I'm in a football pool where they release the games and the point spread around Wednesday or Thursday, so I wait until Saturday to make my college picks because the point spread can obviously change by then. I'm looking for thoughts or insight on how to weigh which point spread shifts carry more weight. For example, is a 2 point shift in who is favored a better bet than a four point change in total points scored? My instinct is yes, since points favored is a smaller number, but I'm just trying to get a sense of how to decide which point shifts are better to follow. I'm not necessarily looking for an answer to the example I offered above, but rather a betting philosophy of how to best weight the different choices. Does this make any sense? I feel as though I'm not expressing this very clearly. Anyway, any thoughts or perspective would be greatly appreciated (especially since I can earn some good money doing this)
A big shift in the total early in the week could be becuase of bad weather or a injury to the QB it also takes far less money to move the line on a total than it does on the side.
Hi Banning, welcome to the site.
I personally would need to know a little bit more about this pool before I could dish out any advice
Michael, thanks for your note. I'm not sure what other information you might need about the pool that I was talking about in my original post, but I'll try. Basically the people involved in the pool get a listing of the college and pro football games to be played that week. This week we got the list late Wednesday, because of so many games yesterday and today. We have to select 15 picks; they can be to pick a particular team, or pick the total point over/under for that particular game.
As I mentioned in the post, I can see where the line obviously shifts in some of the games as the week progresses. There are some games where the point spread moves two points (or sometimes even more, but usually the biggest shift is a couple). The over/under line also sometimes shifts; the biggest shift is usually 3 - 3.5 points. When I'm trying to figure out which 15 games to select, i'm sometimes faced with going with a team where the point spread may have moved a point or two, or picking an over/under line that may have moved two or three points. I'm assuming that when a line (sorry if I'm not using the right terms here) moves from maybe a 2 point spread to a 3 point spread, percentage-wise that's a big shift. And if the over/under moves from, for example, 50 to 53, then that's a bigger move point-wise, but the percentage of the shift is obviously lower. And thus the question; is there a better "pick" in this sort of situation?
I don't know if there is a right answer here; if nothing else, I thought it was an interesting question to puzzle over. So far I've been using this "system" (not a very elaborate system), and after thirteen weeks my overall win percentage is 61%, which places me first in a group of about 100 people, but there are a few people nipping at my heels, so I'm just trying to refine my strategy to the degree possible. Sorry for the long post; if there is additional information you'd like to have, let me know Thanks for your thoughts.
Hey Banning,
So, are you asking is there an advantage to watching line movement in betting or something to that effect? You have to remember that books or vegas puts lines out to make the look "sexy" both ways. Therefore, the gamblers will bet both sides of the line to make it 50/50. Thus, vegas and the books will profit the juice and nothing else. The public moves the line in either direction depending on the amount of moeny being bet on each side. You can always track line movement right here at thespread or lots of other places on the net. You can also click on the matchup beside a game and see what the precntage is when the public moves the line. It states if there is an edge or not.
Hope this helps.
Short answer is yes, there is value in betting using line movement analysis. However, it's fairly difficult to be able to interpret those movements effectively at just a glance, in the home stretch of both seasons.
There are so many different things that go into line movements that finding a successful formula is something that takes a lot of research. Not all line movements are based exclusively on betting patterns now that most of the sports betting occurs not in Las Vegas, but online.
Believe it or not since online gambling has taken over sports betting you see quite a few things that online bookmakers do that Vegas would never do or even be allowed to do in some cases. The majority of the betting information available online is from online sports books, not Las Vegas sports books.
Online sports books will move the line artificially to coax action. Online sports books will take stands on games that Vegas would not. Some online sports books will actually bet into other sports books to take advantage of what they feel is a weak line or to lay off some of their action to reduce their exposure. Some sports books have people middling and scalping for them into other books.
So you can see where I am going with this. That was just a handful of the things I have known to happen over the years. That is why it's so difficult to get a really accurate system down by just glancing at line moves during the week.
My advice would be to stick with what got you to 61%. Don't worry about the people behind you just keep doing what you've been doing.
Here are some links on the site to help you with your handicapping
Odds Comparison
NFL: http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-betting-odds
NCAAF: http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-betting-odds
Public Betting Information
NFL: http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart
NCAAF: http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-public-betting-chart
Matchups
NFL: http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-matchups
NCAAF: http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-matchups
Trends
NFL: http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-trends
NCAAF: http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-college-football-trends