Newsletters - 10/08 - 10/10

Alabama (-6½) MISSISSIPPI 12:00 PM
Although many rated these teams equally before the start of the season and pointed to this
game as the key decider in the SEC West, Alabama has been the vastly superior team at this
point in the season. The Tide has faced a far more challenging schedule and posted nearly 90
more yards per game on offense while allowing over 50 fewer yards per game. Ole Miss has
only allowed around eleven points per game but the Rebels were losers in their only
challenging game so far this season. Alabama is 4-1 ATS even with inflated spreads and the
lone miss was still a 26-point w in. Jevan Snead came into the season as a much more well
regarded QB but Greg McElroy has out-played him in every way so far this year for Alabama.
Mississippi has covered in four consecutive games in this series but Alabama has won each
of those games and this will be the lowest line the series has seen since 2003. Alabama is
facing a second straight SEC road game but there will be no surprises from the Rebels this
year and Ole Miss has appeared like a team that is not ready to perform when the lights are
shining the brightest. This will be the first FBS home game for Mississippi but Alabama has
handled tough road environments well. ALABAMA BY 10

TEMPLE (-14) Ball State 12:00 PM
After a perfect regular season last year Ball State is off to a 0-5 start but there have been
encouraging signs in recent weeks. The Cardinals have covered in both road games this
season and probably deserved to cover last week, leading most of the way until a frantic
fourth quarter. There have been plenty of growing pains for freshmen QB Kelly Page but he
has shown some improvement and actually has completed passes at a higher rate than
Temple QB Vaughn Charlton. Temple has won two straight games in fairly impressive fashion
but this is not a team accustomed to playing games as heavy favorites. Temple has only
averaged 22 points per game which will make a double-digit spread difficult to cover and the
big home win over Buffalo that the Owls are getting a lot of credit for featured a big turnover
advantage including scores on an interception and a kickoff. TEMPLE BY 7

Vanderbilt (-11½) ARMY 11:00 AM
Both teams are 2-3 but Army has faced a much easier schedule. The Cadets played fairly
even statistical games the past two weeks but suffered losses and last week’s loss came
painfully as a lead was extinguished late. Army has failed to cover in four straight games but
value should be back this week. Vanderbilt is 2-0 ATS on the road this season but in three
different games the Commodores have failed to reach double-digits on the scoreboard. Both
teams have very good numbers on defense but this is a match-up where Army should have a
solid rushing edge and Vanderbilt is a fairly banged up team coming off a physical defensive
battle last week. Vanderbilt has been vulnerable against the run this season and laying
double-digits on the road will be problematic in this match-up. Army has been overmatched in
a few games but this will be a tougher than expected departure from the SEC for the
Commodores. Army has been a risky team to back but will hang on here. VANDERBLT BY 6

WYOMING (-10) New Mexico 1:00 PM
It looked like it would be a tough rebuilding year for New Mexico but few envisioned this
difficult of a start for a team that is typically a perennial bowl contender. New Mexico is
allowing 434 yards per game while gaining only 295 per game. The scoring numbers are
much worse as the Lobos have averaged less than 15 points per game. New Mexico has
covered in eight of the last nine meetings in this series but despite also going through a
coaching change, Wyoming is off to a 3-2 start. New Mexico shut out Wyoming last season
but signs point towards a Cowboy revenge win this year. Wyoming has developed a solid
rushing attack this season and defensively the Cowboys have been capable even with two Big
XII opponents already through the schedule. Wyoming does enter this game off back-to-back
S/U wins as underdogs while New Mexico enters coming off its first ATS win of the year. It
was still a 20-point loss however and 21-points were scored in the fourth quarter after the
game was out of hand. Texas Tech also lost its starting QB in the game so the Lobos should
not be given much credit for seemingly staying close. WYOMING BY 17

Houston (-3) MISSISSIPPI STATE 12:00 PM
The Cougars have posted incredible num bers on offense but last week the team could not
handle the pressure of being a highly ranked favorite in an ugly loss to UTEP. Houston has
two big wins on its resume and this would be another solid win over a major conference
program. Even with two Big XII foes under its belt the Cougars have played a much weaker
schedule than Mississippi State as the Bulldogs have already played three SEC games plus a
tough non-conference tilt with Georgia Tech last week. MSU has out-gained its opponents
each of the last three weeks but there is only one win to show for it. Mississippi State has
been the clearly superior defensive team but this could be a problematic match-up as the
Bulldogs may not have the personnel to keep up in a shootout. Mississippi State will have a
significant rushing edge in this game as The Bulldogs are running for 205 yards per game.
Houston is still overvalued and Mississippi State will be a in a favorable situation as a home
underdog with the ground advantage. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 7

Arizona (-2½) WASHINGTON 9:00 PM
Washington has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation but at 2-3 this is a team
that has been exposed for some serious defensive liabilities. Washington is allowing nearly
410 yards per game and the Huskies have been out-gained in each of the last four weeks
despite splitting the decisions. QB Locker has made some great plays but he is only
completing 57 percent of his passes. Arizona’s lone loss came on the road in a competitive
game at Iowa and that loss does not look too damaging at this point. Despite facing a second
straight road contest with long travel the Wildcats rebounded with an upset at Oregon State
and an off week precedes this match-up while Washington travels home after a narrow and
chaotic defeat at Notre Dame. Arizona has scored 48 points against Washington each of the
last two years and given the emergence of a reliable running game the Wildcats could put up
big numbers again this year. Washington has had far more national exposure but Arizona
could quietly emerge as one of the teams to beat in the Pac-10 and Washington is still a team
that has done plenty of losing despite coming up with one big win. ARIZONA BY 7

Bowling Green (-6½) KENT STATE 2:30 PM
After an opening upset over Troy, Bowling Green has now gone on to lose four consecutive
games. The Falcons are a pass-first team that averages only 75 yards per game on the
ground and the inability to control the clock has taken a toll as the defense is allowing a lot of
second-half points. QB Spencer Keith took most of the snaps last week for Kent State but
Bowling Green should expect to get more polished QB play this week. The Flashes have been
slightly stronger on defense but the drastic difference in strength of schedule likely more than
makes up the deficit. Kent State is scoring just 16 points per game despite facing fairly
marginal defensive opposition for the most part. Bowling Green has been an excellent ATS
team on the road in recent years with an 11-1 ATS mark in the last twelve games while on the
contrary Kent State has been lousy at home, covering in just three of the last 13 home games.
An underachieving Falcons team won with relative ease last season as the Flashes had
problems containing QB Sheehan in the air and on the ground. BOWLING GREEN BY 17

Stanford (-2½) OREGON STATE 6:00 PM
At 4-1 Stanford has taken great strides to getting back to the post season but a glance at the
schedule ahead will assure that it is far from a sure thing. The Cardinal is 3-0 in the Pac -10
coming off a huge win over UCLA last week and the lone loss on the season came in a game
that Stanford led most of the way. Oregon State bounced back from back-to-back losses with
an upset win at Arizona State in a game where the Beavers were significantly out-gained.
Stanford is dangerous even on the road because the running game has been incredibly
effective with an average of 222 yards per game. Oregon State features one of the better run
defenses in the nation however so this could be a tough match-up for both teams. These
teams should rate rather equally and this will be a big revenge game for the Beavers as
Stanford won to open the season last year in a game Oregon State dominated statistically. It
is difficult to say what Stanford will be able to do on the road as the best wins have come at
home and beating Washington State on the road offers little insight. Oregon State still holds a
strong home field edge and the Beavers are underrated right now . OREGON STATE BY 4

TENNESSEE (PK) Georgia 11:00 AM
Georgia already has two losses on the year but the Bulldogs have played one of the toughest
schedules in the nation. Georgia also owns one of the worst turnover margins in the nation.
While Georgia is scoring 27 points per game the yardage has not been terribly impressive and
the running game has been limited. Tennessee will be a tough team to run against and the
Volunteers will be desperate to avoid starting the SEC season 0-3. Tennessee has covered in
four of the last five meetings in this series and Georgia is now just 1-4 ATS on the season.
Tennessee has been a successful rushing team, averaging 188 yards per game and with the
QB mistakes that have been costly the Volunteers should aim to grind out this game making
an attractive situation for the home team. Georgia QB Joe Cox has already pitched six
interceptions and facing a play -making secondary could be problematic. Although Georgia’s
two losses have been close calls, the Bulldog wins have been narrow escapes and this is not
a team deserving of road favoritism in a still treacherous SEC venue. Tennessee has
problems but this is a must-win game. TENNESSEE BY 6

Marshall (-3) TULANE 2:30 PM
The Thundering Herd out-gained and out-rushed East Carolina at home last week but could
not pull off a third consecutive upset in a narrow defeat. Tulane took the lead late against
Army to make two straight wins after an ugly start to the season. These teams have not met
since ’06 and things have changed quite a bit for these squads. Tulane is more of a passoriented
offensive team this season and this will likely be the fifth straight game that the Wave
are out-rushed. Marshall is averaging 173 yards per game on the ground but finding the end
zone has been difficult, averaging just 20 points per game. Marshall has been very good
defensively outside of the Virginia Tech game but this is also a team that is not accustomed to
being a road favorite. The Herd is just 2-10-1 the last 13 games as road favorites, but the
Wave are just as bad as home underdogs. QB Joe Kemp is completing nearly 66 percent of
his passes this season but siding with the rushing team makes sense here particularly on the
quick turf. Tulane was fortunate to win last week and Marshall’s wins have been more
impressive so far this season. MARSHALL BY 7

TEXAS TECH (-17) Kansas State 12:00 PM
In last week’s easy win over New Mexico, Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts was knocked out and
he is unlikely to play in this game. Back-up Steven Sheffield played well in relief but there will
be an upgrade in competition this week. Texas Tech already has two losses after losing just
two games all of last season. The offense has put up big numbers but not overwhelming
numbers and the defense is allowing 362 yards per game. Statistically Kansas State looks
much better than the product on the field as the Wildcats have inflated numbers through two
FCS wins. Last week’s win over Iowa State was a big boost but certainly some breaks were
caught in that victory. Texas Tech has won and covered in each of the last five meetings
between these teams and the Wildcats have been a lousy road team in recent years. While
Texas Tech is using a new QB out of necessity, Kansas State made a QB switch last week as
well as Grant Gregory had an impressive game and provides mobility. Texas Tech still has
what it takes to pull away in this game and the QB injury will create great value in a match-up
featuring inexperience at the position on both sides. Texas Tech played Texas very tough and
was in position to beat Houston as well as being in position to win by a much wider margin last
week with a misleading final. TEXAS TECH BY 24

TEXAS (-31½) Colorado 6:15 PM
The Longhorns have had two weeks to prepare for this game but there is no doubt that there
has been attention placed on the game next week with Oklahoma. Texas has covered just
once this season but will still face huge spreads as the #2 team in the nation. Colorado has
played much better the last two games after a dreadful 0-2 start but the defensive numbers
are still concerning. Colorado has faced a far tougher schedule than Texas to this point and
last season the spread on this game was just 12 and not that much has changed between the
two squads. Colorado has not had significant success in this series but this could be a
favorable situation for the Buffaloes catching a ton of points. At 1-3 and likely 1-4 with a
couple of ugly national TV performances, Colorado will be significantly undervalued. This is a
team that projected as one of the contenders in the North division and this would be the
chance at redemption that Colorado and the struggling coaching staff needs. TEXAS BY 24

FLORIDA STATE (-2½) Georgia Tech 7:00 PM
The Seminoles already have three losses but the schedule rates as one of the toughest in the
nation. Big plays have killed Florida State this season and the defense is allowing over 400
yards per game. Georgia Tech was shutdown against Miami, a team that FSU probably
should have beaten but the Yellow Jackets appear back on track with back-to-back wins.
Georgia Tech was actually out-rushed last week and if not for five turnovers another loss was
likely in order. Last season Tech won 31-28 in Atlanta but Florida State has dominated the
series history. Florida State’s defense has been suspect and the Seminoles have struggled as
favorites. Georgia Tech is facing a second straight week on the road but Florida State enters
this game off a big national TV loss and so far this season FSU has followed up its losses with
poor performances. FSU has only played one great game this season and Georgia Tech is a
reliable underdog that will have a rushing advantage. GEORGIA TECH BY 3

OHIO STATE (-14½) Wisconsin 2:30 PM
The Badgers looked sloppy early this season and Wisconsin was flat out lucky to come back
and win against Fresno State but the Big Ten season has opened with two crisp wins over
quality opponents. Ohio State has dominated this season with four straight ATS wins since the
opening close call against Navy. The Buckeyes have had massive yardage advantages the
last three games but Wisconsin has averaged 433 yards per game and this could be the top
rushing team in the Big Ten. The Badger defense has struggled against the pass but Ohio
State has not featured the explosive aerial attack some expected. Wisconsin has had a lot of
success in this series and last season the Badgers season swung the wrong way following a
tough home loss to the Buckeyes. Ohio State has some injuries and a suspension to work
through on defense and Wisconsin should be backed as an undefeated underdog. Ohio State
is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight as home favorites. OHIO STATE BY 10

Oklahoma State (NL) TEXAS A&M 11:30 AM
Injuries are a big story for the Cowboys as two of the three hyped offensive playmakers for
Oklahoma State are questionable this week. Texas A&M had its undefeated run ruined last
week but the Aggies will have a rebound chance back at home. Oklahoma State won easily
last season but the game was almost dead even statistically as A&M showed some fight after
falling behind early. Two years ago the Aggies won as home underdogs and this could be a
similar situation. Both of these teams rush for over 200 yards per game but neither team has
played a quality schedule and much of the statistics are coming off mismatch wins.
Defensively both of these teams have shown a lot of weakness. A&M has out-gained all four
opponents this season and the Aggies own a proud history as home underdogs. Oklahoma
State has had an extra week to prepare for this game but this will also be the first road game
for the Cowboys which could be problematic. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 7

Arizona State (-19½) WASHINGTON STATE 4:00 PM
Washington State is allowing nearly 37 points and nearly 500 yards per game. Although the
Cougars did beat SMU in a wild comeback the best two performances in terms of yardage
came against USC and Stanford but both games still featured solid deficits. Arizona State has
now lost back-to-back games and this has been a team with a fragile psyche in past seasons.
ASU won 31-0 last season at home in this series and the Sun Devils have again been an
impressive defensive team on the season allowing just 16 points and 229 yards per game.
Arizona State has faced a far weaker schedule than Washington State has however. Playing
at home has not proven to be a significant advantage for Washington State and the injuries for
an already depth deprived team continue to add up. ARIZONA STATE BY 27

Ohio (-5) AKRON 5:00 PM
The Bobcats have won three of the last four games and the two losses on the season came in
respectable efforts against major conference schools. This will be the third straight week on
the road for Ohio however and Akron has won each of the last five home meetings between
these teams. Having to change QBs midseason is not an ideal situation but Akron QB Matt
Rodgers played much better in his last game even if the result was the same. Akron has had
an extra week of prep time for this game, valuable at this juncture given the personnel
changes. The Ohio offense has been a bit more productive but these teams have fairly similar
defensive numbers through schedules that rate comparably. Given Akron’s extra week to
ready for this game and the brutal third week in a row on the road, backing the home
underdog makes a lot of sense in a series where Akron has had a great deal of success. Ohio
was fortunate to win last week and the Bobcats are in a tough spot here. AKRON BY 3

Utah (-6½) COLORADO STATE 5:00 PM
Colorado State will be glad to be back at home after back-to-back road losses following a 3-0
start to the season. The Rams have been a productive offensive team but there are some
major concerns on the defensive side of the ball. Utah has just one loss and to its credit losing
by seven at Oregon is looking like a quality loss at this point as the Ducks have turned it on.
Utah has had little trouble in the three most recent meetings in this series and Colorado State
has not covered in any of the last six meetings. The Rams are a quality home underdog
however, featuring a 15-4 ATS run in those situations. Colorado State has come out way
ahead on the turnover margin so far this season yet there have been some disappointing
results. Utah is rested for this game and the Utes have been a very difficult team to pass
against. Utah is just 1-3 ATS this season but all three missed covers came by four points or
less. The Utes are still a very dangerous team in the Mountain West. UTAH BY 10

Oregon (-6½) UCLA 2:30 PM
The Ducks are on a roll after two suspect performances to open the season. The early season
controversy may have actually served to unite the team and provide better discipline and the
Ducks have been impressive three weeks in a row. Each of those wins came in a very
favorable home venue however and the one road game was the opening disaster in Boise.
UCLA lost its first game last week, falling behind early before a late rally fell short. The Bruins
have been carried by defense this season as the offense has had limited production through a
challenging schedule. UCLA has been a dominant home team, covering in 26 of the last 33
games at the Rose Bowl. Oregon has had some success in this series but the Ducks failed to
score the last trip to this stadium. Last year UCLA held the powerful Ducks offense in check
and won the yardage battle but fell just short on the scoreboard. Given UCLA’s astonishing
home records in recent years and Oregon’s lack of road credibility this looks like a good
opportunity to go against a Ducks team that is getting a lot of attention. UCLA BY 3

TOLEDO (-7½) Western Michigan 6:00 PM
The Rockets continue to put up big numbers and Toledo is back at home this week following
back-to-back road wins. Toledo has some of the best offensive numbers in the nation,
averaging 474 yards per game and over 32 points per game. Western Michigan was expected
to be one of the top teams in the MAC but the Broncos are a losing team at this juncture and
coming off a lopsided loss in Dekalb. QB Tim Hiller had three interceptions last week but this
still should be a productive offensive team. Toledo has been a great home team over the
years but those numbers have slipped a bit in recent seasons. Western Michigan has won
with relative ease each of the last three meetings and this could be a spot where Toledo gets
caught as Western is better than the numbers suggest. WESTERN MICHIGAN BY 4

LOUISVILLE (NL) Southern Miss 6:30 PM
Southern Miss was upset in its last game after a strong start to the year and this is a team that
is now besieged with injuries. Statistically the Golden Eagles have been great on both sides of
the ball but a 52-0 win over Alcorn State has inflated those numbers. Southern Miss did play
tough at Kansas but it has taken a toll and this will now be a third straight road game.
Louisville has lost three consecutive games and the Cardinals played and lost with a back-up
QB last week. Given the injuries on both sides it makes sense to look towards the home team
that is likely undervalued following bad losses against quality competition. Southern Miss has
been a decent road performer but this could be an incomplete offense facing a brutal travel
draw. The Cardinals have had success against their former conference. LOUISVILLE BY 14

SOUTH CAROLINA (-12½) Kentucky 11:30 AM
Kentucky has lost badly the last two weeks but they have had to face Florida and Alabama.
Both games came at home but the Wildcats really did not have a chance. South Carolina has
won nine consecutive meetings in this series and statistically the Gamecocks have been
significantly better on both sides of the ball though the Wildcats have faced a tougher slate.
Four turnovers from the Gamecocks last season led to a very tight game between these
teams. It was a tie game fairly late in the fourth but South Carolina scored to win and cover on
a drive led by current Gamecocks QB Stephen Garcia. The South Carolina offense has been
more efficient and less mistake prone this season and though a conference loss has already
been taken this is a team that could move into the #2 spot in the SEC East. Wins the first two
weeks over Miami, Ohio and Louisville look far less impressive at this point in the season and
the Wildcats could struggle in this match-up unless South Carolina gets greedy and is caught
looking ahead to Alabama next week. This will be the first road game of the season for
Kentucky so things could get worse. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 21

Auburn (-3) ARKANSAS 12:00 PM
The Razorbacks beat Auburn 25-22 last season in what at the time seemed like a significant
upset but both teams ended the year 5-7. Arkansas has lost twice already this season but the
schedule has been far tougher. Last week ’s result was impressive for the Razorbacks and this
is a team that is really putting things together on offense. Defensively there are some issues
but the schedule has also played a role in the marginal numbers. Auburn is back in the
national rankings with a 5-0 start but last week’s road win at Tennessee was the first truly
impressive win as the Tigers probably deserved to lose the West Virginia game. The Tigers
have one of the top rushing attacks in the nation but this is also a team that is giving up over
153 yards per game on the ground. Auburn has also benefited from one of the top turnover
margins in the nation, a reversal from last season. Although Arkansas is coming off an
impressive non-conference win, this is a team that is 0-2 in SEC play and there will be
significant motivation to win this game. The rushing statistics for Auburn are a bit inflated from
big numbers the first two weeks and the Tigers face a second straight tough road game in the
SEC, now also getting some attention with the national exposure. ARKANSAS BY 6

OKLAHOMA (-23½) Baylor 2:30 PM
Oklahoma has two shutout wins and two losses in a bizarre season and this game has been
robbed of what could have been a brilliant QB match-up due to injuries. The Sooners have
two losses despite allowing fewer than nine points per game on average and both losses have
incredibly come by just a single point. The defensive numbers are impressive but against
quality competition the offense has not been able to produce in line with past seasons. OU QB
Landry Jones has not had bad numbers but his inexperience has shown in key spots. Baylor’s
QB Injury is more devastating as Robert Griffin provides such an exciting dynamic to the
offense. The Bears were down to QB #3 last week and visiting Norman is a dangerous place
in that situation. Baylor was actually out-gained against Kent State last week which is
discouraging for a team that is 3-1 and could challenge for a bowl spot with an upset or two.
Oklahoma rebounded nicely from its last loss and though some season goals are lost this is
still a team capable of wining the Big XII, with a big game next. OKLAHOMA BY 35

Navy (-13) RICE 2:30 PM
After winning ten games last season Rice is 0-5 and there has been just one ATS win in that
mix. Last week the Owls played tough against Tulsa, allowing only 27 points in a game that
was tied at the half. Navy was able to win in overtime against Air Force in a defensive battle.
Navy has been one of the top rushing teams in the nation this season but the numbers have
not been as dominant this season. Rice is allowing nearly 460 yards per game but they have
faced two Big XII teams. Injuries have hit the Rice offense hard and Navy has been an
impressive road team over the years even in situations laying points. NAVY BY 16

Tcu (-11) AIR FORCE 6:30 PM
With Houston falling last week TCU may start to get some more attention and the Frogs have
passed all the early tests. Conference games like this particularly on the road could be the
greatest upset risk however. Air Force is coming off a tough loss and after losing badly last
season in this match-up this could be a big game for the Falcons. QB Tim Jefferson was back
in action for the Falcons last week and with another week he should be at 100 percent this
week. The Frogs are known for great defense but Air Force actually allowed few er points per
game this season. Air Force is likely to be an underdog with a rushing edge in this match-up
and TCU has rarely had big offensive numbers on the road. TCU BY 7

East Carolina (-6½) SMU 7:00 PM
The Pirates are thought of as a strong defensive team but ECU is allowing 366 yards and over
24 points per game on the year. The Pirates barely survived last week and now must face
another tricky road game. ECU has been out-gained in three of the last four games and
SMU’s defense has not really been that much worse statistically. The Mustang offense has
been plagued by interceptions but the production has been there while ECU has struggled to
score points. East Carolina has covered just once this season and it came by the slimmest of
margins and this is a team that is still overvalued based on the attention picked up from the
great early season run last year and the conference championship. EAST CAROLINA BY 4

Florida (-9½) LSU 7:00 PM
While LSU has survived some close calls and played some sloppy football at times the Tigers
came up with a big win last week in their best performance of the season. LSU has won
outright in three of the last five meetings including both games in that span in Baton Rouge.
While Florida unquestionably has great talent the Gators have not really proved much on the
field this season. Florida is yet to play a challenging road game and the offense struggled in
its toughest test so far. QB Tim Tebow is still listed as questionable for this game and the big
statistics have been produced against one of the weakest schedules in the nation. Going
against Florida has not proven to be wise but the value on a flawed but still dangerous LSU
team is significant in this match-up. LSU has lousy recent ATS numbers at home but Tigers
have been a home dog once in six plus years. FLORIDA BY 7

IOWA (-7½) Michigan 7:05 PM
The Hawkeyes had to survive a late rally last week while Michigan’s late rally was not enough,
stealing the potential 5-0 head-to-head battle this week. In its biggest games Iowa has played
extremely well but the Hawkeyes have nearly been upset twice as well. Michigan’s defense is
not holding up in conferenceplay as the Wolverines are allowing close to 400 yards per game.
The Wolverines are posting impressive rushing numbers however and freshmen QB Tate
Forcier actually has better numbers than Iowa’s veteran Ricky Stanzi. Michigan has won S/U
each of the last three years in this series and this will be a rare situation where Iowa is the
team laying points. The Hawkeyes have really struggled as a home favorite in recent years
despite being dominant in that role early in Coach Ferentz’s career with the team. Iowa is just
5-10 ATS the last four years and this could be too many points to give an offense that can put
up big points and score in a hurry. IOWA BY 4

Utah State (-13½) NEW MEXICO STATE 7:00 PM
Utah State has posted nearly 30 points per game while allowing just over 35 points per game
through a very tough schedule. The result is 1-3 with no FBS wins but the offense has posted
impressive numbers and has not been overwhelmingly overmatched even against three high
quality opponents. New Mexico State has been out-gained in every game this season and
through one of the absolute weakest schedules in the nation NMS has averaged just 15 points
per game. Sagarin rates the New Mexico State schedule 145th, which means about 25 FCS
teams have played tougher slates. This is a team with two wins however and the defense has
posted decent numbers. Last season Utah State won 47-2 in this series and there is no
discernible home field edge here. UTAH STATE BY 17

Utep (-3) MEMPHIS 7:00 PM
The Miners scored a big win last week but it was more about an overrated Houston team
struggling than UTEP playing great. The offense had a big day but this is easily one of the
worst defenses in the nation. In fairness UTEP has played an insane schedule by Conference
USA standards and at 1-0 in league play the Miners are still in line for season goals. Memphis
has just one FCS win to its credit with four S/U and ATS losses in the FBS match-ups. The
schedule has not been that difficult but there has been no rhythm on offense as three QBs
have seen significant time. Memphis has won the only two recent meetings between these
teams and considering trusting an awful defense in a road favorite role off a huge upset win in
which they were badly out-gained should raise a major red flag. MEMPHIS BY 4

SAN JOSE STATE (-4) Idaho 7:00 PM
The oddsmakers have a tough case with Idaho as this is clearly a team that has improved by
leaps and bounds from the past few seasons. Idaho won three games in the first two years
under Coach Akey but QB Nate Enderle is now experienced and he is playing like a true
veteran and one of the top signal-callers in this conference. Idaho is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and they
have four outright wins as underdogs including wins over two Mountain West teams. The
Vandals won’t be confused for a great defensive team but the offense is averaging over 400
yards per game. San Jose State has faced a brutal schedule and the lone win came against
FCS Cal-Poly. The Spartans were really not competitive against three highly regarded teams
in non-conference play but this is a team that has won at least four WAC games each of the
last three years. SJSU has barely beat Idaho each of the past two years and the Vandals are
a confident group ready to keep this great run going. IDAHO BY 3

Byu (-16½) UNLV 9:00 PM
UNLV was out-gained by 427 yards last week in an ugly rivalry loss. Much of the production
came late as the dogs were certainly not called off but in a year where the Rebels expected to
be a bowl caliber team there has been only a narrow win over Hawaii. Last week ’s loss came
on the Heels of three straight games with late game drama so the Rebels just ran out of gas.
These teams have posted fairly similar offensive profiles so far this season and last year BYU
struggled in this match-up, winning by just seven in a very even statistical game. Look for
UNLV to bounce back as last week ’s loss was not as bad as it looked and it came against a
desperate Nevada team that was still winless. BYU BY 7

Fresno State (-9) HAWAII 11:00 AM
The Bulldogs are 1-3 but they have out-gained every opponent this season in a schedule that
currently features three undefeated nationally ranked teams. Hawaii’s wins came against
Central Arkansas and Washington State so there is little weight in the resume and the
Warriors were shut down last week in the conferenc e opener. Hawaii is never an easy team to
face on the road but it has got to the point where a little too much respect can be given to the
home team in Hawaii games. This has been a closely contested game the past two years but
Fresno should have immense match-up edges here and the Bulldogs are desperate for a win
after tough losses in big games . FRESNO STATE BY 21

Florida International (-3) WESTERN KENTUCKY 3:00 PM
Something has to give in this battle of 0-4 teams. Both teams have covered twice but both
squads have been out-gained in every game. The schedule has been brutally tough for both
teams and the defensive numbers have shown it. Western Kentucky has been the better
rushing team this season which could allow for a home upset. WKU has had two weeks to
prepare for this game and this will be a key spot on the schedule for the Hilltoppers as the
opportunities for wins are rare. WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 4

LOUISIANA (-6) North Texas 6:00 PM
These teams mirror each other defensively but North Texas has been the superior offensive
team even with QB Riley Dodge missing some time. North Texas has dominated the ATS
numbers in this series but the Ragin’ Cajuns were easy winners last season. Louisiana has
been a tough team to beat at home but there is a significant injury report for the ULL squad
and North Texas appears to be rested and healthy and ready to resume what opened as a
very promising start to the season. UNT has out-gained three of four foes this season with the
exception being Alabama and Louisiana is not a great rushing force this season. North Texas
will be a dangerous underdog this season and Louisiana’s early season upset win over
Kansas State is pulling a little too much weight with this number. NORTH TEXAS BY 3

RATING 5 ARIZONA (-6) over Houston
RATING 4 CINCINNATI (+9) over Baltimore
RATING 3 BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
RATING 2 CAROLINA (-4) over Washington
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (NL) over Seattle

Minnesota (NL) ST. LOUIS 12:00 PM
The Rams defense has played respectably this season but St. Louis can not get anything
going on offense. St. Louis has scored 24 points through four games and last week the team
surrendered three defensive touchdowns. Opponents are able to play up on Stephen Jackson
as he is the only viable threat in the offense and Kyle Boller did not make many plays at QB
last week. This would be a great spot to go-against Minnesota as the Vikings will face a short
week coming off all the hoopla of the huge Monday night game. That result will certainly
impact this line and our opinion but St. Louis will be a tough team to back against a Vikings
team with a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Minnesota did not play particularly well
in the first two weeks of the season but still won and covered as road favorites while St. Louis
would likely have to score a season high to cover in this game. VIKINGS BY 13

Dallas (NL) KANSAS CITY 12:00 PM
The Chiefs were once a formidable home underdog but Kansas City failed getting a lot of
points last week in a game that was not as close as the final margin. The Chiefs have a very
limited running game and the passing attack has not developed enough in the system yet.
Kansas City has faced a brutal schedule and it is not about to get any easier. There could be
some breaks with injuries this week as Dallas RBs Felix Jones and Marion Barber are not
likely 100 percent. WR Roy Williams is also listed as questionable which could make a Dallas
team that has only scored 24 points on offense the last two weeks even more suspect. This
will be the second straight road game and Dallas will certainly be overvalued in this match-up
against the winless Chiefs. Kansas City has shown the most life of the 0-4 teams even if it has
been with inconsistency so this could be an underdog that stays close. COWBOYS BY 7

CAROLINA (-4) Washington (37½) 12:00 PM
Coming off a bye week should be a favorable situation for the winless Panthers and catching
a Washington squad with serious problems on offense should be a favorable situation.
Washington has only scored 56 points in four games and there continue to be far too many
missed opportunities on offense. Washington got a much needed win last week but it was
unimpressive given the situation, playing at home against a winless team with some of the
worst defensive numbers in the league and facing Josh Johnson’s first career start.
Washington does have a solid defense but Carolina could be poised for a big day after a
turnover riddled start to the season through a tough schedule. PANTHERS BY 10

PHILADELPHIA (NL) Tampa Bay 12:00 PM
Last week was another loss for the Buccaneers but the result was much more encouraging. In
his first career start QB Josh Johnson showed some promise and he does provide a different
dynamic with his mobility, something that is needed given some of the protection problems. It
could be blamed on the struggling Washington offense, but the Tampa Bay defense played its
best game and made a few big plays though it was not enough. A rested Eagles team will play
as significant favorites and at present it is unclear what the QB and RB situations will be for
Philadelphia. QB Donovan McNabb is likely to return to action but there could be some rust.
The two Eagles wins have come against teams that are 0-7 and Philadelphia lost badly to the
Saints so it is unclear if this team really can justify its steep favoritism. The Eagles have
allowed 72 points in three games so this may not be the Eagles defense of past years as a
few of the key departures seem to be having an impact elsewhere. EAGLES BY 7

NY GIANTS (NL) Oakland 12:00 PM
Eli Manning left the last game with a foot injury and his status is uncertain though early reports
have been encouraging. The Giants cruised to another win last week to move to 4-0 and this
looks like the most complete team in the league though the schedule has not been overly
difficult. A big game with the Saints could be a great undefeated showdown next week and
this should be an easy home game for the Giants after three consecutive road wins. New York
has not been great in role as a huge favorite and the wins over Washington and Dallas were
very tight so lopsided wins the last two weeks against teams that are now both 0-4 should not
be given too much weight. The Raiders have scored just 42 points in four games and the
offense has not come close to recapturing the steady play that was featured in the opening
week. New York is tough to go-against right now at any number. GIANTS BY 16

BUFFALO (-6) Cleveland (39½) 12:00 PM
The Browns appeared to have a win in its grasp and then took momentum into OT with a blocked
PAT but Cleveland is now 0 -4. Cleveland had 395 yards of offense against a Cincinnati defense that
had been playing well and the offense appears much more fluid with Derek Anderson at QB even if
he makes some mistakes. Jamal Lewis may still be injured for th is game but Jerome Harrison made
an impact in the backfield last week. Despite facing an unproven QB the Bills were blown out last
week in Miami. At 1-3, a season that started with a great performance may be turning for the worse
quickly. In his first game back Marshawn Lynch had a limited impact but a three interception game
from QB Trent Edwards was too much to overcome. Buffalo is still tough at home. BILLS BY 10

BALTIMORE (-9) Cincinnati (42) 12:00 PM
The media was a little quick to anoint the Ravens as the team to beat in the AFC and
Baltimore came up short in New England. The Ravens continue to move the ball effectively
but this is clearly not the same Ravens defense, having allowed 20 points per game. The
Ravens have covered in nine of the last ten games as favorites but this will be a steep price
going against a Cincinnati team tied with Baltimore on top of the standings. The Bengals
struggled last week but division rivalry games take on a different meaning and Cincinnati
should not be penalized for being a bit flat after a huge win over the Steelers. This is still a
quality team that could cause problems for the Ravens. Baltimore’s wins have included two 0-
4 teams so this is a team being overvalued right now. RAVENS BY 3

Pittsburgh (NL) DETROIT 12:00 PM
The Lions were tied 21-21 before eventually being doubled up 48-24 against Chicago. Detroit
thoroughly out-gained the Bears but an interception setting up a very short field and a kickoff
return TD were mistakes the Lions can not afford to make. QB Matthew Stafford and WR
Calvin Johnson were both injured last week as well and if they must miss time in this game it
will be a very tough week. Pittsburgh finally got a rushing attack going en route to a big win
that ended up close at the end. Detroit has allowed 134 points on the season so Pittsburgh
should have plenty of scoring opportunities. The Steelers have only scored two more points
than the Lions this season and Pittsburgh would potentially be vulnerable to the Detroit pass
attack if healthy. Detroit has improved considerably but there still is a long ways to go and too
many encouraging first halves have been met with second half failures. STEELERS BY 14

SAN FRANCISCO (-2½) Atlanta (42½) 3:05 PM
The 49ers could easily be 4-0 and a commanding lead in the NFC West has been developed
with a first round sweep of the three division rivals. San Francisco scored three defensive
touchdowns last week and even without RB Gore the offense has been able to make enough
plays. Atlanta has had two weeks to soak in the first loss of the season. In three games the
Falcons have only scored four more points than they have allowed and despite a reputation as
a strong offensive team the Falcons are averaging just 19 points per game. The rushing attack
has fallen short of expectations this season and it will be another tough match-up on the
ground this week. San Francisco’s win last week was deceptively impressive with the
turnovers creating most of the points. Atlanta could be a dangerous dog. FALCONS BY 3

New England (-3½) DENVER (42½) 3:15 PM
Denver may not have played the most difficult schedule but last week’s win gained some
credibility and the Broncos have allowed just 26 points in the 4-0 start. Kyle Orton has not
made mistakes at QB and the Broncos have two RBs nearly at 250 yards already although
Correll Buckhalter left last week’s game with an ankle injury. New England moved to 3-1 with
a big win last week and this could be a difficult spot facing long travel and playing as a road
favorite in a tough venue. New England lost its only road game this season, scoring just nine
points and the Patriots have been a very average defensive team. The coaching match-up
brings a lot of intrigue but Denver clearly is going in the right direction. BRONCOS BY 3

ARIZONA (-6) Houston (48) 3:15 PM
The Cardinals are rested after a 1-2 start and an ugly loss in primetime. Arizona should have
an opportunity to put points on the board in this match-up as the Houston defense has been a
severe disappointment so far this season. The Texans have allowed 92 points in four games
and on offense the running game has had very little impact which has often left QB Matt
Schaub in less than favorable situations. Two of the best receivers in the NFL will face off in
this match-up and Houston’s effective win over Oakland should not carry tremendous weight.
Arizona has had to play a tough early season schedule and this is a team that could really get
on track in this match-up coming out of the bye week . CARDINALS BY 14

SEATTLE (NL) Jacksonville 3:15 PM
Numerous injuries for the Seahawks make this a problematic game even though the Jaguars
will face significant travel. After an 0-2 start the Jaguars have looked like a contender the past
two weeks, scoring 68 points in two impressive wins. The Jaguars have not been great on
defense but they have also played four very good offensive teams and the schedule features
teams that are a combined 1-15 the next four games so this is a team that can start to make
some noise in the AFC. Seattle normally holds an excellent home field edge but that can
change with a back-up QB and several key injuries on defense. Jacksonville’s passing game
has really turned it on the last two weeks and could have a big day. JAGUARS BY 7

Indianapolis (-3½) TENNESSEE (46) 7:20 PM
The Titans have hit rock bottom as three close losses that featured some sloppy play and
missed opportunities turned into a blowout loss last week taking the 13-3 2008 team to 0-4 in
2009. Tennessee’s defense was one of the best in the NFL last season but the Titans have
allowed 108 points in four games. Tennessee is still a very tough team to run against but with
the groove that Peyton Manning is in, the Titans could get shredded this week. The Colts have
delivered twice in primetime games already this season and although this looks like a team
with some vulnerability, Indianapolis just keeps winning. The trends would support the Titans
in this spot but Tennessee has been an undisciplined team that will have a hard time keeping
pace in this match-up unless turnovers are forced, a tough task vs. Manning. COLTS BY 6

MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2009

NY Jets (-1) MIAMI (37) 7:30 PM
With Chad Henne at QB the Dolphins scored a season high in points to pick up the first win of the
season. Miami has out-scored its opponents for the year despite the 1 -3 record and the Dolphins
have had to play a difficult schedule. Some would say the Jets were exposed last week after
catching some breaks in the 3-0 start but after two turnovers turned directly into touchdowns New
York battled back and made the Saints work for the win. The New York defense held Drew Brees to
just 190 yards and no touchdowns so even if the Jets have been a bit lucky the defense is certainly
doing some things right. The Jets have had overwhelming success in this series and the defense
should cause problems for the young Miami QB. These teams are well matched but while the Jets
have found ways to win, Miami has found ways to lose with last week the exception. JETS BY 4

Pointwise Newsletter

College...
1--TCU over Air Force 31-10
1--Arizona State over Washington State 44-10
2--Nevada over Louisiana Tech (FRIDAY) 44-20
3--Auburn over Arkansas 40-24
3--Idaho (+) over San Jose State 30-24
4--Fresno State over Hawaii 34-20
5--Florida State over Georgia Tech 34-17
5--South Carolina over Kentucky 33-10

NFL...
2--San Francisco over Atlanta 23-13
3--Miami (+) over NY Jets 23-20
4--Baltimore over Cincinnati 30-16
4--Minnesota over St. Louis 33-7
5--Washington (+) over Carolina 19-20

Power Sweep

4* Fresno St. 37-20
3* Florida st. 34-27
3* Temple 31-10
2* SMU (+) 27-23
2* Oklahoma 45-10

Underdog Miss. +6 23-20 Mississippi outright

4* Carolina 23-10
3* Arizona 34-23
2* 49's 23-10
2* New Eng. 20-10

3* Cowboys U 42
3* Steelers O 42
3* Pats U 43
2* Texans O 48
2* Browns O 38

RED SHEET

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

OCTOBER 10, 2009 VOLUME 41, NUMBER 6

Arizona State 45 - WASHINGTON STATE 10 - (5:00 EDT) -- Line opened at ArizSt minus 17½, and now
minus 19½. Tough spot for punchless Cougars (6 pts each of last 2 wks), who catch the
talented Devils off a pair of tough losses, who will look to turn formerly hopeful season
completely around this week. Went down to Oregon St last week, despite 26-14 FD, & 406-
295 yd edges, & rank among the best defensive squads in the nation. Contrast that to
WashSt owning the nation's worst stop unit. Normally easy to look past squads such as
this, but it won't happen here. The Coogs are now hurting at QB. Suns do it up right.
RATING: ARIZONA STATE 89

Fresno State 41 - HAWAII 20 - (11:00) -- Line opened at FresnoSt minus 8, and is now minus 9. The term
"under-the-radar" certainly applies to these Bulldogs, whose 1-3 record hardly deserves
much recognition. However, their 3 setbacks have come vs the likes of Wisconsin (in OT at
Madison), BoiseSt (nation's 6th ranked squad), & at Cincinnati (ranked 8th). Despite that
formidable trio, Fresno ranks among the best overland teams in the nation (262 RYpg vs
those 3), headed by the spectacular Mathews (148 RYpg). The 'Bows glad to be home, but
will be without their only "O" weapon, QB Alexander. FSt's chance to explode.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 89

OHIO STATE 38 - Wisconsin 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 16, and is now minus 14. Love the
2-pt line swing in our favor, after having to accept a push with last week's top Red Sheet play,
Tulsa, with a 3½-pt line shift from Wednesday to Saturday. Oh, well, it comes with the
territory. These Bucks have been overwhelming since their excruciating loss to USC, with
overland edges of 247-13, 236-82, & 219-18, with a 101-14 combined score. The Badgers
bring a perfect 5-0 record into this fray, so again full focus for OSU. Realize RB Clay & QB
Tolzien present a challenge, but UW allowing 29 ppg in its last 8 lined tilts.
RATING: OHIO STATE 88

SOUTH CAROLINA 31 - Kentucky 10 - (12:30) -- Line opened at SouthCarolina minus 12, and is now minus
11½. First road game for the Wildcats since their opening day rout of defenseless Miami-
Ohio. Have since barely squeaked by 1-3 Louisville, before entering caldron of back-to-back
games with top-ranked Florida & 3rd ranked Alabama. Sure, they've been a respectable 18-
12 ATS as SEC double digit dogs, but taking on this defensive grinder (held OleMiss to 14
FDs & 10 pts), on the heels of those 2 is asking too much, especially off a 3-game homestand.
Another solid performance from the Ol' Ball Coach's minions.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 88

NEVADA 48 - Louisiana Tech 20 - (9:00 Friday) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 6½, and is now minus 7½.
Loved the play of the 'Pack in 63-28 blasting of UNLV last week (30-pt cover), as they rolled
up 773 yds, including 559 RYs, with Ball, Kaepernick, & Lippincott reaching 170 RYs. As
figured, they resembled the runner with the weights removed, after road games vs NotreDame
& ColoradoSt, & a hoster vs powerful Missouri. They took full advantage of Vegas, in that
one, & should do likewise vs a Bulldog team which has lost its 2 RGs to date by 11 & 11 pts
ATS. Solid Tech home win last week, keeps line in sight.
RATING: NEVADA 88

Indianapolis 27 - TENNESSEE 13 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 3, and is now minus
3½. Yes, we are quite aware of the fact that we've yet to be on the right side of a game
involving these Titans, who, thus far, have been a monumental flop. Their formerly frightening
defense is slipping by the week, as they've been mauled for 34, 24, & 37 pts the last 3
weeks. The defection of Haynesworth has obviously taken its toll, & facing this smoking Colt
(13 straight regular season wins) certainly not the prescription for turning things around.
Manning: 69-of-99 for 1,035 yds (15 yds per completion) past 3 weeks.
RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Toledo, Alabama, Florida -- NFL: San Fran, Philadelphia, Miami

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): LSU (+11½ to +9); UConn (+10 to +8½); Wisc (+16 to +14);
ArizSt (-17½ to -19½); UtahSt (-11 to -13); BYU (-14 to -16) - NFL: Pitt (-9½ to -10½; Dallas (-7 to -8½)

Logical Approach

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: TOLEDO - 8 over Western Michigan - The scandals and off field issues that plagued the Toledo program the past few seasons are in the past and Toledo has emerged once again as an elite team in the MAC. They are 3-2 with both losses coming to Big 10 teams and one of their wins was a thrashing of Big 12 Colorado. They are off of a back to back road wins including their conference opener last week at Ball State. Western Michigan appears to be a middle of the pack MAC team at best and were routed last week in their MAC opener at Northern Illinois. WMU has won 3 straight in the series over a troubled Toledo team the past few seasons so the hosts do have the revenge motive in their favor against a foe they defeated 5 straight times earlier this decade. Toledo has the far more potent offense while both defenses are similar although Toledo's has faced tougher tests. Toledo wins 37-23.

Other Featured College Selections

MISSISSIPPI + 6 over Alabama - A few weeks back Ole' Miss justified those critics who felt the Rebels' high national ranking was unwarranted when Mississippi lost 16-10 at South Carolina. The Rebels did regroup to follow up that loss with a workmanlike road win at Vanderbilt last week. Meanwhile there is nothing not to like about Alabama. The Crimson Tide appear every bit as strong as last season when they went unbeaten into the SEC Title game. Yet interestingly this has been a very competitive series in recent seasons. The last 4 meetings have been decided by 3, 3, 3 and 4 points. Alabama won all 4 games but 3 of those wins came in seasons that saw Ole Miss win just 3, 4 and 3 games. This is Ole Miss' best team in decades notwithstanding that loss to 'Carolina. This is only their second home game of the season and they have a non-conference game against UAB up next while 'Bama hosts South Carolina. Ole Miss has an NFL caliber QB, a defense almost as good as Alabama's and their best chance to defeat their long time rival in years. Both defenses have been outstanding against the pass. Mississippi pulls the upset, winning 20-17.

UCLA + 6 over Oregon - Oregon is now 4-1 following a pair of conference wins in which they outscored Cal and Washington State 94-9. The Ducks have shown steady improvement since that opening game loss at Boise State. However note that all 4 wins have come at home and Oregon now takes to the road for the first time in over a month. UCLA suffered their first loss last week at Stanford in their Pac 10 opener. The Bruins are challenged offensively but have played stout defense. Sandwiched around a nice road win at Tennessee are a pair of double digit home wins over San Diego State and Kansas State. Oregon has been the stronger team this decade, winning 6 of 9 meetings including 3 of 5 at UCLA. But 2 of those wins have been by a single point and UCLA won the most recent home game against Oregon 16-0 in 2007. UCLA is playing with a purpose, seeking to return to a Bowl after their 6 season streak was ended last season. The pieces are in place for a successful season with a solid defense and an offense that avoids turnovers. UCLA wins 27-23.

HAWAII + 9 over Fresno State - Hawaii is back home after playing 3 straight on the mainland. They won handily at Washington State before losing by a single point at UNLV and by 21 at Louisiana Tech. Fresno is just 1-3 and already considered a disappointment. They lost in OT at Wisconsin and then lost soundly at Boise State before playing well in a competitive loss at Cincinnati. Hawaii again eschews the run in favor of the pass. Hawaii has topped 300 passing yards in each game, averaging 395 ypg. Hawaii has won 7 of the last 10 meetings including 3 straight. Fresno does have a strong edge in the running game which is usually a key ingredient of success. Hawaii seems to be an exception as their success this decade has resulted from their reliance on the pass and an aggressive, hard hitting defense at home. Fresno's defense has forced just 2 turnovers this season and despite the glaring discrepancy in the primary stats, Fresno's defense is allowing 5.6 yards per rush while Hawaii's allows just 4.3. Ingredients for a non-surprising upset. Hawaii wins 30-20.

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA - 3 ½ over Washington - Washington struggled more than they should have in rallying to defeat Tampa Bay last week and now take to the road to face a rested 0-3 Carolina. Their two wins have come against winless Tampa and St Louis and now they face another winless team. Carolina is rested following their Bye and should be better prepared after having the extra time to address their concerns and deficiencies. Both teams have QB issues with Washington's Campbell struggling every bit as much as Carolina's Delhomme. The Panther do have the better coach, a better balanced running game and the potentially stronger passing game. They have also faced an overall tougher schedule. The Redskins have put up the better defensive stats but the talent on both teams is even. Carolina's Bye has also allowed for injuries to heal which makes them the healthier team. Washington RB Portis has been banged up in the early going and his productivity has been slowed as a result. Carolina gets their first win, 23-10.

Other Featured NFL Selections :
BALTIMORE - 8 ½ over Cincinnati - Cincinnati is clearly an improved team, especially on defense, although they have allowed more rushing yards in each successive game this season. Baltimore is steamed after losing in New England last week despite playing very well on both sides of the football. QB Flacco continues to impress in leading the offense while the defense continues to be superb. And although the Ravens have also allowed more rushing yards each game its been on a totally different level than the Bengals. Baltimore allowed 29 rushing yards to Kansas City in their opener and just 85 last week to the Pats. They lead the NFL in allowing just 60 ypg on the ground, just 2.6 per rush. Baltimore's well balanced offense ranks # 5 rushing and # 6 passing. Off a loss, with the Divisional lead at stake and playing at home in the first of their two games this season suggests the intangibles support the more experienced host. Baltimore wins 27-14.

New England - 3 ½ over DENVER - It may be time to start believing in the 4-0 Broncos after they finally defeated a Playoff quality team with last week's win over Dallas. They again step up in class to face a New England team that is not as dominant as they were two seasons ago but are still an elite team. The intrigue surrounding this game involves Denver head coach McDaniels who served 7 seasons on New England's staff including the last 3 as offensive coordinator. Denver QB Orten has fared well leading his new team. Patriots' QB Brady is getting closer to peak form with each game after missing virtually all of 2008 due to injury. Denver's defense has been outstanding but that plays into the strength of Patriot coach Belichick and his ability to prepare. This game could have home field implications for the Playoffs. And history suggests the teacher generally has the edge over the pupil in first time matchups. Expect a well played game with minimal mistakes and with the more talented and experienced team getting a solid win. New England wins 27-17.

TENNESSEE + 3 ½ over Indianapolis - After starting last season 10-0, Tennessee has dropped 8 of their last 11 games including all 4 this season. The first three were all competitive losses before last week's one sided home loss to Jacksonville. Their season is all but shot as only San Diego, in 1992, made the Playoffs after starting 0-4. Indianapolis is 4-0 with outstanding play on both sides of the football. These teams have split their season series each of the past three seasons and most have been extremely tightly contested. The on field results suggest the Colts here but long standing handicapping principles clearly point to the Titans who have burned their backers badly each of the past two weeks. And if the Colts are such an obvious play, why is this line so short? Despite the 0-4 record the Titans have some impressive stats to rely upon, including gaining 5.5 yards per rush (# 2) while defensively allowing just 2.8 per rush (# 2). Following last week's shockingly embarrassing loss, expect their best effort yet. Tennessee pulls the upset, winning 24-21.

Sports Memo

TIM TRUSHEL

Best Bet: SMU +7
East Carolina SMU +7
SMU 21 at East Carolina (-5) 38 - 2006 O/U NL 5 pm PT
Don’t hesitate to bet this one as there has been plenty of early movement toward
the juicy home underdog as the +7 gets taken out. Under June Jones, SMU is on the
right track. They are not yet able to compete every week against all comers but the
program is on the rise. Last week they trailed just 12-7 at the half against a very strong
TCU team. While the Mustangs were held to just to 224 total yards -- well below their
season average of 432 -- they trailed by just nine points headed into the fourth quarter.
This week they face another good team, but one against which they can compete.
East Carolina has averaged just 21 points and less than 300 yards of total offense per
game. They have been outgained by an average of 69 yards per game. They are not
especially strong defensively and SMU should be able to move the football. So while
SMU has dropped two in a row we note that they allowed just 239 total yards in the
overtime loss at Washington State and showed capable by forcing three turnovers in
the first half at TCU. This ball hawking unit has 12 interceptions and should have more
than enough on the defensive side of the ball to slow East Carolina. Take the home dog.

BRENT CROW

Best Bet: Oregon State +2Stanford Oregon State +2
Oregon State 28 at Stanford (+2.5) 36 - 2008 O/U NL 4 pm PT
Stanford is suddenly the “it” team in the PAC-10 after beating UCLA and Washington over
the past two weeks to improve to 3-0 in conference play. The Cardinal are now tied atop
the standings and are 4-1 overall. They are definitely feeling good about themselves and
are getting some attention as a result of their good start. However, they may be getting
a little too much respect, as they are now favored on the road at a tough venue against
a decent team. Stanford’s wins are not that impressive in reality, beating a UCLA team
without its starting quarterback, Washington after it had knocked off USC the previous
week, a bad San Jose State team and an even worse Washington State squad to open
the season. Their lone loss was on the road at Wake Forest, in which they were held to
120 yards rushing. Oregon State has already lost twice at home, yet they have failed
more than twice at home only once this decade, going 44-14 SU since 2000. The Beavers
are coming off a road win at Arizona State and will have some confidence as the Cardinal
come to town. Oregon State has defended the run well thus far, giving up just 3.52
ypc, and that should be the key factor in what expects to be a home underdog victory.

TEDDY COVERS

Best Bet: Oklahoma State NLOklahoma State NL Texas A&M
Texas A&M 28 at Oklahoma State (-26) 56 - 2008 O/U NL 9:30 am PT
My clients and I cashed a 20* Big Ticket playing against Texas A&M in their 47-19 blowout
loss to Arkansas last week and there’s no reason to hop off the anti-Aggies train
this week. Second year head coach Mike Sherman is using his own recruits these days,
with 16 true freshmen (including five starters) and 31 first time players seeing action
already through the first four games. The young offensive line is undersized and inexperienced,
leaving QB Jarrod Johnson running for his life against better defenses.
And the Aggies own defensive shortcomings that cannot be overemphasized. Last
year, the Aggies allowed a whopping 37 ppg and 462 ypg. This year we saw Utah State
hang 30 points and 521 yards and Arkansas moved the football at will both on the
ground and through the air. The “12th man” factor at Kyle Field hasn’t been an issue
in recent seasons including a 1-3 SU and ATS mark in Big XII play last year. Oklahoma
State beat A&M 56-28 in ’08, and a similar result here would be no surprise to this bettor,
with or without Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter in the lineup. It’s not like the Cowboys
lack quality depth at receiver and running back. Oklahoma State rolls in this one.

DONNIE BLACK

Best Bet: Cincinnati +7.5Cincinnati +7.5 Baltimore
Baltimore (-7) 34 at Cincinnati 3 - 2008 O/U 42 10 am PT
Color me skeptical about this Baltimore Ravens team. The national media and pundits
have Baltimore regarded as one of the elite teams in the NFL. And in fairness, if not for
a dropped pass on a fourth down conversion against New England, this team would be
4-0. However it must be noted that their wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland
and San Diego. Those three teams all rank in the bottom nine in scoring defense and
have allowed nearly 28 points per game. In our opinion, Baltimore is good but overrated.
This week they face a division rival brimming with confidence and an identical
3-1 record. While not as flashy, the Bengals’ bend-but-don’t-break defense has allowed
just 19 points per game. A scoring average that is actually better than Baltimore’s. On offense
Joe Flacco has proved himself to be a tremendous talent and can match or exceed
Carson Palmer’s numbers across the board. However that advantage at quarterback is
negligible and with the Bengals better at the skill positions, there is simply not much
difference in the overall talent between these two teams. So while home field advantage
is legitimate, the big points make up the difference and put us on the big divisional dog.

ERIN RYNNING

Best Bet: Iowa -7.5Michigan Iowa -7.5
Iowa 6 at Michigan (-12.5) 20 - 2006 O/U NL 5 pm PT (ABC)
The Wolverines will try to pick themselves off the mat as they travel to Iowa to challenge
the Hawkeyes. Michigan met their match in their first road game losing to rival
Michigan State in overtime. The Spartans largely dominated the Wolverines and
easily exploited their weaknesses. It was clear that if you can stop the run against
Michigan you can go a long way in beating them. Unfortunately for the Wolverines,
Iowa is traditionally solid at stopping the run game. While Michigan has a talented
freshman quarterback in Tate Forcier it’s clear he’s not mature enough to
carry this team to victory in a place such as Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes were
once almost impossible to beat on their home turf. This year’s team has the look of
dominance with head coach Kirk Ferentz’s best team in years. They’ll feature a quarterback
edge with junior Ricky Stanzi as he’s taken a real step forward from last season.
This Hawkeyes team is all of the sudden getting healthier on offense as well,
with Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Tony Moeaki and Bryan Bulaga returning to full
strength. This defense can simply shut down Michigan and we will lay the points.

ANDREW LANGE

Best Bet: Florida State -2.5Georgia Tech Florida State -2.5
Florida State (+3) 28 at Georgia Tech 31 - 2008 O/U NL 5 pm PT
Last week in these pages we used Wake Forest over NC State in a preferred situation
of one team coming off a loss on the road and returning home to face a
team off a big home win. We’ll go back to the well again this week and utilize
Florida State over visiting Georgia Tech. Since getting crushed at Miami, Tech
has looked dominant with wins over North Carolina and last week on the road
at Mississippi State. The Seminoles have fallen flat since their big win at BYU,
dropping contests to South Florida and on the road to Boston College. In my
opinion in-depth statistical analysis is irrelevant given the ebb and flow nature
of the ACC this season. Both teams are certainly capable of beating one
and other on any given day so like last week, we’ll utilize the favorable situation
for the home side. We also get to add in a little revenge angle with Tech
winning by three last year in Atlanta. I love breaking down rushing advantages,
offensive line play, key injuries, etc. but this is a play that requires nothing
but a peak at the results and schedule. Seminoles find a way to get it done.
Vol. 14, Issue 10

FAIRWAY JAY

Best Bet: Oregon State +2Stanford Oregon State +2
Oregon State 28 at Stanford (+2.5) 36 - 2008 O/U NL 4 pm PT
Oregon State secured a rare win in the desert last week at Arizona State and return home
as underdog to the upstart and much improved Stanford Cardinal, who are on top of
the PAC-10 standings at 3-0. Stanford is off to their best start since 2001, and Cardinal
coach Jim Harbaugh played in the NFL for Oregon State coach Mike Riley while at San
Diego. Stanford beat OSU last season 36-28 as the Beavers fumbled the ball over the goal
line and through the end zone in the final seconds. Stanford running back Toby Gerhart
leads the nation in rushing with 650 yards. The senior star is a workhorse and combines
a bruising physique and impressive acceleration. They’ll rely on him heavily, yet the Beavers
strength is run defense while their pass rush and secondary have been very sub-par.
Oregon State counters with ultra quick and fast RB Jacquizz Rodgers and his 100+ rushing
ypg average and passing game that torched Stanford for 400 yards in last season’s
matchup. Oregon State would have been over a touchdown favorite at home on opening
day, and we’ll take the value and strength of the Beavers on the turf at Reser Stadium.

FAIRWAY JAY

Best Bet: Illinois +4Michigan State Illinois +4
Illinois (+25) 23 at Michigan State 20 - 2006 O/U NL 9 am PT (Big Ten)
We finished off a 9-3 week in college football with Michigan State as our 20* Big Ten
Game of the Year winner. The Spartans dominated Michigan, holding them to 105 total
yards until the final five minutes when Michigan miraculously forced overtime. That
emotional overtime rivalry win by the Spartans triggers a number of letdown situations
and some very strong technical parameters that point to potential issues this weekend.
Illinois will be on nobody’s “buy list” following another lackluster effort after falling behind
Penn State 28-3 in the fourth quarter before losing 35-17. Quarterback Juice Williams
continues to disappoint with just one TD pass and four INTs and Ron Zook finally
made the move to Eddie McGee on Monday. Incredibly, Illinois is last in the conference
in scoring and ypg offense along with total defense. However, Michigan State continues
to turn the ball over and make mistakes that allow their opponents extra opportunities
to make plays. Homecoming should put some extra fight in the Illini and our situational
and technical analysis is just too strong to pass up. Take the home underdog Illinois.

HELMUT SPORTS

Best Bet: Miami (OH) +20.5Miami (OH) +20.5 Northwestern
Northwestern (-5.5) 21 at Miami 3 - 2006 O/U NL 9 am PT
The RedHawks are currently 0-5 on the season but the team has shown improvement
on offense with redshirt freshman Zac Dysert taking over quarterback. In
Dysert’s first start against Kent State he threw for 337 yards and ran for 107 more.
Then in his second start against a highly ranked Cincinnati defense, he threw for 291
yards and rushed for 45 yards. While the RedHawk defense did give up 439 yards to
Cincinnati, they held them under their seasonal average which is a good sign. The
Wildcats have played a fairly weak schedule and have shown no ability at all to beat
these teams by any kind of margin. With an injury to starting running back Stephen
Simmons the running game has been sub par the last three games with totals of
just 52, 61 and 87 yards. As a result the Wildcats have been a little one dimensional
on offense, averaging more than 45 pass attempts per game. The Red Hawks have
played some very tough teams and have been competitive in both conference
games. With the emergence of Dysert, they should be able to keep this one closer
than projected against a Wildcat defense that has been a little shaky this season.

MARTY OTTO

Best Bet: Ole Miss +6.5Alabama Ole Miss +6.5
Ole Miss (+12.5) 20 at Alabama 24 - 2008 O/U NL 12:30 pm PT (CBS)
This should be one hell of a game! Two teams ranked in the top five just a
couple of weeks ago battling out for top spot in the SEC West...it simply
doesn’t get any better. I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog and call
for that emotional boost to bring them to a higher level than the favorite.
Alabama’s defense is the best in the country, ranking second in total yardage
allowed and 14 ppg. But Ole Miss should be considered a top defensive
unit as well. The Rebels ranked first against the rush in conference play last
year and look strong again this season holding opponents to just 3.2 ypc.
We should also give a little slack to the Rebels who have opened with a challenging
slate of three of their first four on the highway. This will be a raucous
crowd on Saturday and we’ve seen the Oxford faithful power the home side
before. In fact, as a home dog the last three seasons, Ole Miss is a solid 6-2
against the number. With a quarterback in Jevan Snead that has proven his
worth as an underdog (5-0 ATS) we’ll get the money again. Take Ole Miss.

ROB VENO

Best Bet: Vanderbilt -11.5Vanderbilt -11.5 Army
None O/U NL 9 am PT
The season is going straight downhill for the Cadets who have failed to improve
offensively after five games. In fact, Army seemed to be entrenched in lousy offensive
play the last three weeks after averaging just 267.7 ypg and 16.7 ppg against
a trio of defenses that hold national ranks of 65th or worse. Two of the three are
not even in the top 100 and the porous Tulane defense, which entered last week
allowing 470.7 ypg, held Army to 222. That’s bad news for first-year coach Rich
Ellerson’s bunch with the nation’s 25th-best defense coming to town Saturday.
Vandy should have no problem shutting Army’s one dimensional attack as their
fast and hard hitting defense has already seen three SEC opponents. For the Commodores
a win here is crucial to their bowl hopes so look for a fully focused effort.
Against comparable competition a few weeks ago, Vanderbilt torched Rice
for 484 yards en-route to a spread covering 37-13 victory. They’ll steamroll the
hapless Army bunch, who once behind, have no means to mount a comeback.

ROB VENO

Best Bet: Atlanta +3Atlanta +3 San Francisco
San Francisco 16 at Atlanta (-3.5) 20 - 2007 O/U 40.5 1 pm PT
Vastly different scenario coming out of the bye week this time around for the Falcons,
who figure to be very focused this Sunday. Last season, rookie quarterback
Matt Ryan and first year coach Mike Smith were one of the NFL’s biggest surprises as
they hit the open date off of back-to-back upset victories and a 4-2 record. The accolades
they were receiving and the unexpected instant success clearly indicated
they’d come out of the bye week flat and their trip to Philadelphia that week resulted
in a 27-14 loss as nine-point underdogs. The situation is reversed here as Atlanta
was denied upper echelon league status by New England who dominated two
weeks ago. The Falcons had the bye week to refocus and realize that they still have
some improving to do before they can handle road games versus the league’s elite.
Expect the diverse Falcons to be well prepared for this game at San Francisco where
the 49ers are now earning the same type of bulls eye on their chest. Strong situational
spot here for the Falcons, who also own the fundamental edges in this game.