Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 12/18/18
Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, FL
UAB didn’t field a football team in 2015-16; they went 8-5 LY, lost their bowl game 41-6, then went 10-3 this year, winning C-USA title Dec 1. All three Blazer losses are by 21+ points. Northern Illinois is 8-5 after winning MAC title 30-29 over Buffalo Nov 30; Huskies lost their last five bowls, last three by 22+ points each. NIU is 7-0 when it scores 24+ points, 1-5 when they don’t; in their last four games (2-2) they were -7 in turnovers. Huskies have a top 10 OL in experience. Favorites covered three of first four Boca Raton Bowls, with average total of 64.8; C-USA teams are 3-0 in this game. Last two years, C-USA teams are 7-5 vs spread when playing MAC teams. Under is 9-4 in NIU games this season; four of last five UAB games went over.
Boca Raton Bowl Preview
December 15, 2018
By Joe Williams
**Northern Illinois vs. UAB**
Boca Raton Bowl History
-- The champions of the Mid-American Conference (MAC), the Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) meet the champions of Conference USA, the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers (10-3 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) in the fifth all-time installment of the Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl. The Boca Bowl is just one of three bowl games to feature two outright conference champions.
-- The Huskies played in the inaugural Boca Bowl game back on Dec. 23, 2014, falling 52-23 to Marshall in front of 29,419 fans. They'll be looking to snap a five-game bowl losing skid since their last victory in the postseason back in 2011 when they pushed aside Arkansas State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. The Huskies have managed a 4-8 SU mark in 12 all-time bowl games.
-- The Blazers have rebounded rather nicely after killing their football program after the 2014 season. The program was resurrected in 2017, and they have been bowl eligible in each of the past two seasons under Bill Clark. UAB was waxed by Ohio U in the Bahamas Bowl last season, 41-6, and they're 0-2 SU/ATS in two all-time bowl appearances.
-- NIU opened the season taking it on the chin in each of their first two games, losing at Iowa and at home against Utah in a soaking rain. They also faced a Power 5 Conference team at Florida State, falling Sept. 22 in Tallahassee by a 37-19 score. After opening 1-3 SU/ATS, they entered conference play with a bang. The Huskies won six straight games in MAC play, starting with an overtime win at Eastern Michigan, also a bowl team, back on Sept. 29. They went 5-1 ATS during the impressive span to get bowl eligible. They had a hiccup against Miami-Ohio at home on Nov. 14 and at Western Michigan on Nov. 21, but they had still done enough to get into the MAC title game. They rallied to top a 10-win Buffalo team in the championship game.
-- UAB fired out of the chute with eight wins in their first nine games, including an impressive 8-1 ATS durng the span. The only stumble was a 47-24 loss at Coastal Carolina on Sept. 8. It was defense which really helped the Blazers this season, as they pitched three shutouts, while allowing seven or fewer points in six of their 13 contests. They were outclassed 41-20 at Texas A&M on Nov. 17, while slipping up 27-3 at Middle Tennessee on Nov. 24. However, in a rematch with the Blue Raiders in the C-USA title game in Murfreesboro they pushed aside Middle Tennessee 27-25 to win their first-ever conference championship.
-- NIU really struggled offensively this season, ranking 123rd in the nation in total yardage (325.0 yards per game) while checking in just 120th in the pass department with 153.5 yards per contest. Their bread is buttered in the run game, putting up 171.5 yards per contest to rank 61st in the nation. The Huskies rank 31st in the nation with 347.8 yards per game allowed, and they're especially hard on the opponent's road game, allowing just 109.7 yards per game to rank 14th. They also allowed just 21.5 PPG to finish 26th in the country.
-- UAB also wasn't terribly impressive on the road, posting 400.4 yards per game to finish 67th in the nation. They posted 191.5 yards per game through the air to finish 100th in the FBS, and they also like to run the football more. The Blazers posted 208.9 yards per game on the ground to rank 29th overall. On defense, UAB ranked 11th in the land with just 300.2 yards per game allowed, and they were 16th in passing yards allowed (181.2), 20th in rushing yards allowed (119.0) and 10th in points allowed (17.3 PPG).
-- QB Marcus Childers was so-so under center, passing for 1,996 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while running for 496 yards and six scores. RB Tre Harbison ran for 985 yards and four touchdowns, and Marcus Johnson was a nice change-of-pace back with 523 yards and four scores. In the pass game, the trio of WRs Jauan Wesley (49-585-2), D.J. Brown (55-484-5) and Spencer Tears (34-372-4) are the ones to watch.
-- When UAB has the ball, RB Spener Brown is the one to watch. He ran 248 times for 1,152 yards (4.6 yards per game) with 16 touchdowns. QB A.J. Erdely (shoulder) is questionable for Tuesday's game. He threw for 1,539 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions while rushing for 257 yards and five scores. If he cannot go it will be QB Tyler Johnston III, who filled in with 950 yards, seven touchdows and four rushing scores. Both are likely to play even if Erdely is active.
-- UAB enters this bowl 8-3 ATS over the past 11 games overall, and they're also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 against winning teams. They have failed to cover their past four outings on a grass surface, however.
-- NIU heads in with an 0-5 ATS mark over the past five bowl appearances, and they're 1-5 ATS in the past six against the Conference USA. They're also just 5-16-1 ATS in the past 22 neutral-site battles, and 5-13 ATS in the past 18 on a grass surface. However, they have covered in four of the past five against winning teams.
-- The over is 4-1 in UAB's past five overall, and 8-3 in their past 11 on a grass surface. The under is 7-2 in their past nine against winning teams, however.
-- The under is 9-4 in UAB's past 13 overall, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 non-conference tilts. However, the over is 5-2 in the past seven neutral-site battles while hitting in four of their past five played in the month of December.
-- Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
UAB Blazers vs. Northern Illinois Huskies Preview and Predictions 2018-12-18
CHERIBUNDI BOCA RATON BOWL STORYLINES
1. A pair of conference champions who barely survived title games square off when Conference USA champion UAB takes on Northern Illinois of the Mid American Conference in the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 18 at FAU Stadium. UAB, which shut down its football program for two years starting in 2015, set a school record for wins with 10, including a 27-25 triumph over Middle Tennessee to qualify for its third-ever bowl appearance. Northern Illinois rallied from a 19-point, third-quarter deficit and defeated Buffalo 30-29 when Marcus Childers threw his fourth touchdown of the game 35 yards to D.J. Brown with 1:09 left to win its fifth conference title overall.
2. Blazers sophomore Spencer Brown ran for 156 yards and a touchdown in the title game and gained 1,149 yards for the season with a school-record 16 touchdowns - seventh most in FBS. The Alabama native has 2,481 yards in his two-year career - ninth most in FBS - and needs 340 yards to become UAB's all-time leading rusher. Huskies running back Tre Harbison gained 985 yards for an offense that averaged 171 yards per game and is followed by Marcus Jones (523 yards, 5.6 per carry) and Childers (496 yards, 6 TDs).
3. The game will pair elite defenses as Northern Illinois yields 21.5 points per game (26th in FBS) and 2.7 yards per carry while UAB ranks 10th in points allowed (17.3 per game) and total defense (300.2). The Huskies lead the country in sacks (50) and rank sixth in tackles for loss (8.0 per game) and defensive end Sutton Smith is tied for the national lead in both categories (15 sacks, 24 TFL). The Blazers rank fourth in sacks (43) and fifth in tackles for loss (8.1) while setting the league record with three shutouts.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: UAB -1.5
ABOUT UAB (10-3, 9-1 C-USA): Senior A.J. Erdely (56.1 percent completion rate, 1,539 yards, seven TDs, seven interceptions) is the starting quarterback but has played just once since late October due to shoulder problems. Backup Tyler Johnston III (56.8 percent, 950 yards, seven TDs, eight interceptions) threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to Texas A&M on Nov. 17 and was 9-of-15 for 140 yards with a TD in the conference title game. Defensive lineman Jamell Garcia-Williams led the team in both sacks (9.5) and tackles for loss (15.5), which ranked him third and sixth, respectively, in Conference USA, while linebacker Chris Woolbright was the team's leading tackler with 74 - 13.5 of which went for a loss.
ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (8-5, 6-2 MAC): Childers completed 21-of-33 passes for 300 yards with four TDs in the conference title game and also led the team with 58 yards rushing. Childers completed 57.6 percent of his passes for 1,996 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and his favorite receiver was Brown, who caught 55 passes for 484 yards and a team-high five touchdowns. Linebacker Antonio Jones-Davis led the team with 119 tackles and added four sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss.
PREDICTION: UAB 24, Northern Illinois 17
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NCAAF
Long Sheet
N ILLINOIS (8 - 5) vs. UAB (10 - 3) - 12/18/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
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NCAAF
Bowl Season
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Trend Report
NIU Huskies
Northern Illinois is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Northern Illinois is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Northern Illinois's last 13 games
UAB Blazers
Alabama-Birmingham is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Alabama-Birmingham is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 5 games
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