NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 7

October 14, 2018
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 7 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 41-16
Against the Spread 28-29
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 31-26
Against the Spread 32-25
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 15-42

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Tennessee (+15.5, ML +500) at Auburn, 30-24
Michigan State (+13.5, ML +400) at Penn State, 21-17
Liberty (+11, ML +330) vs. Troy, 22-16
Charlotte (+9.5, ML +300) vs. Western Kentucky, 40-14
Kansas State (+8.5, ML +225) vs. Oklahoma State, 31-12

The largest favorites to cover
Alabama (-28) vs. Missouri, 39-10
South Alabama (-27.5) vs. Alabama State, 45-7
Utah State (-27) vs. UNLV, 59-28
Maryland (-24) vs. Rutgers, 34-7

Top 25 Notes

-- It was a topsy-turvy day in the Top 25 on Saturday, particularly the Top 10. Georgia was the biggest domino to fall, as they were routed at LSU by a 36-16 score. West Virginia also fumbled away their chance, and subsequently the Big 12's chance, of likely seeing a spot in the four-team playoff at season's end with their ugly 30-14 setback at Iowa State. The Pac-12 is also officially out of the playoff mix after Washington slipped up in overtime at Oregon, 30-27. Penn State joined those teams in the Loser Lounge with 21-17 setback at home against Michigan State, their second consecutive loss in Happy Valley.

-- Colorado headed to USC without a loss, but they came home with their first L and a non-cover, as the Trojans finally figured out a way to win a big game at home. The Trojans were helped out by the fact Heisman hopeful Laviska Shenault Jr. (foot) suffered an injury in the game. The Buffaloes will try to rebound next week, but a trip to Washington is not what the doctor ordered to cure their ills.

-- If you hear anyone tell you that 'The U' is back, point them to the box score of today's Miami (Fla.)-Virginia game. The Hurricanes stumbled in Charlottesville, a play the 1980's version of the Hurricanes would never have dreamt of losing. Miami has now failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they probably should've lost last week against rival Florida State if the Seminoles could get out of their own way.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Duke took advantage of several miscues in cooling off Georgia Tech, 28-14. The Blue Devils stopped a two-game non-cover streak while hitting the 'under' in consecutive games for the first time this season. ... Pittsburgh nearly added Notre Dame to the upset list, but the Irish were able to stave off the rival Panthers by a 19-14 score in South Bend. However, Pitt easily covered a 22-point number, just their second cover in six tries this season. ... Virginia Tech stunned North Carolina by a 22-19 score, so hopefully you didn't have the Tar Heels on the moneyline (see bad beats below).

-- Speaking of bad beats, Northwestern nearly gave Nebraska its first victory of the season. Instead, the Wildcats were able to erase a 14-point late deficit to force overtime. The Cornhuskers turned it over in OT, and the Wildcats picked up the game-winning field for a push at some shops. ... Michigan routed Wisconsin 38-13 in the Big House, uninviting the Badgers to the playoff party, if they weren't already out. The Wolverines improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in five games at home this season, and the 'over' has hit in four in a row in Ann Arbor.

-- Texas wasn't particularly impressive at home, but they managed to squeak by Baylor by a 23-17 count in Austin. The Bears entered the game 1-4-1 ATS in their first six games, and the 'under' was just their second after a 5-1 'over' start. ... The upsets actually started Thursday night in Fort Worth, as Texas Tech earned a much-needed win, 17-14, over Texas Christian. After getting routed by Ole Miss in the opener the Red Raiders have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in the past five outings.

-- UCLA provided Chip Kelly with his first victory since returning to college football, a resounding 37-7 win at California that even QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson's dad won't have a problem with. In Friday's action, Utah had no hangover following their win in Palo Alto last week as they crushed Arizona by a 42-10 count. The Utes have posted covers in consecutive games for the first time this season after a 1-3 ATS start.

-- If you had Arkansas on the mneyline against Mississippi, condolences. If you had the 'under' (66.5) in this game, the same. It was a double bad beat late. See below. ... Texas A&M held on for the 26-23 win at South Carolina, and they were able to nail down the cover, too, at least at most shops. The Aggies are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS through seven contests heading into a bye week.

Bad Beats

-- If you had Nebraska on the moneyline (+125), it was an ugly finish. The Cornhuskers were leading 28-14 with 13:40 to go, and 31-21 with 5:41 remaining in regulation. However, the Wildcats scored a touchdown with :12 remaining in regulation to force overtime. The Huskers were picked off on the first possession of the extra session, and Northwestern booted the game-winning field on their end of OT. The late touchdown also sunk those holding 'under' (59) tickets.

-- 'Under' (57) bettors were feeling pretty good about themselves in the Marshall-Old Dominion game, as there were just 31 points on the board heading to the fourth quarter. Marshall scored a TD with 7:08 to go to make it 28-13, but 17 points were still needed for a losing ticket. The teams exchanged touchdowns over the next 4:03, making it Herd 35-20 with 3:05 to go. Herd RB Tyler King ripped off the 65-yard touchdown to make it 35-20, and he added a 46-yard scoring run with 1:53 to go in regulation, killing 'under' bettors in the process.

-- It's always the 'under' (47.5) bets, isn't it? Wisconsin-Michigan had a total of 28 points on the board heading to the fourth quarter. Michigan took a 31-7 lead with 9:55 left in regulation, and you knew what was coming next if you liked the under. Michigan scored with 5:16 to go, making it 38-7 and then the Badgers ruined the day with a meaningless touchdown at 3:47 to go, making it 38-13.

-- If you had the nerve to take Arkansas on the moneyline, it was an awful beating at the end of regulation. The Hogs were up by as many as 17 at one point, and by nine with 2:33 to go at 33-24 in the third quarter. With 57 points on the board with 4:15 to play, an 'under' (66.5) bet was surely safe, right? Well, Arkansas allowed a touchdown but still lead 33-31. Moneyline - good. Under - good. However, Ole Miss ruined the day for everyone with 5-yard touchdown with just :42 remaining. Awful.