NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 1

Betting Recap - Week 1
September 3, 2018
By Joe Williams

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Cincinnati (+14.5, ML +450) at UCLA, 26-17
Villanova (+14.5, ML +450) at Temple, 19-17
Hawaii (+13.5, ML +425) vs. Navy, 59-41
Maryland (+13, ML +400) vs. Texas, 34-29
North Carolina A&T (+13, ML +400) at East Carolina, 28-23
Brigham Young (+11, ML +320) at Arizona, 28-23

The largest favorites to cover
Toledo (-48.5) vs. Virginia Military, 66-3
Mississippi State (-47.5) vs. Stephen F. Austin, 63-6
Texas A&M (-46.5) vs. Northwestern State, 59-7
Florida (-43) vs. Charleston Southern, 53-6
Ohio State (-40) vs. Oregon State, 77-31

Top 25 Notes

-- Louisiana State certainly looked for real at Jerry World on Sunday, blasting Miami-Florida by a 33-17 score. It probably wasn't even that close, either. The total left 'under' (49) bettors crying foul, too. ... Top-ranked Alabama remains the gold standard in college football until further notice. They rolled up a 51-14 victory against Louisville as a 23 1/2-point favorite at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. The only drama in this game came down to whether or not the over or under would cash. See bad beats below. ... There were concerns that Ohio State might be a bit distracted due to the Urban Meyer suspension, but Oregon State knows the Buckeyes were plenty focused. Ohio State covered the largest spread of any FBS vs. FBS game, hammering the beleaguered Beavers by a 77-31 score. They ended up getting the cover late, yet another big-time program dealing out a bit of a bad beat in the opening weekend. ... On the 11-year anniversary of their colossal upset in Ann Arbor, Appalachian State was at it again at Penn State. They entered the game as 24 1/2-point underdogs, but the Mountaineers put a scare into the Top 10 Nittany Lions. App State scored 28 points in the final quarter to force overtime, 38-38. Penn State survived in OT, 45-38, but soon Big Ten clubs are going to refuse to take calls from Boone, N.C. about future scheduling.

-- Auburn-Washington looked like one of the best matchups of the opening slate on paper, and it certainly lived up to the billing. Sure, there were some mistakes on both sides, but this one came right down to the end. Auburn ended up securing a 21-16 victory, potentially damaging Washington's playoff hopes before their second game of the season, while the Tigers earned a huge feather for their cap.

-- Michigan-Notre Dame was another highly anticipated matchup, as these two storied schools renewed their rivalry. Jim Harbaugh has a new toy under center in QB Shea Patterson, but the Wolverines were tripped up 24-17 to lose for the 17th straight time on the road against a ranked opponent.

-- Two games were cancelled due to inclement weather, including the Akron-Nebraska. It was supposed to be the celebration of Scott Frost's return to Lincoln. His debut will have to wait another week until Colorado pays a visit next week. The other cancelled game was South Dakota State-Iowa State, the first cancelled game for the Cyclones since 1963 when John F. Kennedy was assassinated. There are no plans to make up either contest.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) mostly did what they were supposed to do, and that is win. That is, except for Louisville. North Carolina-California was also a bit of a coin-flip game, and the Golden Bears came away with the 24-17 result. UNC slipped to 0-4 SU over the past four season openers, and a disturbing 0-5-1 ATS across the past six season openers dating back to Sept. 1, 2012. ... Wake Forest grinded out a tough 23-17 win in overtime on the road against Tulane as the Green Wave narrowly covered a seven-point number at most shops. The Demon Deacons have been favored by three or more points just four times since the start of the 2010 season. The last time they covered as favorites by a field goal or more on the road was Nov. 28, 2009 at Duke.

-- Mid-American giant killer Northern Illinois entered the weekend 4-1 SU in their past five against Big Ten opponents. Iowa was wearing their upset bug repellent and never gave the Huskies a chance to threaten. It was a 3-0 lead at halftime for Iowa, so the thought was NIU could still make it happen. But the Hawkeyes pulled away in the second half for an emphatic 33-7 victory. ... Indiana hung on tight for a 38-28 road victory against Butch Davis and Florida International despite hot and humid conditions in South Florida. The Golden Panthers did grab the cover, however. ... Northwestern handed Purdue a loss in Thursday's game, 31-27. While the Wildcats won at Ross-Ade, the Boilermakers showed they're not going to be a pushover any longer.

-- Oklahoma was expected to receive a little more resistance from Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic on Saturday, but the Owls remain a cream puff rather than a giant killer like App State, NIU, etc. Boomer Sooner laid down the boom, rolling up a 56-0 lead at one point before the Owls finally lit up their side of the scoreboard. ... It looks like another long season is in the offing for Kansas, as they suffered a 26-23 setback against FCS Nicholls State. Hey, at least the Jayhawks forced them to overtime. ... Kansas State almost joined their rivals in misery, as FCS South Dakota gave the Wildcats all they could handle at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan. In the end, K-State survived 27-24, but they have a lot of work to do. ... West Virginia humbled Tennessee in a neutral-site battle, as QB Will Grier kept his Heisman campaign on schedule.

-- UCLA was unable to pull any comeback heroics like last season against Texas A&M. It was Cincinnati spoiling the debut of Chip Kelly, 26-17. ... Southern California was a bit sluggish in their home opener against UNLV, but the alarm clock went off to start the fourth quarter. The Runnin' Rebels trailed just 19-14 going into the final 15 minutes, but the Trojans outscored the visitors 24-7 and they nearly covered. ... Washington State-Wyoming was supposed to be more of a defensive struggle, at least for the visiting Cougars. The Cowboys have an impressive defense, and they shut down New Mexico State in Week Zero. The Cougs weren't having any of it, piling up 41 points in a 41-19 win. It wasn't as lopsided as it looks, though. Wazzu entered the final 15 minutes up just 20-19 before running away.

-- Ole Miss looked mighty impressive on the road at Texas Tech, winning 47-27 to easily cover a 2 1/2-point number. ... South Carolina was not a very kind host to Coastal Carolina, smashing the Chanticleers by a 49-15 count. The Gamecocks covered the 30 1/2-point number, their largest spread covered since winning 70-10 as 34 1/2-point favorites on Nov. 23, 2013 against, yep...Coastal Carolina. ... Vanderbilt was supposed to receiver a bigger test against South Middle Tennessee, as they were just a three-point favorite. The Commodores roughed up the Blue Raiders by a 35-7 count.

Mid-Major Report

-- Temple was shocked by FCS Villanova at home, losing 19-17. The Owls led 17-13 heading to the final quarter, but the Wildcats ended up celebrating in the end. For FBS teams nicknamed the Owls (FAU, Temple and Rice), they ended up 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. Only Rice earned a cover in their 45-27 loss against Houston. ... Memphis lost a lot of key components, but it didn't show in their 66-14 victory over FCS Mercer. The Tigers piled up 28 points in both the first and second quarter to build a 56-0 halftime lead before letting the reserves bring it home. ... SMU had their lunch handed to them by North Texas, 46-23. The two sides combined for 33 points in the fourth quarter, but came up just short of the total (71 1/2). ... Lightning pushed North Carolina A&T-East Carolina to a Sunday kick. The Pirates probably wished it was cancelled like the two games in the Midwest. The Aggies racked up a 28-23 win, dealing the Pirates their second straight loss in an opener to a FCS team in as many years.

-- Texas El-Paso entered their contest against FCS Northern Arizona as seven-point underdogs despite the fact the game was being played at home. Vegas got it right, and then some...as the Lumberjacks crushed their FBS opponent by a 30-10 count. It's gonna be a long season in El Paso, so be prepared to fade the Miners. ... Marshall picked up a 35-28 road win against rival Miami-Ohio, covering as one-point road 'dogs. The Thundering Herd is now 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS across their past six season openers. ... Old Dominion went to Liberty, favored by five points. The Flames, playing in their first game ever as an FBS program, never faltered in the 52-10 victory against the Monarchs.

-- Central Michigan opened on the road against Kentucky, and John Bonamego's crew hung around for a while. In fact, they trailed just 21-20 at halftime. But the Chips were scoreless in the second half to slip up 35-20. They were able to hang around for the cover, however. ... Ohio roughed up FCS Hampton in their opener last season, but this year they had trouble with Howard. The Bison won a game against the FBS last season at UNLV, and they were trying to spring another upset as 31 1/2-point 'dogs. Eventually the Bobcats won 38-32, but it wasn't pretty.

-- Idaho dropped back down to FCS, and Fresno State treated them rather rudely in their visit to the Valley. The Bulldogs scored seven rushing touchdowns en route to a 79-13 win. ... Nevada also went for a 70-burger against FCS Portland State, winning 72-19 to cover a four-touchdown spread. ... Offense was not missing in the Islands, either. Hawaii is off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start after sinking Navy. The Warriors are using the run-and-shoot and look like a very entertaining group early on. ... San Jose State is going to be terrible again. They were dropped 44-38 at home against FCS UC-Davis. Ouch.

Bad Beats

-- Oregon State was covering the 40-point number for the entire game, but Beavers side bettors were sunk by Buckeyes reserve RB Master Teague, as he ripped off a 33-yard touchdown run with 3:50 to go for the 77-31 win and cover.

-- Louisville didn't score much in their neutral-site battle against 'Bama, but they scored enough. 'Under' (60) were left muttering to themselves after Kemari Averett hauled in an 8-yard TD pass with 1:55 to play to close the Tide lead to 51-14, changing the 'under' to an 'over'. Why? WHY?!?!?!

-- Army was trailing 31-14, and they were attempting a long field goal in the closing minutes at Duke. The field goal was blocked, which was the good news for 'under' (46) bettors. The bad news is that the Blue Devils returned it deep into Black Knights territory. With 3:59 to go, Duke booted a 30-yard field goal which had no impact on the score or line, but it flipped an 'under' to an 'over'.

-- It was 33-3 through three quarters, and the 'under' (47.5) probably should've come in during Miami-LSU. There was a pick-six in the first half to bump the score up, but it was still very possible to hit the under. However, Miami scored two garbage touchdowns in the fourth quarter, including one in the final few minutes, to just push the total over at most shops. It was a disappointing result, as the under was the correct side.