What Bettors Need to Know: Gator Bowl
Michigan vs. Mississippi State (-3.5, 59.5)
The Skinny:
When first announced, this looked like a battle between two coaches who might not be at their respective schools for much longer. One, Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez, is on the hot seat after another down year in Ann Arbor. Brought in three years ago to resurrect a program that had slipped to 9-4 in Lloyd Carr’s final season, Rodriguez is now hoping to keep his job after his team faded down the stretch again and got blasted by Ohio State in its final regular season game.
Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen was rumored to be on the move too. He's considered a hot commodity after turning the Bulldogs into a top-25 team and leading them into their second bowl game in the last 10 years. His name was mentioned in connection to the Miami and Florida openings, but Mullen appears to be settled in Starkville for the time being.
Rodriguez's future, however, is yet to be determined.
Michigan’s Edge:
The Wolverines often need to outscore teams to win and quarterback Denard Robinson has been capable of doing that by himself at times this season. The Big Ten Player of the Year, Robinson set the FBS single-season rushing record for a quarterback with 1,643 yards and ranks third nationally in total offense at 329.9 yards per game.
Mississippi State’s Edge:
The running game. Running back Vick Ballard and quarterback Chris Relf could eat up chunks of yardage against the Wolverines' porous defense, keeping Robinson off the field. One star of that running game is offensive tackle Derek Sherrod, a possible NFL draft pick and the anchor to a rushing attack that averages 215.8 yards per game.
The Quarterbacks:
The sophomore Robinson took over for Tate Forcier at the beginning of the season and has passed for 2,316 yards and 16 touchdowns in addition to his gaudy rushing numbers. He is completing 62 percent of his passes and averaging more than 9 yards per attempt.
The Bulldogs' Relf will be going up against the 111th-ranked passing defense in the nation. Relf came on at the end of the season, passing for a season-high 288 yards and three touchdowns in a win over rival Ole Miss on Nov. 27. He also rushed for 683 yards and four touchdowns in 2010.
NFL Prospects:
Michigan — C David Molk, G Steve Schilling, OLB Jonas Mouton, S Troy Woolfork, ILB Obi Ezeh, NT Mike Martin. Mississippi State — OT Derek Sherrod, DE Pernell McPhee, OLB Kenneth Wright.
Bowl history:
Michigan will be playing it’s first bowl under Rodriguez and is 19-20 all-time in bowl games. A four-year losing streak was snapped in the 2007 Capital One Bowl, when the Wolverines sent Lloyd Carr out with a 41-35 win over Florida.
Mississippi State is 7-6 all-time, having last played in the 2007 Liberty Bowl and earning a 10-3 win over Central Florida.
Etc.:
Many believe an embarrassing performance against the Bulldogs could be the final straw for Rodriguez. Special teams are also a big concern for the Wolverines going into New Year’s Day.
Game of the day: TCU vs. Wisconsin
TCU vs. Wisconsin (+3, 57.5)
THE SKINNY:
Outside of the national championship, this is one of the most anticipated matchups of the bowl season. Texas Christian University (12-0) completed its second consecutive undefeated regular season, and has a chance to make a major statement against one of the Big Ten’s best, Wisconsin (11-1).
TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has put together another remarkable season, and the Frogs have the top-ranked defense in the country.
Wisconsin finished the season strong, too, winning its last seven games. Perhaps more impressively, the Badgers scored 83, 48 and 70 points in the final three weeks of the regular season. A standout offensive line created running lanes for the trio of James White, Montee Ball and John Clay, and gave quarterback Scott Tolzien plenty of time to dissect defenses.
WISCONSIN’S EDGE:
The Badgers’ offense is playing as well as any in the country. During their seven-game winning streak to close out the regular season, the Badgers averaged 48.3 points. The Wisconsin offensive line may be the best in the country, and the Badgers have a talented corps of running backs to take advantage of it. Defensively, the Badgers have shown a knack for forcing turnovers with 23 takeaways this season.
TCU’S EDGE:
Despite an unbeaten record and a lofty BCS ranking, TCU enters the game with something to prove. The Badgers, after all, come from a big-time conference, and have played well of late. But TCU has carved out a competitive program in the talent-rich state of Texas, and has NFL-caliber players on both sides of the ball. Jeremy Kerley is a game-changer on offense and special teams, Dalton is a proven winner and, statistically, the Frogs have the nation’s best defense.
THE QUARTERBACKS:
Wisconsin senior quarterback Scott Tolzien has shown he’s one of the most accurate passers in the nation, leading the country in completion percentage (74.3) and posting the fourth-best quarterback rating (169.8).
TCU’s Dalton is the winningest quarterback in school history, and has led the Frogs to back-to-back BCS bowls. This year, Dalton threw for more than 2,600 yards with 26 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He had at least one touchdown pass in every game this year, too.
NFL PROSPECTS:
Wisconsin – OT Gabe Carimi; TE Lance Kendricks; OG John Moffitt; QB Scott Tolzien; SS Jay Valai. TCU – OT Marcus Cannon; OLB Wayne Daniels; QB Andy Dalton; C Jake Kirkpatrick; FS Tejay Johnson; WR Jeremy Kerley.
BOWL HISTORY:
Wisconsin is 11-10 all-time in bowls, and will be making its ninth straight bowl appearance. The Badgers won the Champs Sports Bowl last year. They are back in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 2000 and the seventh time in school history. The Badgers have won their last three Rose Bowl games.
TCU is 11-14-1 all-time in bowls, but 7-4 in bowl games under Gary Patterson. After winning four consecutive bowl games, the Frogs fell to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl last season.
Etc.:
Wisconsin and TCU have met once before on the gridiron, playing to a 14-14 tie at Wisconsin in 1970. … The Badgers are 3-3 all-time in the Rose Bowl. … TCU is facing a Big Ten opponent for the first time since a 48-45 double-overtime victory over Northwestern in 2004 season opener.
BETTING TRENDS
The over is 7-1-1 in the Badgers' last eight games but 0-6-1 in the Frogs' last seven bowl games.
TCU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with winning records and 4-1 in its last five contests as an underdog.
What Bettors Need to Know: Fiesta Bowl
Connecticut vs. Oklahoma (-16.5, 54.5)
THE SKINNY:
The Fiesta Bowl meeting between the Big 12 champion Sooners and the Big East champion Huskies is the biggest mismatch of the BCS bowls on paper. The Sooners (11-2) head to Glendale, Ariz., as double-digit favorites. Bob Stoops’ team capped the regular season by beating four straight bowl teams, highlighted by a dramatic comeback win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game.
UConn (8-4) also finished strong and sneaks into the BCS party despite having twice as many losses as Boise State and Michigan State combined. The Huskies recovered from consecutive ugly losses to Rutgers (27-24) and Louisville (26-0) in October to win their last five games. UConn also has a 30-16 loss to Temple on its resume.
OKLAHOMA’S EDGE:
Oklahoma’s talented young secondary blossomed down the stretch and presents a severe test for a UConn passing offense that ranks 113th in efficiency. The Sooners picked off eight of their 17 interceptions in the final four games and finished seventh nationally in turnover margin.
UCONN’S EDGE:
Running back Jordan Todman leads the Huskies offense and will press an Oklahoma run defense that allowed 151 rushing yards per game. Todman finished second in the nation in rushing, averaging 143 yards per game.
The Huskies could have an advantage in field position, as well. UConn is sixth in the nation in kickoff returns. Oklahoma allowed three kickoff return touchdowns this season, including one in each of its losses.
THE QUARTERBACKS:
Oklahoma sophomore Landry Jones was one of only three quarterbacks to throw for more than 4,000 yards this season. Hawaii’s Bryant Moniz and Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden are the others. Jones, 6-foot-4 pocket passer, will enter next season among the Heisman favorites.
UConn’s Zach Frazer has experienced a bumpy senior season, throwing just five touchdowns with four interceptions in an injury-plagued campaign. He lost the starting spot in preseason camp to sophomore Cody Endres, but regained it after Endres was suspended to start the season.
Frazer missed two games in October with a knee injury, before returning to start the final five games, all of which were wins.
NFL PROSPECTS:
Oklahoma – OLB Jeremy Beal; RB DeMarco Murray; WR Ryan Broyles; S Quinton Carter. UConn – FB Anthony Sherman; OLB Larence Wilson; RB Jordan Todman.
BOWL HISTORY:
Oklahoma is 25-17-1 all-time in bowls, but has lost of three its last four postseason appearances, as well as its last three trips to the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners are 5-6 in bowls overall under Stoops, who has his team in a BCS bowl for the eighth time in his 12-year tenure.
This is UConn’s fourth straight bowl appearance under coach Randy Edsall. The Huskies upset South Carolina 20-7 in last season’s PajaJohns.com Bowl to improve to 3-1 all-time in bowl games.
ETC.:
Edsall emerged as a candidate for the Miami (Fla.) coaching position in early December ... Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson was hired as the new head coach at Indiana. Oklahoma quarterbacks coach Josh Heupel will call plays for the Sooners against the UConn.
TRENDS
UConn is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall.
Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.
The under is 5-1 in the Huskies' last six games as underdogs and 7-3 in the Sooners' last 10 non-conference games.
Tips and Trends
TCU Horned Frogs vs Wisconsin Badgers
HORNED FROGS: (-3, O/U 58.5) TCU will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight, because they believe they should be playing in the BCS Championship game. The Horned Frogs are a perfect 12-0 SU this season, one of 3 undefeated teams in the nation. TCU is also 7-5 ATS overall this year. TCU was 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS away from home this season. Tonight will mark just the 2nd time this season they are just a single digit favorite. The Horned Frogs are known for their defense, as they led the nation allowing just 11.4 PPG. Only 3 opponents scored more than 17 PTS against TCU this year. Offensively, the Horned Frogs averaged 43.3 PPG this year, 4th best in the country. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. TCU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. TCU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a favorite up to a field goal.
Under is 6-0-1 last 7 bowl games.
Key Injuries - QB Andy Dalton (elbow) is probable.
Projected Score: 28 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
BADGERS: Wisconsin just might be the hottest team in the nation. The Badgers have been simply dominant over the past few months, especially offensively. The Badgers are 11-1 SU this season, with their lone loss coming on the road against another 1 loss team in Michigan St. Wisconsin is also 7-5 ATS overall this year. Wisconsin is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS away from home this season. The Badgers are a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this year. Wisconsin averages 43.3 PPG this year, 4th best in the nation. However, in their past 3 games alone, the Badgers have scored a total of 201 points. Wisconsin features a running game that averages 247 YPG rushing. Defensively, the Badgers allow 20.5 PPG, 29th best in the country. The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Wisconsin is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the MWC.
Badgers are 6-0 ATS last 6 games overall.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Key Injuries - LB Shaq Wilson (hamstring) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
Oklahoma Sooners vs UCONN Huskies
SOONERS: (-17, O/U 55) Oklahoma beat both Oklahoma St. and Nebraska to make their way to the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners were 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS overall this season, leading to a #7 national ranking. Both of the Sooners losses this year came on the road, where they are just 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Oklahoma is 3-3 ATS as a double digit favorite overall this year. QB Landry Jones leads an elite passing offense that is averaging more than 335 YPG passing, 4th best in the nation. Overall, the Sooners are averaging 36.4 PPG this season. Defensively, the Sooners aren't as potent as they typically are. Oklahoma is allowing 21.9 PPG, just 35th best in the nation this year. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as the listed favorite. Oklahoma is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
Sooners are 15-7 ATS last 22 games as a favorite more than 10 PTS.
Under is 13-3 last 16 games played on grass.
Key Injuries - DL Casey Walker (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 31
HUSKIES: Some people consider this Connecticut team to be the worst team ever to play in a BCS game. Others think the Big East Champions should be playing before New Years Day. Regardless, the Huskies are 8-4 both SU and ATS this year, and playing Oklahoma in a high profile game. The Huskies come into tonight underrated, a big reason this team went 8-4 ATS this season. UCONN is 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this year. The Huskies are 4-2 both SU and ATS this season as the listed underdog. Tonight marks the 1st time this year that the Huskies are a double digit underdog. UCONN has had the same exact result both SU and ATS in each game they've played this year. RB Jordan Todman will get the ball over and over again, trying to keep the high powered Oklahoma offense off the field. Todman rushed for 1,574 YDS and 14 TD's this season. The Huskies average 26.9 PPG while allowing 19.8 PPG this season. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Connecticut is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Connecticut is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Huskies are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games played on grass.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as an underdog of more than 10 points.
Key Injuries - CB Alex Kantor (head) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)
Ticket City Bowl
Texas Tech's bowl history isn't relevant because of uniqueness of Mike Leach's system, which is now elsewhere, but Tech did win three of last four bowls, with average total in those games, 74.3- they were favored in their last five bowls (1-4 vs spread). Tech's DC was let go after it came out he was trying to get a job at Florida. Tuberville is 6-3 as head coach in bowls. Its hard to lay points with a defense as slow as Tech's.
Northwestern lost its QB at end of regular season and was typically bad from that point on, losing 48-27/70-23 in its last two tames. Wildcats lost their last five bowls, going 3-1 vs spread in last four, losing last two years in OT- they've allowed average of 42.4 ppg in last five bowls (were underdog in all five), Interested to see of coaches can get their young backup QB ready to play better than he did in November.
This is a new bowl, so no history; Texas Tech figures to have big edge in crowd support, seeing as game is in Texas and all. Northwestern hasn't won a bowl game since 1948, losing their last seven bowl games.
Outback Bowl
Penn State won four of last five bowl games, beating Tennessee (20-10), LSU (19-17); only loss was to USC in Rose Bowl. Lions lost four games this year by 20+ points; they're 2-3 as an underdog. Weird to see a Penn State team that allowed 21+ points in each of its last eight games. Lions have QB issues; McGloin is the better of the two now, but Bolden is the future. Paterno is 7-2 vs spread in his last nine bowls vs SEC teams.
This is Urban Meyer's swan song with Florida, which had disappointing 7-5 season in first year after Tebow left; Gators won/covered four of last five bowls, scoring 36.4 ppg, with two of those games for national title. Florida lost by 22 to South Carolina, 24 to Florida State in its last three games, a bad sign. Gators allowed 31+ points in four of last six games vs D-I opponents. Florida uses three kids at QB because starter isn't a good enough runner to run the spread properly.
Penn State's punter is hurt; Florida's kicker is hurt, so miscues on those special teams are likely. Underdogs covered four of the last six Outback Bowls; Penn State is 3-0 in this bowl. Weird that the 45-year old coach is retiring, and the 84-year old coach isn't. Wouldn't give points here.
Capital One Bowl
Michigan State lost its last four bowl games, three by 10+ points- they were underdogs in all four games (1-3 vs spread); State lost to Georgia in this game two years ago, 24-12. Spartans had a great year, winning share of league title for first time in 20 yesrs; this is their third January bowl in last 21 years, so they'll be plenty excited. State is 2-1 as underdog, with only loss 37-6 at Iowa- they upset both Wisconsin/Michigan.
Alabama is 3-2 in last five bowls, 2-1 under Saban, who also used to be Michigan State's coach (he even made Tony Banks look good). Current Spartan coach Dantonio worked for Saban in East Lansing. Saban has a 5-6 career record in bowls. Bama has a senior QB and star RB Ingram is from Michigan, so think that even though Tide is dosappointed after big loss to Auburn in Iron Bowl (led 24-0), they'll be fired up for this game.
Favorites are 2-5 vs spread in last seven Capital One Bowls, but one of the favorites covered in OT; four of last five totals in this bowl were 36 or less points, strange for a warm weather bowl.
Gator Bowl
Michigan is in bowl for first time since 2007; they lost four of last five bowls, allowing 32+ points in last four; average total in last five bowls is 66.3. Wolverines have explosive Robinson at QB but his backup Forcier isn't playing here- Michigan lost five of last seven games; their defense is hideous- they allowed 65 points in one of their wins!!! Michigan is 0-8 vs spread in its last eight games, 2-6 vs spread when they're favored.
Mississippi State gave coach Mullen a $2.6M/year contract this week, thats how quickly he revitalized their program. Bulldogs are in bowl for first time since '07 and second time in last decade- they've won last three bowls, despite being underdog in all three. State is 5-1 vs spread as fave vs D-I opponents; they beat Georgia by 12, Florida by 3, but lost in OT to Arkansas, to Alabama 30-10 and tough 17-14 game to Auburn.
Underdogs covered last four Gator Bowls, winning last two SU; average total in last seven Gator Bowls is 58.3. This is first time in at least seven years an SEC team has played in this bowl, which is site of the Georgia-Florida game every year.
Rose Bowl
Wisconsin doesn't often have the same starting QB two years in a row, but they do this year, and they've crushed teams, winning their last four games, all by 20+ points. Badgers are 3-2 in last five bowls, all of which were played in Florida; only one of those five bowls had more than 38 points scored. Badgers are a bowl underdog for sixth year in row. Only game Wisconsin lost was to 11-1 Michigan State; they beat Arizona St. and Iowa by a single point each.
TCU beat Oregon State 30-21, Baylor 45-10, so they've beaten couple of pretty good BCS teams; Horned Frogs won four of their last five bowls, splitting pair with Boise State in last two bowls- this is sixth year in row Horned Frogs are bowl favorite, but Rose Bowl is uncharted territory, as is playing a huge Wisconsin offensive line. Badgers will try to bully the smallish TCU defense.
Last time the Rose Bowl didn't have a Pac-10 team was 2004, the Texas 38-37 win over USC (Young/Leinart game); average total in last six Rose Bowls is 62.5. Underdogs covered last four Rose Bowls that USC wasn't favored to win.
Fiesta Bowl
UConn is in its first BCS bowl but had trouble selling tickets; they're in fourth straight bowl and are 3-1 in bowls overall, winning 38-20/20-7 in last two bowls. This is a huge step up for their progam. Huskies started out year poorly, losing 30-10 at Michigan, then losing to Temple after a I-AA win, but they won their last five games after tossing their QB off the team. Three of those last five wins were by three or less points.
Oklahoma has history of failure in these games, losing three of last four bowls, losing twice as 7-point favorites, both in this game- underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in their last five bowls. Sooners' last two bowl wins are by 4-3 points. Oklahoma played seven games away from home this season, and allowed 29 ppg in those games, a surprisingly high average. All seven of those opponents scored 20+ points, so Oklahoma's defense isn't what it has been in previous seasons.
Edsall is a good coach who has every motivational tool on his side; most experts scoff at the Big East, everyone thinks UConn is a hoops school, no one gives them a chance to win. Washington's win over Nebraska is a warning to Oklahoma that they better come ready to play. Underdogs covered last four Fiesta Bowls; they're 4-3 SU in last seven.