NCAAFB & NFL "TRUE STEAM"
by vegas-runner
After a "4-1" Weekend in NCAAFB & NFL...the "TRUE STEAM" Blog is now "11-6" (65% ATS) since I began choosing those "Early Moves" that are supported by my own Lines/Ratings, which are also updated & created weekly...I do this for the exact same reason that the Wiseguys do...Because without making my own "price" for each match-up, it would be impossible to compare what the oddsmaker come up with...and the bookmakers eventually offer...For the purpose of determining, where there may be some "value"...
It's just like any other "Market" that we all deal with on a daily basis...You would never try and purchase a car or home, without having your own opinion on how much it truely is worth...And based on that opinion, you can determine if there is enough value to make it worth buying...We do this for everything we purchase or sell...from clothing, to food, ect...
So as sports bettors, it becomes a factor that must be decided on before you even begin looking at what the bookmakers are offering...
Because as soon as you take a look at what lines the books are using for each game...whether you realize it or not, you have become biased...The reason for this is simple...When you look at TEAM A -5 vs TEAM B...Subconsciously, you already told yourself that TEAM A is the "favorite" to win the game...But what if before you looked at what the books hung up, you came to your own conclusion that TEAM B should actually be -1...Then you can immediately spot the "value"...and move on to step 2, which would be to handicapp the game, to try and find out why there is a difference of opinion between your line and the bookmakers...
You may find that there is an injury, or there is a strong historical trend...But if you are lucky, you just may find that it's because of "Public Perception"...Or that it's the number that the books felt will give them the best chance at "split action"...Either way, with those latter conclusions...you just found yourself some "value", and a reason to possibly take a position and make a wager...
The reason that I brought this up...is because after being one of those guys who actually moved these "steam" plays...I can tell you with certainty, that almost EVERY "early move"...is based on that difference in opinion...And it's only later in the week, after having time to really break down the individual match-ups...that the "steam" plays are based on "information" or "handicapping"...And the gathering of info, and the handicapping done...is all for the purpose of determining why the line being offered, differs from the line the Outfits made for that same game...
Although this may sound difficult at first...it just takes experience, and a lot of attempts...to get more comfortable doing it...My advice is to begin with a sport like the NFL, which we have all probably followed the longest and possibly, closest...And have a better understanding of what "Home Field Edge" is worth, and factors such as these...So this week, before you look at the lines that the books put out for Week 9 in the NFL...try and come out with your own, and do some comparing/shopping...
With that, let's move on to this week's "TRUE STEAM"...where once again, I was able to confirm 5 "Early Moves"...that were supported by my own lines...
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for SAT 11-7-09 :
1.) NORTH CAROLINA opened -7....Now -10
The Greek was the 1st off-shore book to hang a line on this match-up, and they opened the game, NC -7...That's where CRIS opened it also, about 10 min. later...And it was then that the Wiseguys gave them the first indication that it may be too low...And after laying -7, enough respect was given, to force an adjustment, up to -7.5...We are seeing the books willing to get on/off a "key number" with less resistance lately, and that's because the Outfits are getting the best of them...When this line got to 7.5, the Outfits backed off and on Monday morning we saw those shops who already had the following weekend's number up, also offer the game at 8...Then, the Wiseguys went to work, buying up all the -8, -8.5, & -9 that was out there...Within an hour, this line had gone all the way to NC -10...which finally backed them off...And that is where we are seeing this line today...
LINE PREDICTION : NC has been viewed on "prime-time" ESPN in back-to-back weeks...And although they just beat VTech, they are perceived as a team without much offense...This is why, now that the line is up to -10...the sportsbooks are expecting the betting public to take Duke...So unless another "buy-order" is sent out, which I highly doubt...we should see this line stay steady at 10...then drop some on game-day, when the public starts betting...and some of these Betting Syndicates decide to work a middle, after laying -7....VR
2.) ARIZONA opened -27....Now -33
Pinny got the jump on the other off-shore books, and were the first to offer a line on this match-up...And when they opened it up at ARZ -27, within "1 minute" the Wiseguys hit them hard enough to force an adjustment all the way up to -31...Any book that went ahead and opened the line after this at anything lower, was reprimanded immediately...so by the end of Sunday, we were seeing 31, almost all across the board...It stayed there until this morning, which tells me that this was a planned attack...Because when the spread is this high, more times than not...the sportsbooks will "circle" the game...Which means that they are only willing to take a "limited" amount of money on either side (most times 1/2 the normal limit)...By Tuesday, almost all books are offering a line on the weekend's games...locals included...And this morning, we saw the Betting Syndicates take advantage of that, and started buying up all the -31, -31.5, & -32's...that were available...This forced the books to move this line all the way to -33, where it sits now...
LINE PREDICTION : I believe that this line may get to 33.5 or even 34...But because the Outfits got such a good number early, I don't expect them to send out any more "buy-orders"...unless, it's to work a middle...And now that the line is this high, the public action should come in split...This is why I expect this line to stay around 33 throughout the week, then possibly take a dip on Saturday...With that said, I don't believe this will get back down below 31 again...VR
3.) COLORADO opened +4.5/+4....Now +2.5
This is one of those plays, which makes it difficult to know whether or not the Betting Syndicates are truely taking a "position"...or are simply looking to work a profitable middle...on and around the "key number" of 3...Because the first off-shore sportsbook to offer a line on this game, the Greek...hung up A&M -4...and took some money on the "fav"...The Greek moved the line to -4.5, and that is where CRIS opened their's...Once again, the books took some more money on A&M and by the end of the night...the line was -5, all across the board...That's where it stood on Monday, and where we saw most of the books here in Vegas also open it up...Until that is, the Outfits made what appeared to be a simple "buy-back"...which prompted the sportsbooks to drop the line back down, in 1/2 pt incriments...That all changed this morning...because the Wiseguys finally opted to show their true intentions, and began buying up all the +4, +3.5, & even +3's that were out there...Most books didn't want to play the cat & mouse game and went to 2.5 immediately, bypassing such a "key number"...While others, not wanting to entice such a profitable middle opportunity...went to +3 (-115 & -120) instead...Because as we touched upon on past blogs, the books are aware that the Betting Syndicates don't like to lay "vig" on "point-spread" sports...Finally, we are now seeing either 2.5...or 3, with the added vig...
LINE PREDICTION : It's no secret where the betting public will be putting their money on for this match-up...the "fav", TEX A&M...This is why I believe that the line for this game will eventually get to -3, everywhere...And those who went to 2.5, I think made a mistake by offering up such a profitable middle...The only way I can see this line moving now, is back up...as the public begins betting the game...or the Wiseguys decide to work that middle...Either way, if you like the fav...I would get down now, otherwise...wait this line out and you should get the best possible number on the dog, late...VR
4.) TULSA opened +3....Now -1.5
CRIS was the first to put a number up for this match-up, and when they hung up HOU -3...and didn't receive any money either way...within an hour, the rest of the off-shore books who offer lines early for the next week's games, felt safe enough to also put up 3 on that game...That was Sunday evening, and before the night was through...the Outfits bought some +3 on Tulsa and forced the adjustment down to 2.5...Then on Monday, when more books opened their lines for the upcoming games, the Wiseguys went ahead and took +2 & +1.5 on Tulsa...But with expectations of public money coming in on Houston, some books actually went back up to 2 by the end of the night...Then Tuesday came, and the Outfits decided to move full steam ahead (no pun intended)...and they really took it to the books hard...The "buy-orders" kept being sent out, and the Outfits were competing to see who can get the best number...And in the course of "11 minutes", they had forced the sports books to go from -2 on Houston...all the way to -1.5 on Tulsa...Ultimately letting the oddsmakers and bookmakers know, that they had the wrong team favored...
LINE PREDICTION : Although it's obvious that the Wiseguys see a lot of value on Tulsa...as I've pointed out countless times, they love to be able to get "points" on BOTH teams in any given match-up...This is why I expect this line to get back down to a PK eventually...And when the betting public gets involved, later in the week...and expecially on Saturday...we may very well see Houston go off as the favorite once again...VR
NFL "TRUE STEAM" for 11-8-09 :
1.) NY GIANTS opened -3 (-120)....Now -5
It's obvious to me, that when CRIS first opened this line at -3 & -120...they believed it was probably too low...But they wanted to test the waters, by adding the "vig" to deter the Wiseguys...especially since it was on a "key number"...That worked for a little while, because even though they took some NYG money from the Outfits...the books were only pressured into moving the vig to -130...But after taking a little more money at -3 & -130, the books were ultimately forced off the "key number" of "3"...to NYG -3.5...That is where this line was on Monday morning, but by Monday afternoon...the Wiseguys informed the books, that they still felt there was plenty of value on the G-Men...And they went ahead and laid -3.5 & -4 on them...This prompted the books to adjust the line, all the way to NYG -4.5...and even -5, at some shops...As of this morning, that is the line we are seeing on this match-up...
LINE PREDICTION : With the NYG having lost 3 straight, and the way they looked in losing those games...the oddsmakers and bookmakers just couldn't be sure what kind of adjustments the Outfits had made on their "ratings"...But they found out quickly, that the Wiseguys hadn't adjusted as much as they had expected...Now that the line is at 5, the sportsbooks will see plenty of 2-way betting action from the public on this game...Which means that the Wiseguys will be the ones who dictate where this ends up...If they attempt to work a middle, then we will see this dip back down to 4, and possibly 3.5...otherwise, expect it to stay steady and hover around 5 until game-time...VR
Those are the NCAAFB & NFL "Early Moves" that my own "Ratings" show to offer the most betting value...when compared to the "price" offered by the sportsbooks...
As I stated in previous blogs, the Outfits have made a name for themselves...and have beaten the books badly, by simply trying to cash more tickets than they trash...Which most times, means a winning percentage around 55-57%...
Inside the Steam
By Stan Sharp
Houston @ Tulsa
Tulsa Opened +3 now -1
For the second week in a row Stan notes that the Wise Guys are betting against Houston. Stan notes that the line has now crossed and Tulsa is the favorite. The Wise Guys have bet Tulsa hard and Stan says because they continued to bet the Tulsa side on Tuesday the line went as high as Tulsa -2.5. At that point Money came in on Houston bringing this line back to Tulsa -1 which is where Stan believes this line will stay. The Sharps do like the Tulsa side but the way they worked this line they have action on Tulsa +pts and Houston +pts. This was a classic position game by the Wise Guys hoping for a 1 point game. Stan's take the Wise Guys have action on both sides but are holding more Tulsa action.
Colorado St @ UNLV
Colorado St Opened -2.5 now +1
Stan notes that this is another classic case where the Wise Guys will end up with money on both sides and both times they will come away getting points. They bet UNLV as a Home Dog right away grabbing the best numbers they can get. This forces Vegas to move the line and make UNLV the favorite and then the public jumps UNLV thinking they are following the sharp bettors in Vegas and moves this line even more. By Saturday you will see the Wise Guys come back in and grab up Colorado St as a dog. Stan notes that this buy back will come late as this game will get a lot of late night action in Vegas as the Hometown UNLV team will get more money from local bettors on Saturday Night. The Wise Guys will buy Colorado St back with in the final 90 minutes before kick off. Stan says this is not True Steam but just the Wise Guys setting up a great spot for themselves to try and middle.
San Diego @ NY Giants
NY Giants Opened -3 now -4.5, -5
Stan notes that the money came in hard on the Giants in this one and this one a True Steam move where the Wise Guys just felt Vegas made a mistake with opening this game at -3. With the Giants losing 3 in a row and looking very bad in the losses for this game to be bet this hard this early shows just how bad of a number the Wise Guys feel this line was. Stan believes you could see this game get as high as 6 and if it hits 6 the Wise Guys may buy back some San Diego action at +6 but clearly they like the Giant side here. The Giants are True Steam.
Stan Sharp is a Professional Bettor in Las Vegas that has won 57.5% of his plays over a 31 month period. Stan only bets one game a day but the work begins early in the week as Stan monitors how the lines move and why the money is being bet the way it is.
hey blade or MC. i look forward to reading these every week..just wondering what you guyz think of the temple line tonight. I would think that would be a steam move. I dont think the public could move the 4 pts could they?
Thanks
over 14,000 bets have been placed on this game according to our NCAA public betting information and 66% of those are on Temple. Even though I don't have the dollar amount of that 66% I would deduce the public did move the line to 17 and this IS NOT a steam move
Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
This weekend’s slate of games was one of the more tame, quiet weeks of the entire season for the Sharps. There were a few plays early in the week with a couple more coming in late Thursday afternoon in College Football, but the Pro Football action has been baron.
Of the 13 Pro Football games, only four games have moved. That includes sides, totals, and money lines, a rarity for this stage of the week. Either the lines are too good being right on the mark, or there is a plan of attack by a few of the groups waiting to make their push at a synchronized time which likely will be late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Of the games that saw early action, The Giants were bet up from -4.5 to the dead number of -5.5 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book while others have settled around -5. If money is coming in at -5, there really is no difference between -5 and -5.5 meaning the next likely move is -6.
For the Giants, the same philosophy as last week for betting them when the move was against the Eagles is still in play. In this scenario, we have a good team that has lost three in a row welcoming a visiting west coast team traveling coast to coast.
If there is any relief for the Chargers, it should help that they’ll be playing at their normal 1:15 pm (PST) starting time rather than the early game which has been dreadful for all pacific time zone teams.
The Panthers getting 14-points was found attractive by bettors early in the week at New Orleans this week for a few possible reasons, beginning with the over-inflated line. This game should be in the 10-point range or less giving extreme value to the dog, a team that has beat the Saints straight up in six of their last seven meeting.
The Panthers seemed to have found their growl again last week against a good, but shaky Cardinals team led by staples of the Panthers past which is good defense creating turnovers, a solid running game, and Steve Smith making big plays. It’s the first time all season that they have experienced all three segments of their game coming together against an opponent.
The constants over the last three seasons between the two teams is that Drew Brees has been there, Carolina does what they do, and Louisiana native Jake Delhomme has done enough not to lose. In Delhomme’s last five against the Saints he’s thrown 8 TD’s and only one pick. On paper, the Saints opportunistic defense should be salivating over the chance to face Delhomme who has 13 interceptions on the season.
This game looks to be one that could play out similar to the Saints-Falcons Monday Night game. The Panthers running game should be able to move the ball effectively enough with their two-headed monster and a little home cookin’ for Delhomme could be just what the Cajun doctor ordered. For the Brave and bold, the Panthers money line will net +600.
The current line has the Saints at -13 with the high total of the week again at 52.
In the other minor moves, cardinal money has come in getting 3-points, even laying money to get it, at the Bears. Chicago is currently -3 +105 and is sure to go to 2.5-flat before the weekend gets started.
Tampa Bay found some takers following their bye week taking 10-points at home against the Packers. It’s a good sign for the books when the worst teams in football are found to have value with double-digits numbers. The public will be all over the Packers in this game at a ratio of about 95%, so they’ll be rooting for the early move to win.
College Football Moves of the Week
* Michigan State bet from -18.5 to -20.5 at Home against Western Michigan.
* Louisville money in at +19 at West Virginia dropping the number to +17.
* Arkansas moved from 5-point favorite to 7 against South Carolina.
* Baylor dog money found taking 16.5-points at Missouri dropping number to 14.
* LSU on the road dropped from +10 down to +7.5 at Alabama in the game of the week.
* Notre Dame bet Thursday from -10 to -12.5 against Navy.
* Nebraska home dog money came at +5.5 against their old rival Oklahoma, now at 4.
* Michigan at home laying 4.5-points to Purdue, pushed up to -6.5.