NCAAFB TRUE STEAM

NCAAFB TRUE STEAM
by vegas-runner

We come in off a "3-1" week with our "True Steam" and are now "11-3" over the L/3 weeks...We've also cashed "69% ATS" on all "True Steam" bets, since I began choosing those "early moves" that my own lines/ratings support the most...The key to our success has been finding those wagers that the Outfits have taken the most significant positions on...which have continued to beat the books throughout the NCAAFB & NFL Season...

Because as they've proven for years past...and will continue to, for years to come...the oddsmakers and sportsbooks have always been a step or two behind these Betting Syndicates...And more importantly, as sports betting continues to grow in popularity and more recreational players enter into the equation...the edge these Outfits have seems to only get bigger...Because when the "Public Money" outweighs the "Wiseguy Money"...the oddsmakers and ultimately, the bookmakers...are forced to factor in "public perception" even more...

You have probably also noticed that I continue to pass along the fact that these Betting Syndicates are now begining to make it harder on the sportsbooks, by not showing their hand early...And instead, waiting until more "outs" have put a betting line up for the following week's games...Because with the lack of confidence that the bookmakers have in the lines sent to them by the oddsmakers, we've seen more and more sportsbooks either limit the "early wagering"...and in many cases, even refuse to put a line up until they see what adjustments had to be made...by those books who are willing to put out the "early lines"...

And this cat and mouse game gets even more interesting, when we are dealing with sports which are played each day...And when we begin doing the "True Steam" for basketball very shortly, I will let you know many of the manuevers that these Betting Synducates love to make...

I have really gotten into this "True Steam" blog because I see the amount of interest so many handicappers have for this type of information...And nothing is more important to me than knowing that you can be assured that this information is completely accurate...

Remember, unlike my "Line Predictions" blog which I publish each Thursday...in an effort to inform bettors when the best time may be to wager on certain games, in order to get the "best number"...which I am able to do because of so many years of monitoring line moves...this "True Steam" blog is loaded with information that I gather from many various sources...

This information comes not only from bookmakers like BookieBill and so many others that I have access to...But it comes directly from those "runners" & "beards" that are actually some of the bettors who are behind these line moves...And these are all contacts that I've made during the decade plus that I spent moving "Steam"...as well as others that I have met since becoming a professional sports bettor myself...

And I will continue to provide this information for FREE each and every week for Football...and eventually every day for other sports...With the only information which will be available for purchase, being the "1" BEST "True Steam" BET OF THE WEEK...Because I believe that it's important to try and isolate the position that shows to offer the biggest edge based on my own ratings/lines...

So without further delay, let's get right to this weekend's NCAAFB Action...and see if we can CASH some more "True Steam" bets...VR

NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" : WEEK 11

1.) AKRON opened +13....Now +10.5

Most times, you will hear me say that the reason it is so difficult to truely make money trying to follow "steam"...is because many times it's extremely difficult, due to the various actions these betting syndicates make, to know for certain, not only which bets they like the most...but more importantly, IF they are even taking a position at all...But in this match-up, we have a perfect example, of how many times...with the proper reasoning, as handicappers, you can properly be sure that the "move" is an actual "steam play"...The reason for this is simple, this is a weekday match-up...which more importantly, will be broadcasted by ESPN...So the books and the Wiseguys alike, both know that the game will get some betting action, and even though the teams involved are not marquee schools..."Prime-Time" match-ups will always receive the most betting interest...So with the anticipation that the betting public will ultimately back the favorite, the Wiseguys could have easily gone ahead and allowed the public to possibly force the books to adjust...possibly to 14, which would make it now a 3-score game...And when the books initially offered a line on this game back on Sunday, although I found out it was on more than 1 outfit's "buy-sheet" due to a difference in opinion of ratings...I thought we would see the Wiseguys wait, because as of the close of the business day Sunday night...the sportsbooks didn't receive any sharp money on the Dog...But the Outfits were simply buying time for more outs to open up...and possibly, to get a better number if the books felt safe enough to adjust, as the public began betting the favorite...But then, on Tuesday morning...as soon as one Outfit went ahead and took a position on AKRON, it triggered the rest of those Syndicates who also had them on their radar, to move ahead and also take a position...So before you knew it., this line had moved all the way down to -11...But the Wiseguys weren't finished, because they came right back on Wednesday, looking to buy up all of the +11's that were available...So we can be sure, that they really see some value in backing AKRON...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Since the books went ahead and adjusted further, this time down to 10.5, we have seen some go back up to 11...Which looks to me like they are really trying to avoid getting to 10...Because as we touched on earlier, the books are expecting heavy public money to come in on the favorite on game-day...and they don't want to be in a position where BOTH, the Wiseguys and public bettors WIN...Also, by moving down to 10...it would immediately open up a middle opportunity for those Syndicates who got down at +13...to now come back and lay -10...giving themselves a 3pt middle...So I expect we will see this game stay steady at around 11, while those books who cater to public money and don't accept much sharp money...may go ahead and raise it some more...VR

2.) OHIO opened +1....Now OHIO -1

N Illinois opened as a 1pt road fav on Sunday, and the Wiseguys immediately bet OHIO +1...forcing the adjustment down to PK...Then, without much hesitation, the Outfits went ahead and bet OHIO at a PK...which opted most books to move them to a 1Pt favorite...Now we've covered before, that the Outfits love to be able to get BOTH teams in a match-up as DOGS...So I wanted to see whether or not, that would be the case in the game...Because if they did, then we would be able to chalk this up as a "middle" attempt...rather than a "True Position"...But here we are on Thursday, and that just hasn't been the case...And you can rest assured that this is a significant position for the Betting Syndicates because after speaking with some books, it appears that the betting public is actually betting the other side, N Ill...Now this match-up will not bring too much volume to the sportsbooks, so they will be forced to take a position as well...And nothing supports that more than the fact that we are seeing some of the books re-adjust this line down to a PK...which eliminates any "middle" opportunity...VR

LINE PREDICTION : The books are obviously going to hope that whatever volume they do get from the betting public, that it's on N ILL...This will offset some of the liability that they have on this game...And because I expect that they will...unless the Wiseguys send out another "Buy-Order" on OHIO, we will most likely see this number stay at around a PK...But if they do, by betting this "True Steam" bet now...you really should end up with the best number possible...VR

3.) BYU opened -7.5....Now -10

CRIS was first to put a line out on this match-up, and when they did at -7.5...they immediately were forced to move to -8, due to the Wiseguys laying the favorite...We then saw the majority of books open their line up at -8 also...Which is where it was at the close of Sunday...I believe the books were fine with this, because they expect plenty of 2-way action to be bet on this match-up by the public...But on Monday, the Syndicates shot down that dream, because they came in heavy and organized on BYU...The initial reaction from the books was to take it up to 8.5, but once again, the Wiseguys let them know that this mistake was going to cost them...And the Outfits went right back to work, laying all the -8.5's they could find...This forced some books to minimize their risk, by going straight to -10...While those who didn't, and opted for 1/2 pt line moves, continued to get "steamed" at -9 & -9.5...Which is why we are now looking at BYU -10, all across the board...VR

LINE PREDICTION : This is now at a very critical juncture, and I know for certain that the sportsbooks are holding their breaths...to see what the Outfits decide...Because they now have themselves a "middle" opportunity...But they've had that same opportunity for over 24hrs, and so far, none of the Wiseguys seems to want to attempt it...Which tells me that they believe the books made a huge error bringing this out at -7.5...Like I stated above, the books are getting plenty of 2-way action from the betting public...And at -10, and looking at the SU record of both teams, I believe that this trend will continue...Which means that the only liability the books should end up with, is from "steam"...Finally, I won't be surprised if we see at least one of the Outfits work that middle...And that would force a slight adjustment downwards, in an attempt to turn-off the others from following also...Regardless, the fact that they haven't gone ahead and worked that middle as of Thursday, when they know for sure the public money will be split...tells me just how much the Outfits feel they've gotten the best of it...VR

4.) HOU/MEM TOTAL opened 73....Now 75

The OVER is a position that the Outfits absolutely love...and I'll tell you why...Last year, during a handful of pod-casts...I explained why even though the BIG 12 was scoring so many points, the Outfits continued to bet the Under...Because I have moved "steam" for so many years, I can tell you for certain that the Outfits would almost blindly bet the Under on any NCAAFB match-up that had a Total of 70 or higher...It was explained to me as a simple case of probability...Where they believe that the likelyhood of a game having 70+ points scored, is low enough to make betting the Under profitable over time...And I know that we cashed more tickets than we trashed, so the reasoning seemed sound...But in all those years moving "steam", there were also occasions where we were told to bet the OVER, on a game with a total of 70 or higher...And I can tell you from experience that those bets we made on the OVER, had an even higher WIN%...than probably any other total bets that we made...So as soon as CRIS went ahead and put up the first total for this match-up, and they were immediately reprimanded by the Outfits for being too low...I knew right away that this was an extremely significant position, and as "True Steam" as you can get...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Now with that said, the sportsbooks are expecting the betting public to come in on the Under in a big way...And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this line drop some as we approach game-time...But you can be sure, that any adjustment will not be made based on the Wiseguys...Because once again, they could have simply waited for the bettors to force the books to lower this total...and ultimately gone OVER an even lower number...We shouldn't see this go higher, which is another example of why it's so difficult to make money trying to follow the Outfits, if you aren't EXACTLY sure which are "True Steam" moves...And this is one move most would have missed...VR