New Years Day Service Plays

THE GOLD SHEET

OUTBACK BOWL
WISCONSIN (9-3) vs. TENNESSEE (9-4)
Tuesday, January 1 Day at Tampa, FL (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Wisconsin11 8-3 4-7 29 23 197 213 38-24-14 141 207 30-15-15 -1 1.3 11.4
Tennessee13 9-4 8-4 33 28 145 255 53-18-31 163 245 44-14-24 +6 2.6 8.5

Tennessee 31 - Wisconsin 24—

Both had higher expectations and hopes for
this season, but Wisconsin finished 4th in the Big Ten after a 12-1 mark in ’06
and being ranked No. 5 in October, while Tennessee lost the SEC title game
against LSU following a roller-coaster campaign that saw UT alternately lose
and win by more than 14 points in four September games. However, playing on
New Year’s Day (even if it is the early Outback Bowl) can hardly be considered
an unsuccessful season. The Badgers’ year was marked by offensive
inconsistency caused in succession by the adjustment of new starting QB Tyler
Donovan, injuries to their top two wide receivers, and an injury to star RB P.J.
Hill. Donovan finished the season with 2452 YP, 58%, 16 TD passes & 10 ints.
Hill should be close to 100% for this game after being held to 1104 YR (1569 in
’06) due to nagging groin & leg problems, and backup Lance Smith-Williams,
who was prohibited from traveling with the team during the season, will be
available for this game. Top WR Luke Swan’s torn hamstring vs. Illinois ended his
season, although 6-4 sr. Paul Hubbard returned from a knee injury to play in the last
5 games and had an excellent day in upset of Michigan, catching 7 passes for 134
yards, but was held without a catch in finale against Minnesota. All-American TE
Travis Beckum (73 catches) was the main receiver during the year, although he
could still be feeling the effects of a shoulder injury. UW won’t be 100% on defense,
as CB Allen Langford is being disciplined and his backup is true frosh Aaron
Henry. Jr. DT Jason Chapman was injured against Ohio State and is also out.
Tennessee owns a couple of edges that point us toward the Vols. QB Erik
Ainge has had a magnificent season, throwing for 3123 yards & 29 TDs,
including 12 in the last 3 games. The ground game was potent as well, as Arian
Foster gained 1162 yards & scored 14 TDs despite operating behind an OL that lost
starting OT Eric Young after he was injured against South Carolina. The offense
will also be without leading receiver Lucas Taylor (73 recs., 1000 yds.), who ran into
academic problems. On the plus side, highly respected offensive coordinator
David Cutcliffe will direct the attack one more time before taking on the head
coaching assignment at Duke, and recent return to action of 6-8 TE Brad Cottam
(94 rec. yds. in last two games) will serve Ainge well as another primary target.
Phil Fulmer’s defense improved significantly as the season wore on, allowing
just 23 ppg in the last 6 games after yielding more than 32 ppg in the first 7.
Academics took a couple of contributors on defense after the SEC
Championship game, as starting LB Rico McCoy and DT Demonte Bolden were
ruled ineligible along with Taylor (and a few other bit part players). However, the
linchpins of the defense are star MLB Jerod Mayo, a consensus all-SEC pick
averaging 10 tackles per game, and sr. S Jonathan Hefney (also all-SEC; who
will make his 50th start in this game), both still available.
We believe the injury/suspension situation is about a wash. In addition to the
edge Ainge holds, two other angles weighed in our decision. Wisconsin didn’t
cover a game away from Madison this season, and the Badger defense fell off
noticeably from last year (allowed 154 more yds. & 11 more points per game
than 2006). Improving Tennessee is 8-2 in its last 10 games, and Fulmer will
remind his team of last season’s 20-10 loss to underdog Big Ten foe Penn State
in this same bowl. (DNP...SR: Tenn. 1-0)

COTTON BOWL
ARKANSAS (8-4) vs. MISSOURI (11-2)
Tuesday, January 1 Day at Dallas, TX (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PFPA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFFOPR
Arkansas 11 7-4 6-4 40 27 300 165 57-29-23 147 229 35-13-20 +8 2.6 12.6
Missouri 12 10-2 9-3 40 25 159 327 60-24-31 116 263 40-18-17 +13 3.0 8.0

Missouri 41 - Arkansas 34—

In a game featuring loads of point-generating
performers on both teams and good-but-not-great defenses, Missouri’s better
balance and QB excellence are likely to be the decisive differences. This is not
to disrespect Arkansas in any way. TGS scouts report the Razorbacks have
recovered rapidly from the departure of Houston Nutt and distractions of Bobby
Petrino’s hiring, with interim HC Reggie Herring (defensive coordinator the L3Ys;
reportedly headed to A&M after game) praising his players’ conscientiousness &
spirit in preparation, saying “We have them right where we want them.”
Herring has reportedly added more variations to the attack’s “Wild Hog” sets,
which feature A-A RB Darren McFadden (1725 YR, 5.7 ypc, 4 TD passes TY)
operating behind a much-decorated OL (C Jonathan Luigs won the Rimington
Award). Felix Jones (1117 YR, 9.1 ypc; 2 KOR TDs) is also a constant threat,
FB/H-B Peyton Hillis led the team in recs. (44), and 6-6 star WR Marcus Monk
(27 career TDs, but only 4 TY) is expected to be 90-95% after missing the bulk
of the season following two knee surgeries in August.
However, the Arkansas defense proved vulnerable to competent passers
TY, giving up 41 points at Alabama, 42 vs. Kentucky, 36 vs. South Carolina, 34 at Tennessee, and 48 at LSU (in overtime). And QB Casey Dick (57%,
18 TDs, 9 ints.), although improved, still has limitations.
That means the door is open for QB Chase Daniel (69.7%, 4170 YP, 33 TDs, 10 ints.) and
the multi-dimensional Tiger spread offense, which strikes repeatedly and effectively at
defensive weaknesses. With Daniel mobile enough to buy time and tough enough to put his
head down and run, Mizzou was second in the nation in third-down conversions at 53%.
Clutch TEs Martin Rucker & Chase Coffman combined for 132 recs. & 15 TDs, while RB Tony
Temple (758 YR) led a capable RB corps. But the new addition who helped boost the Tigers
to the top of the BCS rankings going into December is speed-burning RS frosh WR/RB/KR
Jeremy Maclin, who had 77 recs. & 9 TDC, plus 4 TDs rushing, 2 on punt returns, and 1 on
kickoff returns.
Tiger HC Gary Pinkel says his team’s focus & effort are the best he’s seen, and he’s been
surprised by his team’s youthful quickness on defense, especially after losing playmaking S
Pig Brown in the eighth game. Fired-up Mizzou fans have gobbled up tickets as fast as the
Hog backers.
If you love watching offense on New Year’s Day, this is your bowl. But as a small favorite,
the Daniel-led Tigers are the choice. (DNP...SR: Tennessee 1-0)

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
MICHIGAN (8-4) vs. FLORIDA (9-3)
Tuesday, January 1 Day at Orlando, FL (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Michigan 11 8-3 6-5 26 19 159 205 36-15-21 150 175 23-14-8 +5 2.9 11.8
FLORIDA 11 8-3 8-3 43 26 199 259 63-33-25 104 257 34-16-16 +1 3.1 8.6

FLORIDA 38 - Michigan 34—

The demanding Michigan faithful finally got
their wish, as longtime head coach Lloyd Carr tendered his resignation
following a 4th straight loss to rival Ohio State in this year’s regular-season
finale. Early on, it appeared that the beleaguered Carr might be forced out
before finishing 2007, as the Wolverines followed a mortifying loss to
Appalachian State in their opener at Ann Arbor with a humbling 39-7 home
defeat at the hands of Oregon. But UM made things interesting, winning its
next 8 games before dropping the final 2 (at Wisconsin & vs. Buckeyes) to
seal Carr’s fate. Former West Virginia mentor Rich Rodriguez takes charge
of the Wolverines after this game, and he’s already notified the current UM
assistant coaches that nearly all of them will be replaced.
While Big 10 insiders predict a spirited effort from the Wolverines in the swan
song for the respected Carr & his staff, emotion alone won’t be enough to keep
UM in the hunt against potent defending national champ Florida. The Gators
have scored more than 500 points this season, with tough-as-nails QB Tim
Tebow (29 TDP, 22 TDR) taking home the Heisman in just his sophomore
season. A quick glance at the relative statistics in this matchup, and it would
appear that Michigan (just 26 ppg) is severely outgunned. But a deeper look
reveals that the Wolverines’ offensive production during 2007 was severely
stunted by lingering injuries to QB Chad Henne & RB Mike Hart. With that star
senior duo now healthy—and the best full-time WR on the field (jr. Mario
Manningham has 20 TDC in last 2 seasons) wearing Maize & Blue—Michigan’s
attack should have enough balance & weapons to trade points.
As long as the weather is OK, “over” might be the best percentage play. The
slowish Wolverine defense does not match up well against UF’s quick-hitting
spread scheme, and the young, rebuilt Gator stop unit (allowing 249 ypg
passing, only 16 takeaways) is also vulnerable. (DNP...SR: Michigan 1-0)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Illinois 11 8-3 7-4 29 21 265 160 40-24-14 118 256 28-8-17 +2 3.1 10.9
So CAL 12 10-2 6-6 31 16 186 233 47-20-27 79 180 23-12-8 -1 2.9 11.6

ROSE BOWL
ILLINOIS (9-3) vs. SOUTHERN CAL (10-2)
Tuesday, January 1 Day at Pasadena, CA (Grass Field)

SOUTHERN CAL 27 - Illinois 20—

We’ve seen it countless times throughout
the years. In a nutshell, it’s hard to get the image of a powerful program,
especially one at its zenith, out of one’s mind. Whether Woody Hayes’ late ‘60s
Ohio State teams, Darrell Royal’s Texas wishbone powerhouses from the same
era, or, in a cross-sport reference, John Wooden’s first Bill Walton-led UCLA
NCAA title team in 1972, rarely can powerhouse programs sustain an
unprecedented level of domination for more than a year or two. They might
keep winning, but oddsmakers make adjustments to the pointspread, adding
another hurdle to be cleared, while opponents begin to figure out ways to slow
them down.
And so it has been with Southern Cal the past two seasons in the wake of the
breathtaking Matt Leinart/Reggie Bush teams of a few years ago. Sure, the
Trojans are still plenty good; indeed, they’ve got a legit argument that they were
playing as well as any team in the country when the regular season concluded.
But with QB John David Booty limited somewhat by a WR corps that continues
to suffer from the dropsies, they’re not nearly as dynamic as they were in the
heyday of Leinart/Bush, although the vision of those Norm Chow-influenced
and designed offensive juggernauts is hard to erase from the memory bank.
And it’s the knee-jerk reaction to those past glories that likely continues to
saddle Troy with added pointspread premiums, ones they have mostly not been
able to overcome, even since the later days of Leinart and Bush. Indeed, SC
has covered just 3 of 8 laying double digits this season, 4 of its last 15 since
early ‘06, and just 9 of its last 26 since the middle of the ‘05 campaign. And,
now, the Trojans are being asked to carry the heaviest pointspread burden of
any bowl team this postseason.
That in itself isn’t enough of a reason to support underdog Illinois, but it’s a
nice bonus. Blessed with several playmakers, the Illini coped with some nasty
defenses this season, including a seemingly impenetrable Ohio State stop unit,
and usually fared well, especially in that 28-21 November 10 upset at
Columbus, when soph QB Juice Williams passed for 4 TDs and gave the
Buckeyes fits with his mobility. Although the matchup of Williams, RB Rashard
Mendenhall (1526 YR), and the 5th-ranked Illini infantry vs. the stout Trojan rush
“D” (ranks 4th at mere 79 ypg) could prove problematic for the Champaign-
Urbana bunch, some Pac-10 observers believe Juice’s elusiveness could be
unnerving for Pete Carroll’s “D,” as have other mobile QBs in the past (such as Vince Young and, this season, Oregon’s Dennis Dixon).
Moreover, despite its prowess, the Troy “D” hasn’t been forcing TOs (and
providing resultant short fields for the “O”) as it did for Carroll earlier in the
decade. Yes, if SC shuts down the Illini infantry and forces Williams to the air,
Illinois could be in trouble. But we’re not convinced it’s going to be that easy.
(DNP...SR: Southern Cal 10-2)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Hawaii 10 10-0 4-6 43 27 77 450 56-14-37 146 224 34-16-14 -3 1.1 20.9
Georgia 11 9-2 7-4 31 21 182 198 42-26-16 125 211 27-15-11 +5 3.3 7.5

SUGAR BOWL
HAWAII (12-0) vs. GEORGIA (10-2)
Tuesday, January 1 Night at New Orleans, LA (Dome; FieldTurf)

*Georgia 40 - Hawaii 37—

Certain stereotypes die hard, we suppose. Such
as the argument that the gap remains wide between BCS and non-BCS
conference powers. Which, depending on the matchup, might still prove true.
But recent wins by “outsiders” Utah (35-7 over Pitt in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl) and
Boise State (who could forget that epic 43-42 thriller over Oklahoma in last
year’s Fiesta?) in BCS bowls, not to mention some of the upsets during the justcompleted
regular season (remember Appalachian State over Michigan?)
ought to dispel those notions...at least for the time being.
Still, just because Boise beat OU last year, and Utah whipped Pitt three
years ago (a game in which the Utes were a rather prohibitive 14-point favorite,
by the way), doesn’t mean Hawaii is going to do the same against Georgia.
Indeed, there are some potentially troubling fundamental matchups for the
Warriors to overcome in New Orleans, not to mention evidence that, at least
based on its schedule, June Jones’ bunch really doesn’t belong in the BCS,
especially vs. a Bulldog team tested week in and week out by rugged SEC
competition. Mainland travel has also often been a thorn for Hawaii teams and
came very close to scuttling this season’s BCS plans, with UH experiencing
narrow escapes at modest WAC outposts such as La Tech (45-44 in OT), San
Jose State (42-35 in OT), and Nevada (28-26 on a last-second FG). And last
time we checked, trips to Ruston, San Jose, and Reno sure aren’t to be
confused with excursions to Tuscaloosa, Knoxville, or Jacksonville for a date
vs. Florida, all of which UGa dealt with in ‘07.
Thus, the challenge for the Warriors is for their defense not to be
manhandled by a maturing Bulldog OL that began to open holes for
breathtaking RS frosh RB Knowshon Moreno (1273 YR) as the season
progressed and allowed soph QB Matthew Stafford ample time to look
downfield for speedy deep-threat WRs Sean Bailey & Mohammed Massaquoi.
Although most WAC observers believe Moreno might do significant damage,
they also suggest this Hawaii “D” is more fundamentally sound under 1st-year
d.c. Greg McMackin (who has lots of NFL background) than it was under Jerry
Glanville the past two seasons. In particular, McMackin’s in-game adjustments
were invaluable, reflected in the fact Hawaii jumped from 93rd a year ago to 33rd
in total defense stats this season.But we’re not sure a bigger challenge doesn’t await a Georgia “D” that
admittedly dealt with a lot of firepower in ‘07, but never had to cope with a strike
force quite like the UH Red Gun piloted by sr. QB Colt Brennan, now healthy
after throwing 38 TDP in 2007 after tossing 58 a year ago. Brennan’s prolific
squadron of wideouts will allow the Red Gun to keep firing for a full 60 minutes.
And even if the Bulldogs extend the margin, keeping the back door “shut”
against Brennan might be easier said than done.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEXAS TECH (8-4) vs. VIRGINIA (9-3)
Tuesday, January 1 Day at Jacksonville, FL (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Texas Tech11 7-4 6-5 39 27 58 470 56-15-40 185 205 38-17-18 -6 .5 11.5
Virginia 12 9-3 5-6 24 19 127 203 35-21-12 115 210 23-8-15 +3 3.6 13.7

Texas Tech 38 - Virginia 26—

Any short list of the top candidates for coach
of the year honors in 2007 should contain the name of Virginia mentor Al Groh.
Already on the hot seat after a losing campaign in 2006, Groh was under heavy
fire in Charlottesville when his Cavaliers opened this season with a moribund
23-3 loss at Wyoming. Based on that performance, few could have predicted
what would follow, as UVa cobbled together 7 straight wins and managed to
stay in the thick of the ACC title chase until the final week of the regular season.
Little has come easy for the Cavaliers this year, as 6 of their 9 victories were
decided by a total of 12 points! And the formula for success frequently wasn’t
pretty, as Groh, lacking a lot of premium offensive weapons, chose to play it
close to the vest on the attack, while leaving it up to his stingy, veteran defense
to hold foes in check. So, the main question in this matchup appears to be
whether Virginia & its Kia-like offense (just 330 ypg) has any chance of keeping
pace with the spread passing scheme “Ferrari” being driven Texas Tech (42 ppg
& 537 ypg).

It’s not impossible, especially if the Red Raider OL can’t hold the Cavaliers’
A-A sr. DE Chris Long (14 sacks; son of former Oakland Raider star & current
talking head Howie) at bay. Still, it’s much more likely that Tech will eventually
be able to pull away from this hard-trying but limited underdog. Raider jr. QB
Graham Harrell has thrown for 83 TDs & nearly 10,000 yards in just the last 2
seasons, and his rapid reads & quick release will help de-fuse the Virginia pass
rush. Also, Tech’s revelatory RS frosh WR Michael Crabtree (125 catches for
1861 yards & 21 TDs!) is a near-impossible matchup, too physical for many
CBs to handle but also too quick & agile to be covered by most safeties. No
surprise if the fundamentally-sound Cavaliers & versatile QB Jameel Sewell (16
TDP, 15 ints. last 2 seasons) win a few battles. They just probably don’t have
enough overall firepower to survive a 60-minute war against the relentlesslyattacking
Red Raiders. (DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

POINTWISE ( 6-14 )

MISSOURI (11-2) vs ARKANSAS (8-4)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
11:30 AM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Missouri ...... 47.0 ...40-25 ... 25-20 .. 165-119 ... 328-262 .. +11 . Missouri
Arkansas ..... 42.2 ...40-26 ... 19-19 .. 297-148 ... 161-211 .. + 6 . by 2.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
Just a month ago, the Tigers of Missouri were hoping to land a spot in the BCS
Championship game, as they were ranked #1 in the nation, before losing to
Oklahoma, 38-17, in the Big 12 title contest. That game, by the way, was the
only one in which Mizzou failed to reach at least 31 pts this season. As a matter
of fact, the Tigers had averaged a blazing 42 ppg in their 13 lined contests,
previous to that failure vs the Sooners. Led by brilliant Jr QB Chase Daniel, who
finished 4th in the Heisman voting (69.7%, 4,170 yds, 33 TDs, & only 10 INTs),
the Tigers have been a major story all season. Ranked a mere 32nd on our
"Polls" column at the season's onset, with only 1 publication ranking them in the
Top 25, they barely escaped Illinois in their opener, but prevailed, thanks to 5
Illini TOs. But the machine was revved, with 548, 619, 581, & 606 yds in the
next 4 contests, before being derailed by Oklahoma (who else?). They were the
only team to take the measure of then 2nd-ranked Kansas (519-391 yd edge), &
their 55-10 road demolition of a decent Colorado squad (598-196 yd edge) is the
stuff of legends. Thus, the Razorbacks of Arkansas will have their hands full, in
trying to stay with this offensive juggernaut. But the Hogs have the irrepressible
McFadden in their arsenal. He has run for an astronomical 4,485 yds & 40 TDs
the past 3 years, ranking 31st, 10th, & 4th in ball toting since '05. He blitzed
LSU for 206 yds in Arkies' season-ending upset of mighty LSU, & how about an
incredible 323 RYs (9.2 ypr), in the Hogs' 48-36 win over South Carolina? That
is simply awesome. Even with the departure of 10-yr coach Houston Nutt, the
Razorbacks fear no one. And the huge Tiger disappointment may be the edge.
PROPHECY: ARKANSAS 34 - Missouri 33 RATING: 5

TEXAS TECH (8-4) vs VIRGINIA (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas Tech . 42.0 .. 42-26 .. 25-19 .... 65-177 .. 476-196.. - 6 . Tex Tech
Virginia ....... 41.1 .. 24-19 .. 16-15 .. 127-115 .. 203-210.. + 3 . by 4.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Here we go again! The Raiders of Texas Tech compete in their 8th straight
bowl game, in the 8 years of Mike Leach's tutelage. And what an offense the
Raiders display, especially with their aerial fireworks, where they've ranked
#1, #1, #1, #1, #3, & #1 the past 6 years. Junior Graham Harrell has inherited
the mantle from earlier Tech flingers Kingsbury, Symons, Cumbie, & Hodges.
In his 2 years over center, he has thrown for 9,953 yds & 83 TDs! Not exactly
the type of opponent one aspires to face in a bowl contest. The Raiders swept
past Clemson, 55-15, in the '02 Tangerine (35-pt cover); Navy, 38-14, in the
'03 Houston (11½ pt cover), & California, 45-31, in the '04 Holiday (3-pt cover).
So an automatic play, right. Not quite, as they were held to a mere 10 pts in a
13-10 loss to Alabama in the '05 Cotton (6-pt ATS loss), & needed the largest
comeback in bowl history for a 44-41 OT win over Minnesota in the '06 Insight
(3½ pt ATS loss). By the way, Tech came from 38-7 down, halfway thru the
3rd. So, still a scintillating attack, but hardly an obvious "go-with" bowl play.
But, when the Raiders are on their game, they are dynamite. The Cavs return
to the bowl scene, after LY's expected miss, following the departure of Groh's
offensive & defensive coordinators. Virginia opened the year with a miserable
5 FD, 7 RY, 110 TY display in a 23-3 loss at Wyoming, but has fallen just twice
since, by 5 at NCSt, & by 12 at VaTech. Five wins by 3 pts or less, but also a
pair of impressive 30 & 48 pt romps over Pittsburgh & Miami. The Cavs shine
on "D", where they rank 18th (11th in scoring "D"). But containing Harrell,
Crabtree (21 TD catches), & Co, is another matter. But not a "1" call anymore.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 33 - Virginia 24 RATING: 6

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (10-2) vs ILLINOIS (9-3)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
5:00 EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
USC ............ 40.3 .. 31-16 .. 21-16 .. 186- 79 ... 233-180 .. - 1 . USC
Illinois ......... 43.5 .. 30-29 .. 19-19 .. 266-115 .. 157-241 .. + 1 . by 10.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
Just 3 years ago, Ron Zook left the Florida Gators as a failed successor to the
legendary Steve Spurrier, when they suffered through 5-loss seasons in each
of his 3 years at the Gainesville helm. Well, it didn't take the Fighting Illini of
Illinois long to snag him. And what a coup it has turned out to be, with Illinois
making it all the way back from a combined 8-38 record from '03-'06, to a spot
in the Grandaddy Bowl. Plain & simple, Zook has recruited well. Led by the
elusive Juice Williams at QB (1,498 PYs, 774 PYs), & the running of Mendenhall
(1,526 yds, 6.2 ypr, 16 TDs), the Illini have come from 47th, to 10th, to 5th in
the land in overland production. Check topping 275 RYs no less than 7 times,
with 260 RYs vs an Ohio St "D" which was 200 yds more than the 60.4 RYpg
allowed by the Buckeyes in their other 11 games. And that was at Columbus.
Can they repeat such a fete vs a healthy USC Trojan squad, which has been
the premier program in nation over the past 5 years? The logical answer may
seem to be: "Why Not?". And we certainly don't dismiss any such possibility,
with the aforementioned Illini overland accomplishments. But, as we noted,
this Troy squad is at its healthiest at the moment, proving that with a throttling
of then #7 Arizona St, in that Thanksgiving day massacre (508-259 yd edge),
followed by their rout of Ucla (26-10 FD, 231-12 RY, 437-168 TY advantages).
Booty is again a force (63%, 20 TDs), & remember, he threw for 4 TDs in LY's
annihilation of Michigan in this same bowl. In Zook's 3 years with Florida, his
Gators went 0-3 in bowl games, losing 38-30, 37-17, & 27-10 (9, 23½, 13 pt
ATS setback). Sure, this is another time & place, but Trojans shine in biggies.
PROPHECY: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 38 - Illinois 20 RATING: 4

FLORIDA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN (8-4)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Florida ........ 46.6 .. 43-26 .. 22-18 .. 199-104 .. 259-258.. + 1 . Florida
Michigan .... 43.1 .. 26-20 .. 19-15 .. 162-131 .. 185-159.. + 8 . by 14.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a match! Just the 2nd between these collegiate gridiron behemoths, the
Wolverines of Michigan, & the defending national champion Gators of Florida.
Their 1st meeting took place in the '02 Outback Bowl, with Michigan (+1) prevailing
38-30. The Wolves have dropped 4 bowl games since, & have allowed
33 ppg in their last 9 holiday classics. Not exactly what is expected from
squad which is known for its rock-ribbed defense. A year ago, the Gators
made it look easy, in their 41-14 BCS title rout of Ohio St (31-pt cover), & the
Wolves made it look difficult in that 32-18 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (13-pt
ATS setback). But despite those outcomes, we still feel that the Wolves were
jobbed from a return shot at the Buckeyes. No doubt, they still feel the same.
But is that added incentive enough to propel them past the awesome Gators,
who somehow lost 3 times this season? Florida opened more than few eyes
in its unheard of 59-20 rout of Tennessee, & wound up the season on a 4-gm
run, both SU & ATS, despite a "D", which allowed 33 ppg in its final 4 SEC tilts.
The Gator are led, of course, by Heisman winner, soph Tim Tebow, who set all
kinds of QB records with 29 passing, & 22 running TDs. Try 68.5% & just 6
INTs. The Wolves opened with that shocking loss to Appalachian St, followed
by a 39-7 home loss to Oregon (624-365 RY deficit), but then 8 straight wins,
before losses to Wisconsin & Ohio St: 40-25 FD & 756-411 yd deficits! Hart
has been a stalwart at RB for 4 years, but managed only 2.8 ypr in LY's Rose
Bowl. QB Henne & WR Mannigham are threats, to be sure, but Gator coach
Urban Meyer has simply shined in bowl contests. Florida, despite huge spot.
PROPHECY: FLORIDA 41 - Michigan 21 RATING: 1

GEORGIA (10-2) vs HAWAII (12-0)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Georgia ...... 47.1 .. 32-21 .. 18-17 .. 179-120 .. 200-205.. + 4 . Georgia
Hawaii ......... 34.3 .. 46-23 .. 27-21 .... 81-140 .. 442-210.. - 1 . by 5.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
This contest features yet another 2-loss team which feels that it has been
jobbed out of the BCS Title Game (the Georgia Bulldogs), facing major college
football's lone unbeaten team, which is thrilled to be here (the Hawaii Rainbow
Warriors). The 'Dawgs are, of course, one of the true elite squads in the land,
with a combined 63-15 record over the past 6 years, and making it to 34 bowl
games since the '66 season, with this marking their 11th straight season with
a bowl reward. And try 22 New Year's Day games. This year edition hardly
began with any flourish, as Georgia stood at just 4-2, after a thrashing at the
hands of the Vols of Tennessee, with 1 of those 4 wins by just 3 pts, in an OT
game vs eventual 6-6 Alabama. QB Stafford is the trigger, finishing as the 5th
rated passer in the SEC with 2,348 yds & 18 TDs, but Moreno is the engine
(2nd to McFadden in SEC RYs) in the 'Dawgs' 6-0 windup. Check 188 yds in
the Bulldogs' shockingly easy win over Florida (19½ pt cover). Yep, a 6-game
run to wind it up, & the 4th slot in the national rankings, but no BCS cigar. For
the 10th-ranked & perfect Rainbows, this one represents the apex. June Jones'
overhead barrages have been near unstoppable for the last 7 years, but this
edition is assuredly his best. The 'Bows have been challenged, to be sure, but
at season's end, they again led the nation in scoring at 46.2 ppg, down a bit
from LY's 46.8 ppg. They are led, of course, by the brilliant Colt Brennan, who
has thrown 131 TDs the past 3 years, to a bevy of top-notch receivers, such as
Grice-Mullen, Bess, & Rivers. This squad defines the word "explosive". Can
Hawaii be this year's Boise St? Absolutely. Fireworks galore & another upset.
PROPHECY: HAWAII 38 - Georgia 36 RATING: 2

THE SPORTS MEMO ( 15-6 )

Wisconsin +2

Missouri -3

Florida -10

Tech Tech-5.5

Illinois +13.5

Georgia-8

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS: ( 16-4 !!!!!!!!!!)

These two met once in the ‘81 Garden State Bowl which UT won 28-21. The Vols make a return
visit to Tampa where they are 1-1 SU & ATS in their history including LY’s 20-10 upset loss to Penn
St (-4’). The Badgers make their 4th appearance in this game (1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS). The last time they
visited Tampa in ‘04 they hung tough with favored Georgia but lost 24-21 (+8). The bowl committee
snapped up UW nearly a week before all the other bowl invites were handed out because of their fans’
fine reputation as travellers. Fulmer is 3-2 SU & ATS vs the Big Ten in bowls (7-7 SU & ATS overall).
UW has pulled 2 straight upsets of ranked SEC teams in NY’s Day bowls to bring their record up to
2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS vs the league in bowls (LY’s win under Bielema). UT has played a tougher schedule
(#20-46) taking on 10 bowl eligible teams (6-4 SU & 5-3-2 ATS) to UW’s 7 (4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS), but UT
was outgained 429-385 while UW outgained bowl foes 400-370. Both struggled on the road TY with
UT 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS while UW was 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS! UW has 5 senior starters & UT has 7. UW is
1-3 ATS as a dog TY & UT is 6-1 ATS as an AF S/’05. UW finished their season Nov 17 while UT last
played on Dec 1 but the extra rest has not affected this Big Ten team the L/2Y.
UW came into ‘07 with expectations to not only win their 1st Big Ten Title S/‘99 but also to compete for
their first-ever Nat’l Title as they opened the yr at #7. QB Donovan was 1 of just 2 new starters on off but
inj’s hampered the unit all ssn. TE Crooks, WR’s Swan and Hubbard, RB Hill and RG Kemp were among
the starters who missed multiple gms. The Badgers, who never quite looked like the tm that finished 12-1
in Bielema’s debut season, won their 1st 5 gms to climb into the Top 5 before losing to an unranked yet
favored Illinois tm. Donovan’s efficiency was hampered by the banged up rec corps which by the Penn
St gm saw the Badgers starting 2 true Fr WR’s. Eventually Hubbard returned for the L/5 gms to provide
the offense with a big play threat. The off MVP was John Mackey finalist Beckum who led the NCAA’s
TE in rec ypg and was #2 in rec per game. RB depth was a season long problem as #2 TB Smith was
suspended for all road games (is elig for bowl). When Hill was injured vs Indiana the staff was forced
to turn to true frosh Brown and he finished with 421 yds (5.5) in the L/3. UW returned 5 of their front 7
but were disappointing as they surrendered 73 more pass ypg & 13 extra TD passes than in ‘06. The S
play was erratic as well as CB Ikegwuonu’s play slipped (1st tm All-Big Ten in ‘06). The Badgers will be
without DT Chapman (knee), CB Langford (knee) and possibly Hill (leg) for the bowl.
UT’s roller coaster ssn started with a 1-2 record with blowout losses to Cal & rival UF and fans were
calling for Fulmer’s head. A blowout win over rival UGA quieted the fans until 2 wks later when the Vols
were blown out by rival Bama. Prior to the Ark gm, 191 former UT players including Peyton Manning took
out a full page ad supporting Fulmer, and UT finished the reg ssn with 5 str wins clinching a spot in the
SEC Champ gm. UT’s offense (#32) is led by Sr QB Ainge who lost his top 3 rec’s from ‘06, but still topped
LY’s ydg & threw 10 more TD. Taylor became Ainge’s go-to guy finishing #3 in the SEC in rec pg despite
being less than 100% in several gms. RB Foster turned in a career best ssn with five 100+ rush gms. UT’s
OL has been outstanding allowing just 4 sks in 491 pass atts (0.8%) which is #1 in the NCAA. DC Chavis
has built outstanding defenses here, but TY was an exception. UT finished #46 in overall D, but #76 in our
pass eff D rankings with 3 CB’s lost to inj & dismissal since April ‘07. Undersized FS Hefney (2nd Tm SEC
‘06) had a disappointing beginning of the yr, but true frosh SS Berry emerged as a star setting a UT record
with 222 int ret yds TY. Overall UT was outscored 29.7-28.6 and outgained 415-372 in SEC play TY but
their bend-but-don’t-break defense allowed just 20 ppg in regulation the L/6 (32 ppg 1st 7).
UT has had an all-or-nothing approach to the bowls the last few yrs with huge blowout wins over
TX A&M in ‘04 & Michigan in ‘01, but blowout losses to Clem & Maryland in B2B Peach Bowls in ‘02
& ‘03. The Vols finished with a loss in the SEC Championship but had a successful 9 win season with
a New Year’s Day bowl bid. Highly respected UT OC Cutcliffe was named HC of Duke and may not
coach the Vols in the bowl. Wisc has covered the L/3 vs the SEC on NY’s Day but Tenn did finish on a
7-3-2 ATS run while facing 10 bowl eligible teams. The Vols running game & defense improved as the
season progressed making them the more balanced team and the choice here.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 35 WISCONSIN 24 RATING: 3*

This will be the 5th meeting overall (2-2) & a rematch of the ‘03 Independence Bowl which Arkansas won
27-14 (-2’) despite being outgained 407-385. Mizzou is 10-14 in bowls & lost 40-27 vs Texas in their only Cotton
Bowl appearance. This will also be the Tigers’ 1st NYD bowl S/’70 (lost 10-3 vs PSU). Ark is 11-21-3 in bowls,
including 3-6-1 (1-2 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl. The Razorbacks are on a 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS run in bowls S/’79
are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS on NYD. Pinkel is 2-2 in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS as HC w/MO). Ark interim HC Herring will
be making his HC debut. Both schools sold their allotment of tickets & with the strong recruiting ties for Ark
in TX along with the home of the Big XII for MO the crowd will be a full house at 50/50. Mizzou has faced 6
bowl caliber tms going 5-2 SU & ATS, outscoring opp’s on avg 37-27 & outgaining them on avg 465-364. Ark
was 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS vs their 7 bowl caliber opps, outgaining them on avg 432-408, but were outscored on
avg 34-31. Both tms played Ole Miss, winning & covering, but Ark only all’d 294 yds & Mizzou gave up 534.
The Tigers have 7 seniors starters with 18 upperclassmen (82%) in starting roles while the Razorbacks start
10 seniors & 17 upperclassmen (77%). Mizzou was 4-0 ATS as an AF TY & Ark is 7-2 ATS as an AD. Ark will
have 8 more days of preparation as MO last played in the Big XII Title gm on Dec 1st.
Missouri was just one gm away from a Nat’l Title shot, but lost to OU for the 2nd time in one yr (only tm that
has beat them all ssn) & was bypassed by the BCS accepting the Cotton Bowl invite ungraciously. Missouri &
Ohio St are the only 2 schools in IA whose losses came vs BCS tms, yet the Tigers are not in the BCS? If you
take away the gms vs OU, Mizzou has dropped 36+ on every opp. Heisman finalist QB Daniel had a stellar Jr
season as he threw for at least 300 yds in 8 gms (62%) & is 4th in the NCAA in ttl off (343 ypg). Jeremy Maclin
broke an NCAA record for the most ttl yds in one ssn by a Fr with 2,713. He is 35% of the Tigers’ total yardage.
John Mackey runner-up Rucker along with Coffman are the best set of TE’s in the nation. The OL avg 6’4” 310
with 2 senior starters. The DL avg 6’3” 280 with 1 senior starter. The DL is the strength of the D all’g just 101
ypg (3.3) over the L/9 gms. They are led by Sr DT Lorenzo Williams & Jr DE Sulak. The secondary suffered
a big blow with the loss of Sr Pig Brown in late Oct, but does have 5 of 8 upperclassmen in the 2 deep & is
ranked #35 in the pass eff D allowing 262 ypg (62%) with an 18-16 ratio. K Wolfert is a ex-diver on the Mizzou
swim tm & has had an outstanding ssn. Super KR/PR Maclin is a threat to take it all the way on every touch.
Missouri is ranked #2 on offense, #25 on defense & #71 on ST’s (#115 in net punting, 30.9).
HC Nutt’s job was on the line well before the ssn started with all of the offssn drama surrounding the
transfer of former QB Mustain and the other Springdale players. When the Hogs started the ssn 0-3 in SEC
play, planes flew over Ark’s stadium during gms calling for his ouster. The tm led by junior RB’s McFadden &
Jones stuck together and fully supported their HC and won 5 of their L/6 gms including a huge upset of #1
LSU in 3OT to earn a NY’s Day bowl bid. Ark’s offense is #12 in our rankings. Two-time Heisman runner-up
McFadden wasn’t 100% for much of the ssn & was held to 43 yds in their loss to Aub, but tied an NCAA
record with 321 rush yds vs SCar and took nearly half of the snaps from center vs LSU (206 rush, 3 TD).
Jones was inj’d vs Tenn & missed all but 1 snap vs Miss St, but still reached 1,000. QB Dick was solid TY,
but not spectacular with a much improved TD/int ratio (LY 9-6). Dick was hampered by a banged up WR
corps with top WR Monk inj’d in the pressn and not returning until the L/6 gms. Starting WR Johnson missed
2 gms and both Monk & Johnson didn’t get much practice time all yr with the coaches holding them out
to keep them healthy for the gms. The OL is led by Rimington Trophy winner Jonathan Luigs and all’d just
10 sks (3.6%) & the tm finished #3 in the NCAA in rush (297 ypg, 6.2). Ark’s D is #49 in our rankings with
the DL solidifying midssn after Harrison ret’d from susp and settled in at his more natural DT position. Ark
allowed 147 rush ypg (3.8) and finished #5 in our pass D rankings all’g 211 ypg (46%) with a 21-19 ratio
vs a tough opposing slate of QB’s. CB Grant led the SEC in PD after moving from FS midssn.
This is a rematch of our 2003 Bowl Game of the Year as Ark (-2’) won 27-14. Missouri was the team
left out of the BCS mix and certainly will use this venue to prove they belonged. Arkansas knocked off the
#1 team in the country in their last game and then struggled to find a HC before luring Petrino from the
Falcons. Missouri has edges on both offense and defense and outgained bowl opponents by 101 ypg while
going 5-2 ATS. Missouri’s run defense is stout enough to slow the powerful Razorback rush attack and QB
Daniel knows that Ark all’d the pass attacks of Alabama and Kentucky to both put up 40+ points. FORECAST: Missouri 41 Arkansas 30 RATING: 4*

This is a rematch of the ‘02 Outback Bowl which Mich won 38-30 (-1), the only prior meeting between
these 2 powers. The Capital One was hoping to get 9-3 Illinois with HC Zook facing his former team, but
instead will host Lloyd Carr’s retirement party. Michigan leads the NCAA with their 33rd straight post season
gm while Florida has played 17 in a row (3rd longest). This is the Gators’ 5th trip to the Capital One Bowl
(2-2 SU) with their last appearance in ‘99 (37-34 loss to Mich St, -2’) while this is UM’s 4th appearance
(2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS). Though Michigan should bring some fans, UF should have a large crowd edge. UF HC
Meyer will be trying to win his 5th straight bowl (4-0 ATS) after LY’s trouncing of #1 ranked Ohio St in the
BCS Title gm as a 7’ pt dog. Meyer is 2-0 ATS as a bowl favorite (both at Utah). Carr is 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS
in bowls (2-3 as bowl dog) & LY suffered a blowout loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (+1). UM has 8 senior
starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles while UF has just 6 senior starters and 11 upperclassmen.
UF is 3-2 SU & ATS on the road TY, but just 2-9 ATS as an AF under Meyer. UM has faced 8 bowl elig
tms (5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS) with an avg score of 22-22 while being outgained by them 371-326. UF faced
9 bowl elig tms and outscored those tms 43-27 and outgained foes 447-370. Our rankings show UM with
the tougher schedule overall (#18-35). UM last played on Nov 17 while UF played on Nov 24.
#5 Michigan began ‘07 with National Championship expectations as they returned 4 of the NCAA’s best players
in QB Henne, RB Hart, WR Manningham and OT Long. Their shocking loss in the opener to IAA champ App St not
only dashed those lofty dreams but it also opened the floodgates for what proved to be 1 of the NCAA’s wackiest
ssns ever. The opener was also the last time that all of their stars played a full gm as Henne missed parts of 8
gms (knee & shoulder inj’s) while RB Hart missed 3 due to a nagging ankle inj. True frosh Mallett started 4 gms
(3-1 SU & ATS) but struggled with control (5 int & 10 fmbl’s w/5 lost). Despite the inj, Hart rushed for 100+ in 8
of his 9 gms played and will finally be 100% here. Biletnikoff finalist Manningham was in Carr’s doghouse due to
inconsistent play. Lombardi finalist Long was the steadiest performer on an OL which started 6 different combos.
Overall UM finished with our #47 off. After getting blown out by Oregon, UM rallied to win their next 8 gms thanks
to their D which all’d just 15 ppg and 275 ypg during the streak. The Wolves had 1 of the nation’s top D’s in ‘06 but
had to replace 7 starters incl 5 NFL DC’s. They struggled once again vs spread offenses which featured mobile
QB’s allowing 30 ppg and 421 ypg to App St, Oregon & IL. Crable led NCAA LB’s in tfl and was the only true star
of the defense that ranked #7 overall ST’s were rarely special as K Gingell had 2 FG’s blk’d vs App St which cost
them the gm. P Mesko was a standout vs OSU with 12 punts for a 45.9 avg in foul weather (40.1 net).
UF’s 2006 Nat’l Champ high started to wear off late Sept when the Gators were almost upset by Ole
Miss then the next week Aub upset the Gators in the Swamp as a 17’ pt dog ending their 18 gm home win
streak. The following wk, UF outplayed LSU, but lost in Baton Rouge for Meyer’s 1st B2B losses at Florida
(just 2nd time in career). QB Tebow suffered a shldr inj vs UK, and was unable to run vs rival UGA which
led to the Gators’ final loss of the ssn knocking them out of the SEC Title hunt. Heisman-Winner Tebow set
an NCAA record becoming the only player in history with 20+ pass & rush TD’s in a ssn. Tebow is their #1
offensive weapon (72%) as the tm’s top rusher and finished #2 in the NCAA in pass efficiency. Tebow suffered
a brkn hand vs FSU but is expected to be 100% here. Tebow’s top receiver Harvin missed 2 gms and
was forced to fill in at RB finishing as the #2 rusher. Tebow’s mobility helped the OL allow just 12 sks and
the tm rushed for 198 ypg (5.2). The Gators finished with our #1 offense. UF’s defense ret’d just 2 starters
from ‘06 and finished #42 overall in our rankings. The soft spot is the secondary which features 2 true frosh
starters (CB Haden & FS Wright) and finished #68 in our pass D rankings allowing 249 ypg (59%) with a
16-9 ratio. The rush D finished #10 in the NCAA allowing 99 ypg (3.0). UF has a large edge on ST’s (#18-98)
with returnman James & a net punt avg of 38.6 (#9 in NCAA).
Florida won the ‘06 BCS Champ with a coach who is 4-0 in bowls facing a Michigan squad that lost
its L/2 with a coach that has lost 4 straight bowls. Now let’s look a little deeper. The checklist shows that
Michigan matches up fairly evenly and they were a Top 10 team to start the year but were riddled with injuries
to their offense skill players. They will now finally be healthy and can keep this game close. Intangibles
favor the Wolves playing there final game for HC Carr against the Gators who expected, at worst, a BCS
Sugar Bowl trip as SEC Champs. This game is eerily similar to the ‘05 Capital One Bowl where a seemingly
undermatched Wisconsin squad beat Arkansas 24-10 as 10 point dog in Barry Alvarez’s final game. FORECAST: MICHIGAN (+) 31 Florida 35 RATING: 1*

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS

1st matchup. This is UVA’s 5th bowl appearance under Groh, and the Cavs are 7-9 SU & 7-8-1 ATS overall
in bowls. TT is 9-20-1 SU in bowls & is playing in their 8th straight post ssn gm, all under HC Leach (4-3
SU & 3-4 ATS). This will be UVA’s 2nd appearance in the Gator Bowl (lost to OK 48-14, -2 in ‘91). TT hasn’t
won a NYD bowl S/‘54 (Gator Bowl) going 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS since. The Raiders are 2-1 in the Gator Bowl
but this is their 1st appearance S/’73. The Cavs have not played a NYD bowl since they lost to BC 31-13 in
the ‘94 Carquest Bowl. UVA has faced 5 bowl caliber tms going 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS while outgaining those
opp’s 335-317 but were outscored 21-20 with 3 one pt wins. TT has faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 2-4 SU
& ATS, avg 510 ypg, outgaining foes by 59 ypg but being outscored 36-32. The Cavs have 7 seniors and 15
upperclassmen (68%) in the starting lineup while TT has just 4 senior starters & 10 upperclassmen (45%).
UVA plays their home games on grass & was 6-4 ATS on it & has the surface edge over TT who plays on
turf (3-7 ATS on grass). The Cavs are just 9-15 ATS as an AD under Groh but went 3-0 TY. TT was 3-1 ATS
as an AF TY. TT should have the fan edge here as they have sold their allotment of 12,000+ while UVA still
had 5,000 tickets remaining and their fans generally don’t travel to far away bowls.
TT is known for its potent offense that scores at will as HC Leach has that kind of persona. The
Red Raiders did return to form this year (42 ppg) from an off that avg ‘d 10 pgg less in ‘06 (prior to the
bowl). TT dropped 34+ on 10 opponents TY (83%). TT was 6-1 & ranked #22, but finished 2-3. They did
beat OU (w/o QB Bradford) to end the regular ssn & are the only Big XII tm to be bowl elig every year
since the league was formed in ‘96. For the 1st time in 6 yrs, TT had the same QB start for 2 straight
yrs. Harrell is #1 in the NCAA in pass yds, pass ypg & pass TD’s. TT however is ranked #119 in rush off
avg 61 ypg. Biletnikoff Winner WR Crabtree (1st FR named AFCA AA since Herschel Walker in ‘80) set
a Fr record with 21 TD (shattered old record of 14). He leads the nation in rec & rec yds & has eleven
100+ yd gms (two 200+). Sr WR Amendola was overshadowed, but his veteran leadership is invaluable.
The OL avg 6’6’’ 331 with NO seniors up front, making them inexperienced, but also the tallest &
largest OL in the country. The DL avg 6’4’’ 262 and again with NO seniors starters. DC Setencich was
let go after Tech all’d 49 pts & 610 yds to OkSt. McNeill has filled as interim DC & since then Tech has
allowed 25 ppg & 348 ypg. The Red Raiders rank #25 in our pass eff def allowing 196 ypg (55%) with
a 19-10 ratio. Texas Tech is ranked #3 on offense, #47 on defense & #15 on sp tms.
UVA started the ssn with an embarrassing 23-3 loss to WY with many wanting Groh fired. However, the
Cavs turned it around and won 7 straight finishing the season 9-3 with Groh being named the ACC COY &
getting his contract extended. UVA played many close games that could have gone either way. A win here
would give UVA 10 wins in a ssn for the first time S/’89. The Cavs lost their top TB Peerman midseason
w/a leg inj (#1 ACC prior to inj) and shuffled around several players until Simpson finally emerged as the
#1. The OL avg 6’5” 301 with 2 Sr starters, paving the way for 126 ypg rush (3.4) but did allow 30 sks.
The key to this game for UVA is trying to contain the nation’s #1 passing offense with their #22 ranked D.
Hendricks Winner & ACC Def POY DE Long is #3 in the nation in sks and has that first-step quickness to
apply pressure on TT. Fitzgerald is capable of creating havoc on the other side. The DL avg 6’4” 278 is only
all’g 113 ypg rush (3.0) and ranks #6 in the nation with 40 sks. LB Sintim is #2 on the team in sacks and
also has the capability of applying a lot of pressure. UVA’s secondary has struggled, all’g 210 ypg (57%)
with a 15-11 ratio ranking #72 in our pass eff D. They now have to try to defend a team that produced two
1,000+ yd receivers. The Cavs only have our #61 ST ranking but they did have one of the top punters in
the country in Weigand with a 45.5 avg but the tm had 3 P’s blk’d bringing the net to 35.2.
Ironically both of these tms had huge comebacks to beat Minnesota in their previous bowl win
(sorry Glenn Mason). TT’s spread offense is led by Graham Harrell, who passed for 5,000+ yds and
freshman WR Crabtree (1861 yds & 21 TD) and they’ll receive most of the pregame hype. Virginia’s
superstar is DL Long (Howie’s son) who is a one man wrecking crew and this grass field will help slow
the TT offense. The Cavs will quietly prep for this game as the underdog and will keep this one close
against the favored Red Raiders.
FORECAST: VIRGINIA (+) 28 Texas Tech 30 RATING: 2*

The Trojans have won 10 of 12 meetings outscoring the Illini by a 26-10 avg with the last game
in ‘96. Illinois makes their 1st bowl appearance S/’01 (Sugar Bowl) and 1st Rose Bowl S/’83. Since
‘82 the Illini are 3-8 SU in bowls and Zook went 0-2 SU & ATS on NY’s day as Florida’s HC. USC is
making an unprecedented 6th straight BCS Bowl which also happens to be their 32nd Rose Bowl
bid overall. The Trojans are 66-6 their L/72 gms under Carroll with their losses by a combined 20 pts
and are 4-2 SU & ATS in the post season. USC faced 5 bowl caliber teams winning 4 of 5 SU (3-2
ATS) outscoring them by a 27-15 avg. Illinois has faced 9 bowl eligible tms going 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS
outscoring them 27-22 and outgaining them 390-388. USC is playing in their hometown while Illini fans
are expected to flock to Pasadena. USC went 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road TY and IL went 4-2 SU
& ATS including their upset of #1 Ohio St. The Trojans have 10 senior starters and 19 upperclassmen
while bowl hungry Illinois has 8 seniors among 15 upperclassmen. Since the 2nd gm of ‘03 USC has
been favored in every reg ssn game except vs Oregon TY. The Trojans are 4-11 ATS as DD favorites.
IL is 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. IL wrapped up its season Nov 17th while USC finished on Dec 1st.
Ron Zook came to Illinois with the reputation of being a big time recruiter (21 of 22 starters on Florida’s
National Championship tm) but he entered the 2007 season with a 27-33 career record. Zook’s young
squad pulled the NCAA’s largest turnaround in his 3rd year in Champaign going from a 2-10 record to
9-3. The Illini run a no-huddle spread power option which suits the skills of QB Williams. Williams is very
mobile but an unpolished passer, in fact if you take out his 4 TD pass performance vs OSU he had a 9-10
ratio TY. Early in the year Zook frequently substituted Williams with backup McGee who is considered a
better passer but the coach stuck with Juice and was rewarded. Big Ten Offensive POY RB Mendenhall
led the conf in rushing. Frosh WR Benn, who was recruited by USC, led the Illini in receiving despite rarely
being 100% TY due to a shoulder injury. The OL was 1 of the NCAA’s best paving the way for 5.7 ypc with
just 11 sks all’d (3.8%). The offense is #19 in our ranking while the D is #20. The Illini defense is led by AA
LB Leman who was #3 in the conf in tkls. The DL avg’s 6’5” 277 and had 38 sks with 3.3 rush ypc all’d.
Illinois ranks #42 in pass eff D led by cover CB Davis who was the only soph to be a Thorpe semifinalist.
The ST’s were a much improved unit (#62) as K Reda hit 3 FG’s from 50+ and the team blk’d 2 kicks.
Trojans QB Booty looked to be the Heisman frontrunner early but a broken finger vs Stanford (4
int in the 2H) caused him to miss the next 3. In Booty’s absence, bkup Sanchez took over leading
USC to victories in 2 of 3 starts. Booty returned & despite accuracy issues early, put together an
impressive performance vs ASU (375 yds, 67%, 4-0 ratio) boosting his confidence to end the ssn.
RB Washington led in rushing for the 2nd straight ssn while rFr Johnson & true frosh McKnight were
forced to carry the remainder of the load after the transfer of Moody (#2 rush LY) and a ssn ending inj
to Gable (#3 rush LY). The WR position was the biggest ? TY after the departure of Jarrett & Smith to
the NFL. The new receiving trio of Turner, Ausberry & Hazelton struggled early in the ssn as TE Davis
led the tm in rec, rec yds & rec TD’s winning the John Mackey Award. The OL is loaded with talent &
size (6’5” 303) led by AA LT Baker who helped pave the way for 185 ypg rush (4.7) while all’g 15 sks
(3.6%). USC is ranked #10 on offense. The DL avg 6’5” 286 all’g just 79 ypg rush (2.4) led by DT Ellis
and DE Jackson. The LB corps is one of the best in the nation with Maualuga, Rivers & Cushing. The
secondary all’d 180 ypg (54%) with an 8-10 ratio ranking #4 in pass eff D. The def finished #2 overall.
USC struggled on ST’s (#100) as they allowed 3 blk’d P’s and a KR TD.
It is business as usual as USC is playing in their 3rd straight Rose Bowl and 6th straight BCS appearance.
Illinois is thrilled to be selected by the BCS and their season is a success just by landing in this
game. The Trojans have a chip on their shoulder and are out to prove that they are a national power. The
defense has at least 9 players who will be playing on Sundays and already faced a pair of mobile QB’s
in Dixon and Locker. They held Oreg (w/ Dixon) 167 yds under their season avg and held Washington
204 yards under theirs. USC’s HC Carroll against UI HC Zook is one of the biggest bowl mismatches.
FORECAST: USC 34 ILLINOIS 13 RATING: 2*

Hawaii ended the reg ssn with a perfect 12-0 record en route to becoming the only undefeated team in
IA. The Warriors own the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 gms & have won 22 of their L/23 contests.
The Warriors are playing in their first BCS bowl (the WAC’s 2nd in as many yrs) & are making their 5th
bowl appearance in 6 years. Three-time WAC COY (‘99, ‘06, ‘07) Jones has guided the Warriors to 5 of
their 7 bowls & is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. UGA is playing in their 11th straight bowl & 7th consec bowl under
Richt (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) and LY upset #14 VT in a 31-24 come-from-behind win in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
This is UGA’s 43rd bowl appearance (#6 in NCAA, 23-16-3 record) and their 9th Sugar Bowl (3-5 SU). In
their last Sugar Bowl trip, UGA was upset by WV (-6) 38-35, a gm in which the Dawgs trailed 28-0 early
2Q. UH is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY outscoring them 35-28 and outgaining them 517-357 while
completing 73% of its pass atts. UGA has faced a much tougher schedule (#49-118) with a 7-2 SU & 6-3
ATS record vs 9 bowl elig tms. UGA outscored those tms 30-22 & outgained them 372-333. The Warriors
are 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS) vs SEC squads S/‘87. UGA sold over 22,000 tickets to this gm as of presstime and
will have a huge crowd edge with possibly less than 1,500 fans making the long trip from Hawaii. UGA is
4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY while UH is 5-0 SU & 2-3 ATS. UH has 12 senior & 21 of their starters
are upperclassmen while UGA has just 7 seniors & 13 upperclassmen in starting roles.
UH QB Brennan, the WAC Off POY, directs our #8 rated off & is the NCAA’s career leader with 131
TD passes. Brennan has passed for over 4,000 yds in each of his 3 ssns at UH. TY he threw for over
400 yds & 4 or more TD’s in 6 of UH’s 12 gms with ssn-highs of 548 yds & 6 TD. In the Warriors’ final
2 gms vs their biggest opps, Brennan passed for 937 yds (80%) & 10 TD, including a school-record 20
consec comp vs Wash. UH’s WR trio of Bess, Grice-Mullen & Rivers have each surpassed the 1,000
yd plateau TY (ties NCAA record). UH also had at least 2 WR’s with 100+ yds in a gm 8 times TY
including 4 gms with three 100+ yd receivers. UH’s OL avg 6’2” 293 & all 5 have started every game
TY. The unit is primarily a pass-protection front in the Run-&-Shoot (606 pass plays vs 261 rush) &
all’d 26 sks while aiding a running game that avg 3.6 ypc. UH is known for its offense but it features
our #61 rated D which has been flying under the radar. UH is #9 in the NCAA in sks (38), #11 in int
(19) & #5 in 3rd down conv (28.7%). UH’s DL avg 6’3”, 281 & DE Veikune leads the WAC in sks. The
LB duo of Elimimian & Leonard both eclipsed the century mark in tkls while the veteran secondary
all’d 217 ypg (57%) with a 15-19 ratio earning our #23 overall pass eff D ranking. UH is #55 in our ST
ratings & PK Kelly hit two HUGE kicks to keep UH’s undefeated season & BCS hopes alive.
UGA’s young offense (#41) is led by soph QB Stafford who made great strides after a rocky true
frosh ssn improving his TD/int ratio from 7-13 in ‘06. However, the team’s 6 gm win streak to end the
ssn can partially be attributed to RB Moreno who started the L/6 after Brown & Lumpkin were inj’d.
Brown ret’d as a bkup in the L/3 & led the tm vs GT with 139. Lumpkin (‘06’s top rusher with 798, 4.9)
may be available for the bowl. The WR’s were steady but unspectacular for most of the ssn with less
dropped passes than ‘06. The OL starts 3 true frosh and all’d just 15 sks (4.4%) while opening holes
for 179 rush ypg (4.6). UGA’s #15 D was solid vs the run all’g 120 ypg (3.4) & had a solid pass rush
with DT Atkins collecting 29 qbh & DE Howard having 33. The safeties were a little banged up TY, so
CB Allen finished as the #2 tklr and UGA finished #41 in our pass D rankings all’g 205 ypg (59%) with
an 11-11 ratio. They will need their top 6 DB’s (at least) to be healthy for the bowl, but UGA did hold
the best QB they faced, Tebow (though stationary due to shldr inj) to 236 pass yds and 1 TD pass.
Though UGA is happy to make a BCS bowl, this is potentially a lose-lose situation for the Dawgs
because if they beat UH, they “only” beat a WAC tm, and if they lose, it will be a replay of LY’s Fiesta
Bowl. Hawaii is thrilled with a BCS appearance and does have hope from fellow WAC member Boise’s
Fiesta Bowl win. Georgia however will use that same upset from LY to keep themselves focused and
HC Richt has made a point that their loss to WV in 2005 catapulted the Mountaineers program. A
focused Georgia team will show you the talent difference between the SEC and the WAC,
FORECAST: GEORGIA 43 Hawaii 27 RATING: 2*

WINNING POINTS ( 9-10-1)

OUTBACK BOWL
(January 1 at Tampa)
TENNESSEE over WISCONSIN by 5
When the world saw Florida humiliate Ohio State in the National Championship
game LY a case can be made that the long Buckeye layoff was a major factor – the
Gators extended their season a full two weeks longer, and as such were much closer
to their prime playing rhythm. There was another game LY that brought a similar
setting to the table, when Wisconsin gutted out an outright win over Arkansas
(which lost to Florida in the SEC title game) on January 1st. Did that game tell us
that the layoff, which is matched in this game, is not all that important? Not really.
Despite winning on the scoreboard, the Badgers were badly pushed around at
the line of scrimmage – total offense was 368-201, and a team that prides itself on
physical play up front was actually held to minus yards rushing. The truth is that
in two games in which SEC teams played two weeks longer into the season than
Big 10 opponents, the SEC side dominated each game. That becomes the starting
point for this one but the rest is precarious, largely because of Tennessee’s inconsistency
through this season (three losses by 14 points or more, and had to survive
missed field goals down the stretch by both Vanderbilt and Kentucky that would
have turned those results around), and recent bowl performances (three losses in
double figures in the last four trips). But Wisconsin may bring even less to the
table, losing at Illinois and Penn State in the only road games against bowl teams,
and not facing anyone near the likes of Vol QB Erik Ainge this season. TENNESSEE
31-26.

COTTON BOWL
(January 1 at Dallas)
ARKANSAS over MISSOURI by 1
Since the BCS first began its money-making enterprise, few teams have been treated
as poorly as Missouri. The Tigers only lost to one team all season, that being
Orange Bowl entrant Oklahoma, and beat BCS-bound Illinois and Kansas on neutral
fields. Why did the latter two get better invitations? Ask the money guys. What
it should do is put an extra motivation into the preparation for Gary Pinkel and his
team for this game, but that is not always a good thing – for a program making its
first New Year’s day appearance under their coach (it took seven seasons), maintaining
the proper composure to use that energy for something positive can be a
question. But that is only one of many questions in this one. While we believe that
Arkansas can get Darren McFadden untracked vs. an only average Tiger defense, in
what will likely be his last game as a Razorback, there are some defensive questions.
It has nothing to do with the post-Houston Nutt transition, as defensive coordinator
Reggie Herring takes over as head man for this game, but rather – is this pass
defense any good? Yes, we see what the numbers say; they rate 5th in the nation in
the key pass efficiency defense numbers, usually the best measure. But take a look
at the opposition. Even coming from the tough SEC they faced one of the weakest
clusters of passing offenses that could be imagined at that level. We will still give
them enough benefit of the doubt to call for the mini upset in this one, but do not
have the full confidence that the way they match up vs. Chase Daniel really shows
in their numbers. ARKANSAS 31-30.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
(January 1 at Orlando)
FLORIDA over MICHIGAN by 8
Yes, there would be a sentimental part of us that might like to see a nice guy like
Lloyd Carr get a win in his final game as Michigan coach. But we are also realists
enough to know that games can only be won on emotion if there are not major tactical
issues. There certainly are here. While the Wolverines will finally have Mike
Hart and Chad Henne both healthy in the backfield for the first time since
September, which makes them one of the best offenses in the nation, that only supplies
half of the answer here. The rest must come from whether or not defensive
coordinator Ron English and his players can do something that we have not seen a
Michigan defense do in a long time – stop a quality spread offense led by a mobile
QB. In the last three bowls games we have seen the opposition ring up 38, 32 and
32 against them, and after seeing the way that Appalachian State and Oregon made
this unit look slow back in September, we can only wonder how many holes that
Urban Meyer might find for Tim Tebow and some skill people with great quickness
to exploit. The fact that Michigan’s defensive numbers got better down the
stretch was more a result of the competition than any special growing up that
might have taken place for this unit. The bottom line is that we see an explosive
affair in which neither side figures to stop the other very easily, and with two savvy
quarterbacks that take good care of the ball, opportunities should turn into points.
FLORIDA 38-30.

GATOR BOWL
(January 1 at Jacksonville)
TEXAS TECH over VIRGINIA by 9
Once upon a time, playing in the ACC meant going up against great QB’s and
sophisticated passing attacks. Not this season. It was a flat-out awful year for
offenses in that conference, and a big part of it was a lack of QB play. And if
Virginia did not even face the best of them, Matt Ryan of Boston College, then just
how much weight do we attach to those solid defensive numbers of the Cavaliers?
Not a whole lot, that is what, especially when there was nothing special about the
offenses that they faced in non-conference competition either. That means that
they are not exactly well-prepared for facing the best passing attack in the land, and
that we are likely to see some shock from a defensive huddle that has rarely been
over-matched this season. Even more shock comes from the fact that Mike Leach
has had ample time to tweak his playbook, as has been his history in bowl games,
and that means even more ways to get the ball to Michael Crabtree, who somehow
never got into the Heisman hunt despite a remarkable freshman season in which
he caught 125 passes, good for 1,861 yards and 21 touchdowns. And while the Red
Raiders are not here because of their defense note that there is reason to at least
expect a little spark from that side of the ball – this may end up being a one-game
playoff for interim defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill to show why he should
get that job full time. Cavaliers are only here because of a fluky 5-0 record in games
decided by two points or less, and those dice can go cold vs. this class. TEXAS
TECH 37-28.

ROSE BOWL
(January 1 at Pasadena)
SOUTHERN CAL over ILLINOIS by 17
For as excited as Ron Zook and his team are to have earned this berth so early in
the building process, it may ultimately become one of those “be careful what you
wish for” moments. The reward of being in the Rose Bowl comes with the challenge
of taking on the team that is playing the best football of any in the nation
right now, and once that will cause them some matchup problems. The Illinois
surge has been a result of Zook and Juice Williams arriving at the same time, with
the latter providing a mobile look at QB that has caused real problems for slower
defenses in the Big 10. That included the stunning upset at Ohio State, when the
Buckeye defense was repeatedly a half step away from making plays against
Williams. But now that can be corralled by one of the fastest defenses in the nation,
and one that has experience against such attacks. And it is a defense that was kicking
its game into a higher gear down the stretch, once they were able to get everyone
healthy again. The speed at LB makes a particular difference here – shut down
the Illinois ground game and this offense has a difficult time challenging through
the air, where they rated 82nd nationally in passing efficiency. But even with the
Trojan defense dominating the game the pointspread still looms large, because for
once Pete Carroll does not have a lot of playmakers on offense - Southern Cal only
had one touchdown all season on a play of 50 yards or more. There is still enough
to merit the call here, however, particularly with the two week edge in playing
rhythm, with their win over U.C.L.A. coming long after Illinois had finished up
vs. Northwester. SOUTHERN CAL 31-14.

SUGAR BOWL
(January 1 at New Orleans)
GEORGIA over HAWAII by 15
In our Rose Bowl analysis we wrote about Illinois being in a “be careful what you
wish for” setting, and we can begin this one the same way. By going undefeated,
while others around the nation were stumbling, June Jones and his Warriors have
made their way into a BCS bowl. That is great for the program, but this result will
not be. Now they have to take on a Georgia team has been outstanding down the
stretch, which is what was expected of a young but talented team that needed some
time to develop. And the bottom line is that Hawaii is overmatched. Instead of
using Colt Brennan and that deep corps of WR’s to wear down lesser opponents,
Jones now has to deal with a defense that not only has the personnel to rush
Brennan, but to also cover man-to-man all over the field. And what can happen
when this offense faces any kind of challenge away from home? The truth is that
we do not know, because it did not happen this season – the only trip to face a bowl
team was that last-play escape at mediocre Nevada when Brennan sat out most of
the way. But note that Brennan was intercepted four times in an overtime win at
San Jose State, and five more at Nevada. Those are ominous signs when stepping
up against this class of defense. They headaches get worse when Georgia has the
ball, when Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown pound away against an undersized
defensive front, which in turn means that Matthew Stafford has plenty of
time in play action to throw deep down the field. Hope the Warriors enjoy the
Cajun food. GEORGIA 42-27.

EROCKMONEY ( 10-9 SO FAR)

1/1 - Outback - Wisconsin (+3.5) v. Tennessee

Tennessee has struggled in bowl games of late and I expect this one to be no different. Wisconsin is a gritty team that will put up a fight to the end. This is the fifth consecutive year Wisconsin has met up with an SEC foe in the bowl game. Wisconsin upset Arkansas and Auburn the last two years and covered agianst Georgia the year before. This one will be close.

Pick: Tennessee by 1

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 9th)

1/1 - Cotton - Arkansas (+3) v. Missouri

Missouri went from the number ranked team after the regular season to out of the BCS. How is that posible? This what happens in the silly world of college football. Argument for one team (LSU over Georgia) don't apply to others (Missouri - Kansas). Missouri has packed in and the Razorback outsatnding pair of RB's will lead them to victory.

Pick: Arkansas by 2

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 11th)

1/1 - Gator - Virginia (+6) v. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are up and down from week to week. This team has struggled outside of the Big 12 the last couple of seasons, especially as a favorite. I love the Cavaliers getting the points and believe they have an excellent chance to pull the upset.

Pick: Virginia by 1

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 3rd)

1/1 - Capital One - Florida (-10) v. Michigan

Michigan struggled with unconventional offensive systems this year and the Gators offense gives everyone problems. The Gators are probably the third best team in the country, better than eight of the teams in the BCS. Tebow and company will dominate and cruise to a victory.

Pick: Florida by 19

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 18th)

1/1 - Rose - USC v. Illinois

It is joke that the Illini are even in this game. USC is the best team in the nation, as expected. Yet, I can't bring myself to take the Trojans. Too many things are pointig their way, almost too good to be true.

Pick: USC by 14

Status: No Play

1/1 - Sugar - Georgia v. Hawaii

Boise St. keeps runnign through my mind when I look at this game. I'm intrigued by Hawaii enough to lay off.

Pick: Georgia by 10

Status: No Play

DR BOB ( 10-9)

2 Star Selection
**Wisconsin 31 Tennessee (-3.0) 27 (at Outback Bowl at Tampa) 08:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 These two teams are very similar, as both teams are good offensively, mediocre on defense and have very good special teams. Tennessee averaged 5.7 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Erik Ainge improved a bit once the broken pinky on this throwing hand was completely healthy after the week 5 bye. That attack will be going up against a mediocre Wisconsin defense that allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Badgers as 0.2 yppl worse than average after losing starting CB Allen Lanford and DT Jason Chapman late in the season. But, star LB Elijah Hodge should be at full strength after missing most of the last two games with minor injuries.

Wisconsin’s offense should also move the ball well. The Badgers averaged 5.8 yppl in the regular season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but Wisconsin was slightly worse (by 0.1 yppl) in the final 6 games without big play receiver Luke Swan, who will also miss this game. The loss of running back P.J. Hill will have no impact at all since Hill’s compensated yards per rush (5.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.9 ypr to an average back) is the same as that of Zach Brown (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.8 ypr), who took over for Hill the final 3 games of the regular season. Lance Smith-Williams and his 6.2 ypr is also available, so the Badgers could be even better running the ball without Hill. Tennessee’s defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl), so the Badgers have an advantage when they have the ball.

Neither quarterback is interception prone, having thrown 10 picks each, and my math model favors Tennessee by 3 points in this game - which is what the line is. The reason for the play on Wisconsin is a 16-0 ATS subset of a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation and a 32-7 ATS bowl angle that both favor Wisconsin. The Badgers played below expectations this season (4-7 ATS) but they were still good enough to make it to one of the New Year’s Bowl games. Good teams that under-performed in the regular season tend to improve during the month-plus of bowl preparation, as teams playing in major bowl games (the 5 BCS Bowls plus the other New Year’s Day Bowls – the Outback, Cotton, Citrus, and Gator) are 18-8 ATS as underdogs if they had a losing pointspread record in the regular season when facing a team that has a winning pointspread mark (12-4 ATS against teams that were 3 games or more above .500 ATS, as the Vols were).

I’ll play this game on the basis of the strong technical indicators and I’ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-115 odds or less) or more.

2 Star Selection
**Hawaii 32 Georgia (-8.5) 31 (at Sugar Bowl) 05:30 PM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Unbeaten Hawaii had some close calls against a few bad teams, but the Warriors raised their level of play against the good teams that they faced and they have a pretty good shot at an outright upset in this game. Hawaii played their toughest 4 opponents in their final 4 games of the year, facing Bowl teams Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State and Pac-10 rep Washington, who would have been a bowl team if they didn’t face the toughest schedule in the nation. In those 4 games the Warriors averaged 7.5 yards per play while allowing only 5.3 yppl. Those are very impressive numbers considering that those 4 opponents would combine to average 5.9 yppl and allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. For the season Hawaii’s potent attack was 1.5 yppl better than average (7.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack), but they were 2.2 yppl better than average in those final 4 games when challenged by decent teams. Hawaii has the type of offense that can move the ball even on good defensive teams, so they are relatively better when facing good defenses than they are against bad defensive teams since the level of opposing defense doesn’t have as much impact on Hawaii’s attack. That has certainly been the case with Colt Brennan, who was 1.7 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) but was 2.1 yppp better than average against the 6 mediocre or better than average pass defenses he faced (8.1 yppp against Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Fresno, Boise and Washington – who would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Georgia has a very good pass defense that yielded just 5.5 yppp in 11 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Colt Brennan is not fazed by good defensive teams, as he threw for nearly 500 yards and averaged 8.8 yppp against Boise State – the best pass defense he faced this season. Boise, at 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass, is not quite as good as Georgia’s pass defense (the Bulldogs are 0.9 yppp better than average), but Brennan faced some very good pass defenses last season and thrived. Brennan threw for 9.9 yppp against the 2006 unbeaten Boise State team that was 0.8 yppp better than average against the pass and he averaged 8.6 yppp combined last season in games against the good pass defenses of Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State and Arizona State. Those teams would have combined to allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback, which is pretty close to how good Georgia’s defense is this year. That included Brennan’s 542 yards at 11.8 yppp in the bowl game against an Arizona State defense that was 0.6 yppp better than average. My math model projects 6.9 yppp for Brennan in this game but that number would be 7.4 yppp based on his habit of playing relatively better against better defensive teams. Hawaii has scored 28 points or more in 25 consecutive games and the Warriors are likely to top 30 points in this game.

What is often overlooked is how good Hawaii’s defense has been this season. The Warriors didn’t have to flex their defensive muscle too often, as they played a lot of bad offensive teams, but that defense played great when challenged by good offensive teams in their final 3 games. The only better than average offensive teams that Hawaii faced were Nevada, Boise State and Washington, who would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against an average defensive team. The Warriors finished the season against those 3 good offensive teams and held them to a combined 5.2 yppl. For the season Hawaii yielded 5.0 yppl in 10 games against Division 1A opposition that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Georgia’s offense was only 0.6 yppl better than average in their 11 games against D-1A competition with Matt Stafford in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl), so the Bulldogs only have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Hawaii’s defense and I actually think the Warriors’ stop unit is just as good as Georgia’s offense when they are forced to play at fully intensity – as they will be in this game.

My math model favors Georgia by only 5 points even with a 2.2 points edge for projected turnovers and a 3.9 points advantage for the Bulldogs in special teams and Hawaii is 50/50 to win this game straight up if they play this game at the level they’ve played against other good teams that they’ve faced. This game is similar to the situation that unbeaten WAC champion Boise State was in last season as a 7 point underdog to Oklahoma (a 43-42 winner). While Hawaii played a pretty easy schedule they did play their best against the best teams they faced and they have the confidence that they can beat anyone. Teams with 1 loss or fewer are 22-6 ATS in bowl games as underdogs of 7 points or more (6- 0 ATS the last 4 years), so getting a touchdown or more with a team that is not used to losing has been a pretty good bet. I realize that Georgia played their best ball down the stretch, but they aren’t likely to continue to play at such a high level after having more than a month off. In fact, teams that finished the regular season by covering 3 or more consecutive games are just 40% ATS in bowl games since 1980 (51-76-2 ATS) when not facing a team also on a 3 game spread win streak.

I’ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.

Strong Opinion
Florida (-10.0) 37 Michigan 22 (at Capital One Bowl - Orlando) 10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Florida is the best team in the nation despite their 3 losses and the Gators spread attack should be no match for a Michigan team that was torched by the similar spread offenses of Appalachian State and Oregon early in the season. Florida’s offense is easily the best in the nation, as the Gators averaged 210 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per rushing play while Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow averaged a ridiculous 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Florida averaged a stunning 7.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while averaging 5.5 yppl or more against every team they faced. Michigan’s defensive numbers are good for the season, as the Wolverines yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. However, spread offenses with good running quarterbacks (i.e. Appalachian State and Oregon) gave the Wolverines trouble as Appalachian averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 34 points while Oregon racked up 610 total yards at 8.1 yppl and had 32 points at the half before calling off the dogs in a 39-7 victory at Ann Arbor. I’m sure Michigan will try to devise ways to defend the spread better than they did in those two games, but my math model projects 6.9 yppl and 38 points for Florida in this game if Michigan plays as well defensively as they did overall this season.

Michigan’s offense just isn’t good enough to keep up, as the Wolverines were 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Michigan was 0.1 yppl worse than average with running back Mike Hart, quarterback Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham all playing, but that’s still not good enough. Running against Florida is not easy (the Gators allowed just 3.8 yprp to teams that would average 4.9 yprp aginst an average team), but Henne and Manningham should have pretty good success against a sub-par Gators’ pass defense that allowed 6.2 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Michigan will probably be too conservative to take advantage of the only match-up that may work for them in this game and my math model projects 346 total yards at 5.1 yppl if they throw the ball a bit more than they run it instead of running it 53% of the time as they normally do.

In addition to dominating this game in total yards the Gators also have much better special teams than Michigan does and my math model favors Florida by 17 points. I’d like to play Florida here but the Gators apply to a negative 36-67-1 ATS Bowl angle that will keep me off of this game as a Best Bet. I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less and I’ll lean with the Gators if the line goes higher than 10 points.

Missouri (-3) vs Arkansas: My math favors Arkansas and the angles favor Missouri. I’ll call for Missouri by 3 points.

Texas Tech (-6) vs Virginia: I lean slightly with Texas Tech.

USC (-13 ½) vs Illinois: I lean slightly with Illinois.

VEGAS HOTSHEET ( 10-15 SO FAR)

Tuesday, January 1st
OUTBACK BOWL - 11:00am ET ESPN
463 Wisconsin 34
464 Tennessee 35
WISCONSIN +3½

COTTON BOWL - 11:30am ET FOX
465 Arkansas 27
466 Missouri 48
MISSOURI -3

CAPITAL ONE BOWL - 1:00pm ET ABC
467 Michigan 27
468 Florida 29
MICHIGAN +10

GATOR BOWL - 1:00pm ET CBS
469 Texas Tech 48
470 Virginia 28
TEXAS TECH -6

ROSE BOWL - 5:00pm ET ABC
471 Illinois 17
472 USC 38
USC -13½

SUGAR BOWL - 8:30pm ET FOX
473 Hawaii 42
474 Georgia 41
HAWAII +9

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: (8-13)-- 2-12 LAST 14

Outback Bowl
Wisconsin by 8

Cotton Bowl
Missouri by 1

Capital One Bowl
Michigan by 3

Gator Bowl
Virginia by 7 *BEST BET*

Rose Bowl
USC by 16

Sgar Bowl
Hawaii by 3

AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK

PLAY AGAINST the Heisman
Trophy winning team in a bowl
game that allows 3.0 > yards per
rush vs. an opponent that has
won 15 > of its last 22 games.
PLAY AGAINST:FLORIDA GATORS

HEISMAN HEX

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 11-1 (91%)

5* BEST BET
Michigan over Florida by 3
The last image of Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr that most
people have in their mind’s eye is that of a tired and beaten
man standing in a cold November rain, watching helplessly
as arch-rival Ohio State squashed his Wolverines to claim
the BIG 10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl. That defeat ran
Carr’s record against OSU’s Jim Tressel to an unacceptable 1-6
and prompted the 13-year skipper to call it quits. Michigan
has since hired West Virginia’s Rich Rodriguez to be the
new man in Ann Arbor but the UM brass have given Carr
one fi nal opportunity to leave as a winner when he leads
the Maize-and-Blue against defending national champion
Florida today. Carr’s counterpart, Gator head coach Urban
Meyer, won last year’s BCS title in just his second season at
Gainesville and steered his team to a 9-3 fi nish in ’07 with
some help from Heisman Trophy-winning QB Tim Tebow.
Florida’s season was strong enough to convince the linemaker
to install the Gators as 10-point favorites over Michigan,
the fi rst time since 1998 that the Wolverines will be taking
double digits. Meyer can claim a top-notch 26-2 SU record
in his career vs non-conference foes, as well as a 13-1 SU
& 11-3 ATS log when playing with rest, but those numbers
aren’t that superior to Carr’s 10-2 ATS mark as a dog versus
an opponent off back-to-back wins – numbers that sweeten
to 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS if Michigan comes in off an ATS loss.
Somewhat surprising is the stat that Heisman Trophy-winning
teams are a mere 7-18 ATS as bowlers since 1980, and an even
better 1-11 ATS when performing under the guidelines of
our AWESOME ANGLE (see page 2). But here’s what we think
is the most important number of all: Lloyd Carr has NEVER
lost 3 consecutive games SU, fashioning a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
record when playing off consecutive defeats. With a month
off for key offensive players like QB Chad Henne and RB Mike
Hart to heal late-season injuries, look for Michigan to cap its
nation-leading 33rd straight bowl appearance by winning
one for the Gipper.

4* BEST BET
Hawaii over Georgia by 3

Ladies and gentlemen, step right up and meet the Rodney
Dangerfi elds of college football circa 2007, the University of
Hawaii. Despite blowing away opponents en route to a 12-0
season, the Warriors’ perfect record earned them just a 10th
place ranking in the corrupt world of the BCS – and a chance
to take on a ‘real football team’ when they meet Georgia on
January 1st. Mark Richt’s Bulldogs did close out the season at
10-2, a ledger that includes impressive wins over SEC powers
Florida and Auburn (plus a sixth straight beating of intrastate
rival Georgia Tech). Even so, does Hawaii’s weak schedule and
Georgia’s SEC pedigree justify a near-double digit line? We
don’t think so. Richt has overpowered nearly all non-conference
opposition during his seven-year stint, winning 29 of 31 games
outright, but he’s struggled to a 6-12 ATS mark when favored
against non-SEC foes by 7 or more points. Meanwhile, WAC
bowl dogs are a solid 12-5-1 ATS – including 6-0-1 if they scored
20 or more points in their previous contest – and undefeated
bowlers are a spotless 5-0 when taking 8 or more points. The
real ace in the hole happens to be Hawaii QB Colt Brennan and
his 3rd-ranked offensive unit. When you’re backing an outfi t
that’s averaging 46 points and 529 yards per game, you can
be assured of one thing: should the Warriors fall behind, the
back door will be wide open all game long. One last thought
to ponder… Hawaii has scored 35 or more points in all but one
game this season, and in 23 of their last 25 since last year. New
Year’s Day (or later) bowl dogs that put 35 or more points on
the scoreboard are 22-0 ATS since 1980! Kipa Mai.

3* BEST BET

Wisconsin over Tennessee by 8

Tennessee HAS to be disappointed heading into this matchup.
After landing in the SEC Championship game, the Vols got to
square off against an LSU squad missing several key players
due to injury. Tennessee controlled most of that game and
led, 14-13, with just 10 minutes remaining. That’s when Vol
QB Erik Ainge went into full-blown choke mode, tossing
one interception that was returned for the go-ahead TD
and another pick deep in LSU territory that slammed the
door on a late scoring opportunity. By contrast, Wisconsin
will show up in Tampa buoyed by the knowledge that star
RB P. J. Hill may be healed enough from a leg injury to start
for the Badgers. Hill, who missed 13 of the last 15 quarters
of the regular season, performed so well in recent practices
that head coach Bret Bielema commented, “P. J. has been as
good as we’ve seen him since the time of the injury and we’re
excited about that.” We’re excited about Wisconsin’s chances,
too: the Badgers bring a superb 21-4 SU record under Bielema
to their ninth bowl appearance in the past 10 seasons – along
with some outstanding ATS credentials. The dog in the last 8
UW bowl games stands 7-1, the Badgers are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS
as bowlers since ’94 and BIG 10 bowl dogs are 20-9-1 versus
a foe off a SU loss (11-2-1 against a less than .750 opponent).
Despite Hill’s possible return to the Badger offense, the real key
in this game lies on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin
has held fi ve opponents to season low – or 2nd low – yards
this season while Tennessee’s stop unit was gashed for 500 or
more yards four times in 2007 (Vols allowed 8 ypg more than
they gained in 2007). Big Orange has also tasted little success
in recent postseason play, going just 2-5 SUATS in their last
seven tries and losing 20-10 as 4-point favorites against Penn
State last year. If things go as expected, Wisky coach Bielema
– who sports some of the sleekest gameday eyewear since
Chuck Amato led NC State – should like what he sees. We’re
donning red for today’s game and fully expect to ‘jump around’
after the Badgers claw their way to the outright win.

ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS ( 7-13 SO FAR )

Jan 1 Outback Bowl 5 Star Wisconsin over Tennessee

Jan 1 Cotton Bowl 4 Star Arkansas over Missouri

Jan 1 Capital One Bowl 2 Star FLORIDA over Michigan

Jan 1 Gator Bowl 2 Star Virginia over Texas Tech

Jan 1 Rose Bowl 3 Star Illinois over USC

Jan 1 Sugar Bowl 2 Star Hawaii over Georgia

MTI / KILLER SPORTS:

COLLEGE SYSTEM OF THE WEEK

Play ON a Bowl underdog
of 8 points or less with
28+ days rest off a SU win
in its last game and an
underdog SU win before
that.

SYSTEM ANALYSIS
With the 2007-08 College Bowl Season really
kicking off this week and weekend we are
finally able to share one of our Bowl POWER
SYSTEMS that is active for an upcoming Bowl
Game.
On Friday December 28th the Champs Sports
Bowl will be held in Orlando Florida with Big 10
Representative Michigan State facing Boston College
from the ACC. This match up is not the only
one this system qualifies this Bowl Season.
The Outback Bowl on January 1st has the
Wisconsin Badgers playing the Tennessee Volunteers
and this Power System is active in that Bowl
Game as well.
This particular POWER SYSTEM is not only
strong because of its perfect 10-0 ATS record since
1995 but as you can see from the chart below the
qualifying teams average covering the spread by
more than 15 points (15.9) per game.
The POWER SYSTEM itself is simple, what
we are doing is backing a Bowl team that has been
installed as a touchdown or less underdog who is
coming in off two SU wins including a momentum
and confidence building upset victory.
With the POWER SYSTEM parameters met
we will make this week’s PRO INFO SPORTS
College Football POWER SYSTEM of the Week
Play ON Michigan State plus the points in the
Champs Sports Bowl

CKO

OVER (60) in the Michigan-Florida game [Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1 in Orlando]—Gators’ spread too speedy for Wolverine defense, while QB Henne & RB Hart healthier now than much of the regular season

WILD BILL

Michigan + 9 1/2 (2 units) Wolverines in a state of flux, except they play vs Mr. Heisman-Jinx who's coming off a slightly broken hand. Wolverine Seniors want this!

Wisconsin + 3 (1 unit) Badgers undervalued, RB should be healthy to beat over-rated Vols

Illinois + 13 1/2 (3 units) Zook looking to win this one straight up and Illini quite capable.

Missouri -3 (3 units) Stronger offense vs a club with acting HC in Herring, not enough. Maclin the difference with special teams

Over 50 1/2 Illini-USC (5 units) QB Williams for Illini can give USC fits.

Over 69 Hawaii-Georgia (1 unit) QB for Hawaii could riddle Dawg secondary, QB for Dawgs also could have fun vs Rainbows.

Alex Smart

Missouri -3.0 / 1 units

Texas Tech -5.5 / 1 units

Ben Lewis

Michigan +10.5 (-110) / 3 units

Texas Tech Virginia o58.0 (-110) / 3 units

Illinois / USC o48.5 (-110) / 3 units

The P r e z

Missouri -3.0 (-110) / 10 units

Texas Tech-6.0 (-110) / 3 units

Texas Tech /Virginia o58.0 (-110) / 3 units