NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 10

Betting Recap - Week 10
November 4, 2018
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 10 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 48-14
Against the Spread 32-28-2
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 36-26
Against the Spread 25-35-2
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 31-31

The largest underdogs to win straight up
SMU (+14, ML +450) vs. Houston, 45-31
Duke (+9.5, ML +300) at Miami-Florida, 20-12
Illinois (+9.5, ML +280) vs. Minnesota, 55-31
Arizona State (+8.5, ML +280) vs, Utah, 38-20

The largest favorites to cover
Clemson (-38.5) vs. Louisville, 77-16
Fresno State (-27) at UNLV, 48-3
Mississippi State (-23) vs. Louisiana Tech, 45-3
UAB (-21.5) vs. UTSA, 52-3

Top 25 Notes

-- Wasn't Alabama supposed to be tested on the road against LSU on Saturday? The Crimson Tide were, I guess, challenged for the better part of two quarters when it was 9-0 late into the end of the second half. They also picked up the first interception of the season against Heisman favorite QB Tua Tagovailoa. However, the Bayou Bengals failed to score in Death Valley in the 29-0 statement victory, as the Crimson Tide continue to steam along and LSU's playoff chances went up in smoke in the process.

-- Michigan-Penn State was one of a handful of games dubbed by the worldwide leader as 'Statement Saturday'. The Nittany Lions were muted, while the Wolverines made a huge statement. They ran out to a 42-0 lead, and the Lions were only able to muster seven points before limping home with a 35-point loss. It's likely that the Michigan-Ohio State game later this month will decide the Big Ten East representative in the league's Championship Game. Michigan has won eight in a row since their season opening loss at Notre Dame, and they have covered four in a row.

-- Clemson continues to post historic numbers in the ACC. They steamrolled Louisville by a 77-16 score, easily covering a 38 1/2-point number. The Tigers have won two league games this season by 60 or more points. Entering this season there were just two wins of 60 or more points by any team in the history of the Atlantic Coast Conference across the first 65 seasons. After opening the season 1-4 ATS in the first five outings, Clemson is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the past four outings.

-- Washington State did something they hadn't all season - fail to cover a spread. They narrowly won 19-13 against California, and they needed a late touchdown to dispatch the Golden Bears. The Cougs are now 8-1 ATS, tied for the best ATS record in FBS along with Fresno State, UAB and Utah State.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Duke scored a 20-12 victory on the road against Miami-Florida in soggy conditions at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida. The Blue Devils continue to be one of the hardest teams to figure out. They are 4-0 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, and 0-3 SU/ATS in their past three as a favorite. Meanwhile, 'The U'...not quite back. They lost to the Blue Devils at home for the first time since 1976. ... Meanwhile, Syracuse continues to roll right along, posting a 41-24 win at Wake Forest. The Orange are 7-2 SU/6-2-1 ATs through nine outings.

-- Michigan State hit the road for Maryland and quickly ended any notion of an upset by the Terps. Sparty has bounced back with wins over Purdue and Maryland after a 21-7 setback to rival Michigan on Oct. 20. Sparty has covered consecutive games for the first time this season, too. The 'under' has cashed in four in a row for Michigan State, too. ... Illinois was dumped 63-33 last week by Maryland, so naturally they rebounded at home and handled Minnesota 55-31 as 9 1/2-point underdogs (ML +280). The Gophers are 4-1 SU at home, but 0-4 SU on the road. ... Michigan and Purdue have the best ATS mark in the conference at 6-3 ATS, while Wisconsin is the worst at 2-7 ATS. ... The 'over' is an impressive 7-2 for Penn State.

-- Iowa State wasn't going to take a step back to kill their momentum after a few nice home wins. They went to Kansas and put the Jayhawks in their place, 27-3. As a result, the Cyclones improved to a Big 12-best 6-2 ATS. ... On the flip side, TCU slipped past Kansas State by a 14-13 score, but they failed to cover again. They have the worst record against the spread in the conference at 2-7 ATS. ... Oklahoma held off Texas Tech in a 51-46 shootout in Lubbock, as the 'over cashed for the seventh time in nine games for the Red Raiders. The over is now an impressive 8-1 for the Sooners.

-- Washington earned a 27-23 win against Stanford, although they failed to cover. Unlikely their rivals from The Palouse, the Huskies are a dismal 2-8 ATS, the worst mark against the spread in the Pac-12. ... Oregon gained bowl eligibility with a 42-21 win and cover against UCLA. It was a rare cover, as the Ducks are still just 3-6 ATS overall. ... Utah took it on the chin against Arizona State by a 38-20 score, improving to 6-3 ATS. There are four teams tied in the South Division standings with three losses apiece, and that's the best mark.

-- Missouri picked up a much-needed road win over Florida, 38-17. After a 5-0 SU/ATS run, the Gators have losted and failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season. ... Georgia topped Kentucky in Lexington by a 34-17 score, pouring some cold water on the previously streaking Wildcats. In doing so, the Dawgs clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game and a date with 'Bama. UGA has covered back-to-back games for the first time since Oct. 27-Nov. 3.

Bad Beats

-- There weren't a lot of bad beats across college football this week, but the Texas A&M-Auburn was a triple-headed bad beat, if there ever was such a thing. The Aggies led 24-21 with less than two minutes to go, but the Tigers scored a TD with 1:41 to go to change everything. The total (47) changed from 'under' to 'over', moneyline bettors of the Aggies took it in the shorts and the Tigers ended up covering the 3 1/2-point number, too.

-- The total in Georgia Tech-North Carolina (64 1/2) looked to be going under. The Ramblin' Wreck scored a go-ahead TD with 3:00 to go, taking a 35-28 lead. They got down deep in Tar Heels territory and elected to kick a field goal with :46 to go, taking a 38-28 lead and flipping the total from under to over.

-- If you're betting an Alcorn State-New Mexico State game, you have bigger problems than a little ol' bad beat. The Aggies were up 52-35 and covering the 12 1/2-point number, but Alcorn scored a touchdown with :26 left for the backdoor cover and a pretty big bad beat.

-- FAU and Lane Kiffin have appeared frequently on the bad beats section and Scott Van Pelt's famous segment in the past, and they are likely to appear there again this week. The Owls were thumping their rivals FIU by a 42-14 count late in the game. The Owls put in their backups and were getting some younger players some much-needed time. Little-used QB Rafe Peavey entered late and scored an 11-yard touchdown run with :27 to push the lead to 49-14, and flip the total (59 1/2) from an under to an over.