NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 9

Betting Recap - Week 9
October 28, 2018
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 9 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-23
Against the Spread 26-29-1
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 32-24
Against the Spread 30-25-1
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 38-18

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Oregon State (+24.5, ML +1700) at Colorado, 41-34 (OT)
Kansas (+13.5, ML +400) vs. Texas Christian, 27-26
California (+12, ML +400) vs. Washington, 12-10
Georgia Southern (+11, ML +340) vs. Appalachian State, 34-14

The largest favorites to cover
Fresno State (-24.5) vs. Hawaii, 50-20
Oklahoma (-24.5) vs. Kansas State, 51-14
Utah State (-19.5) vs. New Mexico, 61-19
Clemson (-17.5) at Florida State, 59-10

Top 25 Notes

-- The Pac-12 continues to cannibalize itself, and now only Washington State has a remote shot at a playoff spot. That's because Washington lost again, this time to an unranked California side, while Oregon was curb-stomped by Arizona in the desert by a 44-15 score. Washington State won by a 41-38 score at Stanford, and it's likely that Wazzu, Utah and maybe Washington make the Top 25 rankings this week.

-- It was a battle between ranked teams in the Big Ten, and Iowa-Penn State turned out to be a good game. The Nittany Lions picked up the 30-24 win against the Hawkeyes. Penn State booted a field goal to push the total over (52.5) with 8:24, but they were unable to add to their total as Iowa hung on for the cover.

-- Clemson went down to Florida State and absolutely killed the Seminoles. That's not an exaggeration, either. The 59-10 win was FSU's worst-ever loss on their home field, and it was so bad in the second half that the telecast caught an old man reading a book with no shirt on. Not a pretty scene, literally and figuratively. The mighty have fallen hard in the Panhandle of Florida.

-- In Jacksonville, Florida was dropped in the Cocktail Party by Georgia, setting up a winner-take-all for the SEC East in Lexington. Wait, wuuuuut? Lexington? Yep, Kentucky scratched out an ugly, defensive last-second victory at Missouri, 15-14. Vegas had the Wildcats as 7 1/2-point 'dogs, and for about 55 minutes they looked absolutely correct. But the Wildcats ripped off a punt return for score, then a touchdown with :00 on the clock to steal one in Mizzou. The Wildcats are now 7-1 SU, but still just 4-4 ATS. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for UK.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- N.C. State-Syracuse was like watching a video game. The total (65) was set rather high for an ACC game, but obviously not nearly high enough. The Wolfpack and Orange exchanged haymakers and this was a three-point game late into the fourth quarter before the Orange pulled away for a 51-41 win and cover. ... Wake Forest took care of Louisville 56-35 for their first ACC victory and just their second cover in eight outings. The 'over' is now 6-1 in the past seven for the Deacs.

-- Michigan State was an underdog at home against red-hot Purdue, but dinged up Sparty told the Boilers to slow their roll. The Spartans held off the Boilermakers 23-13 for just their third cover in eight outings. The 'under' has cashed in a season-high three in a row for MSU. ... Maryland pounded Illinois by a 63-33 count, rebounding after being blanked at Iowa last week. The Terps have alternated straight-up wins and losses and covers and non-covers in each of their first seven games so far.

-- Iowa State took care of business against Texas Tech, 40-31. The Red Raiders fired out to a 10-0 lead, and they had a 17-14 lead at halftime. In addition, it was 31-31 late until Texas Tech's freshman QB was whistled for an intentional grounding call in the end zone for a safety, and then a late interception cost side bettors a cover. ... Oklahoma State rolled out to a 31-14 halftime lead, and they were up 10 after three on Texas. The Longhorns cut the lead to three, but could get no closer, losing 38-35. With the loss the Longhorns are likely eliminated from the playoff conversation, with Oklahoma still alive, although the light is flickering.

-- Oregon State headed to Boulder as 24 1/2-point underdogs, and they fell behind 31-10 heading to the fourth quarter. However, Colorado folded, and they folded hard. The Beavers outscored the Buffs 24-3 in the final quarter, and 7-0 in OT for the miracle victory. Technically, the Beavs are still alive for bowl eligibility, but that will take another miracle. ... Utah stepped all over UCLA by a 41-10 score in the Rose Bowl on Friday night. This game was a disappointment if you were holding an 'over' (54.5) ticket.

-- Mississippi State was a one-point favorite at home against Texas A&M, which raised some eyebrows. The Bulldogs got it done at home, however, pulling away with a 14-0 fourth quarter to win it 28-13. The Aggies are likely still hearing cowbells ringing in their ears. ... Tennessee gave South Carolina all they could handle, but in the end the Gamecocks hung on for the home win, but they never threatened to cover. They're 3-4 ATS, and they haven't had consecutive covers all season. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five for the 'Cocks.

Bad Beats

-- The 'under' (52) looked to be in OK shape with just 37 points on the board in Florida-Georgia through three quarters. However, UGA push the total over by just one point with a TD at 4:29 to take a 36-17 lead, which is what the game ended up.

-- If you were holding a moneyline ticket with Southern Methodist, ouch. They were tied up 20-20 with Cincinnati in OT. The Mustangs had the ball first and they were looking to take the lead in the extra session. However, the Bearcats picked it off and returned it for a pick-six to spoil the upset bid and dreams of SMU moneyliners.

-- Florida International-Western Kentucky (54) looked like a certain under, with FIU up 28-3 heading to the fourth quarter. However, Western scored a touchdown and two-point conversion with 1:55 left to make it 48. Still, it should have ended up under, but D'Vonte Price for FIU ripped off a 58-yard touchdown just 20 seconds after the onside kick attempt, turning a sure under into a losing ticket.

-- Going back to Thursday's Sun Belt (Fun Belt!) action, the rawest bad beat of the weekend happened in Statesboro, Ga. Georgia Southern was routing Appalachian State 34-7, scoring a TD with 3:28 to go in regulation. The 'under' (47.5) looked to be in good shape, but the Mountaineers scored with just :10 left to push the total over.