TOUTHOUSE
Sugar Bowl
Hawaii vs. Georgia
Hawaii +8.0
Tuesday January 1 ?08 8:30p
Certain stereotypes die hard, we suppose. Such as the argument that the gap remains wide between BCS and non-BCS conference powers. Which, depending on the matchup, might still prove true. But recent wins by ?outsiders? Utah (35-7 over Pitt in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl) and Boise State (who could forget that epic 43-42 thriller over Oklahoma in last year?s Fiesta?) in BCS bowls, not to mention some of the upsets during the just-completed regular season (remember Appalachian State over Michigan?) ought to dispel those notions?at least for the time being.
Still, just because Boise beat OU last year, and Utah whipped Pitt three years ago (a game in which the Utes were a rather prohibitive 14-point favorite, by the way), doesn?t mean Hawaii is going to do the same against Georgia. Indeed, there are some potentially troubling fundamental matchups for the Warriors to overcome in New Orleans, not to mention evidence that, at least based on its schedule, June Jones? bunch really doesn?t belong in the BCS, especially vs. a Bulldog team tested week in and week out by rugged SEC competition. Mainland travel has also often been a thorn for Hawaii teams and came very close to scuttling this season?s BCS plans, with UH experiencing narrow escapes at modest WAC outposts such as La Tech (45-44 in OT), San Jose State (42-35 in OT), and Nevada (28-26 on a last-second FG). And last time we checked, trips to Ruston, San Jose, and Reno sure aren?t to be confused with excursions to Tuscaloosa, Knoxville, or Jacksonville for a date vs. Florida, all of which UGa dealt with in ?07.
Thus, the challenge for the Warriors is for their defense not to be manhandled by a maturing Bulldog OL that began to open holes for breathtaking RS frosh RB Knowshon Moreno (1273 YR) as the season progressed and allowed soph QB Matthew Stafford ample time to look downfield for speedy deep-threat WRs Sean Bailey & Mohammed Massaquoi. Although most WAC observers believe Moreno might do significant damage, they also suggest this Hawaii ?D? is more fundamentally sound under 1st-year d.c. Greg McMackin (who has lots of NFL background) than it was under Jerry Glanville the past two seasons. In particular, McMackin?s in-game adjustments were invaluable, reflected in the fact Hawaii jumped from 93rd a year ago to 33rd in total defense stats this season.
But we?re not sure a bigger challenge doesn?t await a Georgia ?D? that admittedly dealt with a lot of firepower in ?07, but never had to cope with a strike force quite like the UH Red Gun piloted by sr. QB Colt Brennan, now healthy after throwing 38 TDP in 2007 after tossing 58 a year ago. Brennan?s prolific squadron of wideouts will allow the Red Gun to keep firing for a full 60 minutes. And even if the Bulldogs extend the margin, keeping the back door ?shut? against Brennan might be easier said than done
Armvin Sports
Cfb
1/1/2008
Michigan 10.5
Cfb
1/1/2008
Illinois 13.5
Cfb
1/1/2008
Hawaii 7.5
Cbb
1/1/2008
Louisville -13.5
Nhl
1/1/2008
Ottawa -170
Dominic David
3* Missouri
2* Over Usc/Ill
2* Over Texas Tech/Virginia
1* Wisconsin
1* Over Goergia/Hawaii
Reply With Quote
NORTHCOAST:
Late Phone Selections:
Bowl Game of the Year: 5* Over 59.5 Michigan/Florida @1 pm ET (Triple Play) Marquee Totals Play
4* Georgia -7.5 vs Hawaii @ 8:30 pm Et
Other Star Rated Selections:
No selections at this time
Top Opinions
USC -14 vs Illinois (Rose Bowl) @5:00 pm ET
Under 49 USC/Illinois (Triple Play) Marquee Totals Play
Tennessee -2 vs Wisconsin (Outback Bowl) @11 am ET
Missouri -3 vs Arkansas @11:30 am ET
Regular Opinions
Over 56.5 Wisconsin/Tennessee (Double Play) Marquee Totals Play
Over 66.5 Arkansas/Missouri (Double Play) Marquee Totals Play
Michigan +10.5 vs Florida @ 1 pm ET (Capital One Bowl)
Virginia +6 vs Texas Tech @1 pm ET (Gator Bowl)
Under 59 Virginia/Texas Tech @ 1 pm ET (Single Play) Marquee Totals Play
Had to Pick'ems
Over 68.5 Hawaii/Georgia @ 1 pm ET (Single Play) Marquee Totals Play
Seabass early
20 Wisconsin
50 Arkansas
Stan Sharp
CFB Side
triple-dime bet Georgia -7.5 vs Hawaii
Analysis: It's been a nice ride for Hawaii but the Clock strikes Midnight tonight for Cinderella. Hawaii can score but they can't stop anyone from scoring. Boise St pulled off the upset last year in this exact spot but Oklahoma looked right past Boise St. After what happened to Oklahoma last year do you think that Georgia is going to look past Hawaii. How many times do you think the Georgia coaching staff showed the players the rerun of last years Oklahoma/Boise St Game. Georgia wears Hawaii down in the second half and pulls away to a Double digit win.
TAKE GEORGIA as STAN'S BOWL BLOWOUT BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
Point Train
GATOR BOWL CHOMP DOWN
VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (+5.5) over Texas Tech Red Raiders
Rating: 3 units
Virginia (+) over Texas Tech at 1:00 pm EST Not much was expected of this Virginia team coming into the season but it has done more with less than any other team in the country in going 9-3 and reaching the Gator Bowl. HC Al Groh has his team extremely motivated and the Cavs will come out firing on all cylinders in this game. They have been doubted throughout the season but these Cavs keep proving the doubters wrong, going 4-1 ATS as the underdog. Virginia is getting 5.5 points in this game, the most it has gotten all season. Expect the Cavs to cash in on that in this game. This game features very contrasting styles, with Virginia winning with defense and Texas Tech winning with offense. Defense almost always wins out in these situations and this game will be no different. The Cavs are 13th in the nation with just 18.8 points allowed per game and 16th with 323.4 total yards allowed per game. Much of Virginia’s success comes up front with Chris Long, son of Howie Long, leading the nation’s 6th-best pass rush. Virginia, led by Long’s 14 sacks, has 40 quarterback takedowns this year. That doesn’t bode well for a Texas Tech offense that is predicated heavily on timing. The Red Raiders lead the country in pass offense but they haven’t had to contend with a pass rush like Virginia’s. The Cavs will consistently put pressure on Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell, making things difficult for him throughout. The Virginia offense hasn’t been great this year but it doesn’t have to be against the Red Raiders defense. Texas Tech has allowed 27 or more points in four of its last five games, allowing a robust 39.5 ppg in those four contests. The Cavaliers offense doesn’t put up huge numbers but it takes care of the ball and is very opportunistic. The Cavs have proven the doubters wrong all season and will continue to do so in this game. Seven of Virginia’s 12 games have been decided by five points or less. This one will be no different. Ride with the Cavs.
ROSE BOWL TOTAL DOMINATOR
OVER 50,ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI -vs-Southern California Trojans
Rating: 3 units
OVER Illinois vs. USC at 5:00 pm EST Both of these defenses will get a dose of offenses they haven’t seen before and it will result in a surprisingly high-scoring game. Both teams have won with defense throughout the year but different offensive philosophies will throw each stop unit for a loop. USC hasn’t had to deal with many mobile quarterbacks this year but when it has the results haven’t been favorable. The Trojans allowed 24 points to both Oregon and Washington, which feature running QBs in Dennis Dixon and Jake Locker, respectively. Illinois QB Juice Williams is one of the top running quarterbacks in the game and, much like he did against Ohio State’s skilled defense, he’ll give the USC defense fits. Illinois’ defense has put up some impressive stats but those stats came against much weaker Big Ten offenses. Trojans HC Pete Carroll runs a much more sophisticated offensive attack that will give the Illini fits. Senior QB John David Booty, who threw for 391 yards and four scores in last year’s Rose Bowl, could very well put up those numbers again. Give Carroll enough time and he’ll find a way to score on any team. With more than a month to prepare for Illinois, the Trojans will have no problem scoring, caring this game over the total. This one's going Over.
SUGAR BOWL SHOOTOUT
GEORGIA BULLDOGS (-7.5) over Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Rating: 3 units
Georgia (-) over Hawaii at 8:30 pm EST Boise State gave non-BCS schools like Hawaii hope when it defeated Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl last year. This Hawaii team is no Boise State, though, which will make all the difference. The 2006 Boise State team absolutely dominated opposing teams in going undefeated through the regular season. This 2007 Hawaii team can’t say that as five of its wins came by a touchdown or less. Which wouldn’t necessarily be that bad against SEC competition but Hawaii has not played a team of SEC caliber this season. Those five single-digit wins came against Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Fresno State, Nevada and Washington, which went a combined 28-34 on the year, with only Fresno State boasting a winning record. Georgia, on the other hand, has been playing SEC-caliber competition all season long. After a relatively slow start, the Bulldogs have come on like gangbusters down the stretch, winning their last six contests coming into the Sugar Bowl. Five of those six wins have come by double digits, with those five losers combining to go 39-21 on the season. Hawaii will just be the next in line to fall to the ‘Dogs. The Bulldog winning streak has been a perfect combination of offense and defense. Georgia has averaged 37.2 ppg over its last six games while allowing just 22.8 ppg. Hawaii hasn’t faced an offense or defense the caliber of Georgia’s this year. Only two of Hawaii’s 12 opponents have or will play in a bowl game while seven of Georgia’s 12 reached the postseason. Georgia is just much more prepared to play in a game of this level. Hawaii doesn’t have the talent on either side of the ball to keep pace. Ride with Bulldogs.
ASA bowl total of the year
Tennessee/Wisconsin OVER
David Page
PREMIUM PLAYS
NCF Tennessee
Wisconsin +2 (+100)
Florida -10.5 (-108)
NCB (HOOPS)
Cincinnati +13.5 (-107)
Alabama +2 (-107)
BILL HILTON GAMEDAY SPORTS
NEW YEARS DAY 5 STAR!!!!
New Year's Day:
#467 - 5*MICHIGAN+11 vs Florida
#472 - 3*SOUTH CAL-14 vs Illinois
#466 - 2*MISSOURI-3 vs Arkansas
#468 - 2*WISCONSIN +1' vs Tennessee
"Lean" to Virginia & Hawaii
Michael Cannon
Michael Cannon
25 Dime –
VIRGINIA
Take the points with Virginia today in the Gator Bowl over Texas Tech.
Virginia has been a solid team this year, and it was led by a defense that held the opposition to 18.8 ppg and 325 ypg. They held 10 of their 12 opponents to 23 points or fewer, with six of them scoring 17 or less. Chris Long, Howie’s son, is the ACC defensive player of the year and ranked third in the nation in sacks.
I don’t know what it is, but I just can’t trust the kind of offense Texas Tech runs in a bowl game. There’s no question Graham Harrell can sling it with the best of them, but when it comes down to crunch time can they get it done in this type of setting?
In the Red Raiders’ bowl game last year they had all the statistical advantages over a very weak Minnesota secondary, but they had to pull off a huge comeback just to get the win and never threatened to cover.
Texas Tech was 3-1 ATS as a road favorite this year, while Virginia went 3-0 ATS as a road underdog.
The Red Raiders are 2-5 ATS as a favorite in bowl games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against winning teams.
The Cavaliers have just enough offense to keep themselves within this number and have played solid football all season long.
Take the points with Virginia as they grab the cash for us in the Gator Bowl.
10 Dime –
MISSOURI
Take Missouri minus the number this morning over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.
Is it me or does it feel like Missouri got the shaft this bowl season? They only lost to one team all season, Oklahoma, and beat BCS-bound Illinois and Kansas on neutral fields.
So why did the latter two get better invitations?
It’s hard to say but I think it will serve more as a motivating tool than a distraction.
As for Arkansas, running back Darren McFadden was wrapped up in a controversy surrounding his involvement with an agent and the purchasing of a new SUV. It looks like he’ll play, but you have to wonder why he would even want to?
McFadden has everything to lose and nothing to gain by playing in this game. He’s going to be a Top 3 pick in the NFL draft, and it’s not like he’s playing for the national championship here. One bad injury and he could lose out on millions of dollars.
Plus you have the coaching distraction of Houston Nutt’s departure and the strange hiring of Bobby Petrino. The Razorbacks will be coached by defensive coordinator Reggie Herring for this game, but the way their stop unit played down the stretch that might not be such a good thing.
Arkansas surrendered 149 points in the last four games, including 31 to a Mississippi State team that would have trouble moving the ball against some high schools.
Now they’re going to step it up and contain Chase Daniel and the high-octane passing offense of Missouri?
I just don’t see it happening here.
Arkansas is mired in a 3-12 funk in bowl games (4-11 ATS) dating to 1979, including last year’s 17-14 loss to Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl. The Razorbacks are also 3-6-1 all-time in the Cotton Bowl (1-2 ATS).
Missouri is on spread runs of 11-3 overall, 8-2 as a favorite, 8-2 against winning teams, 5-1 in neutral-site games and 5-0 against non-league foes.
Lay the points with Missouri as they grab the win and cover over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.
USC
Lay the points with Usc in the Rose Bowl over Illinois.
You can argue that nobody in the nation is playing better football than Usc is right now. They are finally healthy and that could spell big trouble for Illinois.
I personally believe Usc is the most talented team in the nation and would side with them over each of the two BCS championship teams.
The Trojans’ defense is too fast and athletic for Illinois quarterback Juice Williams to be much of a factor here. In fact, he’ll probably be exposed for what he really is, an athlete who can’t read defenses.
The Illini love to run it on offense, but they’re going against a Trojans defense that gave up just 16 ppg and 258.8 ypg, including 79.2 ypg rushing.
The Usc offense will hold up its end of the bargain behind quarterback John David Booty and a deep group of tailbacks led by Chauncey Washington.
The Illini are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 on grass and 1-5 ATS in their last six non-Big Ten contests.
Usc is on spread runs of 19-7 in non-conference games, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 as a favorite, 6-0 against the Big Ten and 9-3 against teams with a winning record.
Take USC minus the points as they grab the win and cover in the Rose Bowl.
5 Dime –
FLORIDA
Take Florida minus the number over Michigan in the Capital One Bowl.
It’s no secret the Wolverines had trouble with spread offenses this year, and if there’s one coach who can exploit that again it’s Florida’s Urban Meyer.
Meyer has the ultimate quarterback for this offense in Tim Tebow. The Heisman Trophy winner can run it just as good as he can pass it, which will keep a slow, plodding Michigan defense on its heels the whole game.
Florida just has too much overall team speed for Michigan to overcome. The Wolverines played much better when it was a hat-on-hat, smashmouth type of game but they won’t see that today.
Michigan has also struggled in bowl games under the recently retired Lloyd Carr, going 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS. They have lost four consecutive bowls following last year’s 32-18 loss to Usc in the Rose Bowl.
Meyer has won four-straight bowl games going 4-0 ATS, including two in a row since arriving in Gainesville.
VIRGINIA
PPP (Joe Gavassi)
4* Missouri
1* Wisky
KEITH MARTIN
Illinois St. Over 119
The Lock Line
NCAAF
Misssouri
Over Florida
Georgia
NCAABB
Illinois St.
5* Rocketman Virg +6
5* Triple Crown Georgia -8
5* Stan Lisowski USC/Ill under 49
Real Animal
4.5 Missouri
4 Michigan over
Chris Jordan
200♦ FLORIDA - When the going gets tough, the Wolverines get going. It's that simple.
And just as we saw Michigan struggle against Ohio State in the finale, and Oregon in the second game of the season, we're going to see it stumble in Lloyd Carr's swan song.
Unless a team is inline for an undefeated campaign – which was near impossible for every team this season – there are the general hiccups during the season for every prominent team. With Florida, which let's not forget – under Urban Meyer – ripped Ohio State to shreds last season, it believes this was a disappointing campaign because a pair of losses in the middle of its season.
After a 4-0 start to the campaign, the Gators were tripped up abruptly by Auburn, LSU and Georgia before closing the regular season on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak, including a 45-12 beat down of intra-state rival Florida State as a 14-point home favorite in the season finale.
Florida’s three losses came by an average margin of a little more than six points per setback, but it rebounded nicely, and I honestly believe we're going to see Meyer's troops heading into this one motivated for a blowout victory over the mentally constipated Wolverines.
Sure, the Wolverines will be looking to win one for Lloyd Carr, not to mention the slew of seniors on this team, but this is what is called a signature game for the Gators, a springboard if you will for the 2008 season, something the Gators wish they could start next week. Carr is 5-7 in Bowl games at Michigan, and Meyer is 4-0 in his last four – two with Utah and two with Florida.
Make it five straight with this blowout win of the Wolverines.
100♦ TEXAS TECH - I do realize the Raiders stumbled down the stretch this season, and certainly was shockingly bad for being the top offense in the nation at one point, but I've watched one too many teams that struggled down the stretch come back prepared for the postseason.
The one high note I take into this one, from that end-of-the-season run, was the Raiders' 34-27 upset win over Oklahoma as a 7-1/2 point home underdog. And the Sooners were supposed to be a team playing in the BCS Title game.
This is a dangerous team, I am telling you this right now, and keep in mind the straight-up winner in Tech's 11 games with a point spread, covered the number in 10 of those games - including the last nine in a row.
This is a big day for the Red Raiders, as they make their first postseason appearance on New Year's Day since 1954, and they come into this postseason off last year's most exciting bowl game, in which they came back from a 28-point deficit to knock off Minnesota, 44-41. Think those returning players remember that … I do.
I certainly don't believe the Cavaliers have the offensive horses to keep up with an offense that averaged exactly 50 points per game in their first seven games – winning six of them. And even after that, the Raiders averaged 30.2 points over their last five games. Virginia can't get close to those numbers, as it averaged just 24 points and 328.7 yards per game, while putting up 21 or less in four of its last six outings.
Guys, play the more explosive Red Raiders in this one.
50♦ LOUISVILLE - We're going to lay the points in this old-school rivalry from the Conference USA, as the Bearcats have shown vulnerability on the road, where they've lost all four of their games. Granted, they snapped an ugly skid with a six-point win on Saturday, and they've covered four straight, but ever since Louisville lost to Purdue, Rick Pitino has had his troops rolling. The Cardinals, albeit they've beaten some cupcakes, have rebuilt their confidence by winning four straight by an average margin of 17.5 points. They come into this one off a 31-point drubbing of Iona, on Saturday, and should have no trouble getting up for this one.
50♦ CLEMSON - The Tigers may have had disappointment last night on the gridiron, but leave it to the cagers to lift the spirits of this school as the winning continues. I know it's a tough chore for the Tigers on the road today, but they're laying points for a reason, and it's likely because they're 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS when playing away from home. I realize Alabama is 10-3 this season – including a 7-1 mark at home, but only four of those eight home games ever made it to the betting board – meaning the Tide will face their first big test of the season today. And with Clemson out-distancing teams by 10 when its traveling, I like my chances in playing the road team in this one.
Chuck Franklin
2000♦ USC
This will be the first of my two absolute blowout winners today. How did Illinois even get to this game? Oh yeah, they beat Ohio State. But what about the three losses thay had? They will be no contest for Pete Carroll's USC. The Trojans are 6-1 SU and ATS in seven New Years day or later bowls under Carroll. The last three Southern Cal Rose Bowl wins were by an average of 16 points per game. The Trojans only allowed 79 yards rushing per game this season and will stop the Illinois ground game with ease today. USC is 6-0 SU and ATS the last six games played against the Big 10. I hope the Illinois players had fun in California up until today because they will have no fun in this rout!
2500♦ GEORGIA
A WAC team is not quite ready to beat an SEC team in the Sugar Bowl. The last time Georgia faced a pretty good WAC team it was in a 48-13 rout over Boise State at the start of the 2005 season. This Hawaii team is in for the same kind of beating today. Georgia played nine bowl eligible teams this season and went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Hawaii faced only three and went 1-2 ATS. There will be lots of Dawgs fans in New Orleans today and they will outnumber Hawaii fans 20-1. That home field edge will be intimidating to the Hawaii players. More important to the outcome of this game will be the speed of the Georgia players. They will be able to shut down Colt Brennan and fluster the Warriors right from the start. Absolute Blowout!
Drew Gordon
1. 100,000♦ Illinois
1. Illinois- Granted, the Trojans come into this game playing some of the best football in the country, but oddsmakers went a little to far with the number on this contest. Its not that I don't think USC is a good team, because they're excellent, but the fact of the matter is the Illini have seen top-tier defenses before and come out on top (see 28-21 win at Ohio State) thanks to dual threat QB Juice Williams.
Williams is in the same mold as as Oregon's Dennis Dixon, except not as accomplished a passer, and we saw what Dixon did to this Trojans defense. True, they were unable to grab the cash, but if Dixon ran for 76 yards and a touchdown, then Williams can wreak some havoc too. Before you go dismissing Williams, note that in his last 3 weeks he's tossed 7 TDs and just 2 picks, including his 4 TD performance against a vaunted Ohio State defense.
Herein lies the edge for the Illini, as they not only have Williams scrambling, but also stud RB Mendenhall, who rushed for 1312 yards and 17 combined TDs. The Illini run game averages a whopping 266 yards rushing per game, and despite the Trojans rock-solid run defense, stopping this Illini offense won't be as easy as everyone is making it out to be. If they can rush for 260 on 5.1 yards per carry against Ohio State, then they can make enough headway to cover the bloated number against Southern Cal.
Finally, try and remember guys this isn't the Leinart/Bush-led Trojans team of yesteryear. They still have a stable of talented running backs, but you've got John David Booty taking the snaps, throwing to some good, but not great wide receivers. The fact the Trojans are just 3-5 ATS when laying double-digits this season cannot be ignored, as they demonstrated in their win, but failure to cover against UCLA in the season finale. More of the same this afternoon, as the Trojans most likely win, but the Illini don't go down without a fight, grabbing the cash in the process.
Take Illinois plus the points over Southern California in today's Rose Bowl.
Joel Tyson
COLLEGE HOOPS
30 DIME
CLEMSON
The Clemson Tigers roll into Alabama today once again starting their season as they normally do, untouchable. The Tigers come in 10-1 overall and 5-3 versus the spread.
They face this Crismon tide team that finds themselves sitting at 9-3 SU and 3-4 ATS.
The Tigers wil be looking to rebound after their loss last time out 85-82 against Mississippi.
No better time to rebound than today as Clemson finds themselves 5-1 ATS in their last six when taking on the SEC. The Tigers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference contests, and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the highway.
Although Bama comes in with wins in seven of their last ten, the wins have come against far less superior talant than they face here today. The wins have come against the likes of Iowa State, Texas Pan America, Wofford, etc,,. nothing like they see tonight.
The Tigers claw and win this one going away.
COLLEGE BOWLS
25 DIME
FLORIDA
Can Michigan step up and show they have heart today? I don't think so when they face this Florida team that finds themselves stepping down in class from a national championship birth last year that led to them winning it all.
Florida comes in with Tim Tebow that passed for 20 TDs and ran for another 20 on the year. Florida enters this game seeing their offense average 43 points per game.
Michigan under coach Lloyd Carr realize this is his final time on the sideline. This however will have little impact on this team that started the seson with an opening loss to App St, then to Oregon and concluded with back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State.
My strong feel today is that Florida gets the relatively easy win and cover.
15 DIME
TENNESSEE
The Vols enter tonight much rather be playing in a game with BCS implications. Instead after their loss to LSU in the SEC championship they find themselves here in this spot for the second straight year,
Tonight they look to prove a point, and prove a point I feel they will. The Vols are averaging 33.4 ppg, which is more than the Wisconsin Badgers that they take on tonight. The guys in Orange show a balanced attacked that utilizes 1000 yard receiver Lucas Taylor, and 1000 yard rusher Adrian Foster. If these two are not enough to convince you lets throw in the fact that quarterback Erik Ainge has thrown for over 3000 yards and 29 touchdowns.
The Volunteer offense out of the SEC should have no problems getting things rolling against this Badger defense that allowed 30.80 ppg and over 400 ypg when playing away from home.
The Vols roll today.