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Last Post by blade 14 years ago

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blade

(@blade)

Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

If the SOS of lower than 60 is the criteria, then I dont see any teams qualifing for the system.

The way I understand the criteria is such:

1. Use the top 60 Saragin rated teams.
2. Fade every team ATS whose SOS is 60 or worse.
3. If or unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is lower than thier own SOS.

So, if none of the top 60 Saragin rated teams have a SOS of 60 or worse we fade the team that has the lower SOS and play on the team that has the higher SOS. Yes, no maybe? Thoughts.

Exactly the way I understand it also, I will see if I can find somewhere else to confirm it.

Posted : December 9, 2009 6:35 pm

str82thebar

(@str82thebar)

Posts: 15

Active Member

here is a site I found with the strength of schedule posted and below are just the bowl teams. I have deleted teams not in bowls. www.solecismic.com
I left UCLA and ARMY in there for the Eaglebank Bowl against Temple

it is ranking,college,conference,record,#of games played, then the strength rating

2 Oregon PAC 10-2 12 76.9
4 Georgia SEC 7-5 12 76.2
6 Arizona PAC 8-4 12 74.8
7 Southern California PAC 8-4 12 74.6
8 UCLA PAC 6-6 12 74.6
9 Florida State ACC 6-6 12 73.6
10 Arkansas SEC 7-5 12 72.1
11 South Carolina SEC 7-5 12 70.9
13 Miami (Florida) ACC 9-3 12 70.6
15 Oregon State PAC 8-4 12 70.0
16 Alabama SEC 13-0 13 69.9
18 Connecticut BE 7-5 12 68.8
19 Virginia Tech ACC 9-3 12 68.6
21 Auburn SEC 7-5 12 68.3
22 Tennessee SEC 7-5 12 68.1
23 Oklahoma B12 7-5 12 68.0
24 Stanford PAC 8-4 12 67.8
25 Louisiana State SEC 9-3 12 67.6
27 Clemson ACC 8-5 13 66.5
28 California PAC 8-4 12 66.5
32 Minnesota B10 6-6 12 65.4
33 Georgia Tech ACC 11-2 13 65.2
34 Florida SEC 12-1 13 64.9
36 West Virginia BE 9-3 12 64.1
37 North Carolina ACC 8-4 12 63.6
39 Pittsburgh BE 9-3 12 62.4
41 South Florida BE 7-5 12 61.6
42 Cincinnati BE 12-0 12 61.4
43 Kentucky SEC 7-5 12 61.3
45 Texas B12 13-0 13 59.7
46 Texas A&M B12 6-6 12 59.7
49 Iowa B10 10-2 12 59.6
50 Texas Tech B12 8-4 12 59.2
51 Nebraska B12 9-4 13 59.0
53 Boston College ACC 8-4 12 58.6
54 Mississippi SEC 8-4 12 57.8
55 Michigan State B10 6-6 12 57.0
58 Oklahoma State B12 9-3 12 56.4
59 Ohio State B10 10-2 12 56.3
64 Missouri B12 8-4 12 54.5
65 Iowa State B12 6-6 12 54.4
67 East Carolina USA 9-4 13 53.6
68 Wisconsin B10 9-3 12 53.5
74 Central Florida USA 8-4 12 50.0
75 Marshall USA 6-6 12 50.0
77 Navy Ind 8-4 12 51.6
78 Utah MW 9-3 12 49.2
79 Fresno State WAC 8-4 12 48.9
80 Wyoming MW 6-6 12 48.7
81 Rutgers BE 8-4 12 48.6
82 Penn State B10 10-2 12 48.3
87 Houston USA 10-3 13 46.8
89 Bowling Green MAC 7-5 12 46.8
90 Air Force MW 7-5 12 46.6
91 Northwestern B10 8-4 12 46.3
92 Brigham Young MW 10-2 12 45.4
93 Southern Methodist USA 7-5 12 45.1
94 Texas Christian MW 12-0 12 45.1
96 Nevada WAC 8-4 12 44.1
97 Southern Mississippi USA 7-5 12 43.7
99 Troy SB 9-3 12 43.4
102 Idaho WAC 7-5 12 42.8
106 Ohio MAC 9-4 13 42.3
111 Central Michigan MAC 11-2 13 41.4
114 Army Ind 5-6 11 35.8
115 Northern Illlinois MAC 7-5 12 38.9
117 Boise State WAC 13-0 13 38.6
118 Temple MAC 9-3 12 34.8
119 Middle Tennessee State SB 9-3 12 34.8

Posted : December 12, 2009 2:50 pm

4frogster

(@4frogster)

Posts: 110

Estimable Member

Topic starter

str82thebar, thank you for all that work and thank you to everyone who has contributed. I will work in this the early part of next week, Monday thru Wednesday. It seems that we do have many teams that are under the bench mark of 60, it's bowl time and I guess this Saragin system will be put to the test again. GL to all.

Posted : December 13, 2009 1:05 am

str82thebar

(@str82thebar)

Posts: 15

Active Member

not a problem frogster--just hope the system comes thru for everyone. Know it won't work on all of the games, but if it comes thru on 60-70% of them then it is money in the bank. GL ALL

Posted : December 13, 2009 6:30 am

orso

(@orso)

Posts: 12

Active Member

good stuff frogster.....

Posted : December 13, 2009 7:41 am

michael-cash

(@michael-cash)

Posts: 7610

Member Moderator

Seeing a thread like this warms my heart. I was losing hope that anyone here would actually contribute anything.

4Frogster and Str82thebar email us your address and shirt size and I will send you out a TheSpread t-shirt.

There is a link at the top of the site to email us.

Thanks

Posted : December 13, 2009 9:59 am

gramps

(@gramps)

Posts: 14

Eminent Member

Thanks Frogster and all, looking forward to the results.

Posted : December 13, 2009 11:51 am

str82thebar

(@str82thebar)

Posts: 15

Active Member

Looks like some of the SOS numbers changed, so I redid everything. I have also set it up by bowl game. Hope this helps everyone

College Football 2009 through games of December 12 Saturday

saragin saragin record SOS SOS
rating # points RATING

53 Fresno State A = 74.46 8 4 68.20 (74)
99 Wyoming A = 63.35 6 6 69.68 (57)

52 Rutgers A = 74.85 8 4 64.22 (100)
62 Central Florida A = 71.99 8 4 66.65 (85)

67 Southern Miss A = 70.09 7 5 64.02 (101)
73 Middle Tennessee A = 68.65 9 3 60.60 (120)

29 BYU A = 79.55 10 2 68.09 (76)
15 Oregon State A = 82.63 8 4 74.63 (20)

36 Utah A = 77.94 9 3 68.21 (73)
33 California A = 79.02 8 4 74.96 (17)

89 SMU A = 66.26 7 5 65.95 (90)
56 Nevada A = 73.66 8 4 67.02 (81)

81 Marshall A = 66.63 6 6 68.10 (75)
77 Ohio University A = 68.41 9 4 63.29 (107)

30 North Carolina A = 79.48 8 4 72.05 (35)
19 Pittsburgh A = 82.03 9 3 71.20 (43)

40 Boston College A = 77.20 8 4 70.81 (48)
13 Southern California A = 83.11 8 4 76.23 (11)

21 Clemson A = 81.27 8 5 73.68 (25)
41 Kentucky A = 77.19 7 5 72.01 (38)

58 Texas A&M A = 72.86 6 6 71.24 (42)
28 Georgia A = 79.70 7 5 76.63 (5)

66 Temple A = 70.53 9 3 61.85 (113)
43 UCLA A = 76.59 6 6 76.24 (10)

11 Miami-Florida A = 83.91 9 3 74.82 (18)
37 Wisconsin A = 77.82 9 3 68.62 (69)

84 Idaho A = 66.48 7 5 66.68 (84)
79 Bowling Green A = 67.15 7 5 65.39 (93)

54 Navy A = 74.06 9 4 66.60 (86)
47 Missouri A = 75.82 8 4 70.70 (50)

24 Nebraska A = 80.50 9 4 70.81 (49)
14 Arizona A = 82.87 8 4 76.40 (7)

55 Air Force A = 73.81 7 5 65.80 (92)
46 Houston A = 75.94 10 3 64.70 (97)

23 Oklahoma A = 80.93 7 5 72.63 (31)
17 Stanford A = 82.12 8 4 74.74 (19)

64 Minnesota A = 70.90 6 6 73.07 (30)
74 Iowa State A = 68.64 6 6 68.49 (70)

7 Virginia Tech A = 87.09 9 3 76.17 (12)
26 Tennessee A = 80.02 7 5 73.57 (26)

68 Northwestern A = 69.98 8 4 64.99 (94)
25 Auburn A = 80.09 7 5 75.35 (14)

44 Florida State A = 76.49 6 6 76.65 (4)
27 West Virginia A = 80.01 9 3 72.29 (33)

20 Penn State A = 81.52 10 2 66.92 (82)
10 LSU A = 85.57 9 3 75.14 (16)

12 Ohio State A = 83.60 10 2 69.40 (59)
5 Oregon A = 88.68 10 2 76.69 (3)

6 Cincinnati A = 88.21 12 0 69.18 (63)
2 Florida A = 93.58 12 1 73.53 (28)

85 Northern Illinois A = 66.45 7 5 59.88 (123)
50 South Florida A = 75.04 7 5 69.19 (62)

39 Connecticut A = 77.20 7 5 72.05 (36)
34 South Carolina A = 78.92 7 5 76.39 (8)

32 Oklahoma State A = 79.24 9 3 70.35 (52)
22 Mississippi A = 81.03 8 4 71.84 (40)

51 East Carolina A = 75.03 9 4 69.23 (61)
16 Arkansas A = 82.49 7 5 75.43 (13)

31 Texas Tech A = 79.26 8 4 69.78 (56)
57 Michigan State A = 73.05 6 6 70.37 (51)

8 Boise State A = 86.58 13 0 64.49 (98)
4 TCU A = 89.49 12 0 66.89 (83)

18 Iowa A = 82.04 10 2 70.82 (47)
9 Georgia Tech A = 86.26 11 2 75.15 (15)

69 Troy A = 69.92 9 3 63.45 (106)
38 Central Michigan A = 77.47 11 2 62.17 (111)

1 Alabama A = 98.22 13 0 74.61 (21)
3 Texas A = 91.47 13 0 71.15 (44)

Posted : December 13, 2009 12:38 pm

RESCUE

(@RESCUE)

Posts: 0

New Member Guest

1. Use teams listed only in the top 60 Sagrin Ratings. Let's call it Team Durrrr.
2. If Team Durrrr has a SOS of 60+ or worse then fade Team Durrrr...unless
3. Team Durrrr's opponent has a worse SOS, then you play on Team Durrrr instead of fading it.

TCU (4, 84 SOS) over Boise State (8, 98 SOS) Play TCU
Florida (2, 27 SOS) over Cincinnati (6, 63 SOS) Fade Cin
LSU (10, 16 SOS) over Penn State (20, 83 SOS) Fade PSU
Oregon State (15, 21 SOS) over BYU (29, 77 SOS) Fade BYU
California (33, 17 SOS) over Utah (35, 73 SOS) Fade Utah
Miami-FL (11, 18) over Wisconsin (36, 68 SOS) Fade Wisky
Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS) Fade CMU
Air Force (55, 92 SOS) over Houston (46, 97 SOS) Fade Hou
Arkansas (16, 13 SOS) over East Carolina (50, 61 SOS) Fade ECU
South Florida (51, 62 SOS) over Northern Illinois (87, 121 SOS) Play USF
Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS) Fade Rut
Wyoming (99, 57 SOS) over Fresno State (57, 74 SOS) Fade FSU
Missouri (47, 50 SOS) over Navy (54, 74 SOS) Fade Navy
Nevada (56, 82 SOS) over SMU (88, 90 SOS) Play Nevada

Example when it is a fade:
Step 1. #47 Mizzou in top 60 of Sagrin Ratings.
Step 2. Mizzou does not qualify for for a fade or play as SOS is 60
Step 3. Navy's opponent (Mizzou) does not have a worse SOS so you would still continue to fade Navy as you did in Step 2.

Example when it is play on:
Step 1. #56 Nevada in top 60 of Sagrin Ratings.
Step 2. Nevada qualifies for a fade as SOS > 60
Step 3. However, Nevada's opponent (SMU) has a worse SOS than Nevada so now instead of fading Nevada you will PLAY on Nevada.

I hope this clears up the confusion for everyone who had questions about this system. I've been using a similar SOS system (weighted average in various categories) for the past 5 years and it has produced similar results as this system.

durrrr

i put this up last year

Posted : December 14, 2009 9:14 am

blade

(@blade)

Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

TCU (4, 84 SOS) over Boise State (8, 98 SOS) Play TCU
Florida (2, 27 SOS) over Cincinnati (6, 63 SOS) Fade Cin
LSU (10, 16 SOS) over Penn State (20, 83 SOS) Fade PSU
Oregon State (15, 21 SOS) over BYU (29, 77 SOS) Fade BYU
California (33, 17 SOS) over Utah (35, 73 SOS) Fade Utah
Miami-FL (11, 18) over Wisconsin (36, 68 SOS) Fade Wisky
Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS) Fade CMU
Air Force (55, 92 SOS) over Houston (46, 97 SOS) Fade Hou
Arkansas (16, 13 SOS) over East Carolina (50, 61 SOS) Fade ECU
South Florida (51, 62 SOS) over Northern Illinois (87, 121 SOS) Play USF
Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS) Fade Rut
Wyoming (99, 57 SOS) over Fresno State (57, 74 SOS) Fade FSU
Missouri (47, 50 SOS) over Navy (54, 74 SOS) Fade Navy
Nevada (56, 82 SOS) over SMU (88, 90 SOS) Play Nevada

Thanks RESCUE 8)

Posted : December 14, 2009 9:49 am

badzo

(@badzo)

Posts: 16

Active Member

Wait a minute now... ???

Shouldn't high SOS rating = better opponents

In that one Solecismic software page, Cent Florida has SOS 74 and rating 55.7 (ranked #62 by Sagarin), Rutgers has SOS 79 and 66.4 rating (ranked #52 by Sagarin).

Let's say for the sake of argument that UCF is ranked #60 by Sagarin, then they would be a fade, and play would be Rutgers -2.5 ?

Posted : December 14, 2009 1:09 pm

rbacks3

(@rbacks3)

Posts: 5

Active Member

The term "fade" on Navy means go the other way,is that what your saying???

Posted : December 14, 2009 6:13 pm

4frogster

(@4frogster)

Posts: 110

Estimable Member

Topic starter

I just want to say thank you - thank you - thank you to all who contributed and to all who asked questions. Like Michael Cash said, seeing a thread like this warms his heart...man that is a beautiful thing. Thank you RESCUE for clarifying this system, turns out you were the one that posted this last year and RESCUE did all the work for us. The bowl games to play are listed. Play the ones he says to play and fade the ones he says to fade. RESCUE I have forwarded my e-mail address to Michael Cash in the hopes that it will be forwarded to you. I would like to talk to you a little more about this Sagarin System. Good luck to us all this bowl season, I will be playing the bowl games from this system with the anticipation that.....the paper will be coming my way.

Posted : December 16, 2009 11:06 am

slick-nick

(@slick-nick)

Posts: 3

New Member

Some of these strength of schedules have changed and actually would change the outcomes of some of these games based on this system and some others would be no-plays now

Posted : December 16, 2009 9:58 pm

blade

(@blade)

Posts: 318493

Illustrious Member

TCU (4, 84 SOS) over Boise State (8, 98 SOS) Play TCU
Florida (2, 27 SOS) over Cincinnati (6, 63 SOS) Fade Cin
LSU (10, 16 SOS) over Penn State (20, 83 SOS) Fade PSU
Oregon State (15, 21 SOS) over BYU (29, 77 SOS) Fade BYU
California (33, 17 SOS) over Utah (35, 73 SOS) Fade Utah
Miami-FL (11, 18) over Wisconsin (36, 68 SOS) Fade Wisky
Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS) Fade CMU
Air Force (55, 92 SOS) over Houston (46, 97 SOS) Fade Hou
Arkansas (16, 13 SOS) over East Carolina (50, 61 SOS) Fade ECU
South Florida (51, 62 SOS) over Northern Illinois (87, 121 SOS) Play USF
Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS) Fade Rut
Wyoming (99, 57 SOS) over Fresno State (57, 74 SOS) Fade FSU
Missouri (47, 50 SOS) over Navy (54, 74 SOS) Fade Navy
Nevada (56, 82 SOS) over SMU (88, 90 SOS) Play Nevada

Some of these strength of schedules have changed and actually would change the outcomes of some of these games based on this system and some others would be no-plays now

Thanks Slick Nick

At this point the only ATS plays are TCU - USF - Nevada Correct?

Seems like slim pickings's this year compared to the last few years.

Posted : December 16, 2009 10:55 pm