Newsletters - 10/27 - 11/02

THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE ANALYSIS

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29

*VIRGINIA TECH 21 - North Carolina 13—Pointspread a little puffy, as
disappointed Tar Heels are 0-3 in ACC play while Tech remains in thick of
Coastal Division race. Not sure whether UNC’s shaky OL will be able to hold up
against gnarly Hokie front 7. Still, don’t envision Tech star RS frosh RB R.
Williams (119 ypg rushing on 6 ypc) running wild vs. athletic Heel stop unit, and
Hokie QB T. Taylor remains prone to rash decisions. Crafty Carolina mentor
Butch Davis 7-3 last 10 as dog. TV—ESPN
(08-Va. Tech 20-N. CAR. 17...V.16-14 V.42/127 N.32/103 N.14/26/2/204 V.12/22/2/141 V.0 N.2)
(08-Tech +3' 20-17 07-TECH -19 17-10 06-Tech -13 35-10...SR: Virginia Tech 17-9-6)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30

*West Virginia 27 - SOUTH FLORIDA 19—Sure, nimble RS frosh South
Florida QB Daniels is tough to corral. But his constant improvising not leading
to many points for Bulls. Prefer more mature West Virginia sr. signal-caller J.
Brown over Daniels (2 ints., just 54 YP in loss at Pitt) or fellow RS frosh Landi,
who USF tried in relief last week against Panthers. Plus, Mountaineers have far
superior offensive weaponry, led by blazing jr. RB Devine (912 YR & 11 TDs).
CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-W. VA. 13-S. Fla. 7...W.22-21 S.38/167 W.40/139 S.18/33/2/189 W.14/23/0/141 W.1 S.1)
(08-WVA -7 13-7 07-USF +7 21-13 06-Usf +21 24-19...SR: EVEN 2-2)

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 31

CONNECTICUT 20 - Rutgers 16—Huskies have covered all 6 of their lined
games so far this season. And UConn will probably pound out SU win behind
productive RBs Dixon & Todman (combined 1249 YR & 14 TDs!). But no
surprise if it takes all 60 minutes to dispatch Rutgers, which has a hard-nosed
RB in soph Martinek, a maturing field general in touted true frosh QB Savage,
and a righteous defense (only 12 ppg last 6).
(08-RUTGERS 12-Conn. 10...R.17-14 C.36/117 R.34/76 C.14/20/0/236 R.19/35/0/218 R.0 C.0)
(08-RUTGERS +1 12-10 07-CONN. -1 38-19 06-RUTGERS -19' 24-13...SR: Conn. 4-3)

Cincinnati 35 - SYRACUSE 10—Compelled to back undefeated Cincy
even if dead-eye star sr. QB Pike remains sidelined. Confident backup QB
soph Collaros was nearly flawless in last week’s easy home romp over rival
Louisville, and reloaded Bearcat defense hasn’t permitted more than 20 points
in any of first 7 games. Seven of Syracuse’s last 8 losses have come by at least
two full TDs. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(08-CINCY 30-Syr. 10...C.25-8 S.27/152 C.31/140 C.28/44/1/272 S.6/23/1/59 C.1 S.0)
(08-CINCY -21' 30-10 07-Cincy -20' 52-31 06-CINCY -6' 17-3...SR: Cincinnati 5-4)

Central Michigan 26 - BOSTON COLLEGE 23—Thought of going against
BC at Chestnut Hill—where Eagles are spotless this season and have now
covered 16 of their last 21 on board—definitely gives us pause. That’s not to
say sensational CMU sr. QB LeFevour isn’t fully capable of engineering small
upset, however. This year’s very veteran Chippewa defense (only 15 ppg!) is
vastly improved over recent platoons. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(06-Boston College -12 31-24...SR: Boston College 2-0)

Ohio 31 - BALL STATE 17—Ohio threw in an offensive clunker at Kent State,
rushing for negative yards as the Bobcats were held without an offensive TD at
home. However, Ohio 8-2-1 vs. number last 11 on the road, and Solich’s crew
won’t let the Ball State OL dominate as it did at E. Mich. BSU replacement QB
Justice (8 for 31 passing for 91 total YP the last 2 weeks) can’t keep Bobcats
from loading up “D” to stop RBs Lewis & Sykes (combined 504 YR vs. EMU!).
(DNP...SR: Ball State 13-7)

Duke 26 - VIRGINIA 24—ACC scouts insist that clever HC Cutcliffe making
real progress at Duke, covering 10 of 15 since taking over the long-dormant
Blue Devils. With Virginia’s new spread offense, which has found paydirt a total
of just twice during 3 of last 4 games, still experiencing more fits than starts,
side with Duke’s smokin’ sr. QB Lewis (1189 YP in just last 3 games!).
(08-DUKE 31-Va. 3...V.17-16 V.33/110 D.37/84 V.19/42/4/194 D.19/33/2/174 D.0 V.2)
(08-DUKE -7 31-3 07-VIRGINIA -18 24-13 06-Virginia -5' 37-0...SR: Virginia 32-28)

IOWA 26 - Indiana 13—Indiana bound to be a bit depressed after blowing 28-
3 lead at Northwestern last week, and there’s a wide gap between the Hoosiers
and 8-0 Iowa. Still, not enamoured with laying hefty number with Hawkeye club
that doesn’t run the ball particularly well (3.4 ypc) and often plays to the level of
its opposition (four wins by 3 or less, inclduing N. Iowa 17-16 & Ark. St. 24-21).
Indiana QB Chappell & RS frosh RB Willis (5th in Big 10 in rushing; 5 TDs in
league play) will keep it close. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-Iowa 45-IND. 9...Ia.28-15 Ia.51/227 In.28/95 Ia.13/22/0/195 In.22/36/1/191 Ia.0 In.1)
(08-Iowa -5' 45-9 07-Indiana +10 38-20 06-INDIANA +19 31-28...SR: Iowa 40-26-4)

WISCONSIN 22 - Purdue 20—Wins over Ohio St. & Illinois the last two
weeks put Purdue back in the run for one of the many Big Ten bowl bids, but
Boilers still need to win 3 of last 4. Wisconsin had the week off to stew over
back-to-back losses to Ohio St. & Iowa, as Badger QB Tolzien tossed 5 ints. &
0 TDs in those setbacks. Purdue QB Elliott more reliable lately, and although
Badger rush game (held to 215 total YR in last 2 games) will find going easier
vs. Boilers, prefer to take points with Purdue, considering Wisconsin just 3-7 vs.
number last 10 at Camp Randall. TV—ESPN
(06-Wisconsin -6' 24-3...SR: Wisconsin 39-29-8)

Miami-Florida 24 - WAKE FOREST 20—Hurricane defense has been
depleted by attrition. Can sputtering Wake Forest attack (only 13 points in last
2 games) take advantage? Well-coached Deacons’ once solid credentials as
underdog have taken hit in recent seasons, as they’ve covered just 1 of last 6
as short. TV—ABC
(08-MIAMI 16-W. Forest 10...W.13-11 W.52/195 M.33/102 M.15/28/0/194 W.3/8/0/57 M.0 W.1)
(08-MIAMI -2' 16-10...SR: Miami-Florida 6-3)

FLORIDA STATE 38 - North Carolina State 26—Seminoles and
beleaguered mentor Bowden feeling better about themselves after come-frombehind
victory at North Carolina last week. Young, poor-tackling 2009 FSU
defense a shadow of Noles’ proud past stop units. But groovin’ QB Ponder (754
YP & 8 TDP last 2 games!) figures to have field day against defenseless
Wolfpack, who have permitted 101 points in just last 2 outings.
(08-Fla. St. 26-N. CAR. ST. 17...F.28-14 N.22/157 F.45/138 F.23/35/0/254 N.13/25/0/181 F.0 N.0)
(08-Fsu -11 26-17 07-FSU -18 27-10 06-NCS +10 24-20...SR: Florida State 20-9)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 30 - Akron 15—Injury-plagued Akron has dropped 5
straight (1-4 vs. spread), while Huskies played without QB Harnish last week
against Miami-O., as he suffered a knee injury vs. Toledo (out of this game as
well). Zip true frosh QB Nicely was sacked 5 times and Akron ran for 0 yards
last week at Syracuse. NIU’s bread-and-butter ground game should be the
dominating unit back on friendly home field.
(DNP...SR: Northern Illinois 5-4)

OHIO STATE 48 - New Mexico State 6—By how much does OSU HC
Tressel want to win? Our guess is he’s more concerned with keeping team
healthy for upcoming visit to Penn State. However, NMS has dropped last 3
“payday” games vs. BCS foes vs. spread, although none by as many as 40
points. (FIRST MEETING)

*Georgia Tech 30 - VANDERBILT 12—With ACC Coastal Divison-leading
GT closing in on first Top Ten ranking since ‘01, no problem bucking
offensively-impotent Vandy (12 ppg vs. FBS squads), which has failed to cover
last 6 at home. Engineers fast & powerful option orchestrator Nesbitt and
slashing RBs Dwyer & Allen (combined 228 YR vs. UVA) continue to roll vs.
nicked-up ‘Dore defense that hasn’t faced a dynamic option (Army doesn’t
count) in years. GT’s tightening defense (held Cavs to just 198 yds.) is
prepared for Vandy’s mobile QB L. Smith after facing VT’s T. Taylor & UVA’s
Sewell last two weeks. (DNP...SR: Ga. Tech 18-15-3)

TEXAS A&M 27 - Iowa State 23—A&M benefited from five takeaways in last
week’s 52-30 victory at Texas Tech, while ISU gobbled up eight (!) in its 9-7
shocker at Nebraska, four inside the Cyclone five yard-line, two in the end zone
for touchbacks! Don’t expect ISU to match points equally with wide-open Aggie
offense that has rediscovered its ground game (321 YR at Lubbock), relieving
the pass rush on QB Jerrod Johnson. Must note Cyclones’ 5 straight covers as
a visitor, however.
(08-Tex. A&M 49-IOWA ST. 35...I.34-27 I.39/173 T.35/128 I.28/46/0/401 T.31/39/0/381 T.1 I.2)
(08-Texas A&M +3 49-35...SR: Texas A&M 8-1)

Mississippi 24 - AUBURN 13—With these two SEC squads heading in
different directions, prefer Ole Miss, whose self-confidence fully-restored
following solid 30-17 victory vs. Arkansas. Rebels’ strong-armed QB Snead (37
of 55 for 572 yds. last two games) has found his mojo, while Auburn counterpart
Todd has lost his (2 ints., no TDs last 3 games). And with scintillating/versatile
RB/WR McCluster (266 all-purpose yds. vs. Hogs) getting more touches, and
Tigers RB McCalebb slowed by ankle injury, Rebels extend their impressive 9-
2 spread mark mark last 11 away.
(08-MISS. 17-Auburn 7...M.21-17 M.41/233 A.25/75 A.27/43/3/319 M.15/30/0/140 M.0 A.0)
(08-MISS. -6' 17-7 07-AUBURN -18 17-3 06-Auburn -18' 23-17...SR: Auburn 24-9)

*ARKANSAS 54 - Eastern Michigan 7—In this odd intersectional, would
rather lay lumber with an angry UA squad itching to get back to .500 following
back-to-back SEC setbacks. Hogs rifle-armed QB Mallett & mates should
destroy talent-shy EMU defense that’s allowed 101 combined pts. vs. Central
Michigan & Michigan TY. Eagles unproven backup QBs McMahon & Gillett
combined for an ugly 8 of 24 in 29-27 home loss vs. previously winless Ball
State. That’s bad. CABLE TV—ESPNU (FIRST MEETING)
Western Michigan 30 - KENT STATE 23—Surprising Golden Flashes
returning home after two straight road wins. Although resurgent Kent defense
didn’t allow a TD in either of those victories, WMU’s savvy sr. QB Hiller, a 4-year
starter, likely to outduel precocious Kent true frosh triggerman Keith.
(DNP...SR: Western Michigan 31-18-1)

Nebraska 27 - BAYLOR 9—Changes might be in the offing in Lincoln, where
RB Roy Helu has a bum shoulder and QB Zac Lee had 3 ints. last week. But the
Husker defense (8th in nation) remains stout, while the Baylor offense (8 ppg last
3 games) continues to view the end zone mostly as a mirage without speedy QB
Griffin.
(08-NEB. 32-Baylor 20...N.26-16 B.33/216 N.37/161 N.32/46/0/336 B.9/20/0/134 N.1 B.0)
(08-NEBRASKA -13 32-20...SR: Nebraska 10-1)

TULSA 45 - Smu 23—Golden Hurricane seething after blowing an 11-point
fourth-quarter lead at West Division rival UTEP, and Tulsa has covered 7 of last
8 at home. Wouldn’t even think about supporting SMU unless soph QB
Mitchell, who left last week with injured non-throwing shoulder, available for
Mustangs.
(08-Tulsa 37-SMU 31...T.32-21 T.50/321 S.28/151 S.19/34/1/318 T.17/31/2/281 T.1 S.0)
(08-Tulsa -24 37-31 07-TULSA -13' 29-23 06-SMU +6 34-24...SR: SMU 10-6)

UTEP 36 - Uab 24—A nightmare matchup for “technicians.” Miners (just 3
covers in last 19 as chalk!) a vexing money-burner in role of favorite, but good
luck making a persuasive case for taking points with bummed-out Blazers (1-5
vs. spread last 6).
(06-Utep +2 36-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)

BOISE STATE 55 - San Jose State 10—Boise HC Chris Petersen
showing his hand these days as Broncos apt to run up scores whenever
possible (as they did last week at Hawaii) to impress pollsters and stay ahead
of TCU in “BCS Buster” race. That’s bad news for struggling San Jose bunch
that has dropped 9 of last 10 vs. number and can’t slow pace with its 113thranked
rush attack. Note Boise has tallied 58 ppg last 4 on blue carpet vs.
Spartans!
(08-Boise St. 33-SJSU 16...B.28-9 B.48/149 S.21/109 B.26/41/1/244 S.17/31/1/98 B.1 S.1)
(08-Bsu -7' 33-16 07-BSU -25' 42-7 06-Bsu -13' 23-20...SR: Boise State 9-0)

Florida 31 - Georgia 10—Sure, UF has red zone issues. But expect Gators’
brilliant field general Tebow to find his comfort zone vs. low-ranked UGA
defense (SEC-worst 28 ppg; 2ndary 55%,15 TDs, 5 ints.), especially after
surrendering 2 “pick sixes” in 29-19 win at Miss. State last week. And without
adequate ground support (Dawgs last in SEC in rushing), UGA’s QB Cox (9
ints.) repeatedly misfires with UF’s lock-down CBs Haden & Jenkins blanketing
Dawgs primary weapon, WR A.J. Green. (at Jacksonville, FL) TV-CBS
(08-Fla. 49-Georgia 10...F.22-21 F.38/185 G.29/106 G.20/37/3/292 F.13/17/0/188 F.0 G.1)
(08-Fla. -6' 49-10 07-Ga. +7' 42-30 06-Fla. -13' 21-14 all at J’ville...SR: Georgia 46-38-2)

Toledo 31 - MIAMI-OHIO 16—Miami-O is just 2-20 SU and has lost 13
straight, ranks in the bottom 3 in the nation in scoring, sacks allowed, rush
offense, punting and turnover margin. Toledo is likely to have QB Aaron Opelt
(2nd in MAC in passing) back in action after he sat out the last two games with
a shoulder injury. Rocket defenders LB Donald & FS Church dominate anemic,
winless RedHawks.
(08-TOLEDO 42-Miami 14...T.22-17 T.46/377 M.23/75 M.29/46/2/196 T.14/26/0/139 T.1 M.2)
(08-TOLEDO -3 42-14...SR: Miami-Ohio 27-21-1)

OREGON STATE 31 - Ucla 13—Rick Neuheisel has just about exhausted his
supply of mulligans from UCLA boosters who want to see a bit more than a Pac-
10 version of Vanderbilt’s offense from Bruin brain trust that can’t seem to coax
much more than FGs (19 of ‘em already by PK Forbath!) from dormant attack.
And with UCLA QB situation still in merry-go-round mode, doubt Bruin fade (no
wins or covers last 4) abates at OSU, where Mike Riley once again squeezing
a lot more out of his material than expected.
(08-Ore. St. 34-UCLA 6...O.18-17 O.48/201 U.27/48 O.16/22/1/222 U.20/43/3/189 O.1 U.1)
(08-Osu -7' 34-6 07-Ucla +2' 40-14 06-UCLA +1' 25-7...SR: UCLA 39-14-4)

NAVY 24 - Temple 21—Even with starting QB Dobbs sidelined by knee
injury, resilient Midshipmen still managed to slug their way to home victory over
ACC rep Wake Forest last week. However, points should work with improved
Temple (5-1 SU & vs. spread last 6) and terrific true frosh RB Pierce (698 YR &
9 TDs in last 5 games).
(08-NAVY 33-Tem. 27 (OT)...N.23-21 N.57/293 T.37/69 T.21/28/0/340 N.8/12/1/106 N.0 T.2)
(08-NAVY -7' 33-27 (OT) 07-Navy -21 30-19 06-NAVY -32 42-6...SR: Navy 5-4)

California 27 - ARIZONA STATE 16—Since any indicators that ASU attack
about to come to life remain elusive, not sure that potential absence of QB
Sullivan (yanked late due to knee at Stanford in favor of 6-8 true frosh Osweiler)
a big deal in Tempe. A bigger Sun Devil concern might be “D” that was exposed
vs. the most well-balanced attack (Stanford) it has faced this season.
Significant offensive competence edge to Cal now that confidence restored for
QB Riley (6 TDP last 2 weeks). TV—ABC
(08-CAL. 24-Ariz. St. 14...C.18-16 C.33/79 A.32/71 C.17/28/1/198 A.20/35/2/165 C.0 A.1)
(08-CAL. -9' 24-14 07-ASU -3 31-20 06-CAL -8 49-21...SR: EVEN 14-14)

Michigan 31 - ILLINOIS 14—Illinois finally got a cover last week at Purdue,
but Illini offense can’t be trusted to put many points on the board against
revenge-minded Michigan. Coach Zook’s attack (113th in scoring) has been
remarkably unproductive this season, but, interestingly, the Illini defense not
much better (104th in total “D”). Michigan gains bowl-eligibility with a win, and
Wolverines avenge 45-20 loss to Illinois LY. REG. TV—ABC
(08-Ill. 45-MICH. 20...I.19-17 I.47/191 M.35/69 I.13/26/0/310 M.18/35/0/250 I.0 M.2)
(08-Illinois +2 45-20 07-Michigan -1' 27-17...SR: Michigan 66-22-2)

Missouri 21 - COLORADO 20—Mizzou was able to rip CU (141-23
combined score in three years) in recent meetings with Chase Daniel at the
wheel. But strong-armed soph Blaine Gabbert is currently traversing the QB
learning curve with sore right ankle, and the rebuilt Tiger defense has often
been found wanting since the start of Big XII play (MU yielding 34 ppg, albeit vs.
three bowl-level foes so far).
(08-MO. 58-Colo. 0...M.25-14 M.33/189 C.35/41 M.31/40/1/302 C.21/34/0/158 M.0 C.1)
(08-MIZZOU -24 58-0 07-Mizzou -3' 55-10 06-MIZZOU -15 28-13...SR: Missouri 39-31-3)

*OKLAHOMA 38 - Kansas State 6—Even with a handful of offensive starters
out last week, Oklahoma was able to get the job done (35-13 at Kansas). KState
is improved under Bill Snyder Part Deux, but let’s not forget the Wildcats
trailed 38-0 at the half of their last road game at Texas Tech, where the KSU
defense gave up 554 YP, 8 TDP, and 739 yards overall. Sooners 8-3 vs. the
number their last 11 in Norman. Can they extend without Bradford?
(08-Okla. 58-KAN. ST. 35...23-23 O.45/273 K.32/64 K.30/52/3/486 O.13/32/0/255 O.1 K.2)
(08-Oklahoma -18' 58-35...SR: Oklahoma 68-17-4)

*Texas 24 - OKLAHOMA STATE 20—Texas, if it can run the table, appears
to have a reservation in the BCS title game. However, OSU has given the
Longhorns fits the L2Ys. And the 6-1 Cowboys executing consistently for stillunderrated
QB Zac Robinson (12 TDs, 3 ints.), now even more of a team leader
TY with RB Kendall Hunter injured & top WR Dez Bryant suspended. Hunter
(check status) expected to return soon. OSU’s OL (only four sacks) playing
well. TV—ABC
(08-TEXAS 28-Okla. St. 24...T.32-22 O.37/217 T.32/113 T.38/45/1/391 O.17/27/0/199 T.1 O.1)
(08-TEXAS -12' 28-24 07-Texas -2' 38-35 06-TEXAS -18 36-10...SR: Texas 21-2)

NEVADA 61 - Hawaii 24—No truth to the rumors that recent basketball-like
scores posted by Chris Ault’s Pistol have Nevada considering moving its games
to adjacent Lawlor Center, where Wolf Pack hoopsters roam. And in a ballistics
contest, Hawaii Red Gun at a big disadvantage these days post QB Alexander’s
injury (Warriors no covers in his absence). Note Ault now an eye-opening 18-
3 as Mackay Stadium chalk since ‘04!
(08-HAWAII 38-Nevada 31...N.21-17 N.40/308 H.28/42 H.23/36/2/289 N.14/28/0/173 H.0 N.2)
(08-HAWAII +3' 38-31 07-Hawaii -6 28-26 06-HAWAII -12 41-34...SR: Hawaii 7-6)

TCU 48 - Unlv 6—Oddsmakers will make us pay for TCU recommendation.
But recent efforts indicate Horned Frogs (outscored CSU & BYU combined 82-
13 the past 2 weeks!) have an eye on BCS, and fundamentals have always
been troubling for Mike Sanford’s UNLV spread vs. d.c. Dick Bumpas’
voracious, speed-based TCU 4-2-5 that has dominated recent meetings. Note
Frogs 10-2 last 12 laying DDs at Fort Worth.
(08-Tcu 44-UNLV 14...T.27-12 T.52/259 U.33/108 T.16/29/0/151 U.8/22/1/67 T.2 U.2)
(08-Tcu -15 44-14 07-TCU -18 34-10 06-Tcu -20 25-10...SR: TCU 6-1)

Air Force 24 - COLORADO STATE 17—Land-locked Air Force option (only
Army ranks lower in passing) resembling its most one-dimensional versions of
the long-ago Ken Hatfield & Fisher DeBerry regimes. But Falcons at least
compensating with an opportunistic, veteran “D” that has recorded a whopping
23 takeaways to help rank first nationally in TO margin (+18!). Injuries piling up
for CSU (S Kubiak a key loss for “D”), and production of slow-footed QB Stucker
(only 48% last 3) waning.
(08-A. FORCE 38-Colo. St. 17...19-19 A.51/284 C.30/103 C.19/36/2/251 A.6/8/0/171 A.0 C.0)
(08-AFA -10 38-17 07-Afa +3 45-21 06-AFA -6 24-21...SR: Air Force 27-19-1)

NORTHWESTERN 23 - Penn State 27—The dog has covered 11 of
last 12 Northwestern games, and after uplifting rally from 25-points down
against Indiana, look for Wildcats to continue that trend. Won’t knock powerful
Penn State, but the Nittany Lion offense rarely as explosive as last season, and
production is off a TD per game from ‘08. Nittany Lions collected 4 turnovers at
Michigan to cruise to win. Wildcat QB Kafka won’t be so generous. CABLE
TV—ESPN2 (06-PENN STATE -19' 33-7...SR: Penn State 9-3)

IDAHO 31 - Louisiana Tech 22—We can excuse Idaho for defensive noshow
and first pointspread “L” of season, inflicted last week by Nevada. More
pedestrian La Tech, however, lacks components to stretch Vandal “D” as does
the Wolf Pack Pistol. As long as Idaho doesn’t fall behind as it did at Reno,
much-improved Vandal infantry (with possible 1st-round pick 330-lb. G Iupati
leading the way) will do better job keeping stop unit off field. Note Bulldogs 1-
10-1 vs. line last 12 as visitor!
(08-LA. TECH 46-Idaho 14...L.30-13 L.59/364 I.19/15 I.22/40/2/224 L.13/22/0/192 L.0 I.1)
(08-TECH -20' 46-14 07-Tech -3' 28-16 06-Idaho +3 24-14...SR: Louisiana Tech 3-1)

FRESNO STATE 33 - Utah State 24—With covers already vs. the likes of
Utah, Texas A&M, BYU & Nevada, no reason USU can’t be similarly
competitive vs. Fresno. Livewire Aggie QB Borel a capable playmaker, and
shrewd 1st-year Utag HC Andersen (formerly successful d.c. at Utah) will have
his “D” scheming to limit Fresno’s Ryan Matthews (leads nation 162 ypg) from
controlling tempo. USU on 9-1-1 spread run since mid ‘08!
(08-Fres. St. 30-UTAH ST. 28...F.25-21 U.39/206 F.33/154 F.25/36/0/257 U.15/24/0/193 F.0 U.0)
(08-Fsu -15' 30-28 07-FSU -20' 38-27 06-USU +26' 13-12...SR: Fresno State 13-10-1)

*Mississippi State 20 - KENTUCKY 19—In this visitor-oriented series (3
straight covers by away team), lean to developing MSU off combative 29-19
home defeat vs. Florida. Bulldogs record-breaking & motivated RB A. Dixon
(only 48 YR in ‘08 meeting) finds seams vs. Wildcats’ yielding rush defense
(SEC-worst 4.7 ypc) that could be missing all-SEC LB Micah Johnson (see
Special Ticker). And doubt UK’s top playmaker WR/QB Cobb goes wild vs.
jelling MSU stop unit that’s allowed only one offensive TD last two games.
08-Ky. 14-MISS. ST. 13...M.18-17 K.36/128 M.27/43 M.26/42/1/261 K.16/30/1/146 K.1 M.0)
(08-Ky. +2' 14-13 07-Msu +13' 31-14 06-Ky. -1 34-31...SR: Kentucky 21-15)

TEXAS TECH 36 - Kansas 34—Prefer to take points in this anticipated
shootout, as both offenses loaded with firepower and both defenses proving
vulnerable. TT is humiliated after last week’s 5 giveaways, 321 YR, and 52
points allowed vs. rival A&M, while crafty KU QB Todd Reesing mortified after
tossing ints. on Jayhawks’ first three possessions last week vs. Oklahoma! KU
7-3 last 10 as road dog. TV—ABC
(08-Tex. Tech 63-KANSAS 21...T.29-19 K.33/161 T.29/138 T.38/48/0/418 K.16/26/3/154 T.1 K.2)
(08-Tech +1 63-21...SR: Texas Tech 10-1)

SAN DIEGO STATE 41 - New Mexico 13—To paraphrase Henny
Youngman, “Take New Mexico...please!” But not sure we can find any takers
for Lobos, who continued to plumb new depths of ineptitude last week vs. lowly
UNLV bunch that hadn’t won on MWC road since George W. Bush’s first term.
Meanwhile, evidence indicates Brady Hoke has SDS (3-0-1 vs. line last 4) on
upswing...and you know Aztec d.c. Rocky Long would love to remind his former
employers what they’ve been missing TY.
(08-N. MEX. 70-S. Diego St. 7...N.28-13 N.63/419 S.22/66 S.19/39/1/161 N.10/15/0/146 N.1 S.2)
(08-UNM -15 70-7 07-Unm -8' 20-17 06-UNM -10' 41-14...SR: San Diego State 20-15)

*Notre Dame 44 - Washington State 18—After a series of heart-stoppers
that might have even caused Charlie Weis to lose some weight, Notre Dame will
appreciate this “scrimmage” vs. Wazzu while the Irish fans enjoy San Antonio’s
River Walk. But keep in mind that backdoor has been staying open lately for
Cougs (a surprising 8-3 last 11 on board!) and encouraging frosh QB Tuel. (at
San Antonio, TX) TV—NBC (DNP...SR: ND 1-0)

*South Carolina 17 - TENNESSEE 16—Sure, UT QB Crompton has
silenced critics with 2 straight quality efforts, but still prefer to “take” with
defensively-stout USC (18 ppg), a perfect 4-0 as an underdog TY. ‘Cocks
mobile, accurate QB Garcia (22 of 33 for 312 yds. vs. Vandy), who is better
equipped to evade pressure on roll-outs than aforementioned Crompton, now
has go-to guy in gifted frosh WR Jeffery (8 catches vs. Vandy; 5 TDC last 4
games). And Dr. Phil might be needed to help Vols cope with lingering
emotional pain of their failed upset attempt at Tuscaloosa week ago. CABLE
TV—ESPN
08-S. CAR. 27-Tenn. 6...11-11 S.44/101 T.28/34 T.15/32/1/173 S.10/20/1/154 S.0 T.2)
(08-USC -6 27-6 07-TENN. -3 27-24 (OT) 06-Tenn. -3' 31-24...SR: Tennessee 21-4-2)

*OREGON 29 - Southern Cal 25—SC vulnerability confirmed by series of
close escapes vs. arguably lesser foes (Ohio State, U-Dub, Notre Dame,
Oregon State) than Oregon. And Trojans (1-5 last 6 vs. line; 7-15 last 22 on
Pac-10 trail) a long way from automatic “go with” status these days. Moreover,
while Pete Carroll’s headhunters look for victims to pop, offenses have started
to find plenty of holes in SC stop unit (allowing 32 ppg last 2). Red-hot Ducks
(won last 6, covered last 5) and QB Masoli can similarly capitalize. Note Trojans
0-3 SU since ‘06 in Beaver State! REGIONAL TV—ABC
(08-S. CAL 44-Ore. 10...S.28-18 S.39/155 O.39/60 S.24/36/1/443 O.20/33/1/179 S.1 O.1)
(08-USC -16 44-10 07-OREGON -3 24-17 06-USC -8 35-10...SR: Southern Cal 37-16-2)

HOUSTON 35 - Southern Miss 31—Big edge at QB for Houston. Quicktrigger
Cougar jr. Keenum has thrown for 7754 yards & 64 TDs (vs. only 15 ints.)
in just last 1+ seasons, while USM spreadmeister A. Davis suffered seasonending
foot injury a few weeks ago. Still, Eagles probably have enough
playmakers on defense and retain enough offensive weaponry to wage 60-
minute battle.
(06-USM -1' 31-27, HOUSTON -5 34-20...SR: Southern Miss 7-4)

*UTAH 24 - Wyoming 16—Now that we’re at Halloween, some truths about
the MWC have been established. Such as Utah being a notch down from LY’s
Sugar Bowl champs and missing the dimension of thundering RB Asiata to help
stretch margins. As well as Wyo (5-1 vs. line) being upgraded and more
organized under new HC Christensen. Representative Cowboy “D” (23 ppg) can
keep Wyo within earshot as long as frosh QB Carta-Samuels continues to limit
mistakes.
(08-Utah 40-WYO. 7...W.14-11 W.44/184 U.44/123 U.11/20/0/119 W.10/23/3/68 U.0 W.2)
(08-Utah -23 40-7 07-UTAH -13' 50-0 06-WYO. +3' 31-15...SR: Utah 49-32-1)

*LSU 42 - Tulane 3—Sure, LSU has upcoming showdown at Bama. But even
semi-distracted Tigers should easily dispatch talent-thin, sliding Tulane, a
money-burning 1-9 vs. spread last 10. LSU’s athletic QB Jefferson (21 of 31 for
242 yds. vs. Auburn) more effectively “checking-down,” while Green Wave’s
befuddled HC Toledo forced to insert RS frosh QB Griffin to ignite moribund
attack (13 ppg). No spark here with LSU’s defensive wiz Chavis working his
magic (Tigers permitted just 1 meaningful TD vs. Auburn & Florida!).
(08-LSU 35-Tulane 10...L.21-11 L.46/231 T.30/72 L.8/20/1/99 T.12/24/0/91 L.0 T.1)
(08-LSU -27 35-10 07-Lsu -41' 34-9 06-TULANE -36' 49-7...SR: LSU 68-22-7)

*Michigan State 34 - MINNESOTA 21—Crucial game for a pair of 4-4 teams.
Spartans appear more likely to rise to the occasion, especially with key Minny
WR Decker suffering a foot injury. Gopher QB Weber has 5 ints. and 0 TDPs in
last 3 games, and if Decker can’t make a quick recovery, Minny compromised.
Spartan QB Cousins has passed for 478 yds., with 0 ints. in last 2 games. MSU
owns significant defensive & special teams edges.
(06-Minn. -1 31-18...SR: Michigan State 25-16)

ADDED GAMES

LOUISVILLE 31 - Arkansas State 22—Good chance for careening Cardinals
and their besieged mentor Kragthorpe to get a victory. ASU offense mostly
stalled in earlier trips to Nebraska & Iowa, although one must question whether
languishing Louisville defense really much (any?) stouter than most Sun Belt
stop units. (FIRST MEETING)

La.-Lafayette 31- FLORIDA INTL. 21—Have faith smartly-coached 4-3 ULL
bounces back following stinging 51-29 home loss vs. FAU. After all, Ragin’
Cajuns have whipped FIU 4 straight times (4-0 vs. spread), and Panther offense
a bit discombobulated after mustering just 223 yds. & 11 FDs in 27-10 setback
at Arkansas State. History repeats.
(08-LA.-LAF. 49-Fla. Intl. 20...L.21-11 L.57/228 F.31/117 L.13/19/0/216 F.12/24/1/153 L.0 F.2)
(08-ULL -10 49-20 07-Ull -3' 38-28 06-Ull -4' 17-7...SR: La.-Lafayette 6-0)

NORTH TEXAS 36 - Western Kentucky 30—Winless WKU’s transition to
full-fledged Sun Belt membership not going too smoothly. But Tops moving the
ball somewhat consistently behind livewire QB Jakes, and not sure UNT can
stretch margin if QB Dodge still out (backup Tune went all the way in last week’s
lopsided loss vs. Troy).
(08-N. Texas 51-W. KY. 40...21-21 W.42/314 N.29/173 N.23/37/1/214 W.13/27/3/190 N.1 W.1)
(08-N. Texas +17' 51-40 07-N. TEXAS (NL) 27-26...SR: North Texas 2-0)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31 - Middle Tennessee State 24—Déjà vu in the Sun
Belt, with Howard Schnellenberger’s FAU staging another rally in league play
after taking its usual non-conference lumps. With MTSU spread blowing hot and
cold, emergence of slamming RB Morris (181 YR vs. ULL) as a lethal
complement for sr. QB Rusty Smith should allow Owls to continue recent
upswing.
(08-MTSU 14-Fla. Atl. 13...F.18-13 F.41/153 M.29/55 M.24/36/0/268 F.16/27/2/210 M.1 F.2)
(08-MTS -2' 14-13 07-FAU -2' 27-14 06-MTS -12' 35-14...SR: EVEN 3-3)

*TROY 32 - La.-Monroe 19—Admittedly, ULM’s chances severely
compromised by absence of QB Revell (out until mid-November with thumb
injury). But if oddsmakers inflate, RS frosh backup Wells appears competent
enough to get Warhawks (4-1 vs. line last 5 vs. Troy) thru backdoor.
(08-LA.-MON. 31-Troy 30...T.22-21 T.28/165 L.47/161 T.23/36/1/221 L.20/32/1/169 L.0 T.1)
(08-ULM +10' 31-30 07-TROY -13 24-7 06-TROY -9' 24-19...SR: Troy 7-3-1)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1

*Marshall 23 - UCF 21—Go-with vs. go-with? You betcha, as these two
revitalized C-USA East squads have each covered 5 of their last 6 games.
Although Golden Knights benefit from vociferous crowd support in Orlando,
prefer to side with surprisingly stingy Marshall defense (just 15 ppg last 6!) and
Thundering Herd star RB D. Marshall (136 ypg rushing—2nd in nation). TV-ESPN
(08-Ucf 30-MARSH. 14...U.17-8 U.65/213 M.29/145 M.7/29/2/84 U.4/17/0/29 U.1 M.2)
(08-Ucf +7 30-14 07-UCF -14 47-13 06-Ucf +3' 23-22...SR: UCF 4-3)
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3

*BUFFALO vs. Bowling Green
(08-Buf. 40-B.G. 34 (OT)...Bu.23-22 Bg.47/139 Bu.25/74 Bu.29/41/1/297 Bg.24/33/1/240 Bu.0 Bg.1)
(08-Buf. +4 40-34 (OT) 07-Bgu P 31-17 06-BGU -23 48-40 (OT)...SR: Bowling Green 4-2)

KEY RELEASES

DENVER by 7 over Baltimore
SEATTLE by 1 over Dallas
OVER THE TOTAL in the Atlanta-New Orleans game

Denver 23 - BALTIMORE 16—Maybe it took last week’s “bye” to slow
Denver’s early-season momentum. Then again, maybe not. Meanwhile,
Baltimore finding ways to lose close games, and there’s increasing chatter in
AFC North circles about the Ravens’ defensive slowdown (including Ray Lewis’
diminishing pursuit skills), perhaps exacerbated by the quicker game tempo set
by maturing Joe Flacco and the offense. Smallish Raven CBs Foxworth &
Washington in tough vs. Kyle Orton’s big targets, WR Marshall & TE Scheffler
(often flanking out wide). Insiders raving about Denver halftime
adjustments...especially zero 2nd-half TDs allowed in last five games!
(06-DENVER -4' 13-3...SR: Baltimore 4-3)

CHICAGO 30 - Cleveland 9—Like an oasis on Lake Shore Drive, Cleveland
is showing up at just the right time for reeling Chicago, licking its wounds after
a pair of road defeats, including its 45-10 embarrassment last week in Cincy.
The Browns’ offense still better than even money not to find the end zone (which
it hasn’t in 4 of 7 games TY, and 10 of 13 dating to late ‘08), especially with
Derek Anderson (23 of 70 the past three weeks!) posting worse passing
numbers than Terrelle Pryor! So the mounting Bear defensive injury list
probably not a major concern, at least this week. It’s time, however, for Jay
Cutler (10 picks already) to nip the fast-growing Windy City criticism in the bud.
(2009 Preseason: Chicago -2' beat Cleveland 26-23 at Chicago)
(05-CLEVELAND -3 20-10...SR: Cleveland 9-4)

Houston 23 - BUFFALO 13—It’s a good thing the NFL isn’t Dancing with
the Stars, as Buffalo hasn’t been penalized for its lack of style points despite its
back-to-back wins. But the Bills have little room for error with an OL that’s
sometimes going with four first-year players and managed to survive vs. Jets &
Panthers (gaining only 167 yards vs. the latter) and with backup QB Ryan
Fitzpatrick subbing for concussion-recovering Trent Edwards. If offensive
competence means anything, it’s advantage Houston, especially with Matt
Schaub (8 TDP last 3 weeks) posting Pro Bowl-like numbers (but check status
of star WR Andre Johnson, pulled in 4th Q with chest injury vs. 49ers last week).
(06-Buff +2' 24-21...SR: Buff. 3-1)

GREEN BAY 31 - Minnesota 23—Certainly can’t get carried away by recent
wins over the Lions and Browns, but improved Green Bay defensive efforts vs.
those two (who combined for only 3 points) suggest the Packer stop unit
absorbing more of new defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ 3-4 principles.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers finally enjoyed his first sack-less game this year in
Cleveland. Of course, Minnesota offers a stiffer challenge, and doubt Ryan
Grant (51 YR in first meeting) rumbles vs. stout Viking rush defense after
gaining 148 vs. Brownies. But Rodgers (384 YP in first meeting) should be able
to pick on Minny secondary that might be without key CB Antoine Winfield
(foot). What sort of reception will Brett Favre get in his return to Lambeau Field?
(09-MINN. 30-G. Bay 23...M.22-19 G.17/82 M.30/63 G.26/37/1/342 M.24/32/0/271 M.1 G.1)
(08-G.BAY 24-Min. 19...G.21-15 M.33/187 G.27/139 G.18/22/0/178 M.16/35/1/168 G.0 M.0)
(08-MIN. 28-G. Bay 27...M.18-12 M.41/220 G.18/74 M.15/28/3/141 G.15/26/0/110 M.0 G.0)
(09-MINN. -3' 30-23; 08-G. BAY -2' 24-19, MINN. -2' 28-27...SR: Green Bay 49-47-1)

INDIANAPOLIS 24 - San Francisco 19—Mike Singletary has squeezed as
much as he could out of Shaun Hill’s limitations at QB, so no surprise if S.F.
makes the switch to Alex Smith after he rallied the 49ers admirably at Houston.
Indy and its 15-game reg.-season win streak presents an even tougher
challenge, especially with its defense back to full strength with CB Hayden & S
Sanders returning. But The Colts are beating up a lot of flawed foes lately, and
if 49ers don’t fall way behind as they did vs. the Texans, they won’t have to
abandon the potential infantry diversion provided by RB Gore. Expect WR
Michael Crabtree (5 catches in debut) to make more of an impact. Note Mike
Singletary’s impressive spread mark (5-0-1) last 6 as dog.
(05-Ind. -15' 28-3...SR: Indianapolis 23-18)

Miami 20 - NY JETS 17—After Miami exploited the N.Y. defense at key
times with its retro single-wing-style “wildcat” variations (sometimes four RBs,
two ends, no QB), Jets’ HC Rex Ryan termed his team’s performance a
“complete embarrassment” and “horrendous day for our defense.” He wants
atonement. But let’s not forget that the game marked the coming of age of
Dolphins 1½-year vet QB Chad Henne, whose 20 for 26 and 2 TDs passing were
much needed. Now, Ryan’s defense has lost its “Clydesdale” in the middle
(360-pound NT Kris Jenkins) and also might bewithout LB Bart Scott while his
“O” is now without its thoroughbred in the backfield (RB Leon Washington).
(09-MIAMI 31-Jets 27...M.23-20 M.36/151 N.30/138 M.21/28/0/262 N.12/24/0/171 M.0 N.0)
(08-Jets 20-MIAMI 14...M.18-15 N.31/112 M.17/49 M.26/43/1/228 N.15/22/0/181 N.1 M.0)
(08-Miami 24-JETS 17...M.18-16 M.29/126 N.21/80 N.21/41/3/251 M.22/31/0/193 M.1 N.1)
(09-MIAMI +3 31-27; 08-NY Jets -3 20-14, Miami +2' 24-17...SR: NY Jets 46-41-1)

St. Louis 20 - DETROIT 17—How quickly things change! The Lions, 1-5 TY
and 1-22 their last 23 games, are now wearing the target of the hunted (!!!) vs.
the 0-7 Rams, winless in their last 17. Detroit was last favored in 2008’s season
opener vs. the Falcons in Matt Ryan’s first start, which the Lions lost. Detroit,
whose losing streak reached 19 before Washington arrived in town a month
ago, is hoping power-armed rookie QB Matthew Stafford (knee; out last two
games) and extra-dimension WR Calvin Johnson (22 recs.; out last game with
knee problem) are both near 100% can both return. Without that certainty,
prefer to side with veteran Rams’ duo of RB Steven Jackson & QB Marc Bulger.
(06-ST. LOUIS -5' 41-34...SR: St. Louis 41-38-1)

Seattle 23 - DALLAS 22—Few teams needed a bye as much as
Seattle, which couldn’t escape injuries in its first six games. Now, the rested
and somewhat-healthier Seahawks are in great need of a victory to make the
second half of their season relevant. Veteran QB Hasselbeck (7 TDs, 3 ints.)
and his fine cast of receivers (wideouts Burleson, Houshmandzadeh & Branch,
plus TE Carlson) have a great chance to exploit the tackling problems that have
arisen time and again in the Dallas back seven. And RB Julius Jones (290 YR)
eager for a shot at his former teammates. This one won’t come easy for Dallas;
maybe it won’t come at all.
(08-DALLAS 34-Sea. 9...D.24-19 D.24/116 S.23/80 D.22/34/1/331 S.22/38/1/242 D.0 S.1)
(08-DALLAS -12 34-9...SR: Dallas 7-5)

SAN DIEGO 31 - Oakland 10—Revenge game for Oakland, whose cover in
the first meeting improved the Raiders’ pointspread record vs. S.D. to 2-11 the
last 13 meetings. It was in that contest that the Chargers had three starting
OLmen leave the game with injuries. Now, S.D. appears to be stabilizing (after
a third straight poor start to the season), as LaDainian Tomlinson & Shawne
Merriman much quicker following early injury recovery. And the differential in
QB competence in this one is measured in parsecs. (Will the Raiders turn to
Gradkowski?).
(09-S. Diego 24-OAK. 20...19-19 O.32/148 S.23/77 S.24/36/1/240 O.14/32/2/218 S.1 O.1)
(08-S. Diego 28-OAK. 18...S.18-15 S.30/141 O.23/72 O.22/37/1/251 S.14/25/2/154 S.0 O.1)
(08-S. DIEGO 34-Oak. 7...S.17-9 S.46/158 O.16/54 S.10/22/0/214 O.17/30/3/109 S.1 O.1)
(09-S. Diego -9' 24-20; 08-S. Diego -8 28-18, S. DIEGO -10 34-7...SR: Oakland 55-43-2)

Jacksonville 27 - TENNESSEE 24—Titan coach Jeff Fisher increased the
pressure on himself with his dubious decision to wear Peyton Manning’s jersey
at a fund-raising event honoring Tony Dungy, saying he just “wanted to feel like
a winner.” Perhaps not a good idea for a coach whose team has lost 8 straight
games (1-7 vs. the spread), was humiliated 59-0 in its last start, and is -10 in
turnovers TY. Moreover, Tennessee being criticized for its lack of situation
substitution on defense, even though its limited flexibility due to key DB injuries
(check status of CB Cortland Finnegan & nickel-back Vincent Fuller) certainly
a factor. Not a team that should be laying points vs. the productive Jacksonville
Maurice Jones-Drew (8 TDR) & David Garrard duo.
(09-JACK. 37-Tenn. 17...J.27-19 J.30/137 T.19/95 J.27/37/0/305 T.29/48/2/284 J.1 T.1)
(08-TENN. 17-Jack. 10...T.14-13 T.32/137 J.17/33 T.14/24/2/172 J.23/35/2/156 T.0 J.1)
(08-Tenn. 24-JACK. 14...J.17-13 J.32/140 T.33/114 T.13/23/1/230 J.13/30/1/117 T.0 J.0)
(09-JACK. +3 37-17; 08-TENN. +3 17-10, Tenn. -2' 24-14...SR: Tennessee 17-13)

ARIZONA 28 - Carolina 13—Rematch of NFC Divisional Round playoff
game of LY, when Jake Delhomme played Santa Claus with six giveaways!
With Arizona smothering the run TY (No. 1 thru Week Six), Carolina can’t count
on getting its preferred overland attack rolling. And Delhomme (13 ints., 1 lost
fumble in 2009) still laboring mightily. If Panthers can’t possess the ball, Kurt
Warner & his receivers should dominate. Rookie RB Beanie Wells’ 67 YR vs. the
NYG defense an immensely positive sign. Carolina just 2-9 last 11 as a road dog!
(08-CAR. 27-Ariz. 23...A.25-22 C.29/113 A.14/50 A.36/51/1/375 C.20/28/0/238 C.1 A.1)
(08-Ariz. 33-CAR. 13...A.21-16 A.43/145 C.15/75 A.21/32/1/215 C.17/34/5/194 A.0 C.1)
(08-CAROLINA -4 27-23, Arizona +10 33-13 (Playoffs)...SR: Carolina 6-3)

N.Y. Giants 21 - PHILADELPHIA 16—G-men have covered their last four
visits to “The Linc,” and their willingness to run the ball should serve them well
once again. Eagles hoping the acquisition of Will Witherspoon from the Rams
can solve their MLB problems. The two key questions here seem to be whether
N.Y.’s up-the-field pass rush can disrupt Donovan McNabb enough to keep him
from exploiting his high-quality targets, and whether Eli Manning can shake his
mini-slump to help out his youthful, inconsistent WRs. We’ll trust the NYG DL
vs. the Philly OL (six sacks two weeks ago in Oakland).
(08-Nyg 36-PHI. 31...N.26-17 N.45/219 P.21/106 P.17/36/1/194 N.17/31/1/182 N.1 P.1)
(08-Phi. 20-GIANTS 14...P.24-14 P.40/144 N.24/88 P.19/30/0/187 N.13/27/0/123 P.0 N.0)
(08-Phi. 23-NYG 11...P.20-16 N.32/138 P.28/59 P.22/40/2/217 N.15/29/2/169 P.0 N.1)
(08-Gia. +3 36-31, Phi +6' 20-14, Phi. +4 23-11 (Playoffs)...SR: NY Giants 81-69-2)

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2

OVER THE TOTAL *NEW ORLEANS 41 - Atlanta 24—Even with the
uncanny Drew Brees (14 TDs, 5 ints.) throwing three ints. last week, the prolific
Saints still scored 46 to win at Miami, giving them six straight victories by 12
points or more! Doubt that Atlanta has the pass rush to duplicate Miami’s five
sacks of last week, especially considering that the underrated N.O. OL allowed
Brees to be touched only twice by the Giants’ pass rushers two weeks ago.
Moreover, Brees’ heroics have often overshadowed the substantial
improvement in the Saints’ ground game. Rebuilding Falcon defense already
down two starters (DT Jerry, CB B. Williams), and N.O. 13-3 “over” its last 16 at
home, with Brees often unstoppable. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-ATL. 34-N. Orl. 20...N.25-18 A.36/113 N.17/105 N.31/58/3/414 A.16/23/0/248 A.0 N.0)
(08-N. ORL. 29-Atl. 25...N.24-22 N.30/184 A.30/99 A.24/33/1/315

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH (Thursday, October
22)...Ugh! Heels back on Thursday again! No covers last 3 TY for
Butch, although he is 7-3 his last 10 as dog. Butch 1-6-1 vs. line last
8 reg.-season games. Butch has been within single digits of Beamer
the last two years, Beamer has covered 4 of last 5 tries at Blacksburg
since late ‘08 but is just 3-8 as chalk since LY. Tech edge-slight to
UNC, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at SOUTH FLORIDA (Friday, October
30)...Bulls have won 2 of last 3 and covered the last 3 meetings. Bill
Stewart just 6-12 vs. line since LY (2-4 TY). Leavitt 7-4 as dog since
‘06. Tech edge-USF, based on series and team trends.

RUTGERS at UCONN...UConn had covered 4 straight in series
and was 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 against Rutgers before bowing in 12-10
ugly-fest LY. Note Schiano 10-3 as dog since ‘06 (though 0-1 in role
TY). Huskies on 7-game cover streak since late LY. Tech edge-
UConn, based on series and recent team trends.

CINCINNATI at SYRACUSE...Bearcats have won last 3 in series
by 14 or more but only have one cover to show for it (1-1-1 vs. line).
Cincy 5-2 vs. line last 7 as visitor (2-1 as road chalk TY). Tech edge-
Cincy, based on road mark.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BOSTON COLLEGE...Ugh! Spaziani 4-
0 SU and vs. line at home TY, Eagles now 16-5 vs. line last 21 at
Chestnut Hill (10-5 last 15 as home chalk). BC also has covered last
4 vs. MAC foes. Chips 2-0 as dog TY and 12-5 in role since ‘06,
however. Tech edge-slight to BC, based on team trends.

OHIO at BALL STATE...Stan Parrish no covers in 3 tries as host
TY, indeed the road team has covered 6 of first 7 Ball State games!
Solich 8-3 vs. line away since LY. Tech edge-Solich, based on
team and series trends.

DUKE at VIRGINIA...Duke now 9-5 vs. line under Cutcliffe since
LY. Tech edge-slight to Duke, based on team trends.
INDIANA at IOWA....Hawkeyes have covered 5 of last 7 in series.
Tech edge-slight to Iowa, Purdue, based on series trends.

PURDUE at WISCONSIN...Dog team is 6-2 vs. line in Purdue
games to date (Boilermakers 3-1 in role). Bielema only 1-3 vs. line as
home chalk TY, now 3-6 vs. spread at Camp Randall since LY. Tech
edge-Purdue, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at WAKE FOREST...Canes have won and
covered all 3 meetings since ‘04. Grobe 8-4 as home dog since ‘04
but only 5-6 vs. line at home since LY. Canes 7-2 vs. spread as
visitor since LY (2-1 TY) Tech edge-slight to Miami, based on
recent trends.

NC STATE at FLORIDA STATE...NCS has covered last 4
meetings and is 7-0-1 last 8 vs. number against Noles. But Wolf
Pack no covers last 3 in ‘09 and just 1-4 vs. number this season.
FSU, however, 0-3 vs. line at home TY and no covers last 5 at Doak
Campbell. Tech edge-NCS, based on series trends.

AKRON at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NIU 1-1 as Dekalb chalk TY
but note 2-10 spread mark in role since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to
Akron, based on NIU home chalk woes.

NEW MEXICO STATE at OHIO STATE...Tressel has actually
covered last 4 at Big Horseshoe TY but is just 1-5 last 6 as home
chalk vs. non-conference foes. Tech edge-slight to NMSU, based
on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at VANDERBILT...Dores have now dropped last
5 vs. number at home, and are just 4-8 last 12 on board since mid ‘08.
Bobby J also just 5-7 as home dog since ‘06 despite better mark in
role on road. Paul Johnson has now covered his last 5 TY and is 13-
6 vs. line since arriving at GT LY. Tech edge-GT, based on recent
trends.

IOWA STATE at TEXAS A&M...“Cyclonics” have covered 4 of
their last 5. ISU has actually covered last 5 tries since late LY as true
visitor (not counting Arrowhead game vs. KSU). Tech edge-ISU,
based on team trends.

OLE MISS at AUBURN...Ole Miss has covered last 3 in series.
Rebs still faring okay on road TY (2-1 vs. line) and now 9-2 vs. line
last 11 away. Auburn cooling a bit with losses and non-covers last 3
and 4 of last 5 TY. Tech edge-Ole Miss, based on series and team
trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at ARKANSAS...Ugh! Eagles 2-7 vs. line
last 9 vs. non-league on road. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on EMU
negatives.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at KENT STATE...WMU only 2-7 vs.
number its last 9 as visiting chalk. Tech edge-slight to Kent State,
based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at BAYLOR...Bo Pelini still 6-1 vs. line on road since
LY. Pelini also 3-0 as road chalk since LY. Baylor 1-4 last 5 vs. line
as fortunes take a downturn after Briles’ 9-3 start vs. line. Tech
edge-Nebraska, based on team trends.

SMU at TULSA...SMU has held surprising edge in series, covering
last 5 meetings. Although Todd Graham has now covered 7 of last 8
at home. Tech edge-slight to SMU, based on series trends.

UAB at UTEP... UTEP staying formful, 1-2 as chalk TY and now 3-
16 last 19 as chalk. Blazers, however, no covers first 3 as road dog
TY. Tech edge-slight to UAB, based on extended UTEP chalk
woes.

SAN JOSE STATE at BOISE STATE...SJSU on a slide, 1-9 vs.
line last 10 on board. Broncos have covered first 2 on blue carpet TY
and now 20-9 vs. line last 29, also 7-2-1 last 10 laying 20 or more on blue
carpet. Tech edge-Boise, based on team trends.

GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA (at Jacksonville)...Gators have actually
covered just one of last five meetings (1-3-1). Tech edge-slight to
Georgia, based on series trends.

TOLEDO at MIAMI-OHIO...RedHawks now on 7-16 spread run
since late ‘07. Tech edge-Toledo, based on Miami woes.

UCLA at OREGON STATE...Bruins just 5-8 vs. line last 13 as
visitor. Beavs 8-3 vs. line at home from October onward since ‘06
and 37-23 overall vs. line last 60 on board. Tech edge-OSU, based
on team trends.

TEMPLE at NAVY...Owls have covered last 2 and 5 of last 6
meetings since ‘01. Temple 7-2 vs. line last 8 as dog. Tech edgeslight
to Temple, based on team trends.

CAL at ARIZONA STATE...Tedford has held edge over ASU, 5-1
SU and vs. line against Sun Devils. Erickson only 3-7 as dog since
‘07, 0-3 as home dog since arriving at ASU. Tech edge-slight to
Cal, based on series trends.

MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS...Zook 1-5 vs. line TY, 1-8 last 9 on board.
Tech edge-Michigan, based on Illinois woes.

MISSOURI at COLORADO...Tigers dominant lately, winning and
covering last three, including combined 113-10 score the last two!
Tigers, however, only 4-11 vs. line last 15 on board since mid ‘08.
Tech edge-slight to Colorado, based on recent trends.

KANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA...Bill Snyder 0-3 vs. line as
visitor TY. Stoops 8-3 vs. line last 11 at Norman. Tech edge-slight
to OU, based on team trends.

TEXAS at OKLAHOMA STATE...Gundy only 2-5 last 7 as dog but is
7-3 vs. line last 10 at Stillwater. Mack, however, only 4-8-1 last 13 on
board since mid ‘08. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

HAWAII at NEVADA...Wolf Pack has covered last 4 in Reno vs.
Leahey. Home team also 8-1 vs. line in series since Pack joined
WAC in 2000. Ault now 18-3 vs. line as Reno chalk since ‘04. Pack 10-
2 as DD chalk that span as well. Leahey now no wins or covers last 4 TY.
Tech edge-Nevada, based on team and series trends.

UNLV at TCU...Frogs have administered fierce beatings to Rebs
the last two years and have won and covered both meetings at Fort
Worth big since joining MWC in ‘05. Since joining MWC, Frogs have
covered 11 of last 12 and 15 of last 17 as host in league play. Tech
edge-TCU, based on team and series trends.

AIR FORCE at COLORADO STATE...Falcs have routed CSU the
past two years. If AFA favored note 4-1 road chalk mark under
Calhoun. Tech edge-slight to CSU, based on home mark.

PENN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Dog team is 6-0 in Cat
games TY, and Fitzgerald 7-2 vs. line as “short” since LY. Tech
edge-NU, based on team trends.

LA TECH at IDAHO...Ugh! Vandals 7-1 vs. line TY. LT on 1-10-
1 spread run last 12 as visitor. Tech edge-Idaho, based on recent
trends.

UTAH STATE at FRESNO STATE...Utags have played Fresno
tough, covering last 4 meetings. Pat Hill just 2-8 vs. spread last 10
at Dog House. Utags on 9-1-1 spread run their last 11 on board.
Tech edge-USU, based on team and series trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...UK has covered 6 of last 8
meetings between these “crossover” SEC rivals. Tech edge-slight
to UK, based on recent trends.

KANSAS at TEXAS TECH...Mangino 7-3 as road dog since ‘06
and 13-6 vs. line away that span, also 6-1 last 7 in revenge. Tech
edge-slight to KU, based on recent trends.

NEW MEXICO at SAN DIEGO STATE...Lobos 1-6 vs. line TY, 1-
8 vs. number last 9 since late ‘08, also 3-9 vs. line last 12 away. Hoke
2-0-1 vs. line last 3 TY and note solid 7-4 home chalk mark at Ball State
the last 3 years. Tech edge-SDS, based on Lobo woes.

WASHINGTON STATE vs. NOTRE DAME (at San Antonio)...Weis
no covers last 5 as chalk TY and he’s just 4-11 last 15 laying DD.
WSU has actually covered 8 of last 11 on board! Tech edge-WSU,
based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at TENNESSEE...Vols have only covered 1
of last 5 (1-3-1 vs. line) as host vs. SC. Spurrier 3-0 as dog this
season. Tech edge-SC, based on team and series trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at OREGON...Ducks have covered last 3 at
home TY and 5 straight overall, now 16-8 last 24 vs. line at Autzen
Stadium. Pete only 1-5 vs. line last 5 TY and 4-8 last 12 since late
‘08. Pete 7-15 vs. spread last 22 on Pac-10 trail. Tech edge-
Oregon, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at HOUSTON...USM 5-2 vs. line last 7 as dog
and 10-4 vs. number last 14 away from home. Tech edge-slight to
USM, based on team trends.

WYOMING at UTAH...Wyo has covered last 4 and 5 of last 6 TY
for Christensen. Tech edge-slight to Wyo, based on recent
trends.

TULANE at LSU...Wave has actually covered the last two years
vs. nearby foe despite losing each game by 25 points. Tech edgeslight
to Tulane, based on series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at MINNESOTA...If MSU chalk note 4-0 mark
on road in role since LY. Gophers no covers last 5 as dog (0-3 TY).
Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at LOUISVILLE...‘Ville 10-18 vs. line under
Kragthorpe, 4-9 as chalk. Tech edge-ASU, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...All ULL, which
has won and covered last 4 meetings, all by DD margins. Tech
edge-ULL, based on series trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at NORTH TEXAS...WKU 1-7 vs. line last
8 vs. Belt teams. Tech edge-slight to UNT, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Blue Raiders
just 1-5-1 vs. line last 7 on Belt trail. Tech edge-slight to FAU,
based on MTSU road woes.

UL-MONROE at TROY...ULM has played Troy tough, covering 4
of last 5 and winning 2 of last 4. Tech edge-ULM, based on team
trends.

MARSHALL at UCF (Sunday, November 2)...Herd on nice uptick
with 5 covers last 6 in ‘09. Tech edge-slight to Marshall, based on
recent trends.

NFL

DENVER at BALTIMORE...Broncos 6-0 SU and vs. line, also
“under” 5-1 first 6, “under” 13-5 last 18 since early ‘08. Ravens 8-3
vs. line at home for John Harbaugh, also “under” 7-4 as home since
LY. Tech edge-Broncos and “under,” based on team and
“totals” trends.

CLEVELAND at CHICAGO...Lovie “over” 22-7 last 29 at Soldier
Field. Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on Lovie’s home
“totals” mark.

HOUSTON at BUFFALO...Jauron just 3-8 vs. line last 11 at
Orchard Park. Tech edge-Texans, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY...Last 3 and 4 of last 5 “over” in
series. Vikes “over” 5-2 TY and “over” 9-4 last 13 away, Pack “over”
21-10 last 31. Tech edge-“Over,” based on team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at INDIANAPOLIS...Indy has covered five
straight since opener and currently is on 15-game SU reg.-season
win streak. Singletary, however, 9-3-2 last 14 vs. line. Tech edgeslight
to 49ers, based on team trends.

MIAMI at NY JETS...Dolphins have covered last 2 meetings after
Jets were 9-0-1 vs. number previous 10 meetings. Tech edge-slight
to Dolphins, based on recent trends.

ST. LOUIS at DETROIT...Lions 2-5 in rare chalk role since ‘06.
Lions also “over” 21-9 last 30 (though just 3-3 TY). Tech edgeslight
to Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at DALLAS...Seattle “over” 8-4 last 12 away. Tech
edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO...Ugh! Raiders got the cover in opener
vs. Norv after Bolts had covered previous 4 and 11 of previous 12 in
series. “Overs” 3-0-1 last 4 meetings after “under” previous 6. Tech
edge-Chargers, based on extended series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE... Titans 0-6 SU and no covers
last 5. Jags also “under” 7-3 last 10 away. Tech edge-slight to
Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CAROLINA at ARIZONA...John Fox 0-2 as road dog TY and now
2-9 last 11 in once-profitable role. Cards “under” 3-0 at home TY
although still “over” 19-10 as host since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to Cards
and “over,” based on recent team and extended “totals” trends.

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA...Giants 30-11 last 41 on board
since early ‘07. “Unders” 5 of last 6 in series. Giants have covered
last 4 at Linc; road team 7-1 vs. line last 8 in series, though Andy Reid
8-3 vs. line last 11 at home. Tech edge-Giants and slight to
“under,” based on series and team trends.

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (Monday, November 2)...Saints
wins and covers in first 6 TY. “Overs” last 3 in series, Saints “over”
13-3 last 16 at Superdome. Falcs only 4-7 as road dog for Mike Smith
since LY. Tech edge-Saints and “over,” based on team and
series “totals” trends

THE RED SHEET

NEVADA 58 - Hawaii 17 - (4:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 24, and is still minus 24. Oh, what an
offense! Led by the spectacular Kaepernick, who does it both overland (230 RYs last week:
15.3 ypr) & overhead, this squad just continues to roll. Accompanied by the likes of Taua &
Lippincott (7.0 & 6.7 ypr, respectively, for the year), they rank #1 in the nation in rushing, but
unlike such overland powers as Navy, AirForce, etc, they also do it thru the air. As our
subscribers know, we've been on 'em in their last 3 hosters, & have enjoyed their 56.3 ppg
output in those games. 'Bows hurting at QB, & their "D" won't contain 'em.
RATING: NEVADA 89

Nebraska 34 - BAYLOR 10 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Nebraska minus 12½, and is still minus 12½. This is
not the best of times for the fast-falling Bears to be taking on the 'Huskers, namely off a pair
of home stinkers, in which they experienced as incredible 10-0 TO deficit, & that includes
EIGHT coughups in their 9-7 loss to IowaSt last week, with FOUR inside the Cyclone 5. As
Buffalo RB Thurman Thomas said after the Bills were pummeled by Dallas in the '92 Super
Bowl, "You can't beat a high school team with 7 turnovers". 'Huskers have Oklahoma up
next, but fully focused here. Bears are simply anemic without Griffin.
RATING: NEBRASKA 89

TCU 65 - Unlv 13 - (4:00) -- Line opened at TCU minus 32½, and is now minus 33. This team has simply
been magnificent in recent seasons, with this year's squad just extending the excellence. A
week ago, they traveled to take on the BYU Cougars, one of the most explosive teams in the
nation (7th in scoring, at 39 ppg), & simply applied a 38-7 drubbing (28½ pt cover). Their
only spread misses this year have come by a scant 3½ pts, & by 7, when they gave up a
meaningless TD at AirForce in the final minute. The Rebels are in off snapping a 20 game
conference road losing streak. Celebration short-lived, as they start another one.
RATING: TCU 88

OREGON STATE 41 - Ucla 17 - (4:00) -- Line opened at OregonSt minus 8½, and is still minus 8½. We
know that it might not seem the best of times to be backing the Beavers, who are in off a
bruising 42-26 loss to USC. Couple it with the fact that Jacquizz hurt his ankle in that loss,
& it seems a nice spot for their opponent. Forget it. He is expected to be just fine, & OSU
has continually proven its bounceback ability, most recently in upset of ArizSt, directly on
heels of nailbiting loss to Arizona. QB Canfield off a 329-yd, 3-TD showing vs Troy, so
Beavs can kill you either way. Bruins own land's 105th "0", & on a 4-game slide.
RATING: OREGON STATE 88

SAN DIEGO STATE 51 - New Mexico 17 - (7:30) -- Line opened at SanDiegoSt minus 19, and is now minus
17. We gave this one a long look as a Pointwise Rated Play, but decided to table it, because
of the fact that the chalk role is a bit foreign to these Aztecs (only 3rd such designation over
the last 3 years), with many a squad failing to properly grasp the situation. Case in point:
SDSt's 17½ pt spread loss to Idaho, in its only other favorite setup. But QB Lindley is in off
smoking ColoradoSt, with a 459-PY, 6-TD display in 21½ pt cover, & that was in FortCollins.
Lobos on 11-game losing skid, & own worst offense in the land.
RATING: SAN DIEGO STATE 88

NEW ORLEANS 41 - Atlanta 24 - (8:35 Monday - ESPN) -- Line opened at NewOrleans minus 8½, and is
still minus 8½. Is there really any other way to go? The Saints own one of the most explosive
offenses in the history of the NFL, riding that unit to a perfect 6-0 record, both SU & ATS.
But who have they played? Try a 48-22 win at Philadelphia, and a 48-27 rout of the Giants,
whose previously near-invincible road persona was somewhat shattered (34 1st half pts). A
wk ago, Brees was a terrible 1/3, but nonetheless, a 46-34 win, after trailing 24-3. Falcons
have lost to just the Pats & Cowboys, but that gives us value here.
RATING: NEW ORLEANS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): PennSt, Iowa, MichiganSt, FlaSt , Duke - NFL: Chicago, Houston, Dallas

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
OREGON STATE over Ucla RATING: 1
PENN STATE over Northwestern RATING: 1
IDAHO over Louisiana Tech RATING: 2
FRESNO STATE over Utah State RATING: 3
NEVADA over Hawaii RATING: 4
FLORIDA STATE over No Carolina St RATING: 4
BOISE STATE over San Jose State RATING: 5
DUKE over Virginia RATING: 5

THURSDAY
VIRGINIA TECH 44 - North Carolina 13 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Hokes rested off loss
to GaTech, in which they allowed 309 RYs, after holding previous 3 foes to 59, 38,
& 45. But note Tech at +65½ ATS at home TY, & covering last 2 HGs by 26½ &
20½. Tars off blowing 18-pt lead, & were at 60 RYpg in LGs previously. Hokies!

FRIDAY

West Virginia 24 - SOUTH FLORIDA 20- (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Third of four killers
for Bulls, & with their 75-31 pt deficit in 1st two encounters (Daniels: 4 INTs, & 8
sacks), hard to pull their lever here. And check 174-yd deficit at Pitt. Mountie RB
Devine at 912 RYs (6.7 ypr) so far, but no rushing TDs for WV last 3 vs the Bulls.

SATURDAY

CONNECTICUT 31 - Rutgers 17 - (12:00) -- Check 501-387 yd edge for UConn
in loss to WVa, with QB Endres a school-high 378 yds. All 3 losses have come
after failing to hold late leads. Huskies 6-0-1 ATS by 61½ pts. Knights solid at
rushing "D", & visitor is 5-0 ATS by 64½ pts in RU games, but 80th ranked "O".

Cincinnati 34 - SYRACUSE 20 - (12:00) -- No Pike for 'Cats, but Collaros filling
in nicely (15-of-17 vs L'Ville) & Cincy sports nation's #2 scoring "O". But UConn
& WVa are directly on deck, & this is a dog series. Improved 'Cuse has been
able to hang tough, with self-destruction, their main culprit. We're not involved.

Central Michigan 31 - BOSTON COLLEGE 30 - (3:30) -- Seven straight wins
for Chips, who are just 3 pts from covering all 7. LeFevour (70%) now at 16/4.
Eagles must regroup off late loss to NoDame, as Harris came from 264 RYs to
just 38. Note host at +93 pts ATS in BC's last 8 games. Should be a true war.

BALL STATE 33 - Ohio U 30 - (12:00) -- Amazing stat as BSt's Lewis & Sykes
had 301 & 203 RYs in win over Eastern, thereby snapping 8-game Card slide
(no cover). Ohio LW: minus 9 RYs, with only TD coming in final 2:18. Upset!

Duke 33 - VIRGINIA 17 - (3:30) -- How about Imp QB Lewis with 1,189 PYs past
3 games, as Devils are +44 pts ATS in those 3. And he's a nice 14/3 for the
season. Cavs at just 15 ppg & 66 RYpg in ACC play (200 ypg & 10 FDpg past
2 wks). Throw in GaTech/Miami SW, as well as guest's 9-2 line log in Va gms.

IOWA 41 - Indiana 10 - (12:00) -- Time for 7th-ranked Hawkeyes to explode. Got
by MichSt on final play, at just 95 RYpg last 3, & in revenge SW. But 8-0 for 1st
time, & Indy sinking fast. Hoosiers blew 28-3 lead at N'Western, & have 29-16,
29-13 FD deficits last 2 RGs. And they lost their previous RG by 33 pts ATS.

WISCONSIN 31 - Purdue 20 - (12:00) -- Two straight wins for Boilers, (1st time
TY), allowing 12 & 15 FDs. Have topped 170 RYs just twice, & QB Elliott not
dependable (14/10). Rested Badgers have allowed 28 ppg last 10 LGs, but
note ceding just 15, 8, 16 FDs last 3 wks, & 90, 57, 97, 65 RYs in BigTen play.

Miami 33 - WAKE FOREST 22 - (3:30) -- 'Canes dropped 10 spots in rankings
after OT loss to Clemson. Finally some overland production, as QB Harris is
now at just 15/13 (3 more picks LW). Wake run game disappearing, & in off
allowing 338 RYs. UM has allowed 41, 38, 34, 31 pts last 4 ACC RGs. Not hr.

FLORIDA STATE 48 - North Carolina State 24 - (12:00) -- 'Pack's '08 magic
has worn off. Allowing 40.5 ppg last 4 outings, & has been outscored 101-48
last 2 tilts, while losing ATS by 36 & 29½ pts. 'Noles may have turned corner
with brilliant comeback vs NC, behind Ponder's 33-of-40 exhibition. Continue.

NO ILLINOIS 34- Akron 10 - (12:00) -- Five straight losses for Zips. Lost without
Jacquemain, with only TDs LW on 12-yd drive, & 98-yd KO return (234-RY
deficit). NIU can't throw, but decent running gm, & "D" at 11 ppg 13 of last 17.

OHIO STATE 49 - New Mexico State 0 - (12:00) -- Bucks not down for long (220
yd edge vs Minny) & this is whatever they want it to be. Ags ceding 35 ppg last
30 LGs, & own worst "O" in land. Call third whitewashing for OSU this season.

Georgia Tech 27 - VANDERBILT 10 - (7:30) -- Jackets cooking! Five straight
wins & covers, with 401, 309, 362 RYs last 3. Check Dwyer & Nesbitt at 718
& 707 RYs, respectively. But they've allowed 25 ppg in 11 of last 13 LGs, so
bit of a chink. However, that's hardly applicable vs these 'Dores: 10 ppg last 4.

Iowa State 34 - TEXAS A&M 31 - (3:30) -- Ags: from a 53½-pt spread loss to a
44-pt cover, as well from a minus 13 RY output, to 321 RYs, all in the course of
a single week. Still allowing 44 ppg last 4. Cycs recipients of 8 giveaways in
luckout at Neb, snapping 15-gm Big12 road drought. Robinson & Arnaud back?

Mississippi 30 - AUBURN 27 - (12:20) -- Floor has fallen out for Tigers, whose
5-0 start now stands at 5-3, with 23, 20½, 13½ spread setbacks, as well. And
just 112 RYs in loss to LSU (were at 247). Rebs getting McCluster into "O", &
Snead in off career-best 332 PYs. And check OleMiss "D": 180-yd deficit at
Stanford, but Card home Giant. If TOs (Wise Points) don't do 'em in. ASt call.

Michigan 30 - ILLINOIS 17 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Wolves outclassed by PennSt in
nearly 150-yd deficit, but were at 33 ppg in LGs before that setback, altho the
nailbiter is the norm in their games. Five straight losses for Illini (all by double
digits), topping 17 pts in just 1 of its last 9 LGs. Juice in-&-out. We steer clear.

COLORADO 24 - Missouri 22 - (1:30) -- Let's see. The Tigers have taken last 2
from Buffs by combined 113-10 score. But Mizzou slipping by the week. Note
a 101-36 pt deficit past 3 wks, & running for just 78, 91, 68, 74 yds last 4 tilts.
And QB Gabbert gimpy. Buffs: 65 RYpg in current 5-game slide. Flip a coin.

OKLAHOMA 58 - Kansas State 17 - (7:00) -- 'Cats sit atop Big12North, with an
impressive 58-6 first half pt edge last 2 wks, but that all comes to an end with
4-game suicide run, beginning with Okies. KSt has allowed 53 ppg in its last
3 conf RGs, & Sooners own 177-20 pt edge in their 4 wins TY. This over early.

Texas 44 - OKLAHOMA STATE 20 - (8:00) -- Five straight wins for 'Pokes - last
4 without Hunter & Bryant. Check Robinson a sensational 23-of-27 (3/0) at
Baylor. Steer QB McCoy: from 3.3 yds per pass vs Okies, to 26-of-31 & 3 TDs
in 41-7 rout of Mizzou. 'Horn "D": 7, 11, 11 FDs 3 of last 4 gms. Keep it going.

ADDED GAMES

LOUISVILLE 28 - Arkansas St 20 La-Lafayette 23 - FLA INT'NAL 17

NORTH TEXAS 41 - Western Ky 26 Mid Tenn St 44 - FLA ATLANTIC 42

TROY 49 - La-Monroe 16

NEVADA 54 - Hawaii 17 - (4:00) -- We keep riding this horse. 'Pack with nearly
400-RY edge vs previously line perfect Idaho. Kaepernick: 230 yds (15.3 ypr).
'Bow containment chances bleak, with 109th run "D". And are hurting at QB.

TCU 62 - Unlv 13 - (4:00) -- Frogs magnificent. Check ceding just 7 pts at BYU
(Coogs entered at 39 ppg). Now +178½ pts ATS last 23. Rebs snapped 20
gm conf road losing skein at NewMex LW, with solid balance. Forget that here!

COLORADO STATE 17 - Air Force 13 - (4:00) -- Rams in off seeing 14-0 lead
dissolve into 42-28 setback, being riddled for 459 PYs. That snapped 8-0 ATS
run as hosts. AF did everything at Utah but win: 20-8 FD, 254-100 RY edges,
but OT setback. At just 14 ppg "O' last 4, altho "D" allowing only 13.3 ppg TY.

Penn State 38 - NORTHWESTERN 13 - (4:30 - ESPN2) -- Domination! That's
the word for Nits, who have a 472-yd edge in their last 2 games, & in off holding
Michigan's 37 ppg "O" to mere 10 pts. Fourth-ranked "D", Clark, Royster, etc.
Dog 10-0 ATS in 'Cat gms, but NW at just 98 RYpg in Big10. Kafka not enuff.

IDAHO 33 - Louisiana Tech 24 - (5:00) -- Vandal 7-gm ATS run snapped, but
note #15 run "D" before pulverization at Nevada. Still have Enderle (342 PYs,
4 TDs LW), & previous balance. Host now 16-2 ATS in Tech contests. Again.

FRESNO STATE 44 - Utah State 21 - (5:00) -- Loved those 34 unanswered pts
'Dogs put on board LW. Another 157 RYs for Mathews (1,131 yds, 9 TDs, 7.3
ypr). Ags ceding 38 ppg last 7 RGs, rank 110th in total "D". Won't contain 'em.

Mississippi State 24 - KENTUCKY 20 - (7:00) -- 'Cats outstatted by Monroe, &
rank 85th in total "O", so check TDs on punt & INT returns LW. But visitor is
+45½ pts ATS in UK games TY. 'Dogs in Gator/'Bama SW, but clicking at 26.3
ppg last 6 LGs, & 202 RYpg last 4 outings. However QB Lee (3/9) a concern.

TEXAS TECH 45 - Kansas 27 - (3:30) -- From a 31½ pt cover to a 44 pt ATS loss
for Raiders, with 5 TOs vs A&M, & Potts replaced by Dodge (no Sheffield).
Jays just don't have it, with Reesing in off 3-INT showing in loss to Oklahoma
(7 TY). And note KU at 61 RYpg in Big12 play. Certainly can't trust either one.

SAN DIEGO STATE 51 - New Mexico 20 - (7:30) -- Not much of a running game
for Aztecs, but check QB Lindley LW: career-high 459 PYs & 6 TD passes (15
to Sampson: 257 yds). Eleven straight losses for Lobos, ceding 42 ppg away.

Notre Dame 47 - Washington State 17 - (7:30 - NBC - @ San Antonio) -- Six
straight nailbiters for Irish, who would be toast without Clausen (#2 ranked QB
(16/2 & 65%), as they're allowing 28.2 ppg in last 6 outings. Coogs: #119 "O",
#118 "D", & 820-223 pt deficit in LGs since start of '08. QB Tuel: 357 PYs LW.

TENNESSEE 20 - South Carolina 10 - (7:45) -- That Vol "D" has allowed only
16.2 ppg in last 10 LGs, & UT is +79½ pts ATS in its last 9 contests, covering
last HG by 25 pts. 'Cocks also field top-notch "D", but that Carolina "O" ranks
78th (just 98 RYpg in SEC play), with last 3 wins in LGs by 6, 2, & 4 pts. Vols!

OREGON 27 - So California 23 - (8:00) -- Trojans hardly overwhelming of late.
Off 15-pt ATS setback, & a 53-yd deficit vs OregSt. But solidly balanced at 199
RYpg & 242 PYpg. Ducks have won last 6, covering last 5 by 84 pts, & last 2
hosters by 56 pts! Masoli back, & check James at 6.7 ypr for season. Shootout.

HOUSTON 38 - So Mississippi 34 - (1:00) -- Quite an "O" (#1), but also quite a
"D" (#111) for Coogs. Needed a 3-0 TO edge, along with a KO return for 6½ pt
cover vs SMU. Eagles have solid "D" advantage, & can move it behind Young.

UTAH 24 - Wyoming 13 - (8:00) -- Utes now at 20-1, 27-2 SU, but nowhere near
'08 version, as their only covers are by 2, 4½ pts, with 20-8 FD & 38:57-21:03
time deficits in OT win over AF just the latest. Cowboys have covered 4 straight,
but those came vs foes with a combined 9-20 log. Can't get excited either way.

LSU 41 - Tulane 13 - (8:00) -- Score in this series is normally along these lines,
so why not again? Tiger QB Jefferson came from his worst game, to his career
best, in nearly doubling Auburn yardage. Bengals entered that one with 113th
ranked "O", by the way. Wave minus 242 pts ATS last 15 games. Near spot.

Michigan State 34 - MINNESOTA 17 - (8:00) -- Spartans have to be seething off
losing to Iowa on final play. Solid "D", & overhead game, altho run "O" still bit of
a problem. Gophers struggling, with 15, 14, 7, & 17 FDs past 4 games. Rank
105th in rushing, QB Weber 6/11 for season, & minus 91½ pt ATS last 13 tilts.

SUNDAY

CENTRAL FLORIDA 30- Marshall 22 - (8:15 - ESPN) -- Loved 49-7 Knight win
(32-pt cover) LW (Top Phone Play). UCF nicely balanced, with 12th ranked run
"D". Herd's Marshall has five 100 RY gms, & check QB Anderson's 315 PYs LW.

TUESDAY

BUFFALO 38 - Bowling Green 34 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Bulls' Maynard (14/11) bit
undependable, but RB Nduka (172 yds LW, 9.6 ypr) isn't. Should raise havoc vs
Falcs, who have 1,463-329 RY deficit last 6. But Sheehan at 1,222 PYs last 3.

POINTWISE

NFL KEY RELEASES

CHICAGO over Cleveland RATING: 2
HOUSTON over Buffalo RATING: 3
CAROLINA over Arizona RATING: 4
NEW YORK JETS over Miami RATING: 4
GREEN BAY over Minnesota RATING: 5

BALTIMORE 20 - Denver 19 - (1:00) -- Both squads have had an extra week to
prepare for this battle, which should be nothing short of an all-out war. The
Broncos, of course, are the most improved team in the NFL, especially on "D",
where they rank 2nd overall, 4th against the run, & 1st in scoring. The Ravens,
who finished 2nd on "D" in '08, find themselves at #17, having allowed >23 pts
4-of-6, after just 4 such showings in 19 games LY. Broncs, Saints, & Colts are
the only perfect squads in the NFL, with Denver "D" at 11 ppg. Denver 6-0
ATS TY, & 7-1 ATS vs AFC North. Ravens 6-1 off bye, but brutal affair to wire.

CHICAGO 34 - Cleveland 6 - (1:00) -- Bears totally embarrassed in 45-10 loss
at Cincy, with 30-15 FD & 448-279 TY deficits. Obviously, the aftereffects of
previous draining loss to Atlanta. Another 3 INTs for Cutler, & now 11/10 for
the season. But perfect spot to regain health, as Browns the pits: 1-12 SU,
losing 10 of last 11 by 19 ppg. And check managing 6 pts or less in 4 of their
last 6 games, while averaging 8.8 ppg in their last 13 outings. Cleveland 6-12
ATS at the NFC, while Chicago is 20-7 ATS hosting the AFC, as well as 18-6
ATS at home off a DD road loss. And the chalk is 10-2 ATS in Bear contests.

Houston 23 - BUFFALO 13 - (1:00) -- What do you know, the Bills have won 2
straight RGs for the first time since '07, but they've hardly done it in style, as
they have an 839-463 yd deficit in those 2, as well as a 20-9 FD deficit in their
latest win. They've done it with no less than 9 INTs in those 2, with 17 of their
20 pts at Carolina thanks to the TO. Can they continue? Maybe, but worth
noting that they're averaging just 5 ppg in their last 2 HGs. So rough sledding
vs the Texans, who've allowed just 45, 44, 46, & 59 RYs in their last 4 games,
& Schaub at 16/5 with 2,074 yds. Visitor 12-2 ATS in Buffalo contests. Again.

GREEN BAY 34 - Minnesota 24 - (1:00) -- One of the most highly anticipated
sporting events of all time! Brett Favre returns to GreenBay. What more can
be said, especially with both squads battling for the top spot in the AFC North,
& recently off a bruising Monday Night contest. Pack came in nicely the past
2 wks for us as our top NFL play (26-0, 31-3). No sacks for Rodgers LW, after
25 previously, & note 148 RYs for Grant. Vikes off 1st loss, thanks to deflected
INT, with 344 PYs from Brett. He is 12/3 for the season. Rodgers: 11/2. The
Pack is 8-1 ATS at home off a DD win, & host 3-0 ATS in Packer division gms.

INDIANAPOLIS 27 - SanFrancisco 19 - (1:00) -- Sure seems foolish in calling
for a mere 8-pt Colt win, in light of the fact that they've reeled off 14 straight
regular season wins, taking their last 4 all by at least 17 pts (138-42 pt edge).
Manning? Try 15/4 for the season & 72.6% (3/0 LW). Niners in off turning a
21-0 halftime deficit, into a hard fought 24-21 loss, as the insertion of Smith at
QB (206 PYs) (3/1) sparked that comeback. So note last 6 Frisco RGs being
decided by 7, 5, 1, 4, 3, & 3 pts SU, & Niners are just 11 pts from 11-1 ATS
run. Plus, the visitor has covered 11-4 in last 15 Indy regular season contests.

NEW YORK JETS 30 - Miami 17 - (1:00) -- Yes, we know that the Jets couldn't
stop the "Wildcat" in their Monday meeting just 3 weeks ago, as they went
down in the final 0:06 of that most entertaining match. Thus, a quick shot at
revenge, with LW's wipeout of the Raiders serving as a perfect warmup. Check
NY with an impressive 316 & 318 RYs in its last 2 games, with Jones motoring
for 331 of those yds. Now, that's the way to stop a 3-game slide. First RG for
Miami since Sept, so note Fish at just 12 ppg in last 4 regular season guest
shots. Miami 2-7 ATS at NY, & in off blowing 24-3 lead. Definite revenge call.

DETROIT 27 - St Louis 17 - (1:00) -- Another battle of rookie head coaches.
Well, the Lions snapped their 19-gm losing skein earlier TY, & have a chance
to return the favor, as the hapless Rams are now at 0-17 SU. Not just that, but
StLouis has no rushing TDs, is averaging 8.6 ppg this season, has a 211-60 pt
deficit this year, as well as a 475-184 pt deficit in its last 16 outings. Futility!
Lions no slouches, themselves, allowing 33 ppg in their last 28 tilts, & standing
at 1-21 & 2-28 SU. Detroit is 13-20 ATS as a HF, but StLouis is 12-31 ATS off
a SU/ATS setback. Nothing but negatives, but simply cannot back the Rams.

DALLAS 33 - Seattle 17 - (1:00) -- Second meeting for these 2 since botched
PAT by Romo in '06 Cowboys' '06 playoff loss to the Seahawks, with Dallas
nailing sweet revenge in LY's 34-9 wipeout, in which the 'Boys enjoyed a 125
yd edge. So that's by the books, right? Or is it? Fact is that the Cowboys are
still one of the steadiest squads in the NFL, & are only a couple of plays from
being spotless. Romo has thrown for >250 yds in 5 of 6 games, & Dallas ranks
2nd in the league on "O". Seahawks last 2 games: plus 40 pts, minus 27 pts
ATS. Did anyone say "inconsistent"? 'Boys 15-2 ATS as HFs vs losing teams.

SAN DIEGO 36 - Oakland 6 - (4:05) -- Believe us, we hate backing division favs
of this magnitude, but the Raiders, save for an occasional shocking blip (upset
of Philly), are at rock bottom. Experienced quick comeuppance in pummeling
at the hands of the Jets, with Russell turning it over in 3 of Oakland's first 4
possessions. Now at 7 ppg over last 6 outings, & check a 73-13 pt deficit in
last 2 RGs. The Chargers have Giants, Eagles, & Broncos on deck, so can't
afford any slipup here. SanDiego is 10-0 ATS off a DD SU/ATS win vs a foe off
a DD SU loss, as well as 11-2 ATS in this series of late. We lay the huge spot.

Jacksonville 27 - TENNESSEE 24 - (4:05) -- Time for the Titans to end all of this
foolishness, or is it? Both had LW off, so chance for Tennessee to regroup off
seemingly impossible start. Check allowing 37 ppg over its last 5 outings, & a
minus 90½ pt ATS mark in its last 3 contests. Offensively? Okay: 9 ppg in 7
of Titans' 8 contests. Ranking 31st on "D" (32nd in scoring) seems otherworld,
but that's the case. So no picnic in attempting to stop the bleeding. Jags took
first meeting by a 37-17 score, with a 442-379 yd edge, so revenge is the name
of the game, right? Maybe, but note Jags' 14-4 ATS log as division road dogs.

ARIZONA 23 - Carolina 20 - (4:15) -- These 2 met twice LY, with Carolina host in
each: a 27-24 regular season Panther win, with a 113-50 RY edge; and a 33-13
Card playoff win, with a 145-75 RY advantage. Not only couldn't the Panthers
get their vaunted overland game in motion, but Delhomme accounting for an
incredible 6 giveaways. The dog is currently 9-1 ATS in Card games, with the
solo miss by a scant 1½ pts, & 'Zona is minus 33½ pt ATS at home TY. The
Panthers are in off 20-7 FD, 425-167 yd edges, but 20-9 loss. Delhomme: 13
INTs so far. Carolina 22-11 ATS off a SU chalk loss. Road dominance again.

PHILADELPHIA 27- New York Giants 26 - (4:15) -- Two straight losses for the
Giants, with 14-7 lead vs the Cards turning into 24-17 loss, despite a 40-yd
edge. Eli: 3 picks. And note Jacobs failing to reach 100 RYs in 10 straight
games. Thus, more of a burden on that "D", which was taken to the cleaners in
its last roadster, a 48-27 beating at NewOrleans. That one, by the way, pushed
the Giants' ATS road record to a still amazing 17-3. And the Eagles also paid
the price vs the Saints, namely a 48-22 home setback (without McNabb). The
Eagles took NY, 23-11 in LY's playoffs, but NY is 6-1 ATS in division off a loss.

MONDAY

NEW ORLEANS 41 - Atlanta 27 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 met at this venue on
Monday Night following Hurricane Katrina ('06), with the Saints (+4) taking it out
on the Falcons, 23-3. That outcome was near pre-ordained. And it's beginning to
seem as if all '09 Saint contests have that label attached. They are now at 37.9
ppg for the season. Are 12-0-1 ATS LA. Are 12-1 ATS as favorites. Are 10-1
ATS at home. Check a 24-3 deficit at Miami LW, as 6½ pt chalks, before not only
coming all the way back for the win, but covering on a pick-six in the final 1:53.
Brees LW: just 1/3, but still 14/5 for the season. Host is 7-0-1 ATS in Falcon
division games, to boot. No, we aren't about to buck this money machine. Saints!