NCAAFB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Wednesday 11/14/18

Buffalo Bulls vs. Ohio Bobcats Preview and Predictions 11-14-2018

The Buffalo Bulls are clearly on their way to a berth in the Mid-American Conference title game, and this has been a tremendous turnaround in the program under head coach Lance Leipold. This is a complete team, which can move the ball through the air and on the ground, and they also play defense.

The Ohio Bobcats, however, are a pretty formidable foe; they are highly efficient on offense behind a genuine dual-threat quarterback and are well-coached by Frank Solich, who has been around the block and back in this assignment and others.

Ohio is still clinging to the hope of winning the MAC East title, but the door will be shut on that if they can't beat Buffalo in this Wednesday night game at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio.

TV: ESPN2, 7 PM ET. LINE: Ohio -2

ABOUT BUFFALO: The winds at UB Stadium were extremely challenging last week as Buffalo (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) put itself even more firmly into the driver's seat in the MAC East with a 48-14 victory. The weather precluded the teams from doing a whole lot through the air, but the Bulls rolled up 358 yards on the ground, and Jaret Patterson led the charge in a big way with 187 yards on 18 carries. This included touchdown runs of 64 and 21 yards, and this performance, which was complemented by Emmanuel Reed's 58 yards, demonstrated Buffalo's ability to run the ball if they need to. That will put this team in good stead in the MAC title chase, as will defense. They held an overmatched Kent State squad to just 183 yards, and they took a 46-0 lead into the fourth quarter. Under more agreeable conditions, of course, the 6-7 Tyree Jackson is the trigger man that makes this offense very dangerous. He's thrown 24 touchdown passes (with eight interceptions) and his offensive line has done such a great job, allowing just five sacks. Buffalo has a +9 turnover margin and ranks 11th in the nation in passing efficiency defense. Lance Leipold has once again gotten the job done. The six-time Division III national champion (at Wisconsin-Whitewater) got the Bulls bowl-eligible last season, his third at the helm, and now they are angling for their best record ever.

ABOUT OHIO: Frank Solich's team was really rolling with consecutive wins by margins of 49-14, 52-14 and 59-14 against Bowling Green, Ball State, and Western Michigan, respectively, but then they suffered a critical 30-28 defeat at Miami of Ohio that put them behind the eight-ball. They simply got off to a horrible start, falling behind 28-7 at the intermission. And their big comeback in the second half, during which they held Miami to a safety, fell just short. The fact is, the safety constituted the difference in the game, and Miami was able to end a five-game losing streak in the "Battle of the Bricks." Nathan Rourke had 163 yards and threw two TD passes in the second half, while AJ Oullette ran for 168 yards. Rourke had the Bobcats in position for a Hail Mary at the end, but there was no miracle to be had. This puts Ohio (6-4 SU & ATS) in a position where in order to get to the MAC title game, it has to beat Buffalo and Akron in these last two games, then hope that Buffalo loses to Bowling Green. The strength of Rourke is that he can contribute equally well with his arm or his feet; even though he was limited to just 16 net yards against Miami, he has 653 yards on the ground to go with 1927 through the air, and his ratio of 19 TD passes to five interceptions is excellent. The Bobcats are 12th in the nation in scoring (39.3 ppg), and like Buffalo they have a +9 turnover margin, a by-product of the 24 takeaways they've had. But they are just inside the nation's top 100 in passing efficiency defense, so there is a reasonable chance they could be sitting ducks for the Buffalo air attack led by Jackson - weather permitting, of course.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Lance Leipold holds the distinction of getting to 100 wins faster than any other NCAA coach. That happened in 2014, as he was on his way to a 109-6 record as coach at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater.

2. The home team has won each of the last eight games these teams have played against each other. Ohio holds the overall edge in the series by a 14-10 margin.

3. Interestingly, 22 of the 46 touchdowns Buffalo has scored this season have been tallied by freshmen.

PREDICTION: Buffalo 33, Ohio 28
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Miami of Ohio Redhawks vs. Northern Illinois Huskies Preview and Predictions 11-14-2018

The Miami of Ohio Redhawks can't go to the Mid-American Conference title game, because they suffered a loss to East division leader Buffalo. But they now get a chance to cause some anxiety for the West division leader as they take on the Northern Illinois Huskies on Wednesday night before a national television audience.

Miami pulled a mild upset at home against Ohio, but they almost blew a 21-point lead in the process. With their veteran offensive line and a pretty balanced offense, they can be dangerous for many MAC foes.

But battle-tested NIU has made it difficult for a lot of opponents to score on them, and they are undefeated in league play.

This one takes place at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, IL, with the newly-established Mallory Cup at stake.

TV: ESPNU, 8 PM ET. LINE: Northern Illinois -6

ABOUT MIAMI OF OHIO: They looked like they could be cruising to victory, with a 28-7 lead at halftime against Ohio. But the RedHawks (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) almost blew that lead, barely hanging on for a 30-28 win that kept their hopes for bowl eligibility alive. Miami's offense did not put a point on the board in the second half. They gave up two TD passes to Ohio's Nathan Rourke, had a punt blocked and returned for a TD, and were only able to create a difference when Rourke was sacked for a safety, after a great "coffin corner" punt by Kyle Kramer, who wound up winning MAC East Special Teams Player of the Week. Gus Ragland went 20-32 for 199 yards and a touchdown, while Alonzo Smith had 94 yards and two TD's on the ground. Miami needs to beat Northern Illinois and Ball State to become bowl eligible for head coach Chuck Martin, who at the post-game press conference sounded off on home fans who he thought abandoned his team, saying "There’s a ton of panic because you can hear our fans stinking, our home fans yelling at us as the game’s unraveling. I mean, welcome to Miami! " He also commented on what he referred to as the "cheapness" of the MAC schools, since there was no trophy for the winner of the "Battle of the Bricks." Ragland has thrown 18 touchdown passes with just four interceptions, and the RedHawks have committed just nine turnovers overall, which puts them ninth in the nation in that category.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Operating on all cylinders, NIU (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) routed Toledo by a 38-15 count last week. Two running backs topped the 100-yard mark (Tre Harbison 139, Marcus Jones 103), and quarterback Marcus Childers scored twice on the ground and had 131 yards passing. All-American defensive end Sutton Smith also returned a blocked punt for a touchdown. That was the highest point total for Northern Illinois this season. Smith has won MAC West Defensive Player of the Week honors twice this season, but this time he's been named Special Teams Player of the Week. Harbison, who has 804 rushing yards on 5.5 yards a carry, was MAC West Offensive Player of the Week. Defenses that can force Childers to the air will have better success; he is averaging a microscopic 4.9 yards per attempt. The Huskies are ranked only 123rd in offensive yardage per game. NIU is 82nd in the FBS ranks in the category of "Yards per Point," at 15.1, although they have been making strides, as that number has been only 13.8 over the last three games. On the stop unit they excel, leading the nation with 38 sacks and holding opponents to just 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. The situation for the Huskies is this - if they can win either of these last two games (the next one is against Western Michigan), they will clinch the MAC West title and a berth in the conference championship game.

EXTRA POINTS

1. For the first time, this game is played for the Mallory Cup, named in honor of coach Bill Mallory, who led both of these schools to MAC championships and passed away this past May.

2. Northern Illinois has won seven of the last eight meetings, losing only the 2010 MAC title game during that time.

3. NIU's Sutton Smith has filled up the stat sheet on defense, ranking seventh in the nation in sacks, fourth in forced fumbles and 15th in Tackles for Loss.

PREDICTION: Northern Illinois 28, Miami of Ohio 17
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Home side won last eight Buffalo-Ohio games; Bulls lost their last four visits to Athens (1-3 vs spread). Buffalo is 9-1 with its only loss to Army; they won last five games, scoring 51-48 points in last two games- they’re 4-0 SU on road, 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as road underdogs, 2-0 this year. Ohio won three of last four games but was upset 30-28 by Miami OH last week; Bobcats covered seven of their last eight games as home favorites, are 3-0 in that role this year. Over is 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games, under is 4-2 in last six Ohio games.

Miami/Northern Illinois are playing for just third time in last eight years; Huskies won last two meetings, 45-12/51-41, with last meeting three years ago. RedHawks are 2-3 SU on road this year; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six games as road underdogs. Miami is 1-6 when they run ball for less than 200 yards. NIU won its last six games after a 1-3 start; Huskies are 3-5 vs spread in last eight games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year. Iowa is only team to run ball for more than 164 yards vs NIU. Over is 5-2 in last seven Miami games, under is 8-2 NIU games this season.

By Brian Edwards

Bettors have more mid-week MACtion on tap with Wednesday’s doubleheader. Let's break down both contests before exploring some national topics in Bonus Nuggets below.

**Buffalo at Ohio**

-- As of early this morning, most betting shops had Ohio (6-4 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) installed as a two-point home favorite with a total of 66. The Bulls were +110 on the money line (risk $100 to win $110).

-- Ohio is undefeated in four home games with a 3-1 spread record. Frank Solich’s 14th team in Athens saw its three-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 30-28 loss at Miami (OH.) as a 4.5-point road favorite. The 58 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 59-point total. After scoring on Maleek Irons’ three-yard TD run to draw first blood last Tuesday in Athens, the RedHawks scored 28 unanswered points to take a 21-point lead into intermission. Ohio would rally, however, trimming the deficit to 14 on Nathan Rourke’s nine-yard TD pass to Papi White with 2:32 left in the third quarter. Then with 9:14 remaining, the Bobcats blocked a punt that was scooped up by Dylan Connor and returned 28 yards for a score. Ohio was buried deep at its own 1-yard line and three players later, Miami’s Doug Costin sacked Rourke for a safety. The Bobcats would get the ball back and get to within 30-28 on Rourke’s 18-yard scoring strike Andrew Meyer. After a stop, Ohio got to Miami’s 45 but Rourke’s Hail Mary on the games final play was unanswered.

-- Ohio’s stretch of four consecutive covers also came to an end. Even worse, the Bobcats’ MAC record fell to 4-2 to leave it two games back of Buffalo in the East. They’ll need to win back-to-back contests to close the regular season and hope Bowling Green can upset Buffalo next week.

-- Rourke completed 16-of-27 passes for 163 yards and two TDs without an interception in the loss at Miami. A.J. Ouellette had 168 rushing yards on 15 attempts, while White had five receptions for 44 yards and one TD. Ouellette had three catches for 29 yards.

-- Rourke, the junior QB who was a second-team All-MAC selection in 2017, has the MAC’s highest QB Rating (163.66). He has completed 62.3 percent of his throws for 1,932 yards with a 19/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rourke has also rushed for 653 yards and eight TDs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

-- Ouellette is third in the MAC in rushing yards (777), fourth in TD runs (eight) and ninth in YPC average (5.4). Irons has run for 613 yards and seven TDs with a 6.4 YPC average. He has five catches for 34 yards and one TD, while Ouellette has 16 receptions for 146 yards and one TD.

-- Ohio is ranked 12th in the nation in scoring (39.3 points per game), 19th in rushing yards and 29th in total offense.

-- Buffalo (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) is a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS in four road assignments this season. The Bulls are on a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS since suffering their only loss of the year in a 42-13 setback vs. Army as a 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’ They’ve won four of the five games by 14 points or more and all five by at least seven points. They’re off last Tuesday’s 48-14 win over Kent St. as 17-point home favorites. Buffalo darted out to a 21-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, led 34-0 at intermission and 48-0 going into the final stanza. The Golden Flashes got a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to avoid taking cream-cheese treatment and make the score look a tad more respectable. True freshman RB Jaret Patterson stole the show by turning 18 carries into 187 rushing yards and two TDs. QB Tyree Jackson threw for 111 yards and one TD without an interception, in addition to rushing for a score.

-- Buffalo can clinch the MAC’s Eastern Division with a win in this spot. Even if the Bulls come up short, they’ll still go to the MAC Championship Game if they can win at Bowling Green next week.

-- Buffalo is led by Jackson, the 6’7” junior signal caller who has completed 56.1 percent of his passes for 2,338 yards with a 24/8 TD-INT ratio. Jackson also has 95 rushing yards and six TDs. He has two prime targets in K.J. Osborn and Anthony Johnson. Osborn has 45 catches for 761 yards and six TDs, while Johnson has 35 receptions for 699 yards and nine TDs.

-- Patterson has rushed for a team-best 728 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC. Kevin Marks has 616 rushing yards for eight scores with a 5.0 YPC.

-- Although Lance Leipold’s squad lost at home to Army, Buffalo did post non-conference wins at Temple (36-29) and at Rutgers (42-13).

-- Buffalo has been a road underdog on Leipold’s watch 18 times during his four-year tenure, producing a 7-8-1 spread record. However, the Bulls are 2-0 ATS in a pair of such spots this year and 5-1-1 in their past seven games as road ‘dogs.

-- When these schools collided at UB Stadium last year on Nov. 24, Buffalo captured a 31-24 win as a 6.5-point home underdog. The 55 combined points hit right on the total for a push. Jackson led the Bulls by throwing for 294 yards and two TDs without an interception. Emmanuel Reed’s one-yard TD run untied the game and provided the winning points with 8:10 remaining. Johnson had six receptions for 155 yards and two TDs. Rourke completed 15-of-30 passes for 265 yards with one TD and one interception. The Ohio QB rushed for 49 yards and two TDs on 16 attempts.

-- The home team has won eight games in a row in this rivalry and has covered the number in five straight encounters.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back Buffalo games to improve to 7-3 overall and 3-1 in its road contests. The Bulls have watched their games average combined scores of 58.7 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-4-1 overall for the Bobcats, 2-1-1 in their home outings. They’ve seen their games average combined scores 66.8 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois**

-- As of early this morning, most books had Northern Illinois (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 48. The RedHawks were +200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $200).

-- NIU clinched the MAC West to garner a spot in the conference’s championship game with last week’s 38-15 win over Toledo as a 3.5-point home favorite. Since losing 37-10 at FSU on Sept. 22, the Huskies have won six games in a row while compiling a 5-1 spread record in the process. They’re 6-0 in MAC play and won a 7-6 decision at BYU last month. NIU took its two other L’s at Iowa (33-7) and vs. Utah (17-6).

-- Rod Carey’s club has won three of its four home games while going 2-2 ATS. The Huskies covered the spread in their only home loss to the Utes, who needed a pick-six late in the fourth quarter to put the game on ice. Nevertheless, NIU still took the money as a 12.5-point home ‘dog. The Huskies are 1-2 ATS as home favorites this year, 12-15 ATS in 27 such spots since Carey took over in 2013.

-- Sophomore QB Marcus Childers has connected on 57.4 percent of his passes for 1,383 yards with a 10/6 TD-INT ratio. He’s run for 328 yards and five TDs. Tre Harbison paces NIU in rushing with 804 yards and four TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. Marcus Jones has 478 rushing yards, three rushing scores and a 5.8 YPC average.

-- Childers has a pair of primary targets in Jauan Wesley and D.J. Brown. Wesley has 42 receptions for 473 yards and two TDs, while Brown has caught 41 balls for 351 yards and three TDs. Brown also has 81 rushing yards and one TD on 14 carries for a 5.8 YPC average.

-- Miami (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) is hoping to win its next two games to get bowl eligible for the second time in three years. As previously noted, the RedHawks won a tight 30-28 decision over Ohio last week as home underdogs. Gus Ragland connected on 20-of-32 passes for 199 yards and one TD without a pick against the Bobcats. Alonzo Smith ran for 94 yards and two TDs on 29 attempts, while Kenny Young turned 15 touches into 105 all-purpose yards and one TD.

-- Miami has lost three of its five road games outright, but it has gone 3-2 versus the number. The RedHawks are 2-2 ATS in four games as road underdogs this year, 15-9 ATS in 24 such instances during Chuck Martin’s five-year tenure.

-- Ragland, the senior QB, has enjoyed an outstanding career. He has started 26 games and posted a 55/11 TD-INT. Ragland has 864 career rushing yards and 12 TDs. In Miami’s past four games, Ragland has thrown seven TD passes without being picked off. After the RedHawks started 0-3, Ragland has led his team to a 6-1 spread record while throwing 13 TD passes compared to merely one interception. His senior could’ve been better if not for the season-ending loss of senior WR James Gardner, who was a third-team All-MAC selection in 2016 and a first-team All-MAC choice last season. Gardner went down in a 26-3 loss at Minnesota in Week 3. He had 12 receptions for 157 yards at that point.

-- Smith has rushed for 499 yards and six TD with a 4.8 YPC average. Young has 296 rushing yards and four TDs while averaging 6.6 YPC. Ragland has run for 196 yards and five TDs.

-- Jack Sorenson has a team-best 43 receptions for 629 yards and two TDs, and Young has caught 41 balls for 365 yards and four TDs.

-- Miami will be without three starters on defense, including senior NT Nate Trawick, senior LB Junior McMullen and senior DB De’Andre Montgomery. Another senior starter, Deondre Daniels, has missed five consecutive games and is ‘questionable’ at NIU.

-- Miami has lost three one-possession games, including a 40-39 home loss to Western Michigan and a 31-30 overtime loss at Army.

-- NIU has been victorious in seven of the past eight head-to-head meetings between these MAC adversaries, but the RedHawks have covered the spread at a 5-1 ATS clip in the last six encounters. They were double-digit underdogs in each of those instances. Miami’s five straight covers ended last year when NIU won by a 45-12 count in Oxford as a 17.5-point road ‘chalk.’ -- The ‘under’ is 8-2 overall for the Huskies, 4-0 in its home games. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 42.1 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for Miami, 4-1 in its five road assignments. The RedHawks have seen their contests average combined scores of 56.0 PPG.

-- ESPNU will have the broadcast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Duke’s second-leading tackler Dylan Singleton underwent season-ending ankle surgery this past Sunday after sustaining a fracture in last week’s 42-35 home win over UNC. The Blue Devils, who are big underdogs Saturday at Clemson, have won outright in all four of their games as road ‘dogs this year. They’ve won at Northwestern, at Baylor, at Georgia Tech and at Miami.

-- Maryland QB Kasim Hill (9/4 TD-INT) tore his ACL last week for the second time in 14 months. He had started all 10 games for the Terrapins, who will turn to Tyrrell Pigrome as their starter when they host Ohio State.

-- According to a report from ABC’s affiliate in Boulder, fifth-year Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre will be fired at season’s end. The Buffaloes’ AD denied the report on Tuesday afternoon. There are already job openings at Bowling Green, Kansas, Louisville and Maryland. I think Alabama OC Mike Locksley will get the Maryland gig. I doubt Purdue’s Jeff Brohm would turn down his alma mater, Louisville, but he does have Purdue on the rise and a superstar in true freshman Rondale Moore to build around for at least two more seasons. If Brohm passes on the U of L gig, the school might go back after Charlie Strong at USF. Todd Graham and Les Miles have expressed interest in the KU job (talk about desperation mode!).

-- Virginia Tech junior DE Houshon Gaines will miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Gaines had recorded a team-high 4.5 sacks.

-- Georgia Tech has won five of its past six games both SU and ATS. The Yellow Jackets, who lost outright to their first three FBS foes and started 0-4 ATS, will welcome Virginia to The Flats in Midtown Atlanta on Saturday.

-- South Carolina senior LB Bryson Allen-Williams is out for the last three games of the regular season after undergoing ankle surgery. The Gamecocks are hopeful that he might be able to return for a bowl game.

NCAAF
Long Sheet
Wednesday, November 14

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BUFFALO (9 - 1) at OHIO U (6 - 4) - 11/14/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BUFFALO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI OHIO (4 - 6) at N ILLINOIS (7 - 3) - 11/14/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
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NCAAF

Week 12

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Trend Report

Wednesday, November 14

Buffalo @ Ohio
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Ohio
Ohio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ohio is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Miami-OH @ Northern Illinois
Miami-OH
Miami-OH is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami-OH is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Northern Illinois is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
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