NCAAFB & NFL "TRUE STEAM" (10-31 & 11-1)
by vegas-runner
Last week the "True Steam" Bets went 3-3...making them 7-5 the last 2 weeks...And although that may not sound like anything to get excited about...It's exactly the type of results that the Wiseguys have been beating the books with forever...In fact, 58% ATS would be something that any of the Betting Syndicates would be extremely satisfied with...Remember, that the Wiseguys aren't in the business of trying to find those few games that they can unload on...Instead, they look for EVERY opportunity that they perceive to have an edge on...and bet it...Knowing that overtime, with volume, that edge will result in an excellent profit...
And I can personally tell you from experience, after spending a decade plus moving "Steam"...that the approach they use works...And there is no better proof than the fact these sportsbooks move the lines after the Wiseguys bet...they set strict limits on these Wiseguys...and many books even refuse to book what they believe to be "Wiseguy Money", or worse, pay out...So believe me when I tell you, that 58% ATS can make any bettor a lot of money...as long as they wager correctly...Which is something that is always automatic for these Betting Syndicates...
For Week 9 of NCAAFB & Week 8 of the NFL...I was able to uncover and confirm 5 "Early Moves" that my own numbers agreed, offer the most Betting Value based on what the Oddsmakers sent out...and what the Bookmakers decided to hang up and offer us...So without further delay, let's get right down to it and see if we can GRIND like the Wiseguys do...
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for 10-31-09 :
1.) VANDERBILT opened +13.5....Now +11.5
CRIS was first to put a number out on this game and they opened it up at GTech -13.5 on Sunday evening...They didn't receive any Wiseguy money on the game, and when the rest of the off-shore books began making book for next week...most went ahead and opened the game at -13.5 as well...But with the anticipation of the betting public coming in heavy on GTech come Saturday, we saw the Greek open the game at -14...These spreads were still available as of Monday afternoon, until the Outfits decided that they should get involved...The "Buy-Order" was sent out and the Outfits grabbed +13.5 on Vandi, which forced the adjustment to 13...That wasn't enough because within 10min another "Order" was made and the Outfits took +13...That prompted the books to move to -12.5 and the Wiseguys took a step back...but not for long, because after the books had finally relaxed and believed they now had a strong number up on this game...the Wiseguys were making other plans...Which weren't revealed until almost "3" hours later...And that's when the Outfits went back to work on that game and bought up any +12.5 on Vandi that was available...Most books had enough by this time, and rather than play this cat and mouse game with the Wiseguys...immediately moved to -11.5 to test the waters...That was enough to stop them from being bet into on this match-up, but for those who decided to adjust only a 1/2 point to -12 ended up taking a little more money on Vandi before finally getting down to -11.5...LINE PREDICTION : Because the Public is expected to come in strong with GTech money, I don't expect us to see this line drop any further...And since the Wiseguys took a 3hr break between betting, and also didn't bet Vandi on Sunday when the game was first offered...I'd have to think that this was based more on handicapping or information...than it was on a difference of Power Ratings...VR
2.) KENT opened +1...Now -2.5
The trend continued for this game, as the Wiseguys decided not to tip their hand until more books offered a line for next weekend's games...And when CRIS opened this line at W MICH -1 and didn't receive any Wiseguy money...all the other books who open for business a little later on Sunday evening...also went ahead and offered W MICH at -1...And that is where the line remained until Monday afternoon, when the Outfits decided to get to work...The "Buy Order" was sent out on KENT, and they took +1...forcing the books to adjust their line to PK...But the Wiseguys weren't done yet, because they went ahead and took KENT at PK...which prompted books everywhere to quickly make KENT the Favorite at -1...These 2 "Orders" were executed inside a 20min period...and then the Outfits backed off...But not for long, because the runners came right back 3 hrs later...looking to now lay -1 on KENT...The books obviously know that this type of match-up doesn't receive much public money on game-day, so they went ahead and made a 1pt move...taking KENT up to -2...And less than 10min later, the Wiseguys hit the books again...this time laying -2 on KENT...That now forced to books to take it to the "Key Number" of "3"...Which is something that they truely don't like doing...Because this now offers a very profitable "Middle" opportunity for the Betting Syndicates, if of course they choose to take it...When the books got to 3 on this game, we did see some Outfits decide to take that "Middle" by grabbing +3 on W MICH...Which is why we are now looking at -2.5 all across the board...LINE PREDICTION : We've seen this type of move plenty already, and I've said it before, that for some reason or other...when the Outfits can get "+ POINTS" on BOTH teams in the same game, more times than not...they will take it...What's interesting here, and what will ultimately put the sportsbooks in a terrible position is that the betting public is expected to bet W MICH...And they will now get them as a DOG...I don't think we will see this line get back to that key number of "3", because the only way the Outfits should now play this, is to work a "Middle"...And the books won't want them being able to get +3...VR
3.) TEXAS opened -9....Now -9.5/-10
Here is one of those examples that we've covered which really makes trying to follow "Steam" extremely difficult, without a good source...Because what we see is a team ranked in the TOP 3, moving simply a 1/2 to 1 point...Which more times than not, shouldn't come as a big surprise to bettors...But it is in this case and I'm going to tell you why...Because in this "Marquee" match-up, the books are expecting the betting public to take the "Home Dog", OKLAHOMA ST plus the points...And this is why such a small move is so significant...When CRIS opened this line at TEXAS -9 on Sunday night, they received no Wiseguy money on either side...So when the rest of the off-shore outs began making book for next week, they felt comfortable putting 9 up also...And here in Vegas, where they open the NCAAFB lines much later...and in fact a day later in most cases...they too felt that 9 was the right number to hang up...But once again, on Monday afternoon...the Betting Syndicates showed that they disagree...Because the "Buy Order" went out, and a couple of groups laid -9 on TEXAS...But with the public expected to come in on the other side, the books cautiously decided to adjust in 1/2 Pt incriments...taking TEXAS up to -9.5...The Wiseguys let them know that it still wasn't high enough and also went ahead and bet it at -9.5, which ultimately led to TEXAS becoming a double-digit road favorite...Since that time, we've seen some books go back down to 9.5...while others, such as the Greek, which caters to Wiseguys... remain at -10...LINE PREDICTION : It appears that the Wiseguys realized the books don't want to entice the public too much by offering a 10 pt "Home Dog"...So they backed off for now...I say for now, because it's obvious to me that their Ratings show Texas to be a good bet at anything less than -10...And I expect them to sit back and see if the betting public comes in on Oklahoma St enough to force the books to lower their lines...so they can possible strike again...Look for this one to drop some as dog money comes in, but with that said, come game-day if you see a move towards Texas again...then you can be very sure that the Outfits really like that side...VR
4.) SOUTHERN MISS opened +7.5.... now +6.5
Now here is a "True Steam" bet that was first made based on a difference in "Power Ratings"...and then became one based on handicapping/information as well...Let me explain because this is a HUGE move...For starters, the books expect to get a lot of public money bet on HOUSTON in this game...Which is evident by the fact that CRIS and the GREEK opened the line for this game at the EXACT same time on Sunday...with Cris making HOU -7.5 and Olympic making them -8...For this "Steam" bet, the Outfits waited over 2 1/2 hours after the line was up, to make their move...This tells me that their "Ratings" showed that there was a lot of value being able to get S MISS as a TD or better dog...Because they waited until more of their "Outs" began making book on the following week's games...And when that happend, the Wiseguys went ahead and took +7.5/+8 on S MISS...The books were obviously only going to adjust this line a 1/2 pt, because that now put this game on the "Key Number" of "7"...And some books were even hesitant to do that, since they expect to get 1-sided on the game by the public...So when the night was through, this line was anywhere from 7 to 7.5...Where it stayed until the Outfits decided that it was now time to really take a position...And once the first +7 was bought on S MISS, the rest of the Outfits decided to join in and before you knew it...within a 25min span...the Wiseguys had bought up all the +7's and +6.5's that were available to them...And there were plenty...All that Wiseguy money forced the books to take HOU all the way down to -6...And this morning, we are seeing -6.5 all across the board...LINE PREDICTION : In the heat of battle, the books may have over-reacted... Because as I pointed out, after the "Buy Orders" were executed...we've seen the books go back up a 1/2 pt, to -6.5 on HOU...The reason for this is 2-fold...One, they don't want to give the Outfits such a profitable "Middle" that they can't pass it up...And two, because the books are expecting a lot of public money to be bet on the other side...This tells me that we just may see this line get back to 7 on Saturday, with S MISS being -120 to get the TD...Because the Outfits are so disciplined and each move so calculated, that they really don't like having to lay the extra vig on a "spread" sport...VR
NFL "TRUE-STEAM" for 11-1-09 :
1.) SF/IND TOTAL opened 46.5...Now 44
This is one of those bets made by the Wiseguys that we can be 100% sure, they absolutely love...The reason for this is simple...They could have easily waited for the books to possibly adjust this line "UP" to a "Key Total" like 47...or even better, based on the fact the betting public will be unloading on the OVER on game-day...In fact, I personally expect this to be the most lop-sided bet total of the day in the NFL...And if I'm that sure, there is no doubt in my mind that the Outfits were aware of this as well...But with that said, it's also obvious that the Total they made for this game is so much LOWER than what the oddsmakers/bookmakers posted...Because there wasn't a second wasted on getting down...And when CRIS first opened the Total at 46.5, they immediately got bet into so hard...that they adjusted the line a whole 1 1/2 Points...All the way down to 45...It happend so quickly, that by the time Pinny decided to begin booking the game...only minutes later, they opened their Total at 45...That is where the majority of off-shore books who open a little later on Sunday, as well as the Las Vegas books, opened this Total...The Wiseguys ceased betting, and on Monday morning...this Total was 45 all across the board...That is until the Outfits felt there was still some Value there, and sent out another "Buy Order" on UNDER 45...Forcing the adjustment down to 44.5...LINE PREDICTION : Since that 2nd move was made on Monday, we are seeing books like the Greek, who cater to Wiseguy action, offer this Total at 44...While those books who more or less refuse Wiseguy money, and cater to the public, like Bodog...using 44.5...We can be sure that weather won't be a factor, and because so much got bet already, I don't expect the Outfits to "Steam" the UNDER again...And when the betting public starts firing their OVER bets into the books, we should see this one get back to 45 on game-day...VR
Those are the "5" EARLY MOVES that offer us the most Value, when compared to my own Lines (Ratings)...The biggest difference, which you probably picked up on...is that the Outfits are now being much more patient in their attack...In fact, friends who I spoke with that are actually some of the guys who are placing these bets for the Betting Syndicates, all said that this is planned...And the reason for this is because the sportsbooks have such little confidence in the oddsmakers these days...that they refuse to take high limits on their opening lines...In fact, they aren't even offering normal limits on most of these numbers...So it didn't take the Outfits long to realize that they should wait until more outs begin making book, so that they can get more money down on the "Steam"...
The only problem faced by doing this...is that some of the Outfits may not exercise the same patience as others...Which may make them step out and try to take a position before it may no longer be available...And since these Betting Syndicates end up on most of the same bets...as soon as one decides to make a move...the rest are also forced to begin getting down...
I'm interested to see how this plays out over these next few weeks...Because we weren't seeing this happen very much at all early on this season...And I'm also interested to see how the sportsbooks intend to counter this change in approach...
That's going to do it for this week's "TRUE STEAM"...We have "5" EARLY MOVES for next weekend's NCAAFB & NFL games...So let's see if we can do like the Wiseguys, and "Grind-Away" at Profit.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
In the aftermath of last week’s awful Week 7 of pro football action, the Las Vegas Sports Books have tried to combat the correct public perception of a few teams by inflating the lines of a few teams beyond what the power ratings and Las Vegas Sports Consultants suggest.
Public favorites like the Saints and Colts who have combined to go 11-1 against the spread this season have had almost 3 points added to their ratings this week. LVSC recommended the Colts -9.5 against the 49ers this week and was opened at -11.5 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and that still didn’t stop the public who have bet it to -12.
The Saints Monday Night Football game against a good Falcons team had a release of -7.5 and the Hilton opened it -9 and was quickly raised to -10.
“We have been inflating our send numbers to the books after coming up with what our normal odds making rating would be,” said LVSC’s senior oddsmaker Mike Seba. “We have to adjust with the way things are currently and hope that things turn around. These type of high numbers used to have value in the NFL, it’s not like college where they have to impress the polls.“
As an example of what kind of adjustment has been made, Seba gave insights to his thinking in making the number for the Saints Monday night game.
“In a normal scenario, the Saints would be about a 6 or 6.5-point favorite. This is a pivotal division game for the Falcons and will be bringing their best game. In situational type of odds making, we look less at what happened to the Falcons last week at Dallas and look at what’s at stake for the Falcons this week. If they lose, so does their chances at winning the division,” explained Seba.
To show how just how big of an initial inflated number LVSC suggested at 7.5 when their ratings came up with 6 or 6.5, just consider that they straddled over “7” which is the second highest margin of victory in football over the last five years at 9.1%. Only “3” has a higher margin of victory at 14.5% over the same span.
If it were any other number not around a key number, their inflated number could be considered a move of about 2.5 points. Compounding what looks to be great value on the dog is that sportsbooks took an already diluted line and watered it down more by pushing it to 10.
These are the times and market we live in and until someone proves the Saints or Colts wrong, these lines will continue to rise.
In the opposite end of the spectrum, the teams that the public love to bet against, the lines are equally as inflated. A sketchy Bears team can’t erase the public love of betting against the Browns who were suggested as 12-point dogs, but the Bears opened -13.
The Chargers, who haven’t exactly dazzled the bettors going 2-4 ATS, were suggested as -14.5 favorites at home against the Raiders, a team they barely beat in Week 1. The line opened -16.5 and was bet to -17 until finally finding a Raider taker bumping the line back to -16.5.
The Panthers have been one of those teams the public has cashed against regularly going 1-5 ATS. The send on the game was the Cardinals -7.5, the Hilton opened -8 and is currently at -10.5.
Fortunately for the books this week, two of the worst teams in the league are playing each other when the Rams play at Detroit. It should be interesting to see what side they go with in this doozy of a battle. No line has been put up on the game because of the Lions QB status where both Daunte Culpepper and Matt Stafford have practiced this week.
College Football Notes
Hawaii QB Shuffle
Everyone has been eagerly awaiting the Nevada line to come out to see where the major line move goes because the move has been golden in the last four Wolfpack games. In three of those instances, the line has moved with Sharp Nevada action and the cover got there. In the instance the money went against Nevada, the Sharps got there too.
This week they play Hawaii who has a real mess at the quarterback position. The last three weeks Hawaii has gone with Bryant Moniz, who started the season as the Rainbows No. 3 QB. He suffered a concussion in first quarter of Boise State’s 54-9 win last week. Replacing Moniz was Shane Austin who was unable to move the ball and threw 2 interceptions.
Compounding the Hawaii QB circus this week is that there is a chance that the original No. 2 QB Brent Rausch could play. He’s been nursing a pinkie injury on his throwing hand for the last six weeks
The variable on the line when it does eventually come out could be as high as 7 points. The send out from Las Vegas Sports Consultants was Nevada -27 based on Moniz starting. If for any reason Moniz can’t go forcing Austin or Rausch as the starter, the line could be around -33.
Big Games with Not Too Much Big Opinion
In the big games of the week, the line has been steady with USC -3 at Oregon as well as Texas -9 at Oklahoma State.
In the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”, Georgia opened as 16-point dogs and have been bet down to 15. It’s odd they would call this game the “Largest” since many of the fans at this game also attend that regions NASCAR events. Guess the 130,000-plus drink Vitamin Water at Atlanta and Charlotte Motor Speedway’s.
Just a Few Line Moves This Week
TCU was bet from -33 all the way to -37, but then some UNLV money came in pushing it to 34.5 where it sits now.
The early Sharp move of the week came Monday laying pick 'em with Kent State up to -2.5. Florida State was also bumped from a -7 opener on Monday to -9.5 Tuesday in their home game against North Carolina State.
Ohio State opened -40 in their non-conference game against New Mexico State, thanks to the Big-10 conference having 11 teams, and the line has risen a point just about every day to where it’s sitting now at -44. After struggling in the opener against Navy, the Buckeyes have covered four straight at home including last week’s win over Minnesota where QB Terrelle Pryor looked sensational. For whatever it’s worth amid the city of Columbus demanding he be moved to wide-out and wishing Michigan had won the recruiting battle two years ago for him, Pryor responded quite well under the scrutiny from losing their season at West Lafayette. This week could be a nice practice game for him to stat pad.
Inside the Steam - Week of Oct 20th
by Stan Sharp
Stan Sharp took the time to discuss some of the Key Line Moves this week as we will call this series "Inside the Steam"
Iowa @ Michigan St
Michigan St opened +1.5 now Pick and -1
Stan notes that we saw this exact situation last week with Iowa and Wisconsin. Stan noted that he believed the Wisconsin move was as much public money as wise guy money and he said the line would drop back down on Saturday as the Sharp outfits would buy Iowa at +3. Iowa did drop down and Iowa did get the money. This week Stan says this move is for real as after last week the public won't want Michigan St they will now believe that Iowa is for real. After all, the Public just lost their money going against Iowa by betting Wisconsin last week. Earlier this year Wisconsin went into Michigan St and beat Michigan St 38-30. So how can Michigan St beat Iowa if they couldn't beat Wisconsin. Stan says RESPECT this Move this Week Michigan St money is for real.
TCU @ BYU
TCU Opened Pick now -2.5
In what may be one of the best games of the weekend the Sharps wasted no time in taking a position on this game. When a game of this magnitude ( Both in Top 25) gets bet on Monday and Tuesday you have to take notice of what is going on. They bet TCU hard right up to -2.5. TCU is a team that is good that the public doesn't know a lot about because they don't get to see them. Stan says that this looks like the Wise Guys making a definitive stand on the TCU side and says you should respect this move.
Clemson @ Miami-Fl
Clemson Opened +7 now +5
Stan notes that the Wise Guys jumped on Clemson right away as the thought of getting a full TD was too good to pass up. Looking at the game closer Clemson is 3-3 with their 3 losses coming by a total of 10 points. So why wouldn't they take the Dog plus a TD. If this line continues to creep down to 4.5 or 4 The Sharps will buy this game back and take Miami-Fl on the Weekend looking for a live middle situation based on the closeness of Clemson's games. But generally speaking Stan notes that early money on the Dog is usually the real deal.
Wake Forest @ Navy
Navy Opened -1 & -1.5 now -3
Stan notes that this move is a move where the public will jump on and follow the steam. Navy scored 38 last week while Wake Forest scored 3 so the public will love Navy in a pick the winner situation. The sharps buy Navy at -1 and the line goes up then the public jumps on to piggy back the so called steam and this line hits 3 maybe even 3.5 late in the week. When that happens the sharps will be back only this time buying the dog for value. Stan says this move is not true steam but more of a position play that will be created by the public.