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Need Some Veteran Advice

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(@slapaheel)
Posts: 15
Active Member
Topic starter
 

I'm in a great position (i think ???)....I have a HUGE 6 team parlay with ONLY Washington +7.5 left...I already put down an "offset" bet on Philly -7.5 to cover the cost of the parlay....there is no way I can lose....this is one of the rare occasions where the half a point is going to backfire on the book....now I'm thinking about parlaying Philly -7.5 / OVER 37....Is the over safe? Or should I put TWO parlays in on Philly -7.5 & both the over AND the under? It sounds strange but the 6 team parlay is HUGE...advice please...thanks in advance

 
Posted : October 25, 2009 11:28 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
 

Don't mess around with any parlays it could just cut into your profit,if anything bet a little more on Philly and leave the parlays only.

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 12:42 am
(@michael-cash)
Posts: 7610
Member Moderator
 

Fuck parlays.

This is the one week out of the last 520 where some people might actually win.

If consulted prior I would of told you NOT to bet a 6 team parlay but since it's way too late for that I would say hedge with a straight bet.

Since you haven't even won this parlay yet hedging with a parlay is not real smart IMO.

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 9:04 am
(@slapaheel)
Posts: 15
Active Member
Topic starter
 

Agreed, I normally stay away from parlays but I was up so much after Saturday that I put it in as a "joke" and to partly cover some of my str8 bets...lucky me I guess...i have a cap on the amount I can wager so my back up bet won't come close to what the parlay pays out....therefore I'm just covering the cost of the parlay and hoping for a Washington cover....thanks for the help

and btw

Have you seen the new lines yet?! They are insane - we have a -16.5 in the NFL and a bunch of -30-somes in NCAA...Vegas must have gotten murdered this week because those lines look ridiculous...I may wait a week and let things even out, but who am I kidding - already got a c-note on ECU...geez

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 12:56 pm
(@michael-cash)
Posts: 7610
Member Moderator
 

Agreed, I normally stay away from parlays but I was up so much after Saturday that I put it in as a "joke" and to partly cover some of my str8 bets...lucky me I guess...

If that's the story you tell yourself to make all the losing parlays not sting so bad that's fine with me but I'm not buying it.

Last week was a good week to bet parlays, I'm not disputing that. But last week is like an eclipse, only comes around a couple times in your life.

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 1:07 pm
(@slapaheel)
Posts: 15
Active Member
Topic starter
 

you're right...when I first got started I was sucked in by the huge odds of the large parlays, but over time and looking back on my own trends (luckily I have an online account and can look back on my history)....I rarely hit anything over a two or three team parlay, but I still don't see the harm in putting out a flyer now and again, especially if your up...in fact I LOVE 2 team parlays & teasers and generally do quite well on them...i usually just parlay winners vs losers, moneylines vs covers and try and stay away from overs & unders...this may not be the best strategy, but I have been up on the book all year, and that was before this weekend...my favorite parlays are 2 team NHL and NCAA hockey...the disparity between the good and bad teams (especially non-conference) has always been easy for me to read...plus it seems like Vegas always likes to stick to trends in the NHL, while ignoring which teams are hot or which goalie is doing well, injuries, last minute line changes, etc...but thanks for the help and I really do appreciate the site...i don't use it to make my final decisions but it is a great resource that compiles more data than I knew existed in an easy to read format...thanks again and keep up the great work

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 3:47 pm
(@slapaheel)
Posts: 15
Active Member
Topic starter
 

wow - now another wrinkle...I can get the Skins at +8.5 right now...it may go to +9 before the game...will putting in another bet on the Skins +8.5/9 set me up for a nice middle or just cut into my winnings even more??

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 3:57 pm
(@samcro)
Posts: 21
Eminent Member
 

I agree with the others and think you should just put a straight play on Philly. It will work out for you either way.

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 4:49 pm
(@michael-cash)
Posts: 7610
Member Moderator
 

What are you trying to middle? The parlay and a straight bet? Not sure what you are asking here but from what you told us I don't see any opportunity for any middling.

As I mentioned before you haven't even won this parlay yet so I wouldn't advise adding more exotic wagers.

The only way to guarantee a profit is to hedge with a straight bet. Anything other then that you risk losing your parlay and anything else you were to bet.

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 5:00 pm
(@slapaheel)
Posts: 15
Active Member
Topic starter
 

Over just sweaked by....i wish i would have parlayed, but the over was actually lucky...thanks for the advice....better safe than sorry

 
Posted : October 26, 2009 11:13 pm
(@michael-cash)
Posts: 7610
Member Moderator
 

Over just sweaked by....i wish i would have parlayed, but the over was actually lucky...thanks for the advice....better safe than sorry

I thought you normally stay away from parlays?

😉

 
Posted : October 27, 2009 6:14 am
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