New Year's Recap
By Micah Roberts
After their collective New Years day performance, the Big Ten Conference should rename their new divisions “Phonies” and “Frauds” rather than “Legends“and “Leaders“. Their 0-5 performance against three SEC teams, a Big-12 team and a Mountain West team was one of the biggest displays of a conference melt down ever seen. There were only six games on New Years day, and the Big Ten lost five of them.
Against the SEC alone, they were outscored 138-45 with Michigan State getting blasted by Alabama, Michigan allowing the most points ever in their bowl history against Mississippi State and Penn State falling to Florida. Making matters look even worse for the conference was their newest member for the 2011 season, Nebraska, falling to Washington as a 14-point favorite.
So what does that say for the leader of the conference, Ohio State, as they matchup against another SEC team Tuesday night with Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl? The Buckeyes are 3½-point favorites, but they’re playing in the heart of SEC country and have faltered over the years when playing BCS bowls against SEC teams like LSU and Florida over the years. In fact, they have lost none straight bowls when playing SEC teams.
Thus far throughout the Bowl season the Big Ten is 2-5 in bowls after going 4-3 last year which included big wins by the conference leaders with Ohio State beating PAC-10 Champion Oregon and Iowa taking care of the ACC Champion Georgia Tech. By the looks of how co-leaders Wisconsin and Michigan State looked, it’s hard to make a case for the Buckeyes and just how good they really are. True, they are 11-1 and Arkansas and 10-2, but beating up on Big Ten teams now seems to be less of an achievement after watching all those teams they beat get exposed.
When looking at Arkansas’ only two losses to then No. 1 Alabama and current No. 1 Auburn and seeing how strong they closed out the season, they kind of get higher marks now on the basis of the SEC proving conference supremacy over the Big Ten. During the year, the Razorbacks put up the fourth most passing yards in the nation and averaged 37.3 point-per-game led by quarterback Ryan Mallett. On top of the potent aerial attack, they also come strong with 150 rushing yards per game with an attack that will give the Buckeyes some trouble. The only team the Buckeyes faced this year that comes close to Arkansas’ attack was Wisconsin and they lost that game 31-18.
On top of all the history and statistics, the Buckeyes also have a cloud hanging over them due to five players being suspended for the first five games next season, yet are allowed to play in this bowl game. One of the players involved, quarterback Terrelle Pryor, has had to deal with all the questions about the matter on a daily basis. How focused will he be for this game, and even if he is, will it matter? Pryor has been good in games when getting an early lead, but he has been one of the absolute worst in the country when trying to lead his team back from a deficit.
I had initially liked the Buckeyes in this match when the pairings came out and after pounding on the point that the SEC is much better, it may sound like I have changed my mind, but I haven’t. When comparing all the Big Ten bowl losses, all those teams were supposed to lose according to the ratings where they were all considerable underdogs with Wisconsin playing perhaps the best team in the Nation as 3-point underdogs. The Illinois and Iowa wins for the conference were basically pick ‘em games. I’m going to stay with the trend of following the power ratings and take the team rated higher. In this case it is Ohio State, who I initially had as 6-point favorites in my own personal ratings. On a side note, Mallett once played for Michigan as a freshman and participated in a 14-3 loss to the Buckeyes. Pick: Ohio State 37-23
Later in the week, we get to pick on another MAC team taking Middle Tennessee State who opened as a 2-point underdog, but are now minus-1 against Miami-Ohio. On Friday, I’ll be looking to bet on LSU over Texas A&M. Then on Saturday, I’ll hope that line drops more on Nevada against Boston College in a game being played in San Francisco. The Wolf Pack opened as a 9½-point favorite but have been bet against dropping the line to minus-7½ at most sports books.
As for the big game between No. 2 Oregon and No. 1 Auburn on Monday, I’m kind of torn between the two and fully expect to see lots of points scored eclipsing the posted total of 74½. Between the two teams, they have combined to score 92.3 points-per-game and neither of the defenses have been tough to score on. On one side, you have Auburn’s huge offensive and defensive lines against the smaller Ducks, but the speed of the Oregon will be something Auburn hasn’t seen all year. Pick: Auburn 44 Oregon 39