NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 6

October 7, 2018
By Joe Williams

The largest underdogs to win straight up
San Diego State (+13.5, ML +400) at Boise State, 19-13
Northwestern (+10.5, ML +330) at Michigan State, 29-19
Iowa State (+10, ML +300) at Oklahoma State, 48-42

The largest favorites to cover
Memphis (-36) vs. Connecticut, 55-14
Georgia (-26) vs. Vanderbilt, 41-13
Mississippi (-23.5) vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 70-21
Clemson (-20.5) at Wake Forest, 63-3

Top 25 Notes

-- The Red River Rivalry lived up to expectations on Saturday afternoon, although it didn't look like it at first. Texas shot out to a 45-24 lead at one point over Oklahoma, but Kyler Murray and the Sooners didn't give up. They closed the lead to 14 points with 8:28 left in regulation, and they tied it up 45-45 with 2:38 to go. However, true freshman PK Cameron Dicker would be the hero from 40 yards out, sending the Longhorns to a 48-45 victory. The Longhorns are now 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings in this series.

-- Clemson rolled to a 63-3 victory on the road against Wake Forest, as side bettors of the Tigers never even broke a sweat. The Tigers fired out to a 28-0 lead at halftime, and they didn't take their foot off the gas peddle at any point in the second half. Clemson had their quarterback back from injury, but it was the run game that propelled them in this one. Three backs had exactly 10 carries each, and all three ran for at least 128 yards while combining for six rushing scores. If only they could all be this easy, right?

-- Alabama hit the road for Arkansas favored by five touchdowns. It was another ho-hum effort, as they shot out to a 41-14 lead by halftime, and they held a 65-24 lead after a touchdown at 1:59. The line switched back and forth several times in the fourth quarter. It appeared the Crimson Tide would get the backdoor cover, but it was the Razorbacks who were doling out the bad beat with a rushing touchdown with just :13 seconds remaining.

-- North Carolina State picked up the victory over Boston College, 28-23, as the Wolfpack remaining a perfect 5-0 SU. In addition, the 'under' is 3-1 so far through four games at home. Their unbeaten streak will certainly be put to the test in two weeks when they play at Clemson after a bye. The Wolfpack are averaging 35.3 PPG through four games against FBS opponents, so the Tigers will certainly be on upset alert. There was a bad beat in this one, too (see below).

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Miami-Florida was involved in a dogfight, and it appeared initially that they were going to be run out of their own building by struggling Florida State. The Hurricanes ended up erasing a 27-7 deficit to stun the Seminoles 28-27. After an 0-3 ATS start, the Seminoles are 2-1 ATS with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three. ... Virginia Tech was in it for a half against Notre Dame, down just 17-16 at the break. The Irish fired out of the room in the third quarter for a 31-16 lead and they never looked back, winning it 45-23 to keep their playoff hopes going.

-- Michigan State was unable to avoid the Northwestern upset bug, something their brethren from Ann Arbor narrowly avoided last week. The Wildcats have covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they're 2-0 ATS against Michigan teams. ... Nebraska suffered another loss, as Wisconsin added to their misery. The Cornhuskers are 0-5 SU, but at least they covered for the first time in five tries. The 'over' has hit in each of their past three. ... Indiana was a thorn in the side of Ohio State again, as the Hoosiers were good for 26 points at the Horseshoe, and they entered the fourth quarter down just 35-26. The Buckeyes gained a little bit of separation for the 49-26 win, but it wasn't as lopsided as that score indicates.

-- Oklahoma was upset by Iowa State Iast year, and this season the Cyclones upended another team from the Sooner State. Oklahoma State suffered the 48-42 setback at home in a game which had a total of just 55.5 points. It was 30-21 at halftime, so 'over' bettors certainly enjoyed the game no matter the result of the line. ... West Virginia might be carrying the flag for the Big 12 now that Oklahoma suffered their first loss of the season. The Mountaineers topped doormat Kansas for the 38-22 win. It wasn't quite a bad beat, although somewhere somebody lost a teaser when the Jayhawks scored with :00 on the clock.

-- Washington struggled with winless UCLA, winning just 31-24 despite being favored on the road by three touchdowns. The Bruins slipped to 0-5 SU, and they're just 2-3 ATS. Those two covers against against Top 25 teams Oklahoma and Washington, with the 'over' cashing in each outing. ... Stanford was going to be in trouble with Heisman hopeful RB Bryce Love (ankle) sidelined, but everyone still expected the Cardinal to get it done against Utah. The Utes were desperate for a win, however, looking to keep their hopes alive in the Pac-12 South, and they were able to post a 40-21 victory. Not only did they win for the first time in three games, they covered for the first time against an FBS team.

-- Kentucky suffered their first loss of the season at Texas A&M in a surprisingly defensive battle, 20-14. This one went to overtime and there was a bad beat involved in the result of this one, too. ... Florida introduced the No. 15 of Tim Tebow into their ring of honor at 'The Swamp'. No way they were losing to LSU, right? The Tigers were winning and covering with 11:14 to go, 19-14. However, Florida took the lead for good 20-19 with 8:48 to go, and they added a pick-six for good measure, a game-changer for total bettors (see below).

Bad Beats

-- There were plenty of bad beats, and they all involved big schools, too. We mentioned Arkansas covering with :13 remaining, but reallly, the Crimson Tide side bettors were only winning for a minute or two, so was it really THAT bad of a beat?

-- In Gainesville, total bettors (44.5) looked to be in good shape with the Gators up 20-19 with less than two minutes to go and LSU deep in their own territory. However, the Tigers were picked off by Brad Stewart who housed a 25-yard interception for score to flip the 'under' to an 'over'.

-- Florida Atlantic entered their game against OId Dominion at 0-5 ATS. The Owls were favored by two touchdowns at most shops, and it was a topsy-turvy fourth quarter. ODU cut FAU's lead to five, 32-27, with 12:13 left in regulation. The Owls scored twice to go up 46-27 with 6:43 to go. The Monarchs appeared to give their side bettors a backdoor cover, but FAU rattled off a 44-yard run by stud RB Devin Singletary for the 52-33 win and cover with 2:17 to go.

-- In that Kentucky-Texas A&M game in College Station, the Wildcats forced overtime at 14-14, catching five. They missed the field goal on their first possession of OT, so surely the Aggies would boot a field goal and Wildcats side bettors would cover the five, right? A&M scored a TD and dished out a bad beat, extra-time style with a 20-14 win.

-- On Thursday, the side and total were involved in a bad beat. Georgia State hit a touchdown and two-point conversion with 1:46 to go, cutting the lead of Troy to 37-20 and that's how it ended. The line ended up a push at most shops thanks to the miracle two-point play, and that also flipped the total (55.5) from an under to an over.

-- The New Mexico-UNLV game was scoreless through the first quarter, so 'under' (63) bettors were feeling pretty good. UNM had a 29-point outburst in the second, but still led just 36-0 heading to the fourth quarter. The Runnin' Rebels scored a total of just seven points in the first 55-plus minutes of play, but notched a meaningless TD at 4:43 to go, inching the total just over (63) and that's how the game finished.