baylor games, four of last five Vandy games stayed under the total; Since 2011, SEC teams are 17-15-1 vs spread when playing Big X teams.

By Joe Williams

**Duke vs. Temple**

Independence Bowl History

-- The Duke Blue Devils (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Atlantic Coast Conference will square off against the Temple Owls (8-4 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference in the Walk-On's Independence Bowl.

-- Prior to the arrival of head coach David Cutcliffe the Blue Devils of Duke had appeared in just eight postseason games, going 3-5. Since the 2012 season, Duke has appeared in a bowl game in six of the past seven seasons, including victories in each of their past two appearances against Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl in 2015, and Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl last season.

-- The Owls do not have an extensive bowl history, as this will be just their eighth-ever appearance in the postseason. Much of that success has been recently, as they appeared in only the Sugar Bowl (1934) with head coach Pop Warner and the Garden State Bowl (1979) prior to 2009. Since 2009 they're 2-3 in bowl games, winning last season's Gasparilla Bowl over Florida International.

-- Temple will be led by interim head coach Ed Foley, as Geoff Collins accepted the head coaching job at Georgia Tech. Oddly enough, Foley also was the interim when Matt Rhule bolted for Baylor and he will be the only head coach in Temple history to coach the team in two separate bowl games.

-- Duke fired out to a 4-0 SU start, covering their first three. That includes wins over bowl teams Army and Northwestern. They suffered a 31-14 loss against Virginia Tech on Sept. 29, and lost against Virginia at home on Oct. 20. They also fell at Pittsburgh, 54-45, on Oct. 27. Duke was outscored 82-13 in the final two games by Clemson and Wake Forest. The Blue Devils were a tough team to figure, as they went 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in five games as an underdog, and 2-5 SU/1-6 ATS in seven games as a favorite. Bettors might be relieved to see Duke catching 3 1/2 from Temple in this one, as of Wednesday morning.

-- Temple suffered losses to FCS Villanova and Buffalo to start the season, and it looked like it might be a lost season under Collins. They bounced back with a 35-14 win at Maryland on Sept. 15, which perhaps saved their season, and they rattled off wins in five of the next six games. They secured bowl eligibility over Houston, 59-49, on the road Nov. 10, and closed out the season with three straight wins.

-- Temple heads into this one ranked 50th in total yards (420.8 yards per game) while finishing 41st in passing yards (255.8 YPG). They also rolled up 35.6 points per game (PPG) to finished 23rd in the nation. Defensively, the Owls have it on lock down. They were 39th in total yards (356.7 YPG) while checking in seventh in the land against the pass (166.3 YPG). The Owls also finished 47th in the nation in points allowed (24.7 PPG).

-- Duke managed to finish 75th in total yards with 392.6 yards per game, and they were 66th in passing yards (229.6 YPG). Defensively the Blue Devils had some major issues, especially near the end of the season. They ranked 82nd in total yards allowed (419.4 YPG) and 116th in the nation with 222.3 yards per game allowed on the ground. The Blue Devils were also 70th in the country with 27.4 PPG allowed.

-- For Duke, QB Daniel Jones (lower body) is listed as questionable. He threw for 2,251 yards, 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions while also running for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

-- For Temple, QB Anthony Russo (hand) is listed as probable. He managed to pass for 2,335 yards with 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. RB Ryquell Armstead (ankle) is listed as questionable, while third-leading receiver Randle Jones (undisclosed) is also listed as questionable.

-- Temple has posted a 14-6 ATS mark over their past 20 games against winning teams while going 37-17 ATS in the past 54 overall.

-- Duke has covered in four straight bowl games while also posted a 4-0 ATS mark in the past four neutral-site appearances. They have covered seven of the past nine against teams with a winning record, too.

-- The 'under' has hit in five of the past six games in the month of December for Temple, although the over is 4-1 in their past five vs. ACC foes.

-- The 'over' has connected in five straight bowl games for Duke, while going a perfect 4-0 in their past four neutral-site affairs. The under is 4-0 in their past four against winning teams, however.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between the Blue Devils and the Owls.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Miami-Florida vs. Wisconsin**

Pinstripe Bowl History

-- In the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in New York the Miami Hurricanes (7-5 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the ACC will take on the Wisconsin Badgers (7-5 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) from the Big Ten. It's a rematch of last season's Orange Bowl when the Badgers pushed aside the Hurricanes 34-24.

-- The Hurricanes were once one of the most feared bowl opponents, and they went 7-1 SU in an eight-game stretch from 1996-2004. However, they're just 1-7 SU over their past eight bowl appearances, with a lone win in the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 28, 2016 against West Virginia.

-- The Badgers enter on a four-game bowl win streak, including last season's Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl in the season before. They also faced the Hurricanes in the Champs Sports Bowl back on Dec. 29, 2009, winning that one 20-14 in Orlando.

-- Miami had an up-and-down season. They lost a neutral-site game against LSU to start the season, but won five in a row from Sept. 8-Oct. 6. However, they dropped four in a row at Virginia, at Boston College, home to Duke and at Georgia Tech, slipping to 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS. However, the Canes enter this one on a two-game win streak, outscoring Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh by a 62-17 margin.

-- Wisconsin won four of their first five games, but they were just 1-4 ATS during the span. They struggled away from home, losing at Michigan, at Northwester and at Penn State. They ended up covering just three of their 12 games overall, including a 37-15 loss at home to Minnesota in the season finale.

-- The Badgers ranked 38th in total yards (437.0 YPG) while posted 268.4 yards per game on the ground to finish seventh in the nation. QB Alex Hornibrook (concussion) will be missing in this one due to injury. RB Jonathan Taylor is the one to watch, as they'll lean heavily upon him. He rushed for 1,989 yards (7.1 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns.

-- The Hurricanes were outstanding on defense, ranking second in the nation in total yards allowed (268.1 YPG) while ranking first overall in passing yards allowed (140.8 YPG). They were also strong against the run, ranking 25th (127.2 YPG), so Taylor will have his work cut out. They also were 15th in the country with 18.2 PPG. On offense, Miami was just 92nd overall in total yards (374.6 YPG) and 109th in passing yards (177.2 YPG).

-- The Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS over the past seven games overall, while going 1-6 ATS across the past seven bowl appearances. They're also just 1-6 ATS in their past seven tries against teams with a winning overall record and 1-8 ATS in the past nine neutral-site affairs.

-- The Badgers are 1-4 ATS over their past five outings, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. They're also 3-8 ATS in the past 11 neutral-site battles.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four of Miami's past five bowl games, while going 5-0 in their past five against teams with a winning record. They're also 5-0-1 in the past six games overall, and 6-1 in their past seven games on a neutral-site field.

-- The under has hit in four of the past five for Wisconsin, while also going 4-1 in their past five neutral-site affairs.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Vanderbilt vs. Baylor**

Texas Bowl History

-- The Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl takes place at NRG Stadium in Houston, so the Baylor Bears (6-6 straight-up, 5-6-1 against the spread) of the Big 12 might have the advantage in terms of crowd support. They'll take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6 straight up, 8-4 against the spread).

-- Baylor is searching for its first-ever three-game win streak in bowl games. They took care of Boise State at the 2016 Cactus Bowl in their most recent postseason appearance, 31-12. They're 4-2 SU over the past six bowl apperances. The Bears made one other appearance in the Texas Bowl back on 2010, but they were hammered 38-14 by Illinois in the first bowl under Art Briles.

-- Vanderbilt does not have an extensive bowl history, but they're a respectable 4-3-1 SU in their eight postseason appearances. They lost their last bowl game in 2016, falling 41-17 to N.C. State in the Independence Bowl. This is their first-ever appearance in the Texas Bowl.

-- The Bears won their first two games against Abilene Christian and Texas-San Antonio, and the over finished in both of those games and five of their first six overall. They fell against Duke for the second straight season, and were doubled up at Oklahoma 66-33 on Sept. 29. They lost four of five games from Oct. 13 to Nov. 17, although the four losses came against bowl teams. The lone win was a 35-31 victory against Oklahoma State as six-point 'dogs. They wrapped up bowl eligibility with a 35-24 win at Texas Tech on Nov. 24.

-- The Commodores opened with wins over Middle Tennessee and Nevada, but they suffered their first loss 22-17 at Notre Dame on Sept. 15. The 'Dores sat 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS after a loss at Kentucky on Oct. 20. However, the Commodores racked up a 36-29 overtime win against Ole Miss and a rare win over Tennessee, 38-13, to close out the season with bowl eligibility.

-- Baylor's offense was solid this season, as they posted 441.7 YPG to rank 34th in the country, and 22nd in passing yard per game (282.2 YPG). Their weak point was rushing the ball, posting just 159.5 YPG to finish 81st. Defensively the Bears were very subpar, ranking 77th in total yards (412.6 YPG) allowed, 79th in passing yards (237.6 YPG) allowed and 79th in rushing yards (175.0 YPG) allowed.

-- Baylor backup RB JaMycal Hasty (knee) is listed as questionable due to a knee. He ran for 376 yards (5.1 YPC) with three scores, while leading WR Jalen Hurd (knee), who posted 69 grabs, 946 yards and four touchdowns, is ruled out with a knee.

-- Vandy ranked 69th in total yards per game (397.8 YPG) while ending up 56th in the country in passing yards (240.2 YPG) They were also so-so in points scored, ranking 76th in the nation with 27.7 PPG. On defense, they ranked 83rd in total yards allowed (419.8 YPG) while finishing 88th against the run (187.2 YPG). The Commodores were able to be a bend-don't-break defense, giving up 25.1 PPG to finish 48th in the country.

-- Vanderbilt RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn (arm), the team's leading rusher, is listed as questionable with an arm injury. He was the team's most explosive offensive option with 1,001 rushing yards (7.0 YPC) and 10 scores on the ground while adding two more TDs through the air.

-- The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games played in the month of December, but 0-5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference games while going 4-11-1 ATS in the past 16 following a straight-up win.

-- The Commodores have covered five in a row while going 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference battles. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances on a fieldturf.

-- The under has cashed in four in a row for Baylor while going 7-1 in the past eight in the month of December. The over is 20-8 in their past 28 non-conference battles, however, and 10-4 in the past 14 neutral-site contests.

-- The over has hit in four straight bowl games for Vandy. However, the under is 4-1 in the past five overall, 7-1 in the past eight non-conference games and 8-3 across the past 11 fieldturf battles.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between Baylor and Vandy on the gridiron.

-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

NCAAF

Long Sheet

DUKE (7 - 5) vs. TEMPLE (8 - 4) - 12/27/2018, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (7 - 5) vs. WISCONSIN (7 - 5) - 12/27/2018, 5:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VANDERBILT (6 - 6) vs. BAYLOR (6 - 6) - 12/27/2018, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report

Temple Owls
Temple is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Temple is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Temple's last 6 games
Duke Blue Devils
Duke is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Duke is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
Duke is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Duke's last 23 game

Miami-FL Hurricanes
Miami-FL is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami-FL is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Miami-FL is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 5 games
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games

Baylor Bears
Baylor is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Baylor is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baylor's last 6 games
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 5 games
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Temple Owls vs Duke Blue Devils Preview and Predictions Picks

Scores and Stats Logo

Scheduled Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans

WALK-ON'S INDEPENDENCE BOWL STORYLINES

1. Teams that ended the regular season in different fashions square off Dec. 27 in Shreveport, La., as Temple takes on Duke in the Walk-on's Independence Bowl. The Owls won six of their final seven games, capped by a resounding 57-7 triumph over Connecticut in the regular-season finale to reach a bowl game for the fourth straight year. The Blue Devils lost their final two games by a combined 94-13 and obviously need to be better if they're going to win a bowl game for the third time in four seasons.

2. Temple's hot finish paved the way for coach Geoff Collins to depart the Philadelphia school for a job as Georgia Tech's coach. "I know (Collins) is from Georgia and figured it was his dream job," tight end Kenny Yeboah said via Philly.com. "You can't really hate him for it. It (stinks), but it is part of life." The Owls' last four coaches have landed Power 5 coaching jobs, which is good news for Manny Diaz - currently the defensive coordinator at Miami - who has reportedly agreed to become the Owls' next coach.

3. After going 4-8 in 2016, Duke improved to 7-6 last season and now has a chance to win its third straight bowl game. "We've turned the program around," Duke senior wide receiver Johnathan Lloyd said. "That's not what we expect. We don't expect to lose three in a row. We definitely have to win (in order) to turn it around, to fix it." Prior to stumbling down the stretch, Duke had posted wins over bowl teams such as Army, Northwestern, Baylor, Georgia Tech and Miami.

TV: 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Temple -3.5

ABOUT TEMPLE (8-4, 7-1 American Athletic Conference): Ed Foley will be the interim coach for the Owls, who have scored at least 24 points in every game since their season-opening loss to FCS squad Villanova. Anthony Russo (2,335 yards, 13 touchdowns, 13 interceptions) took over as the starter in late September and spearheaded the 6-1 finish to the season, and will be ready for the bowl game after missing the UConn contest with an undisclosed injury. Russo will once again rely on Ryquell Armstead (1,098 rushing yards), who has recorded all 13 of his rushing TDs in his last seven games.

ABOUT DUKE (7-5, 3-5 ACC): Junior quarterback Daniel Jones has received some interest from NFL scouts, but enters the bowl season having passed for fewer than 160 yards in three of the last four games. Sophomore running back Deon Jackson has seen his rushing yards dwindle gradually, from 162 in a shootout loss versus Pittsburgh to 113 the next week, then to 78, 51 and 30 yards in the regular-season finale against Wake Forest. Among Duke's biggest weaknesses on the other side of the ball is a rush defense that allows 222.3 yards per game on average - 116th in the nation out of 130 teams.

PREDICTION: Temple 34, Duke 31

Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers Preview and Predictions Picks

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL STORYLINES

1. The 2018 campaign did not go as anyone at Miami or Wisconsin expected as the schools came into this season with top 10 rankings and national title dreams after impressive campaigns a year ago that ended with a Badgers win over the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl. But rather than competing for conference championships and spots in the College Football Playoff, the teams instead endured roller-coaster campaigns and finished with identical 7-5 records and a surprising bowl rematch, this time in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl in New York's Yankee Stadium on Dec. 27. It's Wisconsin's 17th straight season ending with a bowl bid, the longest streak by a Big Ten school and the fourth longest in the country, while it's the sixth in a row for the Hurricanes, who are just 1-7 in their last eight bowl games and 1-1 under head coach Mark Richt, including a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin last year.

2. The Hurricanes will most certainly try to avenge that Orange Bowl loss, a game they once led 14-3 before the Badgers stormed back with 21 unanswered points, but the rematch hardly has nearly the same draw as that thriller in Miami. And while Badgers fans have shown their willingness to travel -- they negated some of Miami's expected homefield advantage at Hard Rock Stadium in the Orange Bowl -- and are certainly accustomed to the cold, there's some question about whether the Hurricanes faithful will make the trek to a cold-weather city, although it will give Miami's large alumni base from the Northeast a chance to see their team in person. "That northeast corridor, I think we'll have a lot of people that will be excited to have us up there and they'll come out," Hurricanes athletic director Blake James told the Sun Sentinel. "I think our alumni and fan base really will be excited to be there and what's not to be excited about? It'll be a great game against a great institution and football program and one hosted by a world-class organization."

3. Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook lit up a tough Hurricanes defense in last year's Orange Bowl, earning MVP honors with 258 yards passing and four touchdowns with no interceptions, but he has not had a season to remember and is coming off a dismal three-interception showing in the season-ending loss to Minnesota - Wisconsin's first loss to the Golden Gophers in 15 years. Miami, too, has had less-than-adequate production from the quarterback spot with redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry (51.6 percent completion) and senior Malik Rosier (53.5) struggling to make good decisions and create plays for a sputtering Hurricanes offense. No surprise, then, that both schools will come in relying heavily on their running games, with Wisconsin proving especially dominant on the ground this season, leaping to seventh best in the nation (268.4 ypg) from 23rd (222.9) a year ago.

LINE: Miami -2.5

WISCONSIN (7-5, 5-4 Big Ten): On the heels of a huge freshman campaign, running back Jonathan Taylor upped his game even further and became the fourth Badger to win the Doak Walker Award, given annually to the nation's top running back, joining Ron Dayne (1999), Montee Ball (2012) and Melvin Gordon (2014). He is almost certain to get the 11 rushing yards needed to hit the 2,000-yard barrier for the season as he is averaging a nation-best 165.8 yards rushing per game, but the yardage doesn't figure to come easy against a Miami defense that boasts one of the top defensive lines and will be primed to stop him, especially if an inconsistent Hornibrook (13 TDs, 11 INTs) can't get the job done through the air. The Badgers defense had its moments but was far from the same dominant unit of a year ago, surrendering 81 points total in the last two games while allowing Minnesota to rush for 201 yards in the season finale, a weakness the Hurricanes will try to exploit.

MIAMI (7-5, 4-4 ACC): Led by All-America defensive lineman Gerald Willis, the backbone of the Hurricanes is a defense that was fast, hungry and opportunistic under coordinator Manny Diaz, who is leaving after the season to take over as Temple's head coach, ranking No. 1 in the nation in a number of categories, including passing yards allowed per game (140.8), third-down conversion percentage (23.7) and tackles for loss (10.5 per game). The Hurricanes had some ugly outings offensively, at one point scoring a total of 60 points during an 0-4 skid as they couldn't find an answer at quarterback, shuffling back and forth between Rosier and Perry. While Perry eventually gained the trust of his coaches and led the Hurricanes to two victories to close the regular season, Miami remains far more of a running team with Travis Homer (969 yards) and Deejay Dallas (609) providing a strong one-two punch and they expect to have their chances against a Badgers defense that isn't as physical up front as it was a year ago.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 24, Miami 20

Baylor Bears vs Vanderbilt Commodores Preview and Predictions Picks

Scheduled NRG Stadium Houston

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Baylor's big turnaround has landed them in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl to face Vanderbilt at Houston's NRG Stadium on Dec. 27. The Bears followed a one-win season in Matt Rhule's first year with a 6-6 record and a trip to a bowl game. Rhule's Temple team beat Vanderbilt 37-7 in the 2014 opener, which was coach Derek Mason's first game with the Commodores.

2. Vanderbilt junior running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn (1,001 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 144 carries) averaged an SEC-best 6.95 yards per carry and led SEC backs with seven runs of 40 or more yards. Vaughn, who also averaged 13.1 yards per catch, will be a big test for a Baylor team that has allowed 172.8 rushing yards per game. The Bears will also try to establish a ground attack after averaging 208.5 rushing yards in their six wins - 98 yards better than in their six losses.

3. The Bears will be without receiver Jalen Hurd, who played through a knee injury in the regular-season finale to help the Bears beat Texas Tech and become bowl eligible. Hurd, named the B ig 12's offensive newcomer of the year after recording 69 receptions for 946 yards and four touchdowns, had a procedure on Dec. 4. Hurd, who converted from running back to receiver after transferring from Tennessee, hopes to be healthy enough to play in the Senior Bowl in late January.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Vanderbilt -3.5

ABOUT BAYLOR (6-6, 4-5 Big 12): The Bears will need to focus on protecting sophomore quarterback Charlie Brewer (2,635 yards, 17 passing touchdowns, six rushing touchdowns) and the ball after having a Big 12-worst minus-9 turnover margin and allowing a conference-high 37 sacks. Sophomore running back John Lovett (546 yards, five touchdowns) is coming off a career-high 126 rushing yards in the regular-season finale and junior receiver Denzel Mims (49 catches, 699 yards, team-high eight touchdowns) will try to replace some of Hurd's production. The Bears lead the country with seven blocked kicks, getting three from sophomore end BJ Thompson (two extra points, punt) and two from senior end Greg Roberts (two field goals).

ABOUT VANDERBILT (6-6, 3-5 SEC): Senior quarterback Kyle Shurmur (2,844 yards, 23 passing touchdowns) finished the regular season on a roll - completing 73.2 percent of his passes for 999 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception over the final four games - and needs 119 passing yards, seven completions and 16 attempts to pass Jay Cutler's Vanderbilt career records. Shurmur, who already has the career record with 63 touchdown passes, threw 16 of his TDs to junior receiver Kalija Lipscomb (81 catches, 886 yards) and junior tight end Jared Pinkney (45 catches, 698 yards). Junior cornerback Joejuan Williams had four of the team's 12 interceptions as Vanderbilt finished the regular season plus-8 in turnover margin.

PREDICTION: Vanderbilt 30, Baylor 27