NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 5

September 30, 2018
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 5 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-12
Against the Spread 26-32
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-21
Against the Spread 31-27
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-26

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Tulane (+14.5, ML +450) vs. Memphis, 40-24
Army (+7, ML +230) at Buffalo, 42-13
Florida (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 13-6
Liberty (+7, ML +225) at New Mexico, 52-43
Virginia Tech (+6.5, ML +210) at Duke, 31-14

The largest favorites to cover
Georgia Tech (-28) vs. Bowling Green, 63-17
Wake Forest (-28) vs. Rice, 56-24
Appalachian State (-25) vs. South Alabama, 52-7
Arizona State (-22) vs. Oregon State, 52-24
Oklahoma (-21.5) vs. Baylor, 66-33

Top 25 Notes

-- The Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Penn State lived up to the pregame hype, as it was a classic in Beaver Stadium. That is, unless you had the 'over', as the total (69.5) was never in question with a defense first three quarters. There were just 27 total points on the board heading into the fourth quarter before the offenses combined for a total of 26 points. There was the specter of overtime giving over bettors some hope, but that never came into fruition. It's too bad, too, as this one was fun to watch so overtime would have been a treat. The Buckeyes moved to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS, and the 'under' is now 3-1 over their past four outings.

-- Alabama flew out to a 49-0 lead on Louisiana, erasing the 49-point spread by halftime. Unfortunately for Tide side bettors, they took their foot off the gas and the Ragin' Cajuns scored two fourth quarter touchdowns and 14 unanswered points for the backdoor cover, with their final TD coming with 3:58 to go. After opening 3-0 ATS, the Tide are 0-2 ATS across the past two outings.

-- Clemson certainly got a scare, especially when their starting quarterback exited the game and the third-string signal caller entered against Syracuse. The Orange had a 23-13 lead at one point during the fourth quarter, but the Tigers stormed back for 14 unanswered points in the final quarter to avoid a major upset at the hands of 'Cuse for a second straight season.

-- Washington was not about to get bitten by the Brigham Young upset bug. The Huskies fired out to a 35-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter, using their lockdown secondary to stymie the upset-minded Cougars. The Huskies entered the day just 1-3 ATS, and it was their first cover in three tries at home. The 'under' is now a perfect 5-0 on the season for the Dawgs, too.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- North Carolina State kept their record unblemished with a 35-21 victory over Virginia. The Wolfpack improved to 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS over the past three games. If you were an 'under' bettors (53) you weren't terribly pleased about the finish of this one (see below). ... Virginia Tech rebounded in a big way with a 31-14 road win at Duke, serving up the Blue Devils their first loss in five games. After opening 3-0 ATS, Duke is now 0-2 ATS over the past two. ... Miami-Florida paddled North Carolina 47-10 to pick up their fourth straight victory while going 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their five outings this season.

-- Michigan State took care of Central Michigan 31-20, moving to 3-1 SU while slipping to 1-3 ATS overall. ... Northwestern nearly pulled off the upset, leading Michigan for most of the contest. However, the Wolverines ended up with the 20-17 win in Evanston, slipping to 2-3 ATS. They haven't covered in consecutive games yet this season and they're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two road contests. ... Nebraska cannot seem to get out of their own way, as Scott Frost slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS after a 42-28 loss to Purdue. After opening 0-3 SU, the Boilermakers have won two in a row and they have covered three straight.

-- Oklahoma slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover skid with a 66-33 win over Baylor. It was another 'over' for the Sooners, the fourth in five outings so far this season. ... Texas picked up an uneventful 19-14 victory at Kansas State, their first victory in Manhattan since 2002. They're still 0-2 ATS in two games away from Austin this season. Next up is the Red River Rivalry Game against the Sooners in Dallas. ... The side winner changed a handful of times since the midway point of the third quarter in Oklahoma State-Kansas. The Cowboys were laying 17, and they were covering or pushing for a good chunk of the contest. They went up 20 midway through the third quarter, only for Kansas to scored a TD early in the fourth. OK State returned the favor with 6:22 to go to cover agin, but Kansas struck quickly with 4:19 to pull back within 13. After a failed onside kick, the Cowboys ended up with a short field and they scored with 2:38 to go to earn the 48-28 win and cover.

-- After falling last week at USC, Washington State rebounded with a 28-24 win at home against Utah as short 'dogs on the Palouse. The Cougars struck with 4:14 to go in regulation, taking a 28-24 lead on an 89-yard touchdown, flipping the side in favor of the Cougs, and the total (50.5) also flipped on the big play. ... One of the other marquee matchups was Stanford-Notre Dame, but someone forgot to tell the Cardinal. After an emotional comeback last week at Oregon, head coach David Shaw's group was unable to bring it to that high of an emotional level for the second straight week in a tough road outing. The Irish blew their doors off 38-7, improving to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS. Notre Dame has covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

-- Kentucky moved to 5-0 SU with a 24-10 victory against South Carolina, picking up their second straight cover for the first time this season. Who had the Wildcats moving within one game of bowl eligibility and the calendar doesn't even read October yet? ... Texas A&M posted a 24-17 win over Arkansas, as they held on for the win but slipped to 4-1 ATS with their first non-cover. ... Florida picked up a 13-6 win at Mississippi State in the Dan Mullen Reunion Bowl in Starkville. After opening an impressive 3-0 SU/ATS, the Bulldogs are 0-2 SU/ATS while scoring just 6.5 PPG in two SEC battles and Auburn looming on the schedule next week.

Mid-Major Report

-- Tulane posted the 40-24 win over Memphis, the biggest underdog (+14.5, ML +450) to pick up an outright victory. ... Cincinnati rolled to a 49-7 win over Connecticut, easily earning the cover as 16-point road favorites. The Bearcats improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, while the Huskies slipped to 1-4 SU/ATS, and 0-4 SU/ATS in four outings against FBS schools. ... Temple was unable to score the outright upset at Boston College, but the Owls earned their third consecutive cover.

-- It was a topsy-turvy day in Conference USA, as the two championship game representatives from a year ago, Florida Atlantic and North Texas each suffered losses in their conference openers. Middle Tennessee picked up the 25-24 win, posting the go-ahead touchdown with :38 to go to flip the side and deal Owls side bettors a bad beat. FAU slipped to 0-5 ATS. ... UNT was dropped at home by Louisiana Tech, as a blocked field goal sealed their fate. The under has cashed in four in a row for the Mean Green.

-- The game of the day in the MAC was Northern Illinois-Eastern Michigan, as these teams couldn't solve their differences until the third overtime. NIU ended up with a 26-23 road win, and 'under' (50.5) had to sweat out a winning ticket for an extra hour. EMU has dropped back-to-back games in overtime, as they could very well be 4-1 SU. The Eagles are a solid 4-1 ATS so far. ... Miami-Ohio fell short against Western Michigan 40-39, but they held on for the cover at most shops. This line moved from Miami favored by 1.5 to WMU favored by 2.5 during the week, but the sharps got it wrong in this one.

-- New Mexico fell 52-43 to Liberty, in a high-scoring battle, as the 'over' is now 4-0 for UNM through four games. ... Fresno State posted an impressive 49-27 win over visiting Toledo, moving to 3-1 SU/ATS in four games this season. ... Hawaii was back on the mainland for the third time this season, and it ended a lot better than last time around. Well, sorta. They picked up a 44-41 win in overtime at San Jose State, scoring 41 or more points for the fifth time in five games. However, after opening 2-0 ATS they're just 0-3-1 ATS across their past four outings.

-- Troy earned a 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina to win and cover for the fourth straight outing. ... Appalachian State rolled to an impressive 52-7 win against South Alabama, picking up their fourth cover in as many outings. The 'over' is also a perfect 4-0 so far this season for the Mountaineers.

Bad Beats

-- The Owls of FAU had a 21-3 lead at one point, and it looked like they were going to handily cover a three-point line on the road. However, Middle Tennessee stormed back and outscored the Owls 22-3, including a touchdown and two-point conversion with :38 left in regulation to flip the cover from FAU to Middle Tennessee.

-- Western Kentucky was leading Marshall by a 17-13 score after a go-ahead TD at 6:50 left in regulation. The Thundering Herd posted the TD with 1:44 to go, taking a 20-17 lead to kill moneyline bettors of the Hilltoppers. For those laying three and the hook, the Herd didn't do nearly enough at the end.

-- For those holding 'under' (69) tickets, the lack of offense in the second half of ULL-Bama was nice. However, the Ragin' Cajuns scored a TD with 3:58 to go to not only send the total over, but also flip the side from a push at most shops to a non-cover for Bama.

-- In the UVA-NC State game, there was a total of 53. There were a couple of things that went wrong if you had an under ticket here. With :52 left in the first half, there were just 17 total points on the board. However, the Wolfpack scored 10 quick points in the final minute of the second quarter to take a 20-7 lead, suddenly putting the over on track. It was a defense battle again in the third and most of the fourth, but the Pack scored with 7:25 for a total of 49 points. Under bettors were still feeling pretty good, but then the Hoos moved the ball into the red zone and punched one in with 3:08 to go to push the total over.